Speculation: 2019 Off Season Roster Discussion #4

[YotesFan47]

I still like that trade. If Raanta stays healthy he's a top tier goalie. Just had some rough luck. Stepan needs to bounce back to another 50pt season, but I'm not too worried about that. He's been extremely consistent over the years, and EVERYBODY had an off year offensively last year.

Except Richardson, he came in and was like "Don't worry boys, I have a strong back!" and tried to carry us. If only he was actually a game changing player, might have made a much larger difference.

 

[LuckyNumber11]

When I tried to see who kept beating Hayton on the face-offs, I got the impression it was Schnarr the one time I thought I could make it out. But it was really hard to see, I might have been wrong.

If memory serves me right, they had Schnarr's line facing Hayton's most of the night. Which makes sense since Schnarr is probably the closest center to Hayton (IMO). So I think that's right, although Hayton did have a higher FO% than Schnarr in the OHL last year so it's just tough to say.

 

[Name Nameless]

Schnarr's stats are pretty normal for a guy his age in junior. Pretty much every 'meh' Roadrunner had similar or better stats. His ticket will be hard nosed, smart bottom 6 play if he makes it. He will start in Tucson.

Well, on the third OHL all-star team according to 2018–19 OHL season - Wikipedia

.. i like it just a little...

 

[BUX7PHX]

adding Duchenne was going to add $7M+. Adding Kessel by subtracting Galchenyuk used about $1M extra dollars.

So that can't be true.

It's simply contingency planning. If Duchene was our number 1 target and there was a great chance for him to sign here, we probably already had a deal for Galchenyuk for a weaker RFA and Goligoski for picks/prospects in the conversation.

The instant Duchene made it aware that we could not fit his price range, plan B was brought about and Galchenyuk was moved for Kessel instead. GMs have multiple conversations about multiple players. One action begets another and opens some doors while closing others.

 

[rt]

Maroon
Career P/82: 37.62
Career G/82: 16.07

Ferland
Career P/82: 32.95
Career G/82: 15.07

Minus Best Season and Minus Worst Season:

Maroon
Adj.Career P/82: 36.78
Adj.Career G/82: 16.62

Ferland
Adj.Career P/82: 33.17
Adj.Career G/82: 16.12

Per 60 minutes played (could only count seasons spent on single team):

Maroon
18/19 P/60: 1.60
18/19 G/60: 0.67
TOI/GP: 14:10
PP/GP: 1:57

16/17 P/60: 1.86
16/17 G/60: 1.19
TOI/GP: 16:44
PP/GP: 1:56

14/15 P/60: 2.01
14/15 G/60: 0.53
TOI/GP: 14:17
PP/GP: 2:11

Ferland
18/19 P/60: 2.40
18/19 G/60: 1.02
TOI/GP: 14:06
PP/GP: 1:57

17/18 P/60: 2.13
17/18 G/60: 1.09
TOI/GP: 15:01
PP/GP: 1:51

16/17 P/60: 1.71
16/17 G/60: 1.02
TOI/GP: 11:34
PP/GP: 0:28

----------

^Maroon is slightly more productive per season on average, even when removing any potential outlier seasons. However, Ferland seems to be more economical with his production, getting better production with fewer minutes and fewer power play minutes. Both players have been criticized for being fed linemates and opportunities greater than they deserve. Maroon is bigger, meaner and more violent. Ferland gets around the ice better. Both guys are pretty darn tough. Just about as tough as you're going to find in today's NHL.

I'd say Ferland is pretty clearly better, but it's really not by a whole lot. He got a four year deal that pays him 3.25m per season. 14 million total over four years. If you can get Maroon on a one or two year deal, where you have some flexibility, I'd say you have a chance of being better off. Especially if he's significantly cheaper per year.

 

[_Del_]

we probably already had a deal for Galchenyuk for a weaker RFA and Goligoski for picks/prospects in the conversation.

So Plan A was replace Galchenyuk with Duchenne and dump Goligoski? That was our big plan for improvement? Can we fire him yet?

 

[rt]

I'm still hoping for Boyle or Maroon on a one year deal. Boyle made 2.5 million last season and Maroon made 1.75 million. I think 2.25-2.75m for either player, so long as it's not longer than one year would be great. Just a one and done. We need depth, leadership and especially size and toughness.

I'd sign on of them if I could and then sign Archibald to a one year, two way deal that pays 750k NHL and 250k AHL.

I'd be happy to call that an off-season.

 

[RemoAZ]

So Friedman dismissed it almost immediately, but he mentions around the 14:00 minute mark in his latest podcast that someone mentioned to him that they saw John Chayka flying to Toronto and that it made Friedman contemplate for a brief moment if he was flying up there to meet with Marner...

He then quickly said that Chayka is from the area, and that he's probably NOT meeting with Marner, but that every GM is probably toying with the idea of offersheeting Mitch.

Again this was pretty much laughed off, but interesting that Friedman mentioned that it made him think. Would be a helluva recruitment tactic for Matthews in the future . Not that we'd have any other players we could afford at that point.

