Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

[DFAC]

If i had to venture a guess, it'd be about the Canucks general inclination to swing for the fences with their 1st pick on particular standout abilities.

Virtanen: elite skater, shooter, hitter.
Boeser: elite shooter, scorer.
Juolevi: elite outlet passer, puck mover.
Pettersson: elite dangler, hockey sense.
Hughes: elite puck mover and PP quarterback.


They've pretty consistently spent their top picks on guys who have identifiable elite traits at the expense of other weaknesses. I'm not sure Broberg really fits that. He's more of a well rounded guy with some weaknesses, who is also tall and a good skater. It doesn't really fit the trend.

It's the same thing that makes me wonder if they're really serious on Krebs.

Fair enough, although you could probably argue Broberg is an elite skate with elite size at the expense of a weakness with hockey IQ.

 

[biturbo19]

+1 for Afanasyev

In the 2nd, i could get on board. He just reminds me so much of the big Kostitsyn though. There's oodles of boom/bust dust to a pick like that, if he's even there.

Not too many surprises in here if you've followed Button's commentary along. He's been unusually low on Turcotte the entire time, and has constantly maintained Caufield is a top-5 talent in the draft. He's also consistently been much lower on Cozens and Dach. He moved Broberg into his top 10 following the u18s.

Button was on 1040 yesterday and said in over 30 viewings of the NTDP, he never once saw Turcotte be a better player than Zegras, Boldy, and Caufield. Felt strange. Maybe it's a play style issue.

It's interesting, because i've said it before...but Turcotte really projects as a Paul Stastny type player for me. That guy who just constantly piles up decent points and is a really good 2-way center who helps make linemates better. If you can get that through their prime with a Top-10 pick, you jump on it i think. But Zegras has some really special dynamic qualities. A lot more risk, but he has an ability to absolutely control the play that i agree with Button...i haven't seen Turcotte demonstrate.

And i can see how Boldy jumps into the conversation. He's what you want in a winger. He's about as well-rounded a package as you could ask for, other than the skating being a notch below where you'd want it. He can do it all, and i think it's indicative of some really good hockey sense to go with his physical tools.

Caufield over Turcotte though, i have a hard time with. Obviously he's an elite amateur goal-scorer, but Caufield's skillset is so narrow, and boxed in on every side by mediocre skating and tiny stature. I don't get that part of it at all.

 

[biturbo19]

Fair enough, although you could probably argue Broberg is an elite skate with elite size at the expense of a weakness with hockey IQ.

I've seen plenty of people suggesting Broberg's skating is "elite", but i'd hold back a bit. He has some elite elements to his skating for sure. Especially for his size. But the whole package, i'm not sure it's "elite". Biggest thing for me, is when he comes up against quick/shifty guys and makes a mistake and has to go into recovery mode, and it feels like his skating falls apart more than it should. Might be something he grows into, but right now, i'd say a guy like Cam York has "elite skating" in terms of easy 4-way mobility. Not Broberg, who is better in a straight line, or moving in predictable ways.

 

[biturbo19]

Kokkonen, Bjornfot, Vlasic and Thomson would be other good targets at 40 if they want to go D. Plenty of good forwards there too with guys like Fagemo (my favorite), Tracey, Afanasyev and Legare. Beecher also seems to get a lot of love too but he wouldn't be my first choice.

If we left this draft with some sort of combination of Newhook/Krebs + Bjornfot/Thomson that would be a great haul imo

Ehhh...I'd ditch Kokkonen from that group. I just don't see the appeal there. He's got some puck skills, but he's not that dynamic and defensively he seems a long ways from reliable. For me, he's more of a "hope he falls to the 3rd" candidate like Vukojevic, Jordan Spence.

Substitute Ryan Johnson, though he also probably goes earlier. Honestly, the more i look at things...the more scared i am that there's going to be a run on all the defencemen i like at 40, from the late 1st-early 2nd, because there does seem to be a noticeable drop-off after.

