2019 NHL Draft: Russian Prospects - 2018/2019 Season

[MaxV]

If you saw dronov while healthy, how did he look?

Like a guy who was poised for a breakout season.

Still, he won't get drafted. Injuries are a big red flag with him.

 

[Caser]

It's been awhile since I made some updates, so I thought that maybe I'll just post my updated rankings here without comments and if those will be needed, I'll be posting it a bit later as the week goes.

1. W Vasiliy Podkolzin
2. RW Pavel Dorofeyev
3. C Yegor Spiridonov
4. C Ilya Nikolayev
5. LHD Artemiy Knyazev
6. W/C Yegor Afanasyev
7. GK Pyotr Kochetkov
8. LHD Roman Bychkov
9. C/W Matvei Guskov
10. C Mikhail Abramov
11. LHD Ilya Mironov
12. GK Ilya Konovalov
13. C Oleg Zaitsev
14. LW Daniil Gutik
15. W Vladislav Firstov
16. LHD Nikita Okhotyuk
17. C Alexei Tsyplakov
18. RW Kirill Slepets
19. LW Dmitriy Sheshin
20. RW Alexander Gordin
21. LW Ilya Altybarmakyan
22. RW/C Maxim Shabanov
23. LHD Semyon Chistyakov
24. W Nikita Shashkov
25. RW/C Nikita Rozhkov
26. RHD Andrei Pribylskiy
27. LHD Igor Usmanov
28. LHD Daniil Misyul
29. W Stepan Starkov
30. W Yegor Chinakhov

 

[Caser]

It's been awhile since I made some updates, so I thought that maybe I'll just post my updated rankings here without comments and if those will be needed, I'll be posting it a bit later as the week goes.

1. W Vasiliy Podkolzin
2. RW Pavel Dorofeyev
3. C Yegor Spiridonov
4. C Ilya Nikolayev
5. LHD Artemiy Knyazev
6. W/C Yegor Afanasyev
7. GK Pyotr Kochetkov
8. LHD Roman Bychkov
9. C/W Matvei Guskov
10. C Mikhail Abramov
11. LHD Ilya Mironov
12. GK Ilya Konovalov
13. C Oleg Zaitsev
14. LW Daniil Gutik
15. W Vladislav Firstov
16. LHD Nikita Okhotyuk
17. C Alexei Tsyplakov
18. RW Kirill Slepets
19. LW Dmitriy Sheshin
20. RW Alexander Gordin
21. LW Ilya Altybarmakyan
22. RW/C Maxim Shabanov
23. LHD Semyon Chistyakov
24. W Nikita Shashkov
25. RW/C Nikita Rozhkov
26. RHD Andrei Pribylskiy
27. LHD Igor Usmanov
28. LHD Daniil Misyul
29. W Stepan Starkov
30. W Yegor Chinakhov

So I finally found time to sit down and write some coments here just to find out that there's not much to write about. I mean, it doesn't look like there would be anything out of the box in my rankings, so I guess I can comment it only in general.

So, in the Top 5 there are no big surprises. Podkolzin is a unit, so enough said here. Dorofeyev is a type of player, who just drives his line - you need those ot generate the offense. And if Dorofeyev is the driver, then Spiridonov is the engine of the line (btw, am I the only one, who thinks of Kamenev as a valid comparison here?). Imo, those 3 can be considered as realistic first-round candidates at this point. Then there's Nikolayev, who is a fighter, who always gives 115% of what he has got and also Knyazev with his puckmoving skills.

Maybe 6-10 range is a bit different, but not so much. Afanasyev got too much of the deadly skating*size*shot combination to be ignored. Kochetkov with his size, mobility and WJC performance also deserves to be ranked that high if he can keep his groin healthy. Bychkov is definitely one of my favourite guys out there: he is very smart and, as his confidence is growing, he is starting to show some great skating and puckmoving. Guskov is falling down in my rankings a bit, as I'm kind of dissapointed he almost doesn't play C, yet I must admit he isn't that bad at wing. And to finish the Top 10 there's Abramov, as he is such a naturally great playmaker, particularly I like that his passes are made with perfect timing.

