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OT: 2019 nCov (part 8)

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Paddyjack

Paddyjack

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Dec 10, 2007
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scrubadam said:
Ok so as others have suggested, I was looking at the Diamond Princess.

712 infected out of 3700 pasangers, thats 19%.

On one hand its a confined space so it makes it more communicable, but OTOH its easier to lock down, and cities have people traveling by bus/car/plane etc.

The whole thing lasted about a month. Our first case was feb 28th, a month ago.

You can factor in a cruise ship is more enclose etc... but I think saying 10-20% is already infected could be a good guess. some places could be lower, some could be higher. Montreal being the epicenter I could see us being on the high end.

200K people infected? Very possible to me.
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I'm not so sure. The problem right now is that the numbers you see these days are still from those who got infected at the return of the springbreak, when these measures were not in place yet. And Montreal being a very festive kind of place, well lots of contacts. I think this week will be the key: if it doesn't start to slowly go down, then Montreal is f***ed.
 
Andy

Andy

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Jun 26, 2008
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To the person who estimated 200k cases in Quebec in a month, no way. Italy doesn’t even have 200k cases in a month and they were way, way, way slower to react that Quebec.

spring break for universities was 3 weeks ago. If there’s going to be an explosion of cases, it’ll be this week.

If anything, I can see the numbers being skewed by returning snowbirds.

Also, Quebec has already tested close to 60k ppl, most of whom were traveling, since that was one of the main criteria. We would have seen a bigger explosion by now of cases.
 
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Phil Parent

Phil Parent

Sorel, 'fant d'chienne!
Feb 4, 2005
15,833
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About the Tosh community, as far as I know, the head of the community, which I guess would be the head rabbi or seniorest rabbi, you tell me, is the one that asked for the police to act because the community wouldn't listen to THEIR instructions and 40% out of 100 community members tested positive to it. So the Tosh leadership themselves threw their hands in the air at the recklessness of their own folks.
 
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Per Sjoblom

Per Sjoblom

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Jan 3, 2018
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Runner77 said:
And this is for you. Carlito has let it be known that you're not sleeping much. :sarcasm:

CKfUFeE.gif


Credit: MIG
Click to expand...


He sleeps like a log though


upload_2020-3-29_18-32-27.png
 
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Catanddogguitarrr

Catanddogguitarrr

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Jul 3, 2016
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Phil Parent said:
About the Tosh community, as far as I know, the head of the community, which I guess would be the head rabbi or seniorest rabbi, you tell me, is the one that asked for the police to act because the community wouldn't listen to THEIR instructions and 40% out of 100 community members tested positive to it. So the Tosh leadership themselves threw their hands in the air at the recklessness of their own folks.
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They are living in a sect and changing their habits is something big. Even if their rabbi ask them to take care they didn't. I can understand they threw their hands in the air at the recklessness of their own folks but who decided the minds of their own folks would be filled 98% with the Torah and nothing else?
 
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scrubadam

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Apr 10, 2016
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Andy said:
To the person who estimated 200k cases in Quebec in a month, no way. Italy doesn’t even have 200k cases in a month and they were way, way, way slower to react that Quebec.

spring break for universities was 3 weeks ago. If there’s going to be an explosion of cases, it’ll be this week.

If anything, I can see the numbers being skewed by returning snowbirds.

Also, Quebec has already tested close to 60k ppl, most of whom were traveling, since that was one of the main criteria. We would have seen a bigger explosion by now of cases.
Click to expand...

Thats because no one has the ability to test everyone.

Now I do take into account that a city is much bigger and spread out then a cruise ship, so that can effect how many people have it. But if in a month it could spread to 20% of the passangers on a cruise ship, how fast do you think it will spread in an area like Cote St Luc or Cote des Nieges. Its possible some places are 30% infected and others are 5% or 10% and 1% etc...

Curise ship is more confined so easier to catch it, but city has more people(carriers) and more traveling so it spreads around.
 

Mike8

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Jun 24, 2002
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scrubadam said:
Thats because no one has the ability to test everyone.

Now I do take into account that a city is much bigger and spread out then a cruise ship, so that can effect how many people have it. But if in a month it could spread to 20% of the passangers on a cruise ship, how fast do you think it will spread in an area like Cote St Luc or Cote des Nieges. Its possible some places are 30% infected and others are 5% or 10% and 1% etc...

Curise ship is more confined so easier to catch it, but city has more people(carriers) and more traveling so it spreads around.
Click to expand...

There's absolutely nothing in common between a cruise ship and Cote des Neiges.
 
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zx81

zx81

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Aug 2, 2005
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Karma Police said:
Btw Italy numbers are skewed because they only took into accounts deaths in the hospital and not at home / outside.

So they have way more deaths than the official number. Same goes for some other countries but I don't remember which ones
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France is another one.
Only hospital deaths are counted.
 
Habs

Habs

We should have drafted Michkov
Feb 28, 2002
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Gyfu

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May 16, 2011
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Lshap said:
I'm still keeping my faith in the US. Yeah, it scares me when I hear some of the batshit crazy stuff coming from some individuals, but I have to think it represents an extreme fringe and not the majority of genuinely good Americans. In the end, despite Trump's moronic declarations, I'm betting state Governors make sure their healthcare resources are solid before telling their populations to get back to work.
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Yiiiish... I wouldn't bet on that... I hope you're right, but i don't have much faith, i hope they prove me wrong
 
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groovejuice

groovejuice

Without deviation progress is not possible
Jun 27, 2011
19,277
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Calgary
Mrb1p said:
Honestly any government withholding information during times like this should face real sanctions.
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I agree, but where do you draw the line? Some countries only count deaths at hospitals. Others may die in a hospital without testin and I doubt in overfilled hospitals they do any kind of post mortems at all.
 
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