 

[Canucks LB]

Very interesting.

Do you have any guess as to why Broberg wasnt brought in? Do they not like him or do they not expect him to be there when they pick? For all we’re hearing about the Canucks prioritizing speed and skating, this is a bit surprising

Has nothing to do with any of that, he is currently in Sweden, two trips to Vancouver in 2 weeks is tough.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I just heard broberg is not coming to Vancouver for extended interview next week.

Just a little titbit for you guys.

Excellent.

Are you an insider now LB? Have to clear it with the MODs...

Personally i’d want

Zegras
Boldy
Newhook

Zegras is my favorite potentially realistic pick in the draft, but part of me thinks Boldy will be the better player. He was listed at 6’0 just over a year ago and is pushing 6’2 today so he’s had to adjust to a considerable growth spurt this season and has still shown significant improvement in his skating. Given his high-end hands, shot, and hockey IQ, if his feet/legs can catch up the rest of the way he will be an absolute force at this level and a fantastic complement to EP’s game.

First: Welcome back CanaFan.

Second: Outside of the top2, Zegras and Newhook stand apart in their combination of skill + speed + IQ. Boldy has the shot instead of the speed, that's his trade off, but the first two would be the players I would target at 10. Strangely enough, the team agrees... These two have been the only two mentioned to have been interviewed. Caveat: Dhaliwal mentioned that Broberg would be interviewed, but LB has just added that he was not in fact interviewed. Maybe they're confident that at least Newhook will be available at 10?

Third: If the team picks one of Zegras or Newhook, that will be 3 drafts in a row where the Canucks will have picked a player I like. Strange times.

Easy. Non interest in him

Not according to Dhaliwal?

Why are you being coy lawrence?

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Personally i’d want

Zegras
Boldy
Newhook

Zegras is my favorite potentially realistic pick in the draft, but part of me thinks Boldy will be the better player. He was listed at 6’0 just over a year ago and is pushing 6’2 today so he’s had to adjust to a considerable growth spurt this season and has still shown significant improvement in his skating. Given his high-end hands, shot, and hockey IQ, if his feet/legs can catch up the rest of the way he will be an absolute force at this level and a fantastic complement to EP’s game.

I’d take Boldy given the choice of those three although it’s almost too close to call and I’d be pretty happy with any of them on draft day.
All three are top line talents IMO and Zegras and Newhook would be dynamite during 3 on 3 OT but Boldy is just so well rounded and has that size and ability to excel in the dirty areas where so many goals are scored these days.Boldy is also known for his defensive game and would also work well on a line with Bo to counter other teams top lines and play late in games.
I think it’s a personal preference to pick more versatile players vs faster and flashier guys like Newhook and Zegras,kinda like how I preferred Dobson over Hughes last year but still like Hughes despite his limitations.

 

[CanaFan]

To an extent, maybe it's a floor/ceiling thing, but i don't really believe in that black and white approach. I don't care if a guy has a "4th line grinder floor" with a Top-10 pick, compared to a "total bust". But i think you have to look at players within a realistic spread of potential outcomes. A guy like Cozens still has a serious impact player upside at the top-end of that "limited" ceiling, and probably a bit more focused beam aimed at a Top-6 NHL Forward trajectory. Like, Cozens flaws (vision, creativity, playstyle) just reads like a Ryan Kesler resume. That was huge upside, even if it was often a bit frustrating that there wasn't just a a little bit more vision there.

Dach...like i commented on earlier, i'm not sure his upside is as sky high as some people project, to overshoot Cozens upside. If he was like Draisaitl, i wouldn't give a hoot about the "downside". But i don't see that from Dach in Jrs. The production doesn't back it up. The eye test certainly doesn't back it up for me. The total lack of intensity and pace with Dach are just scratching the surface of issues. It's my questions about the actual vision and awareness of the whole developing play that i'm not sold on. That's not easy to fix.