11-20 range mostly contains guys, who are for different reasons trending down (or at least not trending up), but their talents allow them to still be in consideration. Exceptions here are Konovalov, who is doing something crazy in the KHL and two hard-working MHL-ers: two-way center Alexei Tsyplakov and a smallish left wing sniper Dmitriy Sheshin. As for 21-30 range, it's mostly containing guys I've taken note of (in a positive way), but still haven't exactly made up my mind.

 

[Cskavars]

no yaroslav likhachyov ?

 

[jvr32]

Yegor Serdyuk? 51 pts in 50 games and better production than Abramov has in the same team in the Q. Did not make the top 30? Chistyakov should be higher too.

 

[Bandit Keith]

Thoughts on Maxim Denezhkin? I actually like him the most of the draft eligible forwards for Yaroslavl but maybe that's just me.

 

[Caser]

no yaroslav likhachyov ?

Not with the season he is having.

Yegor Serdyuk? 51 pts in 50 games and better production than Abramov has in the same team in the Q. Did not make the top 30? Chistyakov should be higher too.

Yeah, Serdyuk was one of the last omissions. The issue is that I didn't catch him on his recent hot streak yet, but before that he didn't impress me that much. Not to mention that at the WJAC he was basically invisible. On Chistyakov, I'm actually have concerns about his size: he likes to play physical game, but with him being 5'10", what is the chance that he will translate that to pro level?

Thoughts on Maxim Denezhkin? I actually like him the most of the draft eligible forwards for Yaroslavl but maybe that's just me.

A bit of a complicated case for me, because you're not the only one, who likes him, I've heard that couple of times from other people, but I can't exactly get myself on that wave. I mean, he is a good playmaking center, works hard and is decent overall, but I'd like to see some "superpower", not just "decent"... still maybe I just need to look a bit closer.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What is the reason you have Gutik lower than a lot of people?

What is the reason for the lack of Dronov?

 

[Caser]

What is the reason you have Gutik lower than a lot of people?

What is the reason for the lack of Dronov?

I'm not a big fan ov overall Gutik's intensity, somehow in the games I've seen he seems a bit too relaxed to me, which is quite worrying. As for Dronov, iirc, when I posted this list he was still injured. He is back now and played couple of games, but let's see how he finishes the season before making conclusions.

 

[Frk It]

What about Arseni Gritsyuk?

He has a badass name, decent numbers in the MHL, and I’ve seen some nice highlights of him from different tournaments.

 

[Bandit Keith]

A bit of a complicated case for me, because you're not the only one, who likes him, I've heard that couple of times from other people, but I can't exactly get myself on that wave. I mean, he is a good playmaking center, works hard and is decent overall, but I'd like to see some "superpower", not just "decent"... still maybe I just need to look a bit closer.

Personally I just find the Yaroslavl guys overrated - even Mironov who I quite like is starting to worry me with the lack of point production. I'll watch a few more games to get a better read on Bychkov and Nikolayev though.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

With NJ having a good shot of a top 5 pick, am I right to be worried about Podkolzin's offensive upside? Hasn't really produced in the VHL and only has 8 points in 12 MHL games.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

With NJ having a good shot of a top 5 pick, am I right to be worried about Podkolzin's offensive upside? Hasn't really produced in the VHL and only has 8 points in 12 MHL games.

I think he has good scoring talent, but I can't remember many forwards picked in the top 5 playing in junior and low-level professional leagues with numbers like he has. I don't think his offensive upside should be questioned, but I think his current offensive ability should be.

 

[tigervixxxen]

No it should not be a worry, his offense is just fine. Those Russian leagues are such as small sample size and he gets low playing time even in the VHL. The spreadsheet scouts should not be allowed to spread this narrative without any understanding of the numbers they are looking at and without having watched any of these leagues.

I mean cool, I hope everyone passes on Podkolzin for ridiculous reasons and then the Avs grab him with their own pick. That's just fine by me.

 

[Kipper933]

It's been awhile since I made some updates, so I thought that maybe I'll just post my updated rankings here without comments and if those will be needed, I'll be posting it a bit later as the week goes.

