Speculation: 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 1 - Offseason

[Fistfullofbeer]

So what happens if we get scoring but our goaltending is still league worst?

If Jones would not have improved after BB took over, I would think goalie would be our #1 need. But with him showing improvement, I expect that we focus on getting more skill in the top-6. Right now, we have 4 legit top-6 forwards. Need atleast one more. We need an upgrade over Labanc in the top-6 as well but worst case, we can pair him with Hertl and Meier to shelter him a bit. Ideally, I would like to see Labanc playing on the 3rd line but we don't have the forwards in the system to do that.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

If Jones would not have improved after BB took over, I would think goalie would be our #1 need. But with him showing improvement, I expect that we focus on getting more skill in the top-6. Right now, we have 4 legit top-6 forwards. Need atleast one more. We need an upgrade over Labanc in the top-6 as well but worst case, we can pair him with Hertl and Meier to shelter him a bit. Ideally, I would like to see Labanc playing on the 3rd line but we don't have the forwards in the system to do that.

I think we have enough cap space for a proven top 6 complimentary forward, a middle 6 glue guy (like Ward was), and a 1B goalie.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think we have enough cap space for a proven top 6 complimentary forward, a middle 6 glue guy (like Ward was), and a 1B goalie.

We really don't have all that cap space.

The more I look at it, I am thinking we sign Toffoli, re-sign Labanc and bring back Noesen and Jumbo. I am just throwing numbers here but thinking Toffoli signs for around 5.5M AAV, Jumbo and Noesen both for 1M AAV each and Labanc (hardest to predict) for about 3M AAV. This would leave us with about 1.2M in cap space.

At goalie, I think we start with Jones and Melnichuk. Though Melnichuk has not played in NA, he has done very well for himself in the KHL. They will (hopefully) try out all 3 in pre-season/dev camp to see which one is the best option as the backup.

 

[DG93]

We really don't have all that cap space.

The more I look at it, I am thinking we sign Toffoli, re-sign Labanc and bring back Noesen and Jumbo. I am just throwing numbers here but thinking Toffoli signs for around 5.5M AAV, Jumbo and Noesen both for 1M AAV each and Labanc (hardest to predict) for about 3M AAV. This would leave us with about 1.2M in cap space.

Not sure here you got that cap space #. SJ has almost 15M in cap space with 9F, 5D, and Jones. If they can dump Sorensen, that becomes 16.5M. Signing Toffoli, Labanc, Noesen, and Jumbo for those #s puts them at 6M in space, which should be enough to sign 2 depth D, a 1B goalie, and another middle-6 guy for 3M. That gives you a lineup of Timo-Cooch-Toffoli, Kane-Hertl-middle-6 add, Gregor-Jumbo-Labanc, Bergmann-True-Noesen + Gambrell/PM as the 13F.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Not sure here you got that cap space #. SJ has almost 15M in cap space with 9F, 5D, and Jones. If they can dump Sorensen, that becomes 16.5M. Signing Toffoli, Labanc, Noesen, and Jumbo for those #s puts them at 6M in space, which should be enough to sign 2 depth D, a 1B goalie, and another middle-6 guy for 3M. That gives you a lineup of Timo-Cooch-Toffoli, Kane-Hertl-middle-6 add, Gregor-Jumbo-Labanc, Bergmann-True-Noesen + Gambrell/PM as the 13F.

Right. I basically went with filling out the rest of the roster with what we had:

Kane-Couture-Toffoli
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Sorensen-Jumbo-Noesen
Bergmann-Gambrell-Gregor

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ferrafor-Burns
Simek-Pasichnuk

Martin
Melnichuk

That roster gives us 4.6M space available.

The idea is rotate that bottom-6 with whoever does the best job in pre-season and development camp. All of them are under 1M AAV so should not be that much of a difference in overall salary cap no matter who we plug in those spots. If you can somehow get rid of Sorensen and swap him with another kid, it probably frees up around 600K more raising our available cap space to 5.2M+.

I do not know if that is enough to get the middle-6 winger and two bottom pairing RD's. I threw Pasichnuk above as RD but he is actually an LD. Outside of Burns and Karlsson the only RD's we have are Merkley, Meloche (RFA) and Roy (RFA). Total of 0 NHL games between the 3 of those so I am guessing we definitely bring on some 3rd pairing RD via trade or FA signing. My hope is that we can use our depth at LD (Carrick or Desimone) and swap them for someone similar who is a natural RD at a similar cap hit (700K). Still don't know if there is enough to get that middle-6 forward to push Labanc down to the 3rd line.

