Speculation: 2019 offseason thread II

[majormajor]

Torsts pushed Zucc out of the NHL since he didnt believe in him due to his size. He was brough back by Glent Sather.

Based on that I don't think Zucc wants much to do with Torts, but who knows, maybe he's had a change of heart since then,its been many years

God dammit.

Torts to the rescue again.

I'm going to hold out hope that playing with Marty St. Louis the year after Torts was fired gave Zucc a better impression of Torts. Marty is effusive about Torts and is the kind of player that Zucc would have tried to learn from.

 

[majormajor]

uh.... come again?

Zuccarrello's last 3 seasons, point production wise:

2016-2017 season: 0.66 PPG
2017-2018 season: 0.80 PPG
2018-2019 season (including playoffs): 0.93 PPG.

lol, you couldn't be more wrong my friend.

I'll say he's wrong about the trend so far, but at age 32 it's likely going to be the trend. That's why the 3 year deal part is important.

I'm imagining Duchene (who will be nearing 29 next Fall) and Zucc's point production year by year like this:

2019-20 - 60 - 60
2020-21 - 55 - 55
2021-22 - 70 - 50
2022-23 - 60 - 40
2023-24 - 50 - 30
2024-25 - 50 - 20
2025-26 - 45 - retired
2026-27 - 30 - retired

I'd still sign Duchene at $8m x 8, but the back half is hard to stomach. If Jarmo's drafting really pans out it's going to be tricky to pay everyone, and starting off with a low-end 1C at $8m is going to throw off the salary structure. Dubois will want more. Zucc will be on a cheaper deal or gone by the time Seth needs to be re-upped.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I'll say he's wrong about the trend so far, but at age 32 it's likely going to be the trend. That's why the 3 year deal part is important.

I'm imagining Duchene (who will be nearing 29 next Fall) and Zucc's point production year by year like this:

2019-20 - 60 - 60
2020-21 - 55 - 55
2021-22 - 70 - 50
2022-23 - 60 - 40
2023-24 - 50 - 30
2024-25 - 50 - 20
2025-26 - 45 - retired
2026-27 - 30 - retired

I'd still sign Duchene at $8m x 8, but the back half is hard to stomach. If Jarmo's drafting really pans out it's going to be tricky to pay everyone, and starting off with a low-end 1C at $8m is going to throw off the salary structure. Dubois will want more. Zucc will be on a cheaper deal or gone by the time Seth needs to be re-upped.

I don't know if your projections are right or not, but I'm not gung ho on signing Duchene. While he's a good player, he's going to cost an arm and a leg with more than likely declining production starting in a few years. I don't see him as a dominant player for the CBJ. A low end serviceable #1C for a few years and then a 2 or 3C for the duration of the contract.

I like the overpay Zuccarello concept. 3 years @$7 million or so is reducing long risk significantly. Short term (3 year) points production should be in the same range as Duchene.

Great concept. Don't know if it's doable or not.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Huh. If we can somehow keep Duchene onboard and also sign Hayes, our center depth looks reeeeal good. Wonder if Torts would experiment with Duchene on the top line LW with Dubois and Atkinson.

 

[majormajor]

Huh. If we can somehow keep Duchene onboard and also sign Hayes, our center depth looks reeeeal good. Wonder if Torts would experiment with Duchene on the top line LW with Dubois and Atkinson.

That would be madness. If you're not desperate for a #1C, there's not enough justification to pay the $8m-$9m x 8 each it will take to get those guys. If you get one, you wouldn't be willing to pay enough for the other. Getting both would leave us in a few years with about $16m locked up in 30-something middle six centers.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

That would be madness. If you're not desperate for a #1C, there's not enough justification to pay the $8m-$9m x 8 each it will take to get those guys. If you get one, you wouldn't be willing to pay enough for the other. Getting both would leave us in a few years with about $16m locked up in 30-something middle six centers.