1. W Vasiliy Podkolzin
2. RW Pavel Dorofeyev
3. C Yegor Spiridonov
4. C Ilya Nikolayev
5. LHD Artemiy Knyazev
6. W/C Yegor Afanasyev
7. GK Pyotr Kochetkov
8. LHD Roman Bychkov
9. C/W Matvei Guskov
10. C Mikhail Abramov
11. LHD Ilya Mironov
12. GK Ilya Konovalov
13. C Oleg Zaitsev
14. LW Daniil Gutik
15. W Vladislav Firstov
16. LHD Nikita Okhotyuk
17. C Alexei Tsyplakov
18. RW Kirill Slepets
19. LW Dmitriy Sheshin
20. RW Alexander Gordin
21. LW Ilya Altybarmakyan
22. RW/C Maxim Shabanov
23. LHD Semyon Chistyakov
24. W Nikita Shashkov
25. RW/C Nikita Rozhkov
26. RHD Andrei Pribylskiy
27. LHD Igor Usmanov
28. LHD Daniil Misyul
29. W Stepan Starkov
30. W Yegor Chinakhov

Solid list, that top 6 is probably the consensus order at this moment.

Obviously you're really familiar with Loko Yaroslavl, so a bit surprised by the Alexander Daryin omission (and to a lesser extent, Denezhkin). Daryin can just play so fast, it's like his linemates can't keep up with him or think the game at his level. His puck control in tight spaces is also pretty impressive.

I can see why you would have Gutik that low because he doesn't seem engaged enough, but his vision and playmaking is at a very high level, he's got to play to his strengths more often. Half the time his shots are so poorly-timed or muffins, he needs to get more confident to hold on to the puck longer and find the pass. At the same time, I don't think there's any Russian NHL Fs with MHL numbers as low as Gutik's in their draft year.

I also like Ivan Rogov, very solid and reliable defenseman who is showing decent offensive talent this year too.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No it should not be a worry, his offense is just fine. Those Russian leagues are such as small sample size and he gets low playing time even in the VHL. The spreadsheet scouts should not be allowed to spread this narrative without any understanding of the numbers they are looking at and without having watched any of these leagues.

This is a terrific argument.

"Unless you agree with my viewpoint, you don't have the right to have an opinion."

 

[jvr32]

This is a terrific argument.

"Unless you agree with my viewpoint, you don't have the right to have an opinion."

Lol, you're mad only about this since you don't agree with it.

You know this, but Podkolzin has played more international games and tournaments than he has played league games in the KHL, VHL and MHL combined. He is at least PPG or over in every international tournament except for the WJC, where he was a double underager and he still was impressive there. U17's, U18's, Hlinka, WJAC. Impressed everywhere. Podkolzin absolutely belongs in there top 5 unlike you seem to believe. There's no debate imo and his league production doesn't worry at all. He's no McDavid or MacKinnon obviously, but are you really get that worried about player's small sample size league production over so many international tournaments? If that then teams are going to make the Filip Forsberg mistake all over again and one team is going to get a huge steal.

 

[tigervixxxen]

This is a terrific argument.

"Unless you agree with my viewpoint, you don't have the right to have an opinion."

I have explained it in great detail plenty of times including in his thread breaking down his season and his production in each league. How about the burden of proof should lie with those who find some issue in a sample of 12 whole games, the bulk of which occurred early in the season? Or explaining how 6 goals in 12 games somehow indicates a problem with offense. Every year there's a "chosen one" that gets tagged with "production problem" and it doesn't matter how twisted the narrative gets.

Like I said, it only benefits my team if he drops so keep it going.

 

[ijuka]

With NJ having a good shot of a top 5 pick, am I right to be worried about Podkolzin's offensive upside? Hasn't really produced in the VHL and only has 8 points in 12 MHL games.

You are. MHL is a far weaker junior league than CHL so that's where he is at. Such production in CHL wouldn't even make him a first round pick, and I keep hearing people talk about him succeeding because of his "competitiveness" or something ridiculous like that. IMO Podkolzin is by far the most overrated player of this draft, I just don't see it. A u18 player doing well at u18s isn't that special. Yes, I've only seen his international matches, but such a failure to produce even at VHL(WEAK) and MHL(AWFUL) is very noteworthy no matter what else he does.

How many players get drafted out of MHL and go on to have a successful career? Nikita Gusev had 50% better production in MHL as a draft eligible player and was a 7th round pick.

