Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0

[StevenToddIves]

Okay, my final prospect ranking is still on the way. Honestly, I'm more insecure about it than I usually am, if only because I normally place so much stock on the prospects' postseasons, which have been universally cancelled due to this cruddy pandemic. For the 17-18 year old prospect, that development arc within (usually) more meaningful games between March and May is just so important. So, if anyone wants to give me a pep talk, feel free.

So, I procrastinated by reworking my mock draft. For the Devils #7 pick, I think it's just so hugely contingent on what the Senators do at #5. I spent hours this week reading every Ottawa writer in the galaxy and their takes on the 2020 draft. Though I still think there is a very solid chance they go with Holtz, I am now leaning to Jamie Drysdale. Which, of course, changes everything. So, here goes...

1 MTL LW Alex Lafreniere
2 LA C Quinton Byfield
3 OTT C/LW Tim Stutzle
4 DET LW/C Cole Perfetti
5 OTT RD Jamie Drysdale
6 ANH LD Jake Sanderson
7 NJ C Marco Rossi
8 BUF LW Lucas Raymond
9 CHI RW Alex Holtz
10 NJ RW Jack Quinn
11 MIN C Anton Lundell
12 WPG RW/C Dawson Mercer
13 NYR LW Rodion Amirov
14 FLA C Connor Zary
15 CLB LW Dylan Holloway
16 CGY G Yaroslav Askarov
17 NJ LD Kaiden Guhle
18 NSH RD Braden Schneider
19 CAR C/LW Jan Mysak
20 EDM RW/C Seth Jarvis
21 OTT RW Jacob Perreault
22 DAL RW Noel Gunler
23 NYR C Roni Hirvonen
24 MIN LD Ryan O'Rourke
25 PHI RW/C Mavrik Bourque
26 SJ LW JJ Peterka
27 COL RW Martin Chromiak
28 VEG LW Jake Neighbours
29 WSH C Marat Khusnutdinov
30 STL C Hendrix Lapierre
31 ANH RW/C Tyson Foerster


The only Devils pick I have remaining the same as my mock 1.0 (Drysdale/Quinn/Amirov) is Quinn. I think if the Devils draft at #10, they're taking Quinn, plain and simple. If the Devils pick drops to #11 or #12 and they miss out on Quinn, I believe Mercer would be the Devils pick, which we should all also be thrilled with. It's very close to me between the two future first-line stud RWs, and both are not far behind Alex Holtz. The Guhle pick was a bit of a no-brainer for me -- if the Devils take Fs at #7 & #10 and keep all three picks, I think it would be a slam-dunk that they take a D there, unless of course Askarov were available, which would be a whole new can of worms...

Anyway, I'd love to hear your comments.

Click to read more...

 

[imMagnum]

Love that we will most likely get our choice of Rossi or Holtz. If we don’t, we get one of the defenseman, which is hardly a consolation prize. The rise of Sanderson has made the #7 pick so much more appealing for us.

Great write ups btw.

 

[RememberTheName]

Interesting that you have no Reichel in the top 31. Any particular reason?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Interesting that you have no Reichel in the top 31. Any particular reason?

I think Reichel is a first/second round tweener. It's certainly possible for him to go in the last few picks of the 1st round, but I think he's a more likely selection in the 35-45 range.

Again, this is speculation as to how the first round could go. It's not my rankings. Players in my top 30 have been left off this mock, and a player ranked just outside my top 10 I have going 30th overall (Hendrix Lapierre).

The player who strikes me as the most glaring omission is not Reichel but rather Justin Barron. Despite an injury-marred draft-eligible season, I find it hard to believe that a big, two-way defenseman with great skates won't get snatched up in the first round. Sam Colangelo is another guy certain to be coveted by NHL scouts more than the draft writers, similar to Shane Pinto last year.

 

[longislanddevil]

While it isn’t necessarily an area of need, if this scenario plays out we should be absolutely ecstatic. I truly believe Rossi is going to be a STUD at the next level. Besides, is it ever possible to be TOO DEEP up the middle? Being able to land a pure goal scorer in Quinn or Mercer a few picks later would make this a home run. It’s not going to happen but imagine if Holtz somehow fell to 10? It’s fun to dream!

Give me Rossi or Drysdale at 7 and I’m one happy Devils fan.

 

[Alex NJD]

Was very excited to see this, I am curious as to why Buffalo takes Raymond over Holtz. Feel like they want help around Eichel sooner rather than later

 

[My3Sons]

Guhle over Schneider? Not questioning the pick but with RD such a wasteland beyond PK/Sevs and maybe Walsh if he signs, Schneider could be patrolling the NJ blue line in two years. I could see that being attractive.

 

[TBF1972]

Love that we will most likely get our choice of Rossi or Holtz. If we don’t, we get one of the defenseman, which is hardly a consolation prize. The rise of Sanderson has made the #7 pick so much more appealing for us.

Great write ups btw.

I am not sold on Detroit picking Perfetti.

 

[ninetyeight]

I am not sold on Detroit picking Perfetti.

That's what all the rumors are saying at least.


But who knows might be some intentional fake leaks to throw off other GMs, possibly with a trade in mind. They're not really set on anywhere. They've got some potential D prospects in Seider, Hronek, Cholowski, Tuomisto, and some younger D men in Bowey, Hicketts, Wood.. But really outside of perhaps Seider I don't see a sure thing #1 pairing D. Even though they were the least scoring team in the league, I think there's potential in their young forwards; Larkin, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Fabbri, Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen. Maybe Yzerman goes against the media rankings this year too and wants someone like Raymond or Lundell (for which they'd probably trade down for).

 

[TBF1972]

Guhle over Schneider? Not questioning the pick but with RD such a wasteland beyond PK/Sevs and maybe Walsh if he signs, Schneider could be patrolling the NJ blue line in two years. I could see that being attractive.

Smith potentially being a LH RD could change the outlook of the prospect significantly. So if Guhle is BPA over Schneider this would be fine, as the deep chart a few years down the line could look something like this

LHD	RHD
Bahl	Severson
Misyul	Smith
Okhotyuk	Walsh
Vukojevic	McCarthy

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[RyGuy]

Smith potentially being a LH RD could change the outlook of the prospect significantly. So if Guhle is BPA over Schneider this would be fine, as the deep chart a few years down the line could look something like this

LHD	RHD
Bahl	Severson
Misyul	Smith
Okhotyuk	Walsh
Vukojevic	McCarthy

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Unfortunately, if dont draft some D studs or make some trades, that IS what our defense will look like in a few years.

 

[Nico Hischier]

After passing on him twice, I would be upset that Calgary drafts Askarov ONE spot ahead of us at #16

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

If the Devils pick drops to #11 or #12 and they miss out on Quinn, I believe Mercer would be the Devils pick, which we should all also be thrilled with.

I take Lundell or Askarov ahead of Mercer if our pick slides to #11 or #12.

 

[Goptor]

Unfortunately, if dont draft some D studs or make some trades, that IS what our defense will look like in a few years.

Considering that group would cost less than 10$ mil combined, we should have the best forward group in the league to make up for it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Was very excited to see this, I am curious as to why Buffalo takes Raymond over Holtz. Feel like they want help around Eichel sooner rather than later

Obviously, Raymond vs. Holtz is a tight battle for a team which desperately needs top-line winger prospects on both sides. I went with Raymond because I feel he has higher upside, and new Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams might be going for the home run with his first pick.

But I think we'd all agree that, if the first 7 picks shook out the way I hypothesized in my scenario, that Raymond and Holtz would go 8/9 in some order.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Guhle over Schneider? Not questioning the pick but with RD such a wasteland beyond PK/Sevs and maybe Walsh if he signs, Schneider could be patrolling the NJ blue line in two years. I could see that being attractive.

Certainly, you have a point. But I think we all keep forgetting that Ty Smith prefers playing RD despite the fact that he's a left-shot. So, with that in mind, I went with the "best overall defenseman", and to me Guhle nudged out Schneider (though it's close) because of his cannon shot.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I am not sold on Detroit picking Perfetti.

No, but speculation is trending in that direction, and lacking inside information I'm just going to go with the proverbial flow.

I'd love to hear your theory as to why you think this, so I can take it into account when I do my mock draft 3.0.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's what all the rumors are saying at least.


But who knows might be some intentional fake leaks to throw off other GMs, possibly with a trade in mind. They're not really set on anywhere. They've got some potential D prospects in Seider, Hronek, Cholowski, Tuomisto, and some younger D men in Bowey, Hicketts, Wood.. But really outside of perhaps Seider I don't see a sure thing #1 pairing D. Even though they were the least scoring team in the league, I think there's potential in their young forwards; Larkin, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Fabbri, Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen. Maybe Yzerman goes against the media rankings this year too and wants someone like Raymond or Lundell (for which they'd probably trade down for).

Seider might be the second best D prospect in all hockey behind Bowen Byram, but I agree with you that beyond him they lack for high-end prospects. I think Hronek will be a very solid 3/4 guy for years to come and I'm also pretty high on Jared McIsaac as a potential 3/4 LD and Alec Regula's future at RD.

Personally, if I'm Detroit I'd be taking a hard look at Rossi. Not only do I think he's superlative talent, but a future top 3 at center of Rossi/Larkin/Veleno could be pretty dominant as, like you said, the Wings have a pretty solid collection of young wingers.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I take Lundell or Askarov ahead of Mercer if our pick slides to #11 or #12.

The difference between Holtz/Quinn/Mercer at RW is very, very slim. Mercer's stick handling and physical game are the clear-cut best of the three. He's a very balanced player with few flaws and, though Holtz and Quinn have higher ceilings, Mercer has the highest floor. I would say that while Holtz and Quinn have elite goal-scoring upside, Mercer still has very good upside of being a 30+ goal first-line RW with great versatility and the ability to play in all situations.

Lundell is an interesting comparison, especially considering Mercer is also a very capable center. Neither Lundell nor Mercer have elite offensive skills, but I would say Mercer is closer to such a label. Mercer is capable of centering in the NHL but is more suited to the RW. Mercer is excellent defensively, but I would rank Lundell higher in that respect. They both have tremendous hockey IQs. I would rate Mercer a bit higher overall, simply on account of his hands. He's a top-five stickhandler in the entire draft, and is really well-versed in utilizing this skill to extend plays in the offensive zone, especially because his decision making is so sound.

Again, it's very close, though. I'm not going to stick Askarov in this equation due to the fact that I'm insecure ranking goaltenders with skaters. But I would rank these skaters:

1)Holtz
2)Quinn
3)Mercer
4)Lundell

...with the caveat that there's no huge drop off between any of these players.

 

[TBF1972]

No, but speculation is trending in that direction, and lacking inside information I'm just going to go with the proverbial flow.

I'd love to hear your theory as to why you think this, so I can take it into account when I do my mock draft 3.0.

Smallish, average skater, most likely a LW.
I know Yzerman won gambles like that in Tampa, but they didn't come as Top5 picks. Of the top 7 forwards IMO Perfetti has the biggest bust potential and Yzerman still needs to build a track record as the GM of the Red Wings. There are safer picks with similar upside at more valuable positions. LHD is the position of need, if I look at Detroit's prospect pipeline. Sanderson is the player, that fits that need. Sanderson is also in play with Ottawa at 5 and they hold the #3 pick as well. So they will draft before and after Detroit.
If Sanderson is Yzerman's target, I would do everything to make Ottawa believe, I am looking at a play driving scoring center/wing prospect like Perfetti AND Stützle. If Ottawa wants Stützle and Sanderson at 3 and 5, they will pick Stützle first, if they believe the rumors, which connect Detroit with Perfetti. But if they fear Detroit is picking Sanderson at 4, they easily could opt for Sanderson at 3 and pick the forward they like best, who makes it to pick #5.
Your mock looks fine, but it also could easily go like this:
1) Laf
2) Byfield to LA
3) Sanderson to Ottawa
4) Stützle to Detroit
5) Rossi to Ottawa
6) Drysdale to Anaheim
7) NJ picks from a pool of Perfetti, Raymond and Holtz

 

[TBF1972]

Considering that group would cost less than 10$ mil combined, we should have the best forward group in the league to make up for it.

Far from it without serious development from every forward in that group. And Toronto has currently one of the best forward groups in the league without much success. A balanced roster has IMO a better chance to succeed.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Smallish, average skater, most likely a LW.
I know Yzerman won gambles like that in Tampa, but they didn't come as Top5 picks. Of the top 7 forwards IMO Perfetti has the biggest bust potential and Yzerman still needs to build a track record as the GM of the Red Wings. There are safer picks with similar upside at more valuable positions. LHD is the position of need, if I look at Detroit's prospect pipeline. Sanderson is the player, that fits that need. Sanderson is also in play with Ottawa at 5 and they hold the #3 pick as well. So they will draft before and after Detroit.
If Sanderson is Yzerman's target, I would do everything to make Ottawa believe, I am looking at a play driving scoring center/wing prospect like Perfetti AND Stützle. If Ottawa wants Stützle and Sanderson at 3 and 5, they will pick Stützle first, if they believe the rumors, which connect Detroit with Perfetti. But if they fear Detroit is picking Sanderson at 4, they easily could opt for Sanderson at 3 and pick the forward they like best, who makes it to pick #5.
Your mock looks fine, but it also could easily go like this:
1) Laf
2) Byfield to LA
3) Sanderson to Ottawa
4) Stützle to Detroit
5) Rossi to Ottawa
6) Drysdale to Anaheim
7) NJ picks from a pool of Perfetti, Raymond and Holtz

I agree with your point that there are several possibilities. But I will say that there's no chance Ottawa takes Sanderson at #3. Their best young player besides Tkachuk is a LD, Thomas Chabot. They are desperate for a first-line center to build around. I think it's a pretty safe bet they fill that void with Stutzle, and I've speculated before that they could try to trade up with LA to get Byfield.

I also agree that Detroit would be wise to consider Sanderson at #4. But not because Perfetti has "bust potential", which I disagree with. He's actually a good skater, though not a great one. His hockey IQ is unbelievable and his hands are golden. I also think that Detroit will take a good hard look at Rossi #4 -- he's the type of player that Yzerman loves.

 

[TBF1972]

I agree with your point that there are several possibilities. But I will say that there's no chance Ottawa takes Sanderson at #3. Their best young player besides Tkachuk is a LD, Thomas Chabot. They are desperate for a first-line center to build around. I think it's a pretty safe bet they fill that void with Stutzle, and I've speculated before that they could try to trade up with LA to get Byfield.

I also agree that Detroit would be wise to consider Sanderson at #4. But not because Perfetti has "bust potential", which I disagree with. He's actually a good skater, though not a great one. His hockey IQ is unbelievable and his hands are golden. I also think that Detroit will take a good hard look at Rossi #4 -- he's the type of player that Yzerman loves.

Still I don't truts the rumors.
Yzerman wasn't known in Tampa to leak his intentions and preferences ahead of the draft. Why would it be different in Detroit? So if the source of the rumor is not from within the Red Wings organization, it has no value and can be ignored.

 

[ninetyeight]

Of the top 7 forwards IMO Perfetti has the biggest bust potential

How does he have the biggest bust potential? He's done nothing but dominate his entire life despite being undersized. I'm personally more worried about big forwards who dominate juniors with their size, but once they get to NHL, their whole game falls apart when everyone else is huge too.

 

[Billdo]

How does he have the biggest bust potential? He's done nothing but dominate his entire life despite being undersized. I'm personally more worried about big forwards who dominate juniors with their size, but once they get to NHL, their whole game falls apart when everyone else is huge too.

Yeah I'm not sure how Perfetti has bust potential.