2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part III

[eco's bones]

I think Schneider is a reach in the top 15 but after that he could go anytime. That said the Rangers have Trouba (an experienced and still fairly young player) to do what Schneider does and the Rangers don't have an RD need so to pick an RD he would have to be the flat out best player available and that's not going to be the case here. If Drysdale (no chance) or Sanderson an LD fell into our laps at 13/14 I think we'd have to think about it--otherwise we should be looking at forwards.

 

[Joey Bones]

a 50 point glue guy is a worthy pick at 13.

Thats probably Holloways top end.. Hes more likely to go the route of Trevor Lewis/Dwight King (not as 1 to 1 comparisons, but in terms of impact) than he is a Dustin Brown (which IMO is the absolute BEST CASE for him) or anyone of that ilk.

His future is more likely to be NHL 4th liner/AHL Bust than it is a middle 6 forward.

Based on what?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Based on what?

What I've seen.

There are too many things that I don't like in his game which I've mentioned in here. I'm not a believer in the offense as there really isn't anything there that stands out skill wise aside from his skating and a pretty good set of hands. His shot is okay and his passing/vision are honestly pretty ordinary and I'm probably being kind there. He plays a perimeter offensive game and he isn't skilled enough to get away with that. His hockey IQ is pretty overrated tbh, he works hard though.

I think a 25-30 point penalty killing winger (this is probably the part of his game I like the most) would be a pretty big ask for him. Even so, thats not a player I want at 13 with the talent that will be available. I'd understand taking a shot at him with the 2nd pick if you're confident that he can be that player with the potential to grow a bit more, but I don't think that would be overly realistic.

 

[UnSandvich]

What I've seen.

There are too many things that I don't like in his game which I've mentioned in here. I'm not a believer in the offense as there really isn't anything there that stands out skill wise aside from his skating and a pretty good set of hands. His shot is okay and his passing/vision are honestly pretty ordinary and I'm probably being kind there. He plays a perimeter offensive game and he isn't skilled enough to get away with that. His hockey IQ is pretty overrated tbh, he works hard though.

I think a 25-30 point penalty killing winger (this is probably the part of his game I like the most) would be a pretty big ask for him. Even so, thats not a player I want at 13 with the talent that will be available. I'd understand taking a shot at him with the 2nd pick if you're confident that he can be that player with the potential to grow a bit more, but I don't think that would be overly realistic.

So his upside is Fast at C in your estimation?

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Holloway was a scoring machine as a draft-1 in the AJHL and performed very well in all areas in several high-profile prospect events. Scoring in the CHL is a joke compared to the NCAA by almost two goals more per game.

Very high hockey IQ outside of some overaggressiveness with his physicality. He’s not a grinder or a checker and never looked like one at Wisconsin. If people are going to forgive Raymond’s season based on usage and point to his draft—1 production then the same should apply to Holloway.

Turcotte had 11 points in his last 19 games. Holloway had 10 in his last 19 except he wasnt given a consistent top-line role like Turcotte. Wisconsin’s team-wide issues are well known but all reports out of Madison is that Holloway was one of the few who kept his ego in check, made sacrifices for the sake of his linemates and was developing into a leader, which is why his role expanded in the second half.

Really dont know where this grinder/checker thing comes from. Kid’s a rare talent in this draft class and shouldn’t be marginalized because he chose a tougher path that will help him as a power forward. If he chose the WHL and was 30-30-60 as a top liner with consistent PP1 duties you’d get laughed at for calling him a checker.

Not saying he’s Brady Tkachuk but the same grinder/checker label was thrown his way in his draft year because of NCAA stats and look how that turned out.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Kakko’s motor was a huge issue this year. That won’t ever be the case with Holloway, and if you’ve watched him long enough he knows how to create time and space off the cycle or entries by wearing opponents down and making smart passes. His cross-ice vision is excellent. Only issue there is he can overhandle the puck but again, he was playing NCAA opponents who keep the boxes tighter and collapse and expand quicker to limit options. Zone entries are clean and he can power through or delay and peel back or cut inside. That’s hockey sense. But his passing, vision, and accuracy are all excellent, and he has soft hands for a power winger.

