Prospect Info: 2020-21 Prospect Development Tracker

[________]

 

[neelynugs]

Just to add to the disagreements on the board, it's pretty difficult, and I even have a problem thinking in those terms. I think Tufte is a perfect example.

Tufte is a massive disappointment. He was sold as highly athletic and raw coming out of high school. He showed an unwillingness to go to the USHL full time out of a sense of a pride for his HS. Then, he was an offensive flop in the NCAA, but he was a very good defensive player and PKer. After his first pro year, he's again proving to be a key defensive option and PKer, and he's still big and very athletic. That size and athleticism with his defensive prowess means he's probably a good bet to crack the NHL lineup at some point. That's still a pretty big disappointment though to what he was supposed to be.

Now take this year's 4th round pick. Antonio Stranges is pure offensive skill, and he's not been able to put it together just yet. It seems like he might have a bad attitude and/or poor work ethic. He's way more exciting than Tufte, his potential is much higher, and he's also a much longer shot to ever play in the NHL because of his skillset being Top 6 or bust.

How do you rank those two? I think that's where the consensus breaks a down a bit. Who is a better prospect, the guy that probably will be an NHLer as a plug or the guy you may never see in a Dallas Stars uniform other than Traverse City?

great analysis. no question it's a difficult task, we have the same issues on the bruins board.
my own personal opinion is you try to balance the upside and the likelihood of the player
becoming a regular, and look for a happy medium. i usually have more time for the guy
with more upside, but that also depends on what the question marks are.

 

[BigG44]

Just for kicks ... and I wouldn't defend any single ranking. I know this is a crap shoot and I don't really feel too strongly about any of them.

1. Thomas Harley - Close to NHL ready; Significant upside
2. Jason Robertson - NHL ready; Significant upside
3. Ty Dellandrea - Close to NHL ready; Top 9 Center
4. Mavrick Bourque - 3 or 4 years; Significant upside; Easy argument he should be over Dellandrea
5. Jake Oettinger - Close to NHL ready; 1A or 1B in a tandem; He's not Vasilevskiy
6. Joel Kiviranta - NHL Ready, Top 9/Bottom 6; Probably should have been left off
7. Nicholas Caamano - Close to NHL Ready, Top 9/Bottom 6, Probably makes the 2020-21 team if Kiviranta isn't signed as UDFA
8. Ryan Shea - Close to NHL Ready; 3rd pair D; May never play in Dallas outside of injury replacement
9. Jacob Peterson - 1 or 2 years; Top 9; Best European prospect per Takko
10. Fredrik Karlstrom - 1 or 2 years; Top 9/Bottom 6; Great season in SHL right now
11. Riley Damiani - 2 or 3 years; Top 9; More offensive upside than Back, Gardner, or Tufte
12. Oscar Back - 2 or 3 years; Checking center; More upside than Gardner or Tufte
13. Rhett Gardner - Close to NHL ready, Checking Center
14. Riley Tufte - Close to NHL ready/2 years max; Bottom 6
15. Evgeniy Oksentyuk - 2 to 4 years; Offensive upside, Could be career AHLer/return to Europe
16. Adam Mascherin - Probably not an NHLer; Offensive upside
17. Joel L'Esperance - Close to NHL Ready, Less upside than other Top 9/Bottom 6 forwards, Could be a career AHLer (Curtis McKenzie)
18. Daniel Ljungman - Long term Project, Scorer
19. Dawson Barteaux - 3 or 4 years maybe, 3rd pair D, Not a great shot to play in Dallas
20. Jerad Rosburg - 1 or 2 years, 3rd pair D, Not a great shot to play in Dallas

I would be shocked if Harley, Robertson, Dellandrea, Bourque, Oettinger, and Kiviranta play at least a full season or two in Dallas, and many of them are likely long-term assets. Some could be trade options though.

Caamano, Peterson, Karlstrom, Damiani, Back, Gardner, Tufte, and L'Esperance are all going to probably play NHL games as cheap Bottom 6 options sooner rather than later, and it could easily be on a different team. I think Caamano is a lock for a few games with Dallas this year, but I added him to this list because he's a potential expansion target for Seattle.

Shea is probably the most likely to make the NHL of the bunch, but he and Barteaux and Rosburg might have a single shot at an NHL spot in Dallas soon.