So we offer sheet Marner then negotiate a deal for Matthews instead and Toronto matches. Come on Chayka. Show me how smart you are!

 

[Name Nameless]

So we offer sheet Marner then negotiate a deal for Matthews instead and Toronto matches. Come on Chayka. Show me how smart you are!

Even going 10% over cap, the team wouldn't have more than 8328099 dollars for the first year.

And he would never sign that.

And you would have to offer Washington the 2021 second for Coyotes own 2020 third beforehand, or something. First. Before actually giving Marner the offer-sheet. Well, could probably talk with them in parallell, but still.

And what if the RFAs now would like to sign their QO?

 

[RemoAZ]

Even going 10% over cap, the team wouldn't have more than 8328099 dollars for the first year.

And he would never sign that.

And you would have to offer Washington the 2021 second for Coyotes own 2020 third beforehand, or something. First. Before actually giving Marner the offer-sheet. Well, could probably talk with them in parallell, but still.

And what if the RFAs now would like to sign their QO?

Chayka is smart enough to figure it out. Just ask him.

 

[Mosby]

Talked to some people in the know re: Schnarr. Fair amount of concern with his skating and that it will give him trouble adapting to AHL.

 

[Hogan20]

1yr, 1mil, 1way?

I do really wonder if he'd consider it. He really wasn't good in Ottawa, Pittsburg or Florida. I thought he was a fine defensive guy in Colorado. Maybe playing with Stepan again helps his confidence.

 

[_Del_]

I'm still hoping for Boyle or Maroon on a one year deal. Boyle made 2.5 million last season and Maroon made 1.75 million. I think 2.25-2.75m for either player, so long as it's not longer than one year would be great. Just a one and done. We need depth, leadership and especially size and toughness.

I'd sign on of them if I could and then sign Archibald to a one year, two way deal that pays 750k NHL and 250k AHL.

I'd be happy to call that an off-season.

Might as well try to flip Hossa and something for ZSmith with retention once you get to the 2.5M area. Two birds, one stone. Or cough up a third or whatever for a much better player in Eakin who makes just over $3M and save a penny elsewhere.

They already decided they are all-in basically. Traded cost controlled Strome for Schmaltz who got a big raise for a guy who had 11 points in his first 23 games. Turned Domi and POJ into three years of Kessel. Handed out big deals to Chych, Dvo, and Schmaltz based on hopes and prayers. Why waste another year? I don't understand why we're content to just waste a year of Kessel's (not to mention Hayton's) contract by sitting on our hands hoping for internal growth instead of making Hayton earn a spot. Especially when our record for internal growth is suspect to begin with. This is it. This is what we have. So add something to it.

 

[YotesFan47]

Even going 10% over cap, the team wouldn't have more than 8328099 dollars for the first year.

And he would never sign that.

And you would have to offer Washington the 2021 second for Coyotes own 2020 third beforehand, or something. First. Before actually giving Marner the offer-sheet. Well, could probably talk with them in parallell, but still.

And what if the RFAs now would like to sign their QO?

Don't worry, I got this figured out.

There was a trade on the trade board of roughly Stepan + Goligoski + Fisher for Risto + Mittelstadt. We then move Mittelstadt + Chychrun + 1st + 1st for Marner.

Crouse - Dvorak - Marner
Keller - Schmaltz - Kessel
Soderberg - Hayton - Garland
Grabner - Richardson - Hinostroza

OEL - Hjalmersson
2LD - Demers
Oesterle - Risto

Stepan and Goligoski's cap covers Marner, Ristos money is covered by Chych. Then we just need a plug LD.

Boom, HF problem solving at its finest!

 

[BUX7PHX]

So Plan A was replace Galchenyuk with Duchenne and dump Goligoski? That was our big plan for improvement? Can we fire him yet?

I am just throwing out names with higher salaries. You're asking me to pinpoint the exact deals that we talk about that never actually wind up coming to fruition. For every trade that gets made, there are probably 10-25 different conversations that may involve similar players.

Stop acting like everything is done in a vacuum and that the Kessel deal was going to go down the exact way that it did, regardless of what other moves were made. If we sign Duchene, that probably means we don't get Kessel and we have to dump some salary. That could be Galchenyuk going to a different team and POJ staying. Could have been Goligoski going to a different team. Maybe signing Duchene leaves Dvorak as the player that gets moved for, I don't know, Sam Bennett. That would have saved about $3 M in cap space based on what Bennett just signed for.

I would be more concerned if our GM went into the offseason only wanting to target just one player and seeing where that goes (or having one plan in mind). Duchene was our top target, but clearly not our only target. If we only have a plan A, but don't have a plan B, C, or D - that is when bad decisions can be made. I think we had about 3-8 different plans to go after. Duchene might have been plan A without adding Soderstrom. Plan B may have been Duchene with adding Soderstrom. Plans C, D, and E may have been without adding Duchene and investigating FA, Kessel, and other players.

