beekay414
#FireEveryone
I wanted to include Marat K but not enough people know enough about him so I'd be considered a little batshit by most.
Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0
- Thread starter StevenToddIves
- Start date
Pitaya
Prince of the Alps, Nico Hischier
- Dec 14, 2019
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But thats not what you said
You said those players you listed have as good a chance to be a high end player as Askarov when that simply isnt true
Just because goaltenders are harder to predict (and hes from Russia) doesnt change the fact that Askarov after the top-10/11 is the BPA and by a long shot potential wise
The names you listed arent much of anything compared to the top-10 forwards of each draft in the last 3-5 years. Askarov on the other hand is in the top-10 goalie prospects of the last 3-4 years, if not the top-5
If we pick 12th with Arizona’s pick and the usual suspects are off the board, including Quinn, Mercer is the guy I want. Heck, I’d probably take him before Quinn. He just plays the game the right way.
I’ve said this numerous times but he just reminds so much of Travis Konecny And I’d love to have a player like that on my team.
I can still remember him falling at the draft and I was screaming at my tv to trade up for him. Next thing I knew, Hextall did just that and now we have to watch him blossom as a Flyer.
Holtz all the way....Nj needs finishers he fits and true right shot right wings ....nj has centers....
beekay414
#FireEveryone
I honestly don't agree with this. I like Quinn and think he's an excellent prospect, but I don't really see All Star potential there at all. I could definitely see Quinn reaching the level of a guy like Palmieri (although they play the game differently), maybe even a bit better. Very good, but not elite.
Askarov on the other hand has shown serious potential to be elite. He could definitely reach the level of All Star if his development goes well. It's arguable he has a lower floor and more bust potential, but he also has a higher ceiling based on everything I've seen.
Also, I think the idea of finding a great goalie in the late rounds has reached mythical proportions. It simply doesn't happen very often. Sure, Lundquist, Khabibulin and a couple of others got picked there, but how many late round goalies never made it anywhere? I mean, just because guys like Lidstrom, Chara and Keith weren't 1st round picks, does that mean we shouldn't "waste" 1st round picks on Defensemen, since you can obviously find great ones in the later rounds? Need I remind you that if the Devils hadn't "wasted" a 1st round pick on a goalie in 1990, we probably wouldn't have any Cups at all?
Pitaya
Prince of the Alps, Nico Hischier
- Dec 14, 2019
- 2,708
- 1,825
If we used Vancouvers pick on Askarov id be ecstatic
We immediately get a league top-5 goaltending prospect and our 7th overall and maybe 10-12th overall pick
Blackwood or ‘goalies dont project well’ doesn't mean we dont take a chance on an elite talent
We immediately get a league top-5 goaltending prospect and our 7th overall and maybe 10-12th overall pick
Blackwood or ‘goalies dont project well’ doesn't mean we dont take a chance on an elite talent
Ol Dirty Bstrd
Registered User
- Nov 25, 2007
- 1,784
- 396
Askarov would be a phenomenal pick at 17. Other than the World Juniors this year, he’s put up incredible numbers everywhere he’s played the last few years.
Forget 17, he’d be a good pick at 11, although I’d probably prefer Quinn or Jarvis there (especially if we get a defenseman at 7). But Askarov has more upside than anyone outside the top 9 in my opinion
Forget 17, he’d be a good pick at 11, although I’d probably prefer Quinn or Jarvis there (especially if we get a defenseman at 7). But Askarov has more upside than anyone outside the top 9 in my opinion
People need to be talking more about Perreault on the Devils boards. There is certainly risk, but his combination of skating/shooting/vision is tops of any RW in the draft -- and yes, it's superior to Holtz, Quinn, Mercer, Jarvis and Gunler.
If the Devils miss out on their choice RWs with the #7 pick and the Arizona pick, taking Perreault with the Vancouver pick could pay enormous dividends down the line. But yes, there is certainly risk.
Wow, is Khusnutdinov a good player. I've been writing about him for awhile on these boards. I'm glad you mentioned him and Chromiak -- without giving away my soon-to-be-released 2020 prospect rankings, I have them both verrrrry high.
