Speculation: 2020-2021 General Lightning Discussion - Defending Champions Edition: Part 2

[Lolaimbot]

Lol that Toronto board is in shambles. Screenshot and bookmark are your friend.

Am I a bad person if I enjoyed yesterday almost as much as the cup win last year?

 

[These Are The Days]

Last night was great. The longer this goes the harder the off-season questions are going to be to answer.

 

[The Gongshow]

Last night was great. The longer this goes the harder the off-season questions are going to be to answer.

We'll at least have someone taken by Seattle which helps us either way.

I think Seattle probably takes Gourde which is gonna suck, but at least we'll have some cap space. Then JBB HAS to move Johnson this off season as well

 

[BoltsFanSinceDay1]

Please not Gourdo.

 

[The Gongshow]

Please not Gourdo.

I'm thinking we protect

Stamkos
Kuch
Point
Cirelli
Hedman
McDonagh
Serg
Cernak

Vasi

Seattle could take: Palat, Killorn, Gourde, Johnson (PLEASE), Foote, Maroon, Stephens, Rutta, McBackup

 

[Point21]

From the Athletic, looks like they go by the lines that were together the most for everyone. Could easily swap Stamkos and Cirelli around and we check every box

 

[Hoek]

Okay not that the Habs are good but how are you not gonna give them at least the Top-10 caliber starting goaltender one, lol.

 

[The Gongshow]

From the Athletic, looks like they go by the lines that were together the most for everyone. Could easily swap Stamkos and Cirelli around and we check every box
View attachment 442254

Krejci is 35 and not a top line centre,
Brock Nelson (don't watch enough to know)
Trocheck had a good year, but is he a #1 on any other team?
William Karlsson, he had that amazing 40 goal year and hasn't done much since.

I'm not saying Cirelli is a top line centre either or better than these guys, but these teams don't deserve that blue yes

 

[These Are The Days]

I hate to say it boys but

Stamkos
Point
Kucherov
Cirelli

Hedman
McDonagh
Cernak
Sergachev

Vasilevskiy

All said we're sitting on $61,425,000 and $20,0750,000 in cap space left with those 9 guys. That shouldn't be a horribly big deal

But it is because about half those guys on that list are on bridge deals and are gonna cost even more soon.

When I say "the harder the off-season questions are going to be to answer" I'm not kidding. Y'all better pray that cap goes up in one hell of a hurry. $3 million in 2022-2023 ain't gonna fix a damn thing. It just means more money for Point's next deal and you better pray to that same God Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak don't make a whole lot more than they are now.

If we are fortunate enough to go back to back, we're gonna be in a great position to address the long term financials of the team and surrounding the core with younger, less expensive talent. I'm not saying "Tank for Wright" "Tank for Bedard" either. I'm saying we've got like $17 million in cap to cut and even if we did I don't think we could ice a full roster even if we wanted to. We literally have no choice. And if it reaches DEFCON 1 and JBB has to launch the nukes and trade someone like Cirelli but someone like St. Louis does some dumb shit like offer a 2022 1st you take it and run because I don't see how that team is gonna hang on any longer as a playoff contender and you're instantly in the lottery mix.

 

[Hoek]

We're not the only team with cap problems though. FAs are gonna have to leave some money on the table across the board unless they're willing to play for some absolutely dire teams.

 

[These Are The Days]

We're not the only team with cap problems though. FAs are gonna have to leave some money on the table across the board unless they're willing to play for some absolutely dire teams.

If we're lucky that'll be Goodrow. You could tell me tonight "It's a bloodbath. We're losing Killorn, Coleman, Johnson, Savard, McBackup and trading Barre Boulet to Seattle" and I'd shrug my shoulders and say "That sounds about right. We had a lot of veteran contracts we needed to get out from" But Goodrow? We can afford to double his pay and sign him to a 2 year deal.

Edit: I'm on record as being in favor of Palat finishing out his contract with us and playing next year out with us. We could definitely sell high on him at the TDL if we weren't having the best of years

 

[DFC]

Last night was great. The longer this goes the harder the off-season questions are going to be to answer.