No it should not be a worry, his offense is just fine. Those Russian leagues are such as small sample size and he gets low playing time even in the VHL.

See this is just ridiculous. "oh the Russian leagues don't matter, small sample size. Oh international competitions matter even though it's a smaller sample size."

Something needs to be seriously wrong with the player to produce so poorly at MHL, it's a piss poor league. VHL also is weaker than other European leagues such as Liiga, SHL, NLA, Czech league etc.

 

[jvr32]

You are. MHL is a far weaker junior league than CHL so that's where he is at. Such production in CHL wouldn't even make him a first round pick, and I keep hearing people talk about him succeeding because of his "competitiveness" or something ridiculous like that. IMO Podkolzin is by far the most overrated player of this draft, I just don't see it. A u18 player doing well at u18s isn't that special. Yes, I've only seen his international matches, but such a failure to produce even at VHL(WEAK) and MHL(AWFUL) is very noteworthy no matter what else he does.

How many players get drafted out of MHL and go on to have a successful career? Nikita Gusev had 50% better production in MHL as a draft eligible player and was a 7th round pick.

See this is just ridiculous. "oh the Russian leagues don't matter, small sample size. Oh international competitions matter even though it's a smaller sample size."

Something needs to be seriously wrong with the player to produce so poorly at MHL, it's a piss poor league. VHL also is weaker than other European leagues such as Liiga, SHL, NLA, Czech league etc.

It's statistically proven that it is harder to produce at the MHL than the CHL, not much but slightly. So you're talking out of your ass here like you always are.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Podkolzin doesn't have top 5 pick production, but there is plenty of context that suppressed his MHL stats. Those 12 games he played were against much stronger competition than he would have faced over a full season. Out of 17 teams in the MHL West, those opponents are current ranked 2nd (1 game), 3rd (2 games), 4th (2 games), 6th (2 games), 7th (2 games), 10th (2 games), and 12th (1 game). The two games he played against the 10th best team were on his team's much weaker third line, and he was 9th among forwards on his team in ice time in the game against the 12th best team. He didn't really get the chance to beat up on any bottom half teams if you compare him to other players who spent a whole season in the MHL.

It's hard to get a read on his league production at all with how he kept getting promoted to a tougher league as soon as he even remotely settled into the MHL and later the VHL for a few games.

 

[Caser]

What about Arseni Gritsyuk?

He has a badass name, decent numbers in the MHL, and I’ve seen some nice highlights of him from different tournaments.

Looked a bit too inconsistent for me so far... even at the recent 5Nations he sometimes was interesting, but the overall impression for me was that I hoped that Sheshin would replace him on Spiridonov's wing. And that was very in contrast to Chinakhov, who was able to finally take his game basically to the level where it should be on that line.

Personally I just find the Yaroslavl guys overrated - even Mironov who I quite like is starting to worry me with the lack of point production. I'll watch a few more games to get a better read on Bychkov and Nikolayev though.

Mironov is quite worrying, yes, he needs to put those tools into a toolbox fast. Only have positive impressions about Bychkov though, as he is getting better and better. About Nikolayev, I wasn't quite a fan of him in the early phase of the season, but he got his game going already around November.

With NJ having a good shot of a top 5 pick, am I right to be worried about Podkolzin's offensive upside? Hasn't really produced in the VHL and only has 8 points in 12 MHL games.

It depends what are your expectations, I mean, he probably won't deliver Kucherov's production.

Solid list, that top 6 is probably the consensus order at this moment.

Obviously you're really familiar with Loko Yaroslavl, so a bit surprised by the Alexander Daryin omission (and to a lesser extent, Denezhkin). Daryin can just play so fast, it's like his linemates can't keep up with him or think the game at his level. His puck control in tight spaces is also pretty impressive.

I can see why you would have Gutik that low because he doesn't seem engaged enough, but his vision and playmaking is at a very high level, he's got to play to his strengths more often. Half the time his shots are so poorly-timed or muffins, he needs to get more confident to hold on to the puck longer and find the pass. At the same time, I don't think there's any Russian NHL Fs with MHL numbers as low as Gutik's in their draft year.

I also like Ivan Rogov, very solid and reliable defenseman who is showing decent offensive talent this year too.