I have the Devils taking Jack Quinn three picks later, and the gap between Holtz and Quinn is not very large. Rossi can also play the LW, which would give the Devils the option of pairing his strong, two-way game on a line with Hughes while pairing Foote's lights-out goalscoring with Hischier. Rossi could also slot to the third line as center in a shut-down capacity and then play on the wing on the first PP unit. The options he would give a Devils coach are enormous. That's why I went with Rossi in this mock -- along with the fact that he's clearly the best available player available in my scenario.
Cheddabombs
Status Quo
- Mar 13, 2012
- 24,733
- 31,530
We've used later round picks on goalies the last few years, and we don't have good depth at that position at all. Askarov has better potential than anyone else that would be available at 17 and I'll say he has a better chance at reaching it. He's a phenomenal prospect, position be damned.
The Devils would almost certainly have at least 1 Cup - it's not like Mike Dunham was a slouch in net and the Devils were an exceptionally strong team outside of the net for several years. That said, you're not looking at the reverse - how often do highly-drafted goalies do anything at all? And even more importantly, how quickly do goalies get into the league? It's not 1990 anymore.
So in 2015, we've got Samsonov and Blackwood as the only goalies selected in the first two rounds and they're doing pretty okay so far.
2014 - 5 goalies taken in the 2nd round, none have established themselves as NHL starters. Demko is closest, the others have mostly busted. 3rd round yielded Sorokin and Merzlikins, 4th round yielded Shesterkin.
I've just named 8 goalies taken in 2014 - that's a draft from 6 years ago. So yes, while Sorokin, Merzlikins, and Shesterkin might all be NHL starters, it took them a really long time to make it. Merzlikins already signed a contract with a $4M AAV for the next two seasons. Ilya Sorokin is making $2M next season. That's the real problem with goalies - they are not cheap for very long because they take so long to reach the NHL. I'd rather take a skater and it's not close.
We might have won the '95 Cup with Dunham, but I personally doubt it. Even then it would have gone longer than four games.
You named four goalies who weren't picked in the 1st round, I noticed. You also didn't mention that skaters often take just as long. 7th overall pick Hayden Fluery, for example, has only recently become an NHL regular. There are also plenty of 1st round skaters from that draft that are already either career disappointments or outright busts.
I guess I'm going to have to take a stand on Askarov, since he's been a major (and worthwhile) point of contention. In a vacuum, where I'm Devils GM and my scouts are slit and the final vote comes to me, I will say that no, I would not take Askarov at #10 (or #11, or #12) overall.
It's not that I have any criticism whatsoever about Askarov. I have defended the kid time and time again against the weak argument that his mediocre 2020 WJC should somehow cast aspersions onto his immense potential.
It's just that the Devils have too many organizational needs and the 2020 draft is too strong for the Devils to be taking absurd chances with the #7 or #10(-ish) pick. I could not pass up on a Quinn or Mercer or Jarvis to roll those dice.
The Vancouver pick is a different story. If I was assured of two studs at #7 and #10 and walked into that pick with say, Drysdale and Quinn? Then I'd fully be willing to take a big chance on an Askarov or Lapierre.
It's not that I have any criticism whatsoever about Askarov. I have defended the kid time and time again against the weak argument that his mediocre 2020 WJC should somehow cast aspersions onto his immense potential.
It's just that the Devils have too many organizational needs and the 2020 draft is too strong for the Devils to be taking absurd chances with the #7 or #10(-ish) pick. I could not pass up on a Quinn or Mercer or Jarvis to roll those dice.
The Vancouver pick is a different story. If I was assured of two studs at #7 and #10 and walked into that pick with say, Drysdale and Quinn? Then I'd fully be willing to take a big chance on an Askarov or Lapierre.
ninetyeight
Registered User
I personally have Khusnutdinov barely cracking my top50. He's a good skater, but very small and just doesn't put enough points, not internationally and not in the MHL. For me he should be putting 20 to 30 points more to have an argument going in the first round.