I don’t know. I’d love for him to be a Ranger. Kid can skate and is agile, crash the net, deliver huge hits, kill penalties, etc when he isnt scoring.

 

[Dan10900]

Kakko’s motor was a huge issue this year. That won’t ever be the case with Holloway, and if you’ve watched him long enough he knows how to create time and space off the cycle or entries by wearing opponents down and making smart passes. His cross-ice vision is excellent. Only issue there is he can overhandle the puck but again, he was playing NCAA opponents who keep the boxes tighter and collapse and expand quicker to limit options. Zone entries are clean and he can power through or delay and peel back or cut inside. That’s hockey sense. But his passing, vision, and accuracy are all excellent, and he has soft hands for a power winger.

I don’t know. I’d love for him to be a Ranger. Kid can skate and is agile, crash the net, deliver huge hits, kill penalties, etc when he isnt scoring.

he also played for Wisconsin who had some of the weirdest/worst/strangest/most painful to watch coaching decisions/systems in the NCAA

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Tkachuk and Holloway should never be uttered in the same sentence. Brady was nearly a PPG player and despite not putting up huge goal totals, he was a MENACE below the hashes.

Holloway is anything BUT that.

So his upside is Fast at C in your estimation?

+Size - IQ.

I forget who threw out the Bonino comp, but thats the one I like the best if he puts most of his game together.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

he also played for Wisconsin who had some of the weirdest/worst/strangest/most painful to watch coaching decisions/systems in the NCAA

This is an excuse if hes dogging it in a game down by 5. He's a kid and yeah, being in that situation night in and night out is tough.

It doesn't absolve all of his actual faults though. I can't imagine that he was instructed to take weak shots from 5 feet inside the blue line during 1 on 1 situations. This happened ALOT.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

With Bob’s ranking it seems as though it wouldnt be the craziest thing if Holloway slipped to our second pick. Unlikely though.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

he also played for Wisconsin who had some of the weirdest/worst/strangest/most painful to watch coaching decisions/systems in the NCAA

Yeah Badgers were screwed but Granato didn’t do that bad of a job outside of constant line shuffling, which was out of desperation IMO. I wish I could reveal some of the things I was told by several scouts, Big-10 media, and some former NHL’ers but I don’t want to hurt specific kids. But the bottom line is the locker room was toxic beyond Granato’s control and several kids put off-ice stuff as a priority and Holloway had nothing to do with it.

That’s why he and Caufield are staying. There is no way two high-profile prospects like Holloway and Caufield stay in Wisconsin if Granato was toxic or hurting their development. The agents and parents, and in Caufield’s case Bergevin, would have pulled them from the program instantly.

Holloway will be a top-line center this season but the Badgers are thin and are going to be like this year’s NTDP — not a lot of scoring but team-centric 200-foot hockey. It’ll make him a better prospect if he plays center but I like him as a winger.

I don’t think he’s a top-10 pick anymore but the whole grinder/checker thing is just lazy. People are using CHL stats as a barometer and the defenses in two of those leagues are no-hit clown shows compared to college.

 

[Anthony5967]

Kakko’s motor was a huge issue this year. That won’t ever be the case with Holloway, and if you’ve watched him long enough he knows how to create time and space off the cycle or entries by wearing opponents down and making smart passes. His cross-ice vision is excellent. Only issue there is he can overhandle the puck but again, he was playing NCAA opponents who keep the boxes tighter and collapse and expand quicker to limit options. Zone entries are clean and he can power through or delay and peel back or cut inside. That’s hockey sense. But his passing, vision, and accuracy are all excellent, and he has soft hands for a power winger.

I don’t know. I’d love for him to be a Ranger. Kid can skate and is agile, crash the net, deliver huge hits, kill penalties, etc when he isnt scoring.

Yea, I like Holloway's game, as well. He definitely reminds me of a Dylan Larkin type. The thing with Holloway is I think he will have to stay at wing at the NHL level, though.

 

[Anthony5967]

Holloway/Jarvis at 13 and Marat with the CAR pick.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yea, I like Holloway's game, as well. He definitely reminds me of a Dylan Larkin type. The thing with Holloway is I think he will have to stay at wing at the NHL level, though.