I would guess Oksentyuk has the best shot at an NHL career, but I would guess Ljunman has more upside. Mascherin has a make or break season this year in Texas.

The only person I feel guilty leaving off is Antonio Stranges. He seems really exciting. The fact that he doesn't see eye to eye with his OHL coach yet, and he's not putting it together in the OHL yet scares me. Blame it on Scott Glennie, but attitude or potential attitude scares me. He has better upside than several guys I listed ahead of him.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

One thing I disagree with - or at least hope not to be true - is Otter as the 5th or 6th prospect on most lists. The Stars will need a near Bishop level goalie to carry them the next decade or so, and the lower ranking may indicate not many are as high on him as the Stars. Of course, in the ideal world, he is a 1A goalie, and the others are even better, but I doubt they all are.

Another thing on these prospects evaluation lists is that some evaluate for upside, others evaluate for most likely to make the NHL, even if in a lower tier role. Neither one is right, and the list above tries to honestly cover both bases, nice job. I would tend to put Roberson below a few others, yes, he has the best AHL scoring touch, but how many (i.e., junior Lessard, Jon Sim) come up just a tick short in shot accuracy, velocity, or skating speed to get open (supposedly JR's problem). I think Kivi, Ty D and Mav B both make impacts, and Stars continue to roll 4 lines, none of which has a 30 goal scorer, and most of which feature 2-4 <20 goal scorers, i.e., score by committee, which isn't all bad.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

I like tiers better than rankings. To me the difference between the top 5 and the rest is fairly large, whereas the difference from say 7 to 15 is pretty minimal.

 

[starsfan86]

Peterson and Back with an assist each today. Poor Albin getting sheltered again.

 

[BigG44]

Glad Peterson is healthy. Hopefully he can stay that way. Starting to look like Karlstrom and Peterson have a shot, maybe a longshot, to be what Janmark was prior to discovery of the knee issue. Maybe not close to 20 goals, but defensively reliable middle 6.

 

[BigG44]

Oscar Back assist. He's 27 with the primary assist:

 

[Kcb12345]

Oscar Back assist. He's 27 with the primary assist:

That's a sweet pass

 

[Starry Knight]

100 point season for Stranges incoming.

 

[Satan]

Not so fast

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Just for kicks ... and I wouldn't defend any single ranking. I know this is a crap shoot and I don't really feel too strongly about any of them.

1. Thomas Harley - Close to NHL ready; Significant upside
2. Jason Robertson - NHL ready; Significant upside
3. Ty Dellandrea - Close to NHL ready; Top 9 Center
4. Mavrick Bourque - 3 or 4 years; Significant upside; Easy argument he should be over Dellandrea
5. Jake Oettinger - Close to NHL ready; 1A or 1B in a tandem; He's not Vasilevskiy
6. Joel Kiviranta - NHL Ready, Top 9/Bottom 6; Probably should have been left off
7. Nicholas Caamano - Close to NHL Ready, Top 9/Bottom 6, Probably makes the 2020-21 team if Kiviranta isn't signed as UDFA
8. Ryan Shea - Close to NHL Ready; 3rd pair D; May never play in Dallas outside of injury replacement
9. Jacob Peterson - 1 or 2 years; Top 9; Best European prospect per Takko
10. Fredrik Karlstrom - 1 or 2 years; Top 9/Bottom 6; Great season in SHL right now
11. Riley Damiani - 2 or 3 years; Top 9; More offensive upside than Back, Gardner, or Tufte
12. Oscar Back - 2 or 3 years; Checking center; More upside than Gardner or Tufte
13. Rhett Gardner - Close to NHL ready, Checking Center
14. Riley Tufte - Close to NHL ready/2 years max; Bottom 6
15. Evgeniy Oksentyuk - 2 to 4 years; Offensive upside, Could be career AHLer/return to Europe
16. Adam Mascherin - Probably not an NHLer; Offensive upside
17. Joel L'Esperance - Close to NHL Ready, Less upside than other Top 9/Bottom 6 forwards, Could be a career AHLer (Curtis McKenzie)
18. Daniel Ljungman - Long term Project, Scorer
19. Dawson Barteaux - 3 or 4 years maybe, 3rd pair D, Not a great shot to play in Dallas
20. Jerad Rosburg - 1 or 2 years, 3rd pair D, Not a great shot to play in Dallas

I would be shocked if Harley, Robertson, Dellandrea, Bourque, Oettinger, and Kiviranta play at least a full season or two in Dallas, and many of them are likely long-term assets. Some could be trade options though.

