Speculation: 2019 UFA Defenseman

[dkollidas]

So I know it's pretty far away, but there are quite a few Truly Elite or even Franchise defensemen that become UFA's after the 2018-2019 season. So just for fun, who, if any, end up actually hitting July 1 as UFA's...
****Rank from Most likely to leave to least likely.

Drew Doughty-LA
O.E. Larsson-Ari
Ryan McDonagh-NYR
Erik Karlsson-Ott
Ryan Ellis-Nsh.

Personally I think there is a decent sized chance that any of them could want to find new pastures in the next couple seasons.

I know it's highly likely most if not all end up staying put,

* my list isn't a reflection of who I think is most likely (my belief would be Ekman Larsson would be most likely, specifically if Arizona doesn't start winning within the next two years).

Click to read more...

 

[seafoam]

Ellis

Ekman-Larsson

McDonagh



Doughty
Karlsson

 

[Captain Controversy]

Hopefully the oilers can get one of these guys. Would be nice.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

If LA goes into rebuild mode and trades Doughty then he could possibly hit the market.

 

[ViktorBaeArvidsson]

No way Ellis heads into free agency. Or at least I hope...

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think there is a decent chance both OEL and Doughty hit the market, LA is on the way down and Arizona is Arizona they just seem to be stuck going neither up nor down, they just kind of exist

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

No way Ellis heads into free agency. Or at least I hope...

I can't see why he would you guys are loaded for the future, and the present

 

[CraigsList]

No way Ellis heads into free agency. Or at least I hope...

Then be prepared to pay more than 2.5m.

 

[BLNY]

Anything is possible, but the only guy I see realistically considering a move would be Ellis. Of all those teams affected, only the Preds can easily swallow the loss. I'm not saying Ellis is as good, but the other clubs simply aren't as deep. They all have a glaring need to keep their player. Nashville could let Ellis walk and invest in another position.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Ellis is going to hit a payday compared to what he's playing for now

 

[Tysonson3]

Ellis will be retained as long as he and Nashville both want to stay together. 5-6 mil AAV for around 6 years seems likely

 

[King Weber]

Then be prepared to pay more than 2.5m.

Rinne is also an UFA in 2019 so paying Ellis what he needs shouldn't be a problem.

 

[McMetal]

OEL is a prime candidate to bolt, and he's going to be worth a mint in free agency. Partly because he's never won anything in AZ, but I think the media often overlooks how good he is because of the market he plays in (and the bad team). He'll likely want recognition just as much as a chance to play meaningful hockey for once.

McDonagh and Karlsson have a .001% chance to bolt. They wear a C, play on good teams, and their teams will do what it takes to keep them. Neither will touch free agency.

Ellis... Maybe? I think Nashville will do what it takes to keep their top 4 together, but it depends on where his head is. If he wants to chase a UFA paycheck at all costs, then he will, if he wants to win he'll probably stay in Nashville.

Doughty might actually be likely to go too. LA is about to enter a pretty painful chapter, and they're squeezed by some bad contracts that could force them to make some very hard choices about whether they should pay to dump some cap or just let Doughty go to try to recoup some assets. Doughty could go just about anywhere, get a massive paycheck as a #1D with two cup rings, and have a chance to try to lead another team to the cup. I can see why both parties might want to cut ties.

 

[firstemperor]

I think only McDonagh is unlikely to bolt. Everyone else I could make a case for.

Doughty- regime change...already accomplished so much with the Kings. New challenge? Core is getting older too.

OEL- Hasn't won anything with the Yotes. But could change shortly. Went through a very recent regime change as well. He hasn't even played in the playoffs yet.

Ellis- Kind of the odd-man out on the list in terms of quality IMO. Everyone else is a #1 whereas he's more of a #2. Nash is stacked and he's been there his entire career...but isn't exactly their most relied upon d-man. He's kind of the de-facto #3/#4 on a stacked blueline. Maybe he seeks a new challenge/bigger deal? Hard to justify his deal being more than Josi.