Goalies aren't selected in the 1st round anymore. In the 2010s decade, there were 5 goalies picked in the 1st round - Jack Campbell, Andrei Vasilvevsky, Malcolm Subban, Ilya Samsonov, and Spencer Knight.
But you're not looking at the average. Sure, Haydn Fleury isn't going to be any good, but we know that already. We basically know what the skaters from the 2014 draft will do - there will be a few late bloomers in there, guys who break out, but for the most part, we know what they are now. 28 players have played over 200 games who were selected in that draft. All of the goalies selected in 2014? A combined 100 games. Some of them are going to be great goalies. But they take so long to make it that their team isn't going to have control over them for very long.
MBW has basically the track record of one good season. Goalie performance fluctate from game to game and season to season. Blackwood had also some smaller injuries during his career. He might be a Vezina type goalie, he might be hit by the injury bug, he might be a headcase, he might by contract holdout or maybe just a regular starter, who works best in a platoon with an other starter caliber goalie. Nobody can answer this question today. Obviously it's the same about our center depth. From my perspective I don't expect any goalie in the organisation behind MBW to be NHL caliber. Obviously one can surprise, but so can Zacha, McLeod or a center, who got picked in the fourth round.
I looked at past drafts and if you look purely at the goalies. The ones, who were picked early among the drafted goalies, did much better than the late picks. No different than skaters. Obviously there were bust and late round gems. But also this can be observed at the other positions. Based on past draft results I don't see a huge difference in the predicability of goalies and other positions. If you take MBW as an example, he was the second goalie picked in 2015. The only one picked ahead of him was Samsanov, who looks like the current and future starter for a contending Washington team. Was it a fault to draft MBW in the second round? I mean the team had prime Cory, who freshly signed a long term contract.
Perrault has reported attidude issues. He is also consiered bad denfensively. What are the risks with Askarov? Just because he is a goalie?
Goalie being more risky picks IMO is a myth of the past. Teams made great strides in projecting goaltenders. You don't see the draft order of the goalies inverted more than any position. The sample size is just much smaller.
Teams have won Stanley Cups with worse goalies. It's just that everyone believes that good goalie = Stanley Cup, so you'll regularly hear people say how good Grant Fuhr was, even though he wasn't. The Red Wings won with Chris Osgood, twice. I doubt the Devils win 3 with another goalie, but 1? Seems pretty likely.
Fuhr definitely wasn't the reason for Edmonton's SC wins. He doesn't belong in the HOF.
Too many straw men here for me to waste time with. So I'll pick just one. Goalies as a group will always play fewer games than skaters, because about 80% of the time one goalie plays the entire game. The is really quite basic.
MartyOwns
thank you shero
- Apr 1, 2007
- 24,235
- 18,099
a big reason the devils won their cups is because he was the best puck handling goalie of all time. that meshed well with our defensively structured team play- teams couldn’t carry it through the neutral zone and they couldn’t dump it in.
that’s a significant reason why dunham (who admittedly wasn’t a terrible puck handler himself) wasn’t going to win us any cups. another reason is that brodeur was much, much, much better than dunham.
Did you not understand what I wrote? Every goalie drafted in 2014, total, they have played 100 games in the NHL. Every goalie drafted in 2013, total, have played 252 games in the NHL. So yes, goalies will collectively play about 1/16th or 1/17th the number of games as skaters, but do you not see how this is a far, far lower proportion than that? That even by eyeballing it from the very basic stats that I wrote out that goalies have played way less than the around 6% of games that we would expect? And that's because they take forever to develop. I bet given how bad 2014's draft class is and how good those goalies are that they might someday collectively play more than that, but it will take another 10-15 years for that to happen.
The Devils were one of the top 5 teams outside the crease from 1994 to 2003. All you need with that is some hot goaltending to win Stanley Cups and any goalie can get hot, it's just that better goalies are more likely to do it than others. Brodeur was not 'much, much, much' better than Dunham - he was certainly better, but Dunham was an average goalie and Brodeur was above-average in the Cup years.
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