I don't see the Larkin comp at all. Larkin drove the absolute f*** out of the play when he was at Michigan (he was only 3 months older than Holloway was during their freshman seasons, so the age gap wasn't big despite one playing post draft vs pre draft.)

Holloways "hot" streak came primarily on the wing so you're probably right there.

Also, if the choice is between Jarvis and Holloway and they go with the latter, I'm going to need a new tv/monitor/whatever I'm watching the draft on.

 

[effen]

Watching Holloway's highlights he does indeed have a strange habit of being on the perimeter for a guy who seems like a create-a-player. Rarely in the slot. Bizarre given how he's not afraid to hit. Maybe he's afraid to get hit.

Probably stay away for that reason. Not sure that can be coached.

 

[effen]

The other thing that stands out to me is unless he's lugging the puck through the NZ, Holloway plays like a winger. Winger instincts. Not sure I can qualify it unless I watch more vids but a 'center who should be moved to wing' (this happens for lots of reasons all the time so its no big deal) should have more innate creativity and vision.

I'm out.

 

[Joey Bones]

NHL Mock Draft: Completing all the first-round picks after...

Dawson Mercer and Jacob Perreault

Wouldn't mind Mercer with the 1st pick, but I'd be pissed if Perreault is the 2nd....

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Watching Holloway's highlights he does indeed have a strange habit of being on the perimeter for a guy who seems like a create-a-player. Rarely in the slot. Bizarre given how he's not afraid to hit. Maybe he's afraid to get hit.

Probably stay away for that reason. Not sure that can be coached.

FWIW, this contradicts 12 game reports and two live viewings. Taking direct routes to the net and being a slot presence were listed as positives.

Then again, he played about 15-18 mins a game so it would be hard to pick up trends if you’re watching highlights.

Holloway definitely is NOT afraid to get hit. And “excellent seam passer” and “sharp cross-ice vision” showed up in more than half my reports. In one game alone vs Michigan he set up Caufield (Or Weissbach?) for perfect slam dunks but he shanked both.

I think his play in 2018-19 is far more indicative of his upside. Any questions about hockey sense can be answered there. He was the league MVP I believe.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Wouldn't mind Mercer with the 1st pick, but I'd be pissed if Perreault is the 2nd....

Still blows my mind that Perreault won the fastest skater competition. In league play he really went through the motions a lot. Mercer is a different story. That kid really impressed me before he was hurt although his play after being traded was kinda lacking in the pop department

 

[effen]

FWIW, this contradicts 12 game reports and two live viewings. Taking direct routes to the net and being a slot presence were listed as positives.

Then again, he played about 15-18 mins a game so it would be hard to pick up trends if you’re watching highlights.

Holloway definitely is NOT afraid to get hit. And “excellent seam passer” and “sharp cross-ice vision” showed up in more than half my reports. In one game alone vs Michigan he set up Caufield (Or Weissbach?) for perfect slam dunks but he shanked both.

I think his play in 2018-19 is far more indicative of his upside. Any questions about hockey sense can be answered there. He was the league MVP I believe.

I don't mean this in a mean way if your own notes are what you're referencing and I'd put a lot more credence in it if they are. But after the last couple years of arguing with the Chytil moms and Lias skating truthers and Kakko stuff last year denying reality and citing flowery sounding words directly contradicting what I just f'n watched I put very little stock in writeups. Particulary with emphasis on things with small sample or confirmation bias issues like being a great seam passer.

I'm sure you're more versed on him but I wasn't watching just scoring plays or the like. Fair amount of mundane stuff. Maybe on my end its sample size issues but there were definitely red flags in a short period of time in terms of the routes he took and where he decided to position himself on the offensive zone that I rarely notice with other players. It was noticeable. I'd be happy to change my mind. As of right now though, I'm just not a fan.

Note: I am not a scout, amateur or otherwise, just someone who watches a lot of hockey and due to training is good about not puck watching.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Actual NHL scout quotes on Holloway:

"Plays the game on the outside, question how high his skill level is"

"Bit of a slider for me, not sure he sees the ice all that well. 3rd line upside."