 

[KirbyDots]

Right. I basically went with filling out the rest of the roster with what we had:

Kane-Couture-Toffoli
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Sorensen-Jumbo-Noesen
Bergmann-Gambrell-Gregor

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ferrafor-Burns
Simek-Pasichnuk

Martin
Melnichuk

That roster gives us 4.6M space available.

Scoring is the main priority, DW needs to be bold in ufa and bring in one of the better options. Toffoli would be a great add but we need more than that. I fully expect a trade, probably at the draft, move Sorensen for a pick and bring in a young tweener scorer to fill out the top 9 or a 2nd line top 6 winger from a team looking to shed salary. I understand you're simply filling out the roster with what we have but that bottom six is ugly. I think Noesen has more to give, hopefully Gregor too, maybe Leonard or one of the euro signings, but if there is anything we've learned from last season it's not to put all our eggs in the "kids will step up" basket. Also, if Marleau wants to come back I think it's safe to pencil him in, we need depth, just hopefully DW can bring in enough firepower that he isn't forced into the top 6.

The team some options for 6d, I can see Pasichnuk pulling a Ferraro and making the team outta camp, if he's ready then this is probably our best option but that's a huge unknown, Middleton probably has the inside line at being the 6-7D as he plays a not great not terrible game and is cheap, Merkley needs more time in all likelihood but my get a cup of coffee in the bigs, they could always bring back Heed if he's still willing to come back cheap. Basically a vet for 6d is low priority unless we can free up some space, there are always vets at the deadline if we improve enough to be buyers.

I'm high on Menichuk, but I think they'll bring in a vet. We shall see.

 

[Harbessix]

I feel like Pasichnuk is also a LD is he not? Not ideal to have him start his offside. Ferraro definitely looked less effective when asked to do the same.

 

[Barrie22]

So what happens if we get scoring but our goaltending is still league worst?

As what was said by other posters. Under boughner, jones became a average to good goalie. Get him some more help upfront and the team will be much better then how it ended.

 

[The Ice Hockey Dude]

At this point what is the teams #1 need? A goalie, or scoring?

Scoring (2-3 top 9 forwards) and some physical players one at forward and one at D. And better goal-tending.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think the biggest needs are either a good 3C or a good top 6 winger. It depends on how they want to work on building out the roster. We don't have any depth up front what so ever but we do have 4-5 top 6 forwards. We could build out the top 6 completely and fill out the bottom 6 after. Or we could get another quality center and have 3 solid forward pairs on 3 lines and have fill ins for the 3rd guy. Seeing how our fill ins will probably really suck, I think getting the top 6 winger will do more for us next season than a top 9 center.

 

[DG93]

Right. I basically went with filling out the rest of the roster with what we had:

Kane-Couture-Toffoli
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Sorensen-Jumbo-Noesen
Bergmann-Gambrell-Gregor

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ferrafor-Burns
Simek-Pasichnuk

Martin
Melnichuk

That roster gives us 4.6M space available.

The idea is rotate that bottom-6 with whoever does the best job in pre-season and development camp. All of them are under 1M AAV so should not be that much of a difference in overall salary cap no matter who we plug in those spots. If you can somehow get rid of Sorensen and swap him with another kid, it probably frees up around 600K more raising our available cap space to 5.2M+.

I do not know if that is enough to get the middle-6 winger and two bottom pairing RD's. I threw Pasichnuk above as RD but he is actually an LD. Outside of Burns and Karlsson the only RD's we have are Merkley, Meloche (RFA) and Roy (RFA). Total of 0 NHL games between the 3 of those so I am guessing we definitely bring on some 3rd pairing RD via trade or FA signing. My hope is that we can use our depth at LD (Carrick or Desimone) and swap them for someone similar who is a natural RD at a similar cap hit (700K). Still don't know if there is enough to get that middle-6 forward to push Labanc down to the 3rd line.

So you have 6Mish to work with (assuming Sorensen can be traded) while needing to add 2F and 1D. I feel like that's enough to add a guy like Killorn via trade or Craig Smith in FA for 4-4.5M while also adding True as the 13th F and a bottom-pair D for 1M. It's tight, and this doesn't account for a vet backup goalie costing more than Melnichuk. 28-39-Toffoli, 9-48-Smith, 73-19-62, 12-70-11, 7 is a decent forward group.

 

[FunkyPhin]

Right. I basically went with filling out the rest of the roster with what we had:

Kane-Couture-Toffoli
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Sorensen-Jumbo-Noesen
Bergmann-Gambrell-Gregor

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ferrafor-Burns
Simek-Pasichnuk

Martin
Melnichuk

That roster gives us 4.6M space available.