IIRC Hayes can also be a useful winger. I think if we can sign Hayes and Duchene, you do it, but I'm not too optimistic on Duchene/

I would consider signing two or three of Zucc, Hayes, Duchene, Justin Williams, Nyquist, and MAYBE Brassard. That wouldn't be able to replace what Panarin brings, but it would likely keep us on the playoff bubble and able to compete going forward if our young core continues developing.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Duchene’s asking price

Buffalo signed Jeff Skinner to an eight-year, $72 million contract earlier this month, a staggering figure for a player who has never scored more than 63 points in a season.
What does that mean for Blue Jackets center Matt Duchene, a pending unrestricted free agent? He’s had two 70-point seasons, plays a more valuable position (center vs. left wing) and is one of the NHL’s top faceoff players.
And if Skinner is worth $9 million per, isn’t point-a-game player Artemi Panarin worth significantly more? Like maybe $11 million per?
One NHL front-office type told The Athletic this week that he expects Duchene to get paid more than Skinner, perhaps as much as $9.5 million or more per season.
That might be too steep for the Blue Jackets, who also would lose their first-round pick to Ottawa in 2020 if they sign Duchene.
Incidentally, the contract Skinner signed — eight years, $72 million — is the same amount the Blue Jackets have had on the table for both goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and Panarin for more than a year now.

Offer sheets no longer taboo, but Blue Jackets can't take...

?????????????????????????

Wasn't it reported at one time we offered Panarin 10+? If we only offered 9, then I'm furious.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

That would be madness. If you're not desperate for a #1C, there's not enough justification to pay the $8m-$9m x 8 each it will take to get those guys. If you get one, you wouldn't be willing to pay enough for the other. Getting both would leave us in a few years with about $16m locked up in 30-something middle six centers.

I don’t think Hayes will get anywhere near 8. More like 6-6.5M per year. But I get your point.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Offer sheets no longer taboo, but Blue Jackets can't take...

?????????????????????????

Wasn't it reported at one time we offered Panarin 10+? If we only offered 9, then I'm furious.

Pretty sure Tom’s wrong on this one. No way Jarmo only offered Panarin 9M per year.

 

[Toe Pick]

Pretty sure Tom’s wrong on this one. No way Jarmo only offered Panarin 9M per year.

It would just be a starting position which is an incredibly fair starting position.

But it doesn’t matter since it’s unfortunately only a 1-way negotiation.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Savard, Murray, Nutivaara

Miller, Gourde, Palat, Johnson

Anything to be made of these parts?

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Savard, Murray, Nutivaara

Miller, Gourde, Palat, Johnson

Anything to be made of these parts?

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

It would just be a starting position which is an incredibly fair starting position.

But it doesn’t matter since it’s unfortunately only a 1-way negotiation.

Exactly, if both sides were willing to negotiate, Panarin probably starts at 11 and they work their way to the middle at 10. Negotiating is a long forgotten skill in the political world but it's how you deal with sports contracts and car dealers.

 

[majormajor]

I think I've had it with Porty. He was wrong all year and he can't seem to stop.

"Offer sheets no longer taboo, but Blue Jackets can’t take part this summer"

Actually they can take part, that is if they're no longer taboo, which he doesn't really establish. There's no point in offer sheeting anyone other than Point or Marner, and they would both be in the $10.6m+ category that the Jackets can take part in. You wouldn't break the taboo just to sign a cheap player, and you wouldn't offer sheet any of the other players because they would all be matched. There's only two players that might not be matched, the two the Jackets can sign.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I think I've had it with Porty. He was wrong all year and he can't seem to stop.

"Offer sheets no longer taboo, but Blue Jackets can’t take part this summer"

Actually they can take part, that is if they're no longer taboo, which he doesn't really establish. There's no point in offer sheeting anyone other than Point or Marner, and they would both be in the $10.6m+ category that the Jackets can take part in. You wouldn't break the taboo just to sign a cheap player, and you wouldn't offer sheet any of the other players because they would all be matched. There's only two players that might not be matched, the two the Jackets can sign.

Technically they can't take part in it until Duchene signs elsewhere.

But yeah, this whole thing about offer sheets no longer being taboo is BS. Until it happens with regularity like it does in the NBA, its still taboo.

 

[majormajor]

Savard, Murray, Nutivaara

Miller, Gourde, Palat, Johnson

Anything to be made of these parts?

I hope not.

Not that we wouldn't benefit from trading one of our D for a versatile forward like Miller, but I want us to keep our powder dry for a real upgrade. I think the trade value of our second pair D (and second pair D in general) is higher than all of those guys. If we don't have a better option I wouldn't complain about adding Miller, Johnson, or Gourde, all of whom can play center.

 

[majormajor]

IIRC Hayes can also be a useful winger. I think if we can sign Hayes and Duchene, you do it, but I'm not too optimistic on Duchene/

I would consider signing two or three of Zucc, Hayes, Duchene, Justin Williams, Nyquist, and MAYBE Brassard. That wouldn't be able to replace what Panarin brings, but it would likely keep us on the playoff bubble and able to compete going forward if our young core continues developing.