Caamano, Peterson, Karlstrom, Damiani, Back, Gardner, Tufte, and L'Esperance are all going to probably play NHL games as cheap Bottom 6 options sooner rather than later, and it could easily be on a different team. I think Caamano is a lock for a few games with Dallas this year, but I added him to this list because he's a potential expansion target for Seattle.

Shea is probably the most likely to make the NHL of the bunch, but he and Barteaux and Rosburg might have a single shot at an NHL spot in Dallas soon.

I would guess Oksentyuk has the best shot at an NHL career, but I would guess Ljunman has more upside. Mascherin has a make or break season this year in Texas.

The only person I feel guilty leaving off is Antonio Stranges. He seems really exciting. The fact that he doesn't see eye to eye with his OHL coach yet, and he's not putting it together in the OHL yet scares me. Blame it on Scott Glennie, but attitude or potential attitude scares me. He has better upside than several guys I listed ahead of him.

My rankings are pretty much in the same boat I tend to rank the likely bottom six guys over the long shots like Mascherin/Oksentyuk. Far higher upside, but pretty likely to bust as well.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

We really just need three tiers -

Likely to be top 6/4/1 player in NHL, would be a disappointment if they fared less well.
Likely to be bottom 6/4/1 player in NHL
Not likely to make any significant impact in the NHL

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Nice 7 minutes interview here with Harley:

After eye-opening NHL debut, Thomas Harley aims for top-four role at World Juniors - TSN.ca

 

[BigG44]

Interesting observation from Harley. He wonders why the OHL would play if they can't bodycheck. It may not end up being something he has to worry about if he sticks in Dallas, but his path to an NHL job this season is a bit tougher.

Financially ... it actually makes a ton of sense to NOT burn his 1st year of ELC and get him a year closer to UFA in a very likely pandemic shortened season. With big deals coming to Heiskanen and Klingberg, Harley would still be on his ELC and likely be a great value the first year Heiskanen and Klingberg were both playing under their new contract (assuming both are re-signed which is not an argument I'm making right now).

 

[BigG44]

That's a really likable guy. I know they say he plays cocky, and that's why he has the potential to be very good, but he doesn't come off cocky. He's very cognizant of his deficiencies and where he can get better. You can tell though that there is a confidence that it's something he thinks he will eventually put all together.

 

[BigG44]

Really wonderful pass and assist by Kalstrom on the PP yesterday.

 

[BigG44]

Different angle

 

[NJ Fan 12]

Daniel Ljungman stays hot. Scores a goal and an assist today. Now he has 11 goals and 5 assists in 11 games for the U20 league in Sweden.

Scoring goals at U20 level but limited impact in three SHL games. Any likelihood of him playing in Allsvenskan where he would get an opportunity to play pro hockey?

 

[BigG44]

Scoring goals at U20 level but limited impact in three SHL games. Any likelihood of him playing in Allsvenskan where he would get an opportunity to play pro hockey?

It's not up to Dallas, but their European Director of Scouting Kari Takko said he hopes Ljungman spends the year with the U20 squad in Linkoping. He's spent several games in the SHL this year though as the extra forward. He actually hasn't played a game in a while. I don't know if there was a COVID-19 outbreak or something with his U20 team, but several games seem to have been cancelled. He was going to be with the U20 National team to play Finland, but I saw those games got cancelled as well.

 

[BigG44]

Just double checked ... Linkoping's U20 team hasn't played since 10/18. I don't see any more scheduled games right now for them.

 

[serp]

Isn't Ljungman on Swedens WCJ team ?

 

[BigG44]

Isn't Ljungman on Swedens WCJ team ?

He hadn't played about two weeks before that tournament with Finland was cancelled. He's probably with them now. I was just saying I'm not sure what happened with his U20 team with Linkoping. They've had multiple games cancelled it seems, and it started before he joined the National team.

 

[BigG44]

Sjolund scored his first goal in HockeyAllsvenskan this season a few days ago.

 

[BigG44]

Peterson (#44) with the 2nd assist on this goal.