Contrast: Zegras who i think also has some notable engagement and intensity problems...but i'd easily take him over Dach because of that "upside". I think those issues with Zegras are more easily correctable, because he constantly demonstrates absolutely elite visions and awareness of the ice. Zegras is basically what i think a lot of people want Dach to be...just in a much more compact package.

Well put and tbh I don’t really disagree with any of this. Personally I’m not sure Cozens quite has potential to become a Kesler, as I don’t think he has the nasty, do-absolutely-anything it takes to win persona. He seems to give an honest effort on both and I believe he’ll be an NHLer even if his scoring doesn’t translate, but I while I think his flaws read like Kesler I don’t think he has enough of the other attributes to give you a Kesler-like package in the end.

Dach definitely has that “mystery box” upside and perhaps that gives him a boost that he doesn’t really deserve, but at the same time that’s a big part of what the draft is about; namely projecting players trajectory in 3-5 years. I think with Dach, it appears that there is nothing *functionally* stopping him from achieving a high ceiling - size, hands, skating mechanics, vision, creativity, shot are all high/very high level - whereas with Cozens I think people view him with more permanent limitations. I can’t say it will definitely play out that way but that’s how I read it.

Your take on Zegras sounds about right to me, which is why I put him at the top of my list. I do expect Dach to go before him though because you should never underestimate NHL GM’s fixation on 6’4 Centres.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Excellent.

Are you an insider now LB? Have to clear it with the MODs...

We’ve always had a different policy for vetting official insiders (what rule 8 is designed for), vs those who just pass along some juicy info they hear. At this point, LB would be classified under the latter, which is covered under the bolded part of Rule 8, where we allow veteran members with established credibility some latitude.

8) Claims of Insider Information/ Rumors & Hearsay: If you're an insider, contact us with proof BEFORE you post. These posts will be allowed/rejected at the discretion of administrators after consulting with other posters, moderators, and relevant sources. Deference will be given to veteran members who have established credibility.

(This is more for other users to review, rather than you, ROE - just seemed like an opportune time to point it out)

Also, I echo your sentiments on welcoming back Cana Fan. Also nice to see biturbo19 posting again as well.

 

[Canucks LB]

We’ve always had a different policy for vetting official insiders (what rule 8 is designed for), vs those who just pass along some juicy info they hear. At this point, LB would be classified under the latter, which is covered under the bolded part of Rule 8, where we allow veteran members with established credibility some latitude.

(This is more for other users to review, rather than you, ROE - just seemed like an opportune time to point it out)

Also, I echo your sentiments on welcoming back Cana Fan. Also nice to see biturbo19 posting again as well.

Just sent you a quick DM, thanks buddy.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Zegras would be my pick but I think he’ll be gone, so it’s either Boldy or Newhook after them. As long as we don’t go off the board or pick a dman I’ll be happy.

 

[CanaFan]

All the chatter about Broberg to Edmonton is encouraging. Sat Shah on 650 speculates the Canucks reported interest in Broberg is more Benning's interest than necessarily the rest of the scouting group. Could Edmonton do us a solid and save us from ourselves?

Edit: Imac on 650 right now, downplaying the Canucks interest in taking a D, saying it would be nice if the BPA was a D but that there's so many good Forwards that they will likely have to choose from. Stated he thinks the Canucks will end up picking a Forward. Given he seems to be the Canucks chosen media mouthpiece, I think his speculation is probably a bit more informed than what we normally hear from the media "insiders" in this market.

 

[TruGr1t]

All the chatter about Broberg to Edmonton is encouraging. Sat Shah on 650 speculates the Canucks reported interest in Broberg is more Benning's interest than necessarily the rest of the scouting group. Could Edmonton do us a solid and save us from ourselves?