The idea is rotate that bottom-6 with whoever does the best job in pre-season and development camp. All of them are under 1M AAV so should not be that much of a difference in overall salary cap no matter who we plug in those spots. If you can somehow get rid of Sorensen and swap him with another kid, it probably frees up around 600K more raising our available cap space to 5.2M+.

I do not know if that is enough to get the middle-6 winger and two bottom pairing RD's. I threw Pasichnuk above as RD but he is actually an LD. Outside of Burns and Karlsson the only RD's we have are Merkley, Meloche (RFA) and Roy (RFA). Total of 0 NHL games between the 3 of those so I am guessing we definitely bring on some 3rd pairing RD via trade or FA signing. My hope is that we can use our depth at LD (Carrick or Desimone) and swap them for someone similar who is a natural RD at a similar cap hit (700K). Still don't know if there is enough to get that middle-6 forward to push Labanc down to the 3rd line.

I'd swap toffoli for Dadonov as I think he's just plain better, even if it costs an extra 1.5-2 more AAV. I'd probably have leonard in the bottom six as well. So either 3.6 or 3.1 to work with if we can trade sorenson and get another 1.5 back, maybe theres another deal that can be made for a fringe top-6 player. Either way I'm not very excited about next years prospects, its really the same problem we had this year we lack a considerable amount of depth, as the roster falls off heavy after the top 6.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So you have 6Mish to work with (assuming Sorensen can be traded) while needing to add 2F and 1D. I feel like that's enough to add a guy like Killorn via trade or Craig Smith in FA for 4-4.5M while also adding True as the 13th F and a bottom-pair D for 1M. It's tight, and this doesn't account for a vet backup goalie costing more than Melnichuk. 28-39-Toffoli, 9-48-Smith, 73-19-62, 12-70-11, 7 is a decent forward group.

Yeah I have severe doubts about getting Toffoli at 5.5 and Melnichuk being put straight into the backup spot. They're going to have to spend somewhere between 1.5-3 mil to bring in a goalie of merit otherwise they're just praying whoever they bring in works out rather than actually having any sort of pedigree. I mean Talbot got 2.75 mil to go to Calgary after having a crap year in Edmonton and Philly. Now I'm perfectly alright with taking stabs in the dark with goaltending but our team's management hasn't typically done that. Dell earned it after a couple seasons in the minors. They traded for Reimer after Stalock was going down who got to that spot after like four years of minor league play to earn it. The organization doesn't really have that goalie at the ready so chances are they will either keep Dell or they will find a UFA that is coming off some solid play like Greiss or Talbot or Khudobin but it's going to depend on the asking price. I don't expect them to go super cheap in net for Dell's spot but I would expect them to go cheaper up front. They get that one top six player and use the rest to get a goalie then fill out the rest cheap.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I'd swap toffoli for Dadonov as I think he's just plain better, even if it costs an extra 1.5-2 more AAV. I'd probably have leonard in the bottom six as well. So either 3.6 or 3.1 to work with if we can trade sorenson and get another 1.5 back, maybe theres another deal that can be made for a fringe top-6 player. Either way I'm not very excited about next years prospects, its really the same problem we had this year we lack a considerable amount of depth, as the roster falls off heavy after the top 6.

In principle, I actually agree. I think if anything we should be focused on improving the top-6 as much as possible via FA (or trade) than the goalie or the bottom-6 depth. Sign a better player long term even if it costs more instead of trying to band-aid the team.

It is seriously depressing to see that we will be using 62.5M of our cap space in 21-22 with only 4 top-4 forwards signed. Our D situation is fairly well covered with 5 of our D-men signed for a while, but not sure how Vlasic and Burns will look like in 2-3 years as well. It only makes matters worse that we don't really have any true top-6 F prospects on our team either.

So yeah, address top-6 F in trade/FA and let the prospects fill the rest of the gaps. This team is never going to rebuild with its current management so not sure how long we will remain in such a state for.

 

[Cas]

How much would Dell be likely to earn if he's resigned? It seems to me that he's in line for a smaller contract and maybe the best move is to bring him back at $1 million for one or two years if other options are too expensive, but I don't know if that's realistic. I also don't know if better options might be in for a similar deal.

 

[Barrie22]

How much would Dell be likely to earn if he's resigned? It seems to me that he's in line for a smaller contract and maybe the best move is to bring him back at $1 million for one or two years if other options are too expensive, but I don't know if that's realistic. I also don't know if better options might be in for a similar deal.

He will pribably sign for 2 or 2.5 some where.

 

[Jargon]

My big predictions for pre-season:

-DW will make one big trade for a young top line forward for some of our D depth/smattering of third line players and picks.