"great raw tools, but way to easy to play against"

"so much to like but he plays so much smaller than his actual size"


Credit to HP's black book. They aren't talking about him hitting guys either, because he did plenty of that.

His offense in the paint this season was a single assist IIRC. Not the sign of a guy who goes into danger areas with any frequency.

 

[Joey Bones]

Curious as to know peoples opinions on this.

Here are all of the first overall picks from 2004.

Where would you rank Laf in terms of talent level at draft time and potential peak?

Alex Ovechkin
Sidney Crosby
Erik Johnson
Patrick Kane
Steven Stamkos
John Tavares
Taylor Hall
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nail Yakupov
Nathan McKinnon
Aaron Ekblad
Conner McDavid
Auston Mathews
Nico Hischier
Rasmus Dahlin
Jack Hughes

My ranking based on previous draft status (obviously not counting what they did in their careers, just focusing on what they were before their individual drafts)....

1. Sidney Crosby
2. Alex Ovechkin
3. Connor McDavid
4. Patrick Kane
5. Auston Matthews
6. John Tavares
7. Alexis Lafreniere
8. Steven Stamkos
9. Taylor Hall
10. Jack Hughes
11. Aaron Ekblad
12. Nathan MacKinnon
13. Rasmus Dahlin
14. Nico Hischier
15. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
16. Nail Yakupov
17. Erik Johnson

 

[Joey Bones]

What I've seen.

There are too many things that I don't like in his game which I've mentioned in here. I'm not a believer in the offense as there really isn't anything there that stands out skill wise aside from his skating and a pretty good set of hands. His shot is okay and his passing/vision are honestly pretty ordinary and I'm probably being kind there. He plays a perimeter offensive game and he isn't skilled enough to get away with that. His hockey IQ is pretty overrated tbh, he works hard though.

I think a 25-30 point penalty killing winger (this is probably the part of his game I like the most) would be a pretty big ask for him. Even so, thats not a player I want at 13 with the talent that will be available. I'd understand taking a shot at him with the 2nd pick if you're confident that he can be that player with the potential to grow a bit more, but I don't think that would be overly realistic.

I have to disagree with you on that, mate (which is weird because I feel we usually agree on most things). Holloway definitely started the year out bland. Jumping from the AJHL to NCAA as a true freshman is huge, so it shows that he wasn't "up-to-speed". Wisconsin was a mess all year, too, so you can't really blame the offense not translating initially when he's playing a middle-6, two-way role. Once he started getting into his groove, though, he was a force to be reckoned with. He size and speed combo is enough to make him develop some sort of power forward game. But he needs to develop that. He's playing too much of a grind, two-way style that might be confusing his offensive scoring power. I, also, think his confidence took a hit early on, too, especially when Wisconsin wasn't winning consistently.

What I'm saying is the jury is still out on him with some developmental hurdles. So he isn't "safe" by any means. His floor will easily project him to be at least a bottom-6 grinder, but there is serious potential for the scoring touch to flourish. Might be in his head to play so reserved or it could be a systems clash in which he plays one way and the coaches want him play a different way. Next year would be a better indicator to see his development. Wisconsin is not going to have K'Andre and Turcotte there and possibly Caufield, too, so they'll need to lean on Holloway in order to get some offense.

 

[Joey Bones]

Still blows my mind that Perreault won the fastest skater competition. In league play he really went through the motions a lot. Mercer is a different story. That kid really impressed me before he was hurt although his play after being traded was kinda lacking in the pop department

Perreault's complete lack of a defensive game is a real turnoff. Think he needs to seriously learn that side of the ice in order to have success in the NHL/AHL.

Agreed on Mercer.

 

[effen]

This will probably be the last I comment on Holloway because at this point I'm ready to move on. But I watched some more, and he's four different player types stapled to each other:
- Speedy Fast-ish backchecker when its his man
- Clutterbuck/Martin style hitting for the sake of it w/o the puck when its not his man/wall grinding
- Skjei-esque beautiful neutral zone rusher who loses steam in the o-zone
- Aging mid-30s skill forward who actively seeks out soft spots/side of net plays when not on the wall

I dunno what this all translates to as a whole but I don't think its a mid-1st rounder. JMO as a random dummy on a messageboard.