I don't know what you are expecting me to say other than being open to several possibilities through the GM. Much better than what Maloney did year-in and year-out with free agency, where we pretty much scratched trades off the list and instead focused on the 2nd or 3rd tier of free agents to sign. That was one-track planning at its most obvious. Sometimes it worked okay, like the Whitney signing. Sometimes it didn't, like the Ribeiro signing. I think we had more misses with the 2nd or 3rd tier guys, as opposed to hits, so what is wrong with having contingency plans available?

 

[BUX7PHX]

Might as well try to flip Hossa and something for ZSmith with retention once you get to the 2.5M area. Two birds, one stone. Or cough up a third or whatever for a much better player in Eakin who makes just over $3M and save a penny elsewhere.

They already decided they are all-in basically. Traded cost controlled Strome for Schmaltz who got a big raise for a guy who had 11 points in his first 23 games. Turned Domi and POJ into three years of Kessel. Handed out big deals to Chych, Dvo, and Schmaltz based on hopes and prayers. Why waste another year? I don't understand why we're content to just waste a year of Kessel's (not to mention Hayton's) contract by sitting on our hands hoping for internal growth instead of making Hayton earn a spot. Especially when our record for internal growth is suspect to begin with. This is it. This is what we have. So add something to it.

So, they traded Strome because they didn't want to attach hope to his name, but then turn around and give deals out where hope is the reason??

You're out of touch with reality. Reality is that Strome wasn't putting his best effort forth, otherwise there would be no need to trade him. Dvorak and Chychrun bought in. Strome didn't. Much easier to get rid of the guy who doesn't buy in than to try and work him in. Hell, for all we know, his agent was going to put our balls in a vice grip with an RFA ask that was close to what Turris tried with us. We didn't just wake up one day and say, "It's not going to work out and we refuse to try things to work out." Sometimes, the fit isn't there.

 

[rt]

Strome’s effort and buy in looked great to me. I value Strome more highly than Chayka or Tocchet. I’d happily trade both to get Strome back.

 

[RemoAZ]

Strome was never going to look good playing on the 4th line. He's never going to be a good 4th line defensive/checking center. He'll have to play in Europe or Russia if he can't be a scorer. What they were trying to accomplish with him here is beyond me. They weren't trying to utilize his skills. They weren't trying to showcase him for a trade and they definitely weren't trying to develop him unless they were dumb enough to try and develop him into a 4th line center.

 

[_Del_]

. Hell, for all we know, his agent was going to put our balls in a vice grip with an RFA ask that was close to what Turris tried with us.

LOL

Well thank goodness he had two years left on his ELC before Chayka would have to pay out a $5.8M AAv contract. (That is the going rate between Chayka and a guy who scores 25 pts in a contract year, right?)

Apparently we don't have any money to spend so the answer was to dump all our ELC guys we don't want to develop and overpay all our RFA's and not have enough left over to actually improve the roster?

I like where this is headed! Who should we get to oversee rebuild 3.0 next summer?

 

[Mosby]

Went through Strome’s points the other day. Just over half (53%) of them involved DeBrincat. Not sure if that means anything or that we can draw much from it, but interesting nonetheless. I guess we should just hope for a DeBrincat injury

 

[_Del_]

Why hope for Strome to fail? The same reason we're "glad" Rundblad got healthy scratched 40-something games in a row in a key development year by Tippett? So we can pretend the org isn't the one that sucks at development?

No thanks. I'd rather just fire the clueless assholes who don't know how to develop or recognize how important it is, and bring in people who do. Especially if we're still broke.

 

[RemoAZ]

Went through Strome’s points the other day. Just over half (53%) of them involved DeBrincat. Not sure if that means anything or that we can draw much from it, but interesting nonetheless. I guess we should just hope for a DeBrincat injury

Maybe our GM should have been obsessed with DeBrincat for over a year instead of Schmaltz.

 

[SniperHF]

Went through Strome’s points the other day. Just over half (53%) of them involved DeBrincat. Not sure if that means anything or that we can draw much from it,

I think you'd have to compare it to how much he played with DeBrincat to see if that's worth considering or not.
According to my maths (using Corsica's data) Strome was on a line with Debrincat for 811 minutes out of 1480 total minutes. (using a minimum TOI of 10 minutes per line combo)

54% thereabouts.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I love the "he played with good linemates so his points don't count" argument. It's so silly. Players who are good at offense, often play with other players who are good at offense. That's allowed. Most teams do that. Some players can elevate others to crazy heights of course, like Jumbo Joe and his string of wingers who scored 40 goals. But often it's just that both players are good at scoring.

To be clear, Mosby wasn't saying Strome's points don't count, but others have previously based off of linemates and I always find it absurd.

 

[Foggy1097]

You don’t think playing with literally your best friend in the world from junior hockey who you have crazy chemistry with plays a factor? It definitely does. Strome is ok - he’s not the player for this team and/or system...and I think it’s as clear as it possibly can be after 17 games, that Schmaltz is.