Edit: Imac on 650 right now, downplaying the Canucks interest in taking a D, saying it would be nice if the BPA was a D but that there's so many good Forwards that they will likely have to choose from. Stated he thinks the Canucks will end up picking a Forward. Given he seems to be the Canucks chosen media mouthpiece, I think his speculation is probably a bit more informed than what we normally hear from the media "insiders" in this market.

So Benning is trying to draft for need again, and the rest of the scouting department is over-ruling him. Noted.

 

[Bankerguy]

I think Turcotte would be such an awesome pick.
Not only does he have top end talent, he has a lower "bust" factor compared to Boldy, Zegras, Caulfield etc.
I highly doubt he falls to us though

 

[DonnyNucker]

So Benning is trying to draft for need again, and the rest of the scouting department is over-ruling him. Noted.

Well it’s Sat Sha speculating. But it supports a delicious narrative so whatever

 

[THE Green Man]

How would we rank?:
Zegras
Newhook
Boldy

Personally i’d want

Zegras
Boldy
Newhook

Zegras is my favorite potentially realistic pick in the draft, but part of me thinks Boldy will be the better player. He was listed at 6’0 just over a year ago and is pushing 6’2 today so he’s had to adjust to a considerable growth spurt this season and has still shown significant improvement in his skating. Given his high-end hands, shot, and hockey IQ, if his feet/legs can catch up the rest of the way he will be an absolute force at this level and a fantastic complement to EP’s game.

For me it would be Boldy, Zegras, Newhook. Boldy would be the perfect compliment to Elias and Brock as a skilled retrieval guy or with Bo as the Mark Stone kind of player on a skilled defensive 2nd line.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Sat shah is trash

 

[CanaFan]

Well it’s Sat Sha speculating. But it supports a delicious narrative so whatever

Aren't you choosing to trash it because it doesn't support your counter-narrative?

 

[DonnyNucker]

Aren't you choosing to trash it because it doesn't support your counter-narrative?

Nope. I like narratives

 

[CanaFan]

Nope. I like narratives

Noted.

 

[4Twenty]

Yeah. I have some real reservations with Dach. There are things to like there, but there's a lot to worry about too. Whether he ends up "falling" or going roughly where people expect, is really just going to come down to whether one of those top drafting teams sees him as a potential Getzlaf and worth the risks or not.

He draws comparisons to guys like Spezza and Draisaitl, but i really haven't seen him consistently dominate the play like those guys did in Jrs. The floating in no-man's-land and standing around puck-watching doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he's really in control of the play like those guys either. Or that he sees the ice incredibly well as whole. For me, that's one of the biggest things that separates bigger guys with lackluster footspeed between the Spezza and Draisaitls who are able to bring the play to their own speed and use their smarts+anticipation to get to where they need to go...and the less effective big slow guys who in today's NHL, tend to lag behind the play a lot.

Easy to see a big RH Center with nice point totals and think it's an easy slamdunk, and it could well be. But ehhh...there's plenty to be wary of with Dach imo.

Odds seem good it's somebody else's risk to make, before the Canucks pick anyway. But with this draft, i'm not confident of where anyone is going to go past 2.

Interesting you mention Draisatl, because I remember knocking him for the lack of pace, something Dach can also be accused of. I think one mistake when comparing Dach this year vs Draisatl is that this is Dach's 17 year old season and Draisatl was drafted in his 18 year old season. Not a massive issue, but when Draisatl was 17 he was below PPG.

The skill set is tantalizing with Dach though. He's exceptional from the top of the circles down, akin to a non-agitator Matthew Tkachuk, and you just imagine him with 10-20 lbs and some man strength at 25 and it's really hard to knock him down.

I can't say I see the standing around like you're mentioning here either or the lack of vision. He's very much like Getzlaf with his vision and ability to allow the play to run through him. I would sprint to the stage if Dach is there at 10th.

 

[TruGr1t]

I'll actually note, the more I read about Broberg the more I think he may not actually be available at 10. Was just reading Pronman's prospect review at The Athletic, and he's a Broberg guy as well.