The other side of that is Killorn has been so good that teams aren't going to be able to shy away from his contract. Edmonton will call us for sure.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Okay not that the Habs are good but how are you not gonna give them at least the Top-10 caliber starting goaltender one, lol.

Vintage Carey Price made a strong comeback in that series against the Leafs, but across the last four seasons, a .909 S% in 198 games isn't hugely impressive, and he was only at .901 this season. But given that it is Carey Price we're talking about, and we just saw him at the top of his game against the Leafs, I do suppose there's an argument you could've made there for him.

 

[bov]

If I'm Seattle I take Palat. It's on Brisebois to offer a package that is more valuable.

If you're Ron Francis, what would it take? Would you accept Johnson, Foote and a 1st rounder in 2022 instead? Or Killorn+Johnson etc.

 

[Point21]

 

[The Gongshow]

I hate to say it boys but

Stamkos
Point
Kucherov
Cirelli

Hedman
McDonagh
Cernak
Sergachev

Vasilevskiy

All said we're sitting on $61,425,000 and $20,0750,000 in cap space left with those 9 guys. That shouldn't be a horribly big deal

But it is because about half those guys on that list are on bridge deals and are gonna cost even more soon.

When I say "the harder the off-season questions are going to be to answer" I'm not kidding. Y'all better pray that cap goes up in one hell of a hurry. $3 million in 2022-2023 ain't gonna fix a damn thing. It just means more money for Point's next deal and you better pray to that same God Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak don't make a whole lot more than they are now.

If we are fortunate enough to go back to back, we're gonna be in a great position to address the long term financials of the team and surrounding the core with younger, less expensive talent. I'm not saying "Tank for Wright" "Tank for Bedard" either. I'm saying we've got like $17 million in cap to cut and even if we did I don't think we could ice a full roster even if we wanted to. We literally have no choice. And if it reaches DEFCON 1 and JBB has to launch the nukes and trade someone like Cirelli but someone like St. Louis does some dumb shit like offer a 2022 1st you take it and run because I don't see how that team is gonna hang on any longer as a playoff contender and you're instantly in the lottery mix.

Thats still basically our top 6 and top 4, so we'll be in decent shape and have hopefully 2-3 third line guys, resign Goodrow, Colton, maybe they don't take Gourde. Kids are gonna need to fill the holes for a bit.

 

[These Are The Days]

The other side of that is Killorn has been so good that teams aren't going to be able to shy away from his contract. Edmonton will call us for sure.

If anything we're going to be able to sell high on Killorn. As of tonight Killorn's tied with Point for most playoff goals on the team and has 2 more assists than the latter. It's never pretty but he somehow always gets it done in the playoffs. Edmonton is fantastic speculation. I'm having a hard time remembering if it was him or Johnson but either of them had a one of those 6 degrees of separation deals where landing on the Oilers would've been perfectly fine with them.

We would be nuts to give him up for free to Seattle. Whatever we have to give up for them to take someone else like Johnson is going to be effectively neutralized by what we can get in return for trading Killorn to someone else.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I trust that Brisebois will do something to piss off hockey fandom. I can't wait to see what it is.

 

[These Are The Days]

Thats still basically our top 6 and top 4, so we'll be in decent shape and have hopefully 2-3 third line guys, resign Goodrow, Colton, maybe they don't take Gourde. Kids are gonna need to fill the holes for a bit.

I don't know man. The cap is gonna have to go up in a hurry and retroactively scale for lost growth. Realistically, it WILL go up when those sweet TV deals kick in. But how much and when is the wildcard. The combined raises to Point, Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev is gonna be a combined $6 million minimum from what we are already paying guys now. But if you roll those 9 guys into 2023 with only a $85 million cap and we're gonna be recanting Jonathan Drouin to talk about how ugly that's gonna get

 

[These Are The Days]

I trust that Brisebois will do something to piss off hockey fandom. I can't wait to see what it is.

He'll have us ready to win a Cup in a matter of 2 years or less and it'll come on the back of all the assets we got in return for guys like Killorn and Johnson AND we'll be in better financial shape.



The salt is going to be amazing

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I'm totally expecting to lose Gourde. He's going to be the most desirable that isn't Coop's boy. I think Brisebois will try to retain Killorn, Palat, and Johnson for Coop.

He'll have us ready to win a Cup in a matter of 2 years or less and it'll come on the back of all the assets we got in return for guys like Killorn and Johnson AND we'll be in better financial shape.



The salt is going to be amazing

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm totally expecting to lose Gourde. He's going to be the most desirable that isn't Coop's boy. I think Brisebois will try to retain Killorn, Palat, and Johnson for Coop.

While I don't find that impossible, I find it unlikely. Gourde's NTC is full blown for a couple more years. Palat could be sold high at next year's TDL if we are out of contention: and that's certainly not impossible either. With the core we have and hope to preserve we're only talking about a brief period of time if we were to backslide at all.

If it wasn't for the fact we have to address our financial health like this we'd be odds on favorite to win it yet again next year

 

[Stammertime91]

Stamkos - Point - Kucherov
Palat - Cirelli - Colton/ABB
Joseph - Gourde - Goodrow
Maroon - Stephens - ABB/Colton

Is still a good forward group.

Hedman - Cernak
McD - Foote/Thomas
Sergachev - Foote/Thomas/Schenn

Vasy
Gibson

I haven't checked salaries in a while, but if we could fit with this, it's still a decent lineup. Not to mention, we may find another replacement in the AHL or training camp throughout the season.

I can't fathom losing Gourde. If we lose Coleman AND Gourde, we might as well put off another run for a couple years. We don't have replacements waiting for Gourde. He brings a game different than our other centers and was one of our best forwards this year. I can see us losing Coleman, but not Gourde too. At least not this year.

 

[Sky04]

Stamkos - Point - Kucherov
Palat - Cirelli - Colton/ABB
Joseph - Gourde - Goodrow
Maroon - Stephens - ABB/Colton

Is still a good forward group.

Hedman - Cernak
McD - Foote/Thomas
Sergachev - Foote/Thomas/Schenn

Vasy
Gibson

I haven't checked salaries in a while, but if we could fit with this, it's still a decent lineup. Not to mention, we may find another replacement in the AHL or training camp throughout the season.

I can't fathom losing Gourde. If we lose Coleman AND Gourde, we might as well put off another run for a couple years. We don't have replacements waiting for Gourde. He brings a game different than our other centers and was one of our best forwards this year. I can see us losing Coleman, but not Gourde too. At least not this year.

With that lineup assuming our backup is at league minimum, Foote/Colton sign at 800-900k~, Goodrow at 2m and a 13th forward at league minimum for a 22 man roster we'd be ~700-800k over the cap.

I'm starting to side with @HoseEmDown and think Palat should be moved over Killorn this season, Killorn is cheaper and Palat will return more. Palat's production lately has been in large part to playing with Kucherov/Point and getting top PP time this year in Kuch's absence. Killorn also has an extra year over Palat which means we can trade him the following year with term to another team and get returns for both players instead of just 1.

Stamkos can replace Palat on the top line without hurting it, Palat on his own might produce a little more than Killorn but Killorn plays the PK has been hitting some good numbers lately too, I think the capspace + returns outweigh it here, especially if you can consider we can get another return by trading Killorn the year after as well.

 

[Peacefool]

As much as I like Coleman i think we should try our best to keep Goodrow, next year or maybe after 2 years Colton can evolve in COleman style player.I don`t want to lose Gourde. As much as I like Killorn,I would like to him to go away instead of Gourde. I would love if Ben Thomas could progress, cuz I liked him much better than Foote, and propably give chanse to Anelfelt or sign Miftakhov,maybe in season 22/23 one of them could be solid backup for us.