I say okay if two of the three deals are 3 year terms or less. And I wouldn't offer Brassard more than a one year prove it deal.

 

[thebus88]

Savard, Murray, Nutivaara

Miller, Gourde, Palat, Johnson

Anything to be made of these parts?

Eh, no.

Eh, well maybe, Palat-Nutivaara. Anybody??

Both are somewhat "buried" and have more to show, imo. Palat fits the CBJ "style", I believe. And he's supposedly/listed as a LW, so that's a plus for those who think most of our forwards can switch from wing to center but not RW to LW.

 

[majormajor]

Eh, no.

Eh, well maybe, Palat-Nutivaara. Anybody??

Both are somewhat "buried" and have more to show, imo. Palat fits the CBJ "style", I believe. And he's supposedly/listed as a LW, so that's a plus for those who think most of our forwards can switch from wing to center but not RW to LW.

What makes him "buried"? He played much of the year with Stamkos.

 

[thebus88]

What makes him "buried"? He played much of the year with Stamkos.

Well, I did say "buried".

More than a few of their players will play, "much of the year with Stamkos/Kucherov" or Point. I looked at TB's PP time and he WAS pretty high up there among the forwards in PP TOI, but, anyways.

My main point is they have quite a bit of depth on offense and 7-8 guys that outscored him aka can be looked at for scoring.

#4 defenseman for a high level 2nd line winger. Both could use bigger "responsibility" or be looked at as a GO TO guy at their respective positions, imo. I think TB's D was/is overrated. Any more questions?

 

[majormajor]

Well, I did say "buried".

More than a few of their players will play, "much of the year with Stamkos/Kucherov" or Point. I looked at TB's PP time and he WAS pretty high up there among the forwards in PP TOI, but, anyways.

My main point is they have quite a bit of depth on offense and 7-8 guys that outscored him aka can be looked at for scoring.

#4 defenseman for a high level 2nd line winger. Both could use bigger "responsibility" or be looked at as a GO TO guy at their respective positions, imo. I think TB's D was/is overrated. Any more questions?

I wouldn't call Palat a high level 2nd line winger. He's been the most derided player on the Tampa boards, and looking at his stats I can see why. 8 goals despite playing 70% of his ES time with Stamkos and getting 128 PP minutes. A big chunk of his meager output is actually secondary assists - he only had 11 primary points at 5 v 5 this year, and only 13 primary points last year. It looks like his output would be more befitting our bottom six. I hear he's a good defensive player.

He costs $5.3m per and Nuti costs $2.75m per.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I think I've had it with Porty. He was wrong all year and he can't seem to stop.

"Offer sheets no longer taboo, but Blue Jackets can’t take part this summer"

Actually they can take part, that is if they're no longer taboo, which he doesn't really establish. There's no point in offer sheeting anyone other than Point or Marner, and they would both be in the $10.6m+ category that the Jackets can take part in. You wouldn't break the taboo just to sign a cheap player, and you wouldn't offer sheet any of the other players because they would all be matched. There's only two players that might not be matched, the two the Jackets can sign.

The other thing he didn’t factor in is (unless this has changed but I don’t think it has) the pick compensation is based on AAV BUT at a maximum of 5 years, even if it’s a 6- or 7-year contract. $52.9M is the cutoff point for any deal 5 years or higher. So (if we didn’t re-sign Duchene) we could sign any RFA to a 6-year deal with an $8.9M AAV or higher, or a 7-year deal at a $7.6M AAV or higher.

It’s probably irrelevant anyway because we’d prob need to hit at least $11M for either of those guys for it to not be matched, but the point is it’s definitely not impossible. Maybe for someone like Boeser if we wanted to be able to sign him but keep the AAV in the $8.5-9M range.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Does the Berube victory put to rest "the game has passed him by" narrative on Torts? Both like aggressive forechecks and physical play and playing veterans.

 

[thebus88]

I wouldn't call Palat a high level 2nd line winger. He's been the most derided player on the Tampa boards, and looking at his stats I can see why. 8 goals despite playing 70% of his ES time with Stamkos and getting 128 PP minutes. A big chunk of his meager output is actually secondary assists - he only had 11 primary points at 5 v 5 this year, and only 13 primary points last year. It looks like his output would be more befitting our bottom six. I hear he's a good defensive player.

He costs $5.3m per and Nuti costs $2.75m per.

Ok.

I'd still do the trade.