Karlsson- Really depends how competitive the Sens are but he's everything for that franchise. I would say it's unlikely he leaves but if they begin to trend downward I wouldn't be as convinced.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

As a Rangers fan, there could be a very small chance McDonagh leaves if he ends up wanting something crazy like 8 years at 8-8.5 mil. He'd be 30, and I'm not sure the Rangers would pay him something like that..

 

[TorontoTrades]

Karlsson depends on how loose with the purse string a cheap by reputation owner and team are. Karlsson would be offered 11-12 on the market and if Sens try and keep him at 10 or less he may explore his options. I would still say slim chance he's not this generations Alfredsson (his mentor) to the franchise but I would say there it's not set in stone

 

[CraigsList]

I think only McDonagh is unlikely to bolt. Everyone else I could make a case for.

Doughty- regime change...already accomplished so much with the Kings. New challenge? Core is getting older too.

OEL- Hasn't won anything with the Yotes. But could change shortly. Went through a very recent regime change as well. He hasn't even played in the playoffs yet.

Ellis- Kind of the odd-man out on the list in terms of quality IMO. Everyone else is a #1 whereas he's more of a #2. Nash is stacked and he's been there his entire career...but isn't exactly their most relied upon d-man. He's kind of the de-facto #3/#4 on a stacked blueline. Maybe he seeks a new challenge/bigger deal? Hard to justify his deal being more than Josi.

Karlsson- Really depends how competitive the Sens are but he's everything for that franchise. I would say it's unlikely he leaves but if they begin to trend downward I wouldn't be as convinced.

Um... he played in the playoffs in 2012.

 

[firstemperor]

Um... he played in the playoffs in 2012.

Yea, my mistake, that was an oversight. Besides that run, it's been a while since he's played.

 

[thadd]

I think Doughty goes to Toronto, Ellis gets overpaid to be a #3 or #2 d-man and the rest stay with their teams.

Only reason I think Doughty goes to Toronto is because of a tweet he made earlier this year where he said something along the lines of "Players from Ontario secretly wish they could play for Toronto"

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Karlsson depends on how loose with the purse string a cheap by reputation owner and team are. Karlsson would be offered 11-12 on the market and if Sens try and keep him at 10 or less he may explore his options. I would still say slim chance he's not this generations Alfredsson (his mentor) to the franchise but I would say there it's not set in stone

I think Ottawa would gut their roster of contracts before letting him walk.

 

[internetdotcom]

I think Ottawa would gut their roster of contracts before letting him walk.

This. If Karlsson were to leave, we'd be starting a full-blown rebuild. EK and McDavid are the top 2 players in the world IMO, and both young. You hang on to those with all your might.

 

[Trapper]

Hopefully the oilers can get one of these guys. Would be nice.

Any team would want any of those guys.
I hope mine is in on 1 as well.
Of course you would expect 99.9% chance they are already re-signed.

 

[Ciao]

I think Doughty goes to Toronto, Ellis gets overpaid to be a #3 or #2 d-man and the rest stay with their teams.

Only reason I think Doughty goes to Toronto is because of a tweet he made earlier this year where he said something along the lines of "Players from Ontario secretly wish they could play for Toronto"

I wouldn’t read too much into that. It's just a Tweet, which is pretty much nothing at all. Even Donald Trump can tweet -- that's how low the threshhold of intelligent thought that goes into these things is.

LA is a very nice place to live and play. Dewey has it made there, and I doubt that he would trade that for anything.

 

[Kaibur]

OEL has been deeper in the playoffs with the Coyotes than Ovechkin has been with the Capitals.

They asked OEL what he wanted and they delievered. They went out and got him Hjalmarsson. He asked them to bring his brother to Tucson and they did.

They've got a huge amount of cap space and budget open specifically to re-sign him.

So, other than homerism and wishful thinking, what about that says that OEL is likely to bolt?

 

[major major]

I actually think OEL has better odds of staying than any of them. Coyotes will be on a big upswing at that point, and they'll definitely pay him.

Doughty, McDonagh, and Karlsson might all have the bad team problem in two years. It's too soon to know. I'd guess McDonagh is the most likely to stay, followed by Karlsson and Doughty.

Ellis is going to get paid like a #2D and I doubt Nashville would (or should) pay him. Watch him go to Arizona!