Daryin is an overager, that's why he really should impress much more than he does... I mean, look at Rozhkov. Btw, speaking about Loko, one of the players I do like there is Beryozkin, but he is available for the draft only next year.

Totally agree about Gutik and "got to play to his strengths more often" (although I probably would say it in a less diplomatic way).

As for Rogov I currently can't tell, to be honest, it's a real pain in the back to scout defensemen in the MHL and it's not like he stood out too much in U18 NT games.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Lol, you're mad only about this since you don't agree with it.

Here is the post right below my initial response.

The spreadsheet scouts should not be allowed to spread this narrative without any understanding of the numbers they are looking at and without having watched any of these leagues.

I wouldn't consider myself a spreadsheet scout who hasn't watched the MHL, and doesn't have an understanding of the league.

Whether he was responding directly to me or my opinion, its a mischaracterization, at best. Not everyone who criticizes Podkolzin's stats are spreadsheet scouts. Some of us have a different opinion than him. Is that not allowed? Thats what he's trying to say. He's trying to say our opinions are invalid.

You know this, but Podkolzin has played more international games and tournaments than he has played league games in the KHL, VHL and MHL combined. He is at least PPG or over in every international tournament except for the WJC, where he was a double underager and he still was impressive there. U17's, U18's, Hlinka, WJAC. Impressed everywhere. Podkolzin absolutely belongs in there top 5 unlike you seem to believe. There's no debate imo and his league production doesn't worry at all. He's no McDavid or MacKinnon obviously, but are you really get that worried about player's small sample size league production over so many international tournaments? If that then teams are going to make the Filip Forsberg mistake all over again and one team is going to get a huge steal.

Thats your own personal opinion. I think differently. I think he has been very good for Russia. I have him ranked high in my rankings, but not in the top 5. You say he's no McDavid or MacKinnon, so why the outrage that someone might have him lower than you do?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I have explained it in great detail plenty of times including in his thread breaking down his season and his production in each league. How about the burden of proof should lie with those who find some issue in a sample of 12 whole games, the bulk of which occurred early in the season? Or explaining how 6 goals in 12 games somehow indicates a problem with offense. Every year there's a "chosen one" that gets tagged with "production problem" and it doesn't matter how twisted the narrative gets.

Like I said, it only benefits my team if he drops so keep it going.

I've also explained his stats in further detail in this thread, as well. The burden of proof is not on me, nor is there any burden of proof here for anyone. This is an internet forum where fans share opinions. They don't have to be informed either.

I think @ijuka made an important point. The MHL is not a great league. A guy who is being ranked consensus top 5 should not have any trouble scoring in the MHL. This has not been a problem for many players in the past.

And on the sample issue, he has 23 games between the MHL and VHL, and he has played between 14:00-14:30 per game in total between those two leagues. He has 11 points. He's not even averaging half a point per game in a significant enough sample. I'm not saying 23 games is a full season or a player playing in the 14's plays a lot, but its enough of a sample and enough ice time where a guy projected top 5 should be producing better. I don't have any problem with 6 goals in 12 games. But unless he's a Wahlstrom type of sniper and you think we should be ranking him in the late first round or early second round, I'm not sure thats what he should be hanging his hat on.

 

[Frk It]

I've also explained his stats in further detail in this thread, as well. The burden of proof is not on me, nor is there any burden of proof here for anyone. This is an internet forum where fans share opinions. They don't have to be informed either.

I think @ijuka made an important point. The MHL is not a great league. A guy who is being ranked consensus top 5 should not have any trouble scoring in the MHL. This has not been a problem for many players in the past.

And on the sample issue, he has 23 games between the MHL and VHL, and he has played between 14:00-14:30 per game in total between those two leagues. He has 11 points. He's not even averaging half a point per game in a significant enough sample. I'm not saying 23 games is a full season or a player playing in the 14's plays a lot, but its enough of a sample and enough ice time where a guy projected top 5 should be producing better. I don't have any problem with 6 goals in 12 games. But unless he's a Wahlstrom type of sniper and you think we should be ranking him in the late first round or early second round, I'm not sure thats what he should be hanging his hat on.

I have similar concerns for sure.

Pronman recently addressed this and add context in the podcast in the 2nd link here: