Horse Racing: 2020 conclusion: $323,000 (Santa Anita) and $106,000 (Aqueduct) Pick 6 hit on New Year's Eve

[Orr Fourever]

I'm putting all my pennies on Sole Volante. You heard it here first...

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Opening day: Today began the meet which closes September 27.
• Race 4: Ry's the Guy (Chris Landeros/Ian Wilkes) won the $115,000 feature race at 1 1/2 miles. The winner snapped an 8-race losing streak and is now 3-for-15 lifetime but is a horse for the course. He is 5 3-1-0 lifetime at Churchill Downs yet winless in 10 starts outside of Louisville.
• Ricardo Santana, Jr. won three of his four starts including two rides for Steve Asmussen.
• Steve Asmussen was 2-for-2 and is now 24 wins shy of 9,000. Only Dale Baird with 9.445 wins has more victories.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Saratoga (New York):

• Irad Ortiz, Jr. had four victories which elevated him to a 2-win lead over brother Jose atop the riders' standings.
• Todd Pletcher (27 wins) maintains a 1-win lead over Chad Brown atop the trainers' standings.
• Handle: About $7 million. Total handle is roughly $560 million with Labor Day is the finale (five racing days to go). Sloppy conditions included the cancellation of the first race which was for jumpers.

Belterra (Ohio):

• Perry Ouzts had two winners to bring his total to 7,118 which is 23 behind Chris McCarron and 6th place all-time.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Race 10: The $.50 Pick 5 paid over $91,000.

 

[GKJ]

King Guillermo is going to scratch as he’s developed a fever, so that takes Tiz the Law out of the 17-post. Now he’s just #17 which I’m pretty sure still hasn’t produced a winner unless there’s one from the stone ages.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

King Guillermo is going to scratch as he’s developed a fever, so that takes Tiz the Law out of the 17-post. Now he’s just #17 which I’m pretty sure still hasn’t produced a winner unless there’s one from the stone ages.

Post #17 is 0-for-41 all-time. As far as those who were saddled with #17 and won... I am not sure.

When Gato Del Sol won in 1982, he wore #11 but was in the #18 post in a field of 19. That is because of an entry and when "field" betting was allowed.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thursday, Septyember 3, 2020

Saratoga (New York):

• Handle: Over $9 million. Total handle is roughly $569 million with Labor Day the finale (four racing days to go).
• Irad Ortiz, Jr. leads the rider standings (+3).
• Todd Pletcher leads the trainers' standings (+1).

Laurel (Maryland):

• Race 9: A severe thunderstorm with lightning forced the cancellation of the race.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Race 10: Girl Daddy (Joe Talamo/Dale Romans) won the Grade 3 $200,000 Pocahontas Stakes and with it received an invitation to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is 2-for-2. This was the 52nd running of the race and only Romans has won it four times among all trainers.

​

Woodbine (Ontario):

• Justin Stein keeps putting up wins. He had his second straight 3-win racing day.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Finnick the Fierce will scratch from the Derby.

 

[GKJ]

Finnick the Fierce will scratch from the Derby.

At this rate they might not even need the new gate

 

[GKJ]

Monomoy Girl, no contest in the La Troienne

 

[GKJ]

No excuses for Gamine. 15/1 at post time for Shedaresthedevil

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

At this rate they might not even need the new gate

I am interested in seeing if Steve Asmussen can wield any magic with Max Player, under his care for the first time, but now the horse drops into the rail position. It adds to the intrigue.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Friday, September 4, 2020

• Brad Cox won three times at Churchill and once at Arlington for a 4-win day.
• Steve Asmussen is 17 wins shy of 9,000 in his career.

Saratoga (New York):

• Handle: About $12 million. Total handle is roughly $580+ million with Labor Day the finale (three racing days to go). Eventually the total will be released officially.
• Card: Six of the races were $150,000 purses. All horses entered today were bred in New York.
• Luis Saez had a 4-win day including the final three races two of which were $150,000 purses.
• Race 4: 24-1, 53-1, 17-1 topped the ticket which returned $2,400+ for a $.50 tri. The winning trainer is Barclay Tagg who has the favorite in tomorrow's Kentucky Derby.
• Race 7: Thin White Duke (Joel Rosario/Phillip Gleaves), a 2-year-old gelding, was the lone first-time starter -- a wagering angle I endorse -- and debuted to victory in the $150,000 Funny Cide for 2-year-olds foaled in New York. Gleaves is a former assistant to legendary trainer Woody Stephens.
• Jockeys: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (53 wins) and brother Jose (52 wins) are 1-2 heading into the final weekend.
• Trainers: Todd Pletcher (27 wins) and Chad Brown (26 wins) are 1-2 heading into the final weekend.
• Junior Alvarado isn't getting many top horses but he has lost 38 straight rides.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Scratches: There were a few scratches with the heavy T-storms of the prior day forcing the issue.
• Ladies' Day: Races 6, 7 and 8 were all won by female jockeys and trainers. Katie Davis-Annette Eubanks won twice and in between was Forest Boyce-Courtney Young. Young, who I believe operates a farm in the area, has just 13 lifetime wins but is 2-for-2 the past 2 days, her lone wins of 2020.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Card: An impressive card highlighted by the Kentucky Oaks. Churchill thrives on the Oaks-Derby weekend. All 13 races were $97,000 purses or more and 10 were $100,000+.
• Handle: $30.8 million was bet on the card including over $10 million on the Oaks. A sizeable drop from last year's record-setting handle.
• Florent Geroux won five times including three straight graded stakes! He teamed with trainer Brad Cox for three victories.
• Race 2: Salty as Can Be (Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse) debuted to a win in a $97,000 maiden special weight and paid $25.40.
• Race 3: A stewards' review DQ'd the original winner.
• Race 5: Travel Column (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) debuted to a win in a $97,000 maiden special weight at 4-to-1.
• Race 6: A stewards' review DQ'd the original winner. Paco Lopez was the original winning rider but the connections of Javier Castellano-Chad Brown were put up. Lopez's reputation follows him I suppose. It didn't look to me as if a DQ was necessary.
• Race 8: Sconsin (James Graham/Gregory Foley) won the $300,000 Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes.
• Race 9: Sharing (Manny Franco/Graham Motion) won the $200,000 Grade 2 Edgewood and improved to 7 5-1-1. The 3-year-old filly became a millionaire.
• Race 10: By My Standards (Gabriel Saez/Bret Calhoun) won the Grade 2 $400,000 Alysheba Stakes and improved to 12 6-4-1. The 4-year-old colt has earned over $1.7 million. McKinzie (Mike Smith/Bob Baffert) finished fourth and doesn't appear to have the same spark he once possessed.
• Race 11: Monomoy Girl (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) won the Grade I $500,000 La Troienne Stakes. She is now a fantastic 14 12-2-0 and has earned over $3.3 million.

​

• Race 12: Shedaresthedevil (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) won the $1.25 million Grade I Kentucky Oaks and paid $33.20 in a big upset in which the fastest time in this race's history was set. She ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.28, besting Bird Town's 2003 time of 1:48.64. The winner is now 3-for-3 on the Churchill course. She defeated Swiss Skydiver (Tyler Gaffalione/Kenny McPeek) and Gamine (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert) among others. About $7 million was bet into the race.

​

• Race 13: Diamond Oops (Florent Geroux/Patrick Biancone) won the $250,000 Grade 2 Turf Sprint. It was the third straight race -- all graded stakes -- for the winning jockey who had a remarkable five victories on nine mounts.

Del Mar (California):

• Handle: About $12 million.
• Umberto Rispoli rode three more winners. His 45 wins leads the meet and is three better than runner up Flavien Prat's 42.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The incomparable meet of Kentucky Downs starts September 7:

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post (ET)
Race 1	$90,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 1/2 Miles	Turf	13	12:10 PM
Race 2	$100,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	6 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	9	12:40 PM
Race 3	$90,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 Mile	Turf	16	1:11 PM
Race 4	$35,000	Starter Allowance	1 Mile	Turf	16	1:42 PM
Race 5	$90,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 Mile	Turf	16	2:14 PM
Race 6	$95,000	Allowance	6 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	16	2:49 PM
Race 7	$90,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	16	3:23 PM
Race 8	$500,000	Mint Juvenile Fillies S.	1 Mile	Turf	14	3:55 PM
Race 9	$300,000	One Dreamer S.	1 Mile 70 Yards	Turf	16	4:28 PM
Race 10	$500,000	More Than Ready Juvenile S.	1 Mile	Turf	10	5:01 PM
Race 11	$750,000	Tourist Mile S.	1 Mile	Turf	12	5:32 PM

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[GKJ]

I am interested in seeing if Steve Asmussen can wield any magic with Max Player, under his care for the first time, but now the horse drops into the rail position. It adds to the intrigue.

I’m not sure that they will use the 1-hole with the scratch. Don’t they usually leave that open when they can?

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

I’m not sure that they will use the 1-hole with the scratch. Don’t they usually leave that open when they can?

You are correct.

1-eyed Finnick the Fierce scratched from Kentucky Derby

Finnick the Fierce drew the No. 1 post position and was listed at 50-1 on the morning line. His absence means Max Player will break from the inside position. The field will be loaded into posts 2 through 17, with posts 1, 18, 19 and 20 left vacant in the new starting gate, according to Churchill Downs stewards.​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Saturday's graded stakes races listed by grade 1, 2 or 3:

Camarero (Puerto Rico): 1
Churchill Downs: 1-1-1-2-2-2-3
Del Mar: 2
Gulfstream: 3
Monmouth: 3
Saratoga: 1-2-2-2
Woodbine: 3​

Sunday's slate:

Del Mar: 1-2
Saratoga: 1-2
​

Monday's Labor Day slate:

Del Mar: 1
Saratoga: 1

------------------

Saratoga's schedule for Saturday:

FS1 - 11 am-2 pm, 4-6:30 pm FS2 - 2-4 pm MSG+ - 11 am-6:30 pm FS Regionals - 3-6:30 pm

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The TVG and TVG2 schedules for Saturday:

Saturday September 5
TVG
TRACKS	RACES	1ST POST IN EST
FR - La Teste	1-6	5:00 AM
SE - Umaker	1-3	5:10 AM
ZA - Turffontein	1-4	5:55 AM
FR - Argentan	1-3	6:15 AM
GB - Ascot	1-7	7:45 AM
GB - Haydock Park	1-7	8:10 AM
GB - Kempton Park	1-3	8:30 AM
IR - Navan	1-6	8:50 AM
Gulfstream Park	1-12	12:00 PM
Laurel Park	1-4,6,8	12:10 PM
Monmouth Park	1-13	12:50 PM
Woodbine	1-6,9	12:50 PM
Del Mar	1-11	4:00 PM
Golden Gate Fields	5-10	4:15 PM
Charles Town	5-8	7:00 PM
Meadowlands	1-13	7:15 PM
Woodbine Mohawk Park	9-12	7:20 PM
Remington Park	1-9	8:07 PM
Los Alamitos	1-8	10:05 PM
AUA - Moree	4-8	10:40 PM
AUB - Sunshine Coast	3-8	10:50 PM
AUC - Geelong	6-9	10:55 PM
AUD - Gundagai	3-7	11:05 PM
Hong Kong Sha Tin	1-10	1:00 A M 9/6
TVG2
TRACKS	RACES	1ST POST IN EST
Churchill Downs	1-7	11:00 AM
Laurel Park	5-11	12:10 PM
Woodbine	7-11	12:50 PM
Delaware Park	4-6	1:15 PM
Arlington Park	1-3,8-9	3:05 PM
Golden Gate Fields	1-5	4:15 PM
Charles Town	1-3	7:00 PM
Hoosier Park	3-5	7:10 PM
Woodbine Mohawk Park	1-3	7:20 PM

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Steve Asmussen's incredible string of consistency. Nearly 21% winning percentage every year dating to 2005...

Year	Starts	1st	2nd	3rd	Earnings	Per Start	Win %	WPS %	All Starts
Career	43,513	8,982	7,280	6,168	$336,755,096	$7,739	21%	52%	N/A
2020	1,455	273	215	202	$13,135,387	$9,028	19%	47%	View
2019	2,209	433	370	299	$27,495,500	$12,447	20%	50%	View
2018	1,905	400	344	284	$26,450,322	$13,885	21%	54%	View
2017	1,909	379	327	267	$19,631,424	$10,284	20%	51%	View
2016	1,600	317	250	213	$14,834,305	$9,271	20%	49%	View
2015	1,499	252	252	216	$10,764,373	$7,181	17%	48%	View
2014	1,398	294	203	213	$12,537,551	$8,968	21%	51%	View
2013	1,525	307	233	221	$11,925,991	$7,820	20%	50%	View
2012	1,349	285	219	209	$13,229,908	$9,807	21%	53%	View
2011	1,681	348	289	235	$16,288,735	$9,690	21%	52%	View
2010	2,412	506	429	326	$16,308,920	$6,762	21%	52%	View
2009	2,944	650	489	397	$21,884,695	$7,434	22%	52%	View
2008	3,002	621	494	416	$24,223,187	$8,069	21%	51%	View
2007	2,273	488	414	329	$23,899,544	$10,515	21%	54%	View
2006	1,141	241	198	171	$7,715,373	$6,762	21%	53%	View
2005	2,227	473	380	305	$13,293,265	$5,969	21%	52%	View

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I am interested in seeing if Steve Asmussen can wield any magic with Max Player, under his care for the first time, but now the horse drops into the rail position. It adds to the intrigue.

I'll be trying to beat the favorite with Max Player. It's going to take a fairly dramatic turn of events to make this happen, but with the new trainer, 3rd off layoff, the jockey switch to Santana, and a different race track, I think it's within the range of reasonably possible that with some racing luck, he can gain the extra second or so that he needs to beat the very deserved heavy favorite.

If Max Player's ML of 30-1 comes close to holding, I'll have no problem getting beaten by Tiz the Law.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

I'll be trying to beat the favorite with Max Player. It's going to take a fairly dramatic turn of events to make this happen, but with the new trainer, 3rd off layoff, the jockey switch to Santana, and a different race track, I think it's within the range of reasonably possible that with some racing luck, he can gain the extra second or so that he needs to beat the very deserved heavy favorite.

If Max Player's ML of 30-1 comes close to holding, I'll have no problem getting beaten by Tiz the Law.

If someone goes out with Tiz the Law and burns him, then it could set up for a closer like Enforceable. The Oaks-Derby double is going to be pretty no matter who wins based on yesterday's race. That is one of the exotics this weekend offers.

If a person is unfamiliar with the handicapping but the low line on Tiz the Law is too obvious to resist, I suggest putting him on top and using 4 or 5 bombs underneath. That is a $10 bet. Maybe catching a California Chrome-Commanding Curve type exacta will happen. It isn't the likeliest scenario but there are various possibilities on how to play the race(s) today. Enjoy and don't go overboard, a basic axiom.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

And for those who overlooked the Gamine-Swiss Skydiver two horse race wisdom, this is what Shedarestthedevil will pay in the Oaks-Derby double. That filly bet with "all," a $32 bet (16 horses in the Derby), would be an instant profit no matter who wins the Derby.

$2 double will-pays with Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil (No. 7)
1 - SCR
2 - Max Player, $555.80
3 - Enforceable, $972.40
4 - Storm the Court, $1,213.20
5 - Major Fed, $1,298.80
6 - SCR
7 - Money Moves, $569.60
8 - South Bend, $1,379.80
9 - Mr. Big News, $1,994.40
10 - Thousand Words, $399.20
11 - Necker Island, $2,195.60
12 - Sole Volante, $804.40
13 - Attachment Rate, $1.162.40
14 - Winning Impression, $2,681.40
15 - Ny Traffic, $439.60
16 - Honor A. P., $226.80
17 - Tiz the Law, $92.20
18 - Authentic, $348.40

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

It looks like Cezanne will scratch from the Pat Day Mile. That is a big change to that race.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

If someone goes out with Tiz the Law and burns him, then it could set up for a closer like Enforceable. The Oaks-Derby double is going to be pretty no matter who wins based on yesterday's race. That is one of the exotics this weekend offers.

If a person is unfamiliar with the handicapping but the low line on Tiz the Law is too obvious to resist, I suggest putting him on top and using 4 or 5 bombs underneath. That is a $10 bet. Maybe catching a California Chrome-Commanding Curve type exacta will happen. It isn't the likeliest scenario but there are various possibilities on how to play the race(s) today. Enjoy and don't go overboard, a basic axiom.

I'll have a decent exacta box on 2/17 as well.

Your strategy of putting Tiz the Law on top and a few bombs underneath in an exacta is probably the most sound play and I'd do that in a non Derby/big field race.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

The new graphics at Churchill Downs look like they were chosen by a 6 year old. They certainly weren't chosen for clarity for the simulcast bettor.

 

[Fenway]

Last call for Kentucky Derby picks

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/spor...6th-kentucky-derby-churchill-downs-nbc.46622/

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The new graphics at Churchill Downs look like they were chosen by a 6 year old. They certainly weren't chosen for clarity for the simulcast bettor.

I sometimes wonder if these tracks use focus groups with real horse players to analyze changes and make suggestions. White graphics on black backgrounds has been know to work. The block styling of the Stronach tracks isn't bad but it isn't better than the individual styles used in the recent past. An example, the pink at Laurel is not as good as the orangey-yellow/black/white combo used but at least the graphics are legible. The CD graphics has too much red and is cluttered.