One interesting note is that apparently Broberg's play and production (and PP usage) was impacted by an illness around the world juniors:

AIK manager Anders Gozzi attributes this midseason dip to illness saying, “Some of the matches in the autumn, (Broberg) was the best defender on the ice. When he came home after the world juniors, he was sick and in poor shape. Therefore, it was difficult to get him to the same level he showed up in the autumn and he had to play with AIK’s juniors to find his game again. Slowly but surely he has come back to his game, so it was fun to see him finish the season as he started it.”

I will not be too miffed if we take him at 10. The upside is enormous. A lot of scouts also think he could make the jump to the NHL within 2 years.

 

[kcunac]

this thread needs more Seider and Krebs and less Broberg. Broberg reminds me of Virtanen. Has the tools - size, speed, shot - but doesn’t seem like he can do the basic things well, like an outlet pass. Numbers were similar to Soderstrom who was in a better league and is from my viewings a better defender in almost every respect, save some rushes during the U20s. if people are basing so much off of the U20s, then why not more attention to Seider? The guy can already play pro league defense, has great IQ, makes simple high percentage plays, and knows when to join the rush. Already looks like an NHL defender and there is little question he be top 4 if not top pair defense, with a possible limitation being PP1. Finally, Krebs is fast, high IQ, great leadership, hard working, and very good in all skills categories. Can’t believe he isn’t talked about more with the Nucks and makes me think they are purposely drawing attention away from him. I feel like guys with question marks, such as Broberg, Cozens (IQ), Dach (effort), Poldz (iq/skills + Russian factor), Caufield (skating) are assumed to have higher upside than guys like Seider and Krebs, and I’m not sure this is justified. If I’m drafting a guy with clear deficiencies for upside he better have the numbers to back it up (Caulfield does, the others don’t).

 

[TruGr1t]

this thread needs more Seider and Krebs and less Broberg. Broberg reminds me of Virtanen. Has the tools - size, speed, shot - but doesn’t seem like he can do the basic things well, like an outlet pass. Numbers were similar to Soderstrom who was in a better league and is from my viewings a better defender in almost every respect, save some rushes during the U20s. if people are basing so much off of the U20s, then why not more attention to Seider? The guy can already play pro league defense, has great IQ, makes simple high percentage plays, and knows when to join the rush. Already looks like an NHL defender and there is little question he be top 4 if not top pair defense, with a possible limitation being PP1. Finally, Krebs is fast, high IQ, great leadership, hard working, and very good in all skills categories. Can’t believe he isn’t talked about more with the Nucks and makes me think they are purposely drawing attention away from him. I feel like guys with question marks, such as Broberg, Cozens (IQ), Dach (effort), Poldz (iq/skills + Russian factor), Caufield (skating) are assumed to have higher upside than guys like Seider and Krebs, and I’m not sure this is justified. If I’m drafting a guy with clear deficiencies for upside he better have the numbers to back it up (Caulfield does, the others don’t).

I agree it's a little puzzling that we haven't heard more about Krebs and the Canucks. It sounds like they have a preference for Newhook.

The answer to the broader question, however, is skating. Broberg, Cozens, Newhook and Krebs are commonly listed as among the best skaters in the draft class. Caufield, Dach, and Podkolzin are relatively weak skaters (not necessarily bad, just relative to the others discussed). Seider is a good skater for his size, but is also nowhere close to the front four mentioned. From what I've read he's also projected as more of a defensive defenseman at the NHL level and is not expected to have a particularly notable offensive game. Broberg is commonly discussed due to the fact he's basically the only guy anyone has identified in the draft outside of Byram that has the tools to actually become elite if he pulls it together.

 

[duplo]

Yeah, not saying the Canucks wouldn't pick Krebs, but so far there hasn't been a single report or mention with his name and the Canucks in the same breath. Like zero smoke there.