-He will sign an FA forward.

-Jones will get one last chance.

-Merkley is going to be in the opening lineup.

 

[Levie]

My big predictions for pre-season:

-DW will make one big trade for a young top line forward for some of our D depth/smattering of third line players and picks.

-He will sign an FA forward.

-Jones will get one last chance.

-Merkley is going to be in the opening lineup.

This is the most unlikely. Great if he succeeds but I could easily see him getting Muellered.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

How much would Dell be likely to earn if he's resigned? It seems to me that he's in line for a smaller contract and maybe the best move is to bring him back at $1 million for one or two years if other options are too expensive, but I don't know if that's realistic. I also don't know if better options might be in for a similar deal.

There's no way that Dell only gets 1 mil to come back. He'll at least get 2 mil wherever he goes. It likely won't be a long deal but two years at 2-2.5 mil is about what I expect from his next deal. But that's about what I also expect the team to spend on the spot unless they pull off a miracle to get rid of Jones w/o taking a bad goalie back in return.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This is the most unlikely. Great if he succeeds but I could easily see him getting Muellered.

I don't think it's possible for him to get Muellered unless the team trades Burns. Mueller's problem wasn't even that he was playing in the NHL when he was. His problem was that they forced him into the top four when he clearly wasn't ready for it. Merkley won't get put into the top four with Burns and Karlsson ahead of him. Even under the best of best case scenarios, he blows up like Makar or someone like that, he's still not going to play ahead of them so it'll limit his time and it'll limit his competition level. If he makes it as the RD3, that's great for all involved, imo. He can learn and adapt and grow in that spot for at least a couple to three seasons.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I don't think it's possible for him to get Muellered unless the team trades Burns. Mueller's problem wasn't even that he was playing in the NHL when he was. His problem was that they forced him into the top four when he clearly wasn't ready for it. Merkley won't get put into the top four with Burns and Karlsson ahead of him. Even under the best of best case scenarios, he blows up like Makar or someone like that, he's still not going to play ahead of them so it'll limit his time and it'll limit his competition level. If he makes it as the RD3, that's great for all involved, imo. He can learn and adapt and grow in that spot for at least a couple to three seasons.

I agree as well.

Our team D-core is a lot stronger now that it was when we drafted Mueller. Plus Mueller got pushed into the NHL in his draft+1 year and was expected to perform as a top-4D. Merkley will be in his draft+2 year and there is not going to be much of an expectation from him this year. Its more of a 'lets see what you can do' than a 'we need you to perform' kind of situation. Him being paired with either Simek or Ferraro is also something that will give him a partner better suited to his style.

If anything, I think Merkley can be put in a position to succeed right away.

 

[Barrie22]

I agree as well.

Our team D-core is a lot stronger now that it was when we drafted Mueller. Plus Mueller got pushed into the NHL in his draft+1 year and was expected to perform as a top-4D. Merkley will be in his draft+2 year and there is not going to be much of an expectation from him this year. Its more of a 'lets see what you can do' than a 'we need you to perform' kind of situation. Him being paired with either Simek or Ferraro is also something that will give him a partner better suited to his style.

If anything, I think Merkley can be put in a position to succeed right away.

Also helps that merkely is much better at most aspects of the game coming into the league.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I agree as well.

Our team D-core is a lot stronger now that it was when we drafted Mueller. Plus Mueller got pushed into the NHL in his draft+1 year and was expected to perform as a top-4D. Merkley will be in his draft+2 year and there is not going to be much of an expectation from him this year. Its more of a 'lets see what you can do' than a 'we need you to perform' kind of situation. Him being paired with either Simek or Ferraro is also something that will give him a partner better suited to his style.

If anything, I think Merkley can be put in a position to succeed right away.

Pretty much. Merkley should just be a depth guy until they need to move on from Burns. When it's clear that Burns can no longer be a Shark or Merkley comes along to such a degree that he forces the situation then we can give him more responsibility but it's not needed now nor should it be needed for the next couple seasons.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Also helps that merkely is much better at most aspects of the game coming into the league.

Yep. Mueller was bigger but he did not play physical. He was expected to be a Vlasic-lite but was really not that good at D either.

 

[STL Shark]

He will pribably sign for 2 or 2.5 some where.

No shot of that. There are so many backup goalies available this offseason. If we could not literally give him away last offseason at $1.9 million, don't see anyone giving him $2-2.5 million just because he had a hot 5 week stretch. Given SJ was the team that gave him his break, I think he can be had for around $1.2-1.6 million. Don't see the demand league wide being that great for a guy like him, especially not at that price point.