Line Combos: 2019 Line Combo Discussion Starter

[PG Canuck]

Oh.. so you are talking points only.
Ok.
Hyperbole. But ok.

Even if he is talking just point production, that isn't a hyperbole. He is not a very good offensive player and he absolutely is an offensive blackhole for his wingers - guy has the worst tunnel vision.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Ferland-petterson-boeser
Baertshi-horvat-Miller
Pearson-Sutter-virtanen
Russell-beagle-leivo

That kind of just seems like our depth chart. But it could be completely different.

Baertshi - horvat - boeser
Miller - petterson - virtanen/goldobin
Ferland - sutter - leivo
Pearson - beagle - roussel

 

[bobbyb2009]

Ferland-petterson-boeser
Baertshi-horvat-Miller
Pearson-Sutter-virtanen
Russell-beagle-leivo

That kind of just seems like our depth chart. But it could be completely different.

Baertshi - horvat - boeser
Miller - petterson - virtanen/goldobin
Ferland - sutter - leivo
Pearson - beagle - roussel

Sven seems to be a wildcard. If he can stay healthy, he can be a useful player, but that is a Big if. Not sure about replacing chemistry of Pearson/Horvat with a guy who isn't likely to make it through the season as a useful player.

 

[petrishriekandgo]

I want 3 scoring lines:

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser
Ferland - Horvat - Pearson
Baertschi/Leivo - Gaudette - Virtanen
MacEwen - Beagle - Motte

 

[Killer Orcas]

Ferland Pettersson Boeser
Pearson Horvat Miller
Roussel Gaudette Virtanen
Leivo Beagle Sutter

When everyone healthy this is what I see. I don't think Sven comes back to be honest.

 

[ziploc]

Ferland Pettersson Boeser
Pearson Horvat Miller
Roussel Gaudette Virtanen
Leivo Beagle Sutter

When everyone healthy this is what I see. I don't think Sven comes back to be honest.

That's a very good fourth line, and good balance throughout. Third line is the question mark I think. And the defense, of course.

 

[BROCK HUGHES]

Ferland Pettersson Boeser
Pearson Horvat Miller
Roussel Gaudette Virtanen
Leivo Beagle Sutter

When everyone healthy this is what I see. I don't think Sven comes back to be honest.

I'm not sure if Sutter gets moved or not.Nice to see Eriksson not penciled in the line up.Im thinking that maybe we still have some moves coming tho.Top six are safe for sure.On defense I'd still like to move Tanev.

 

[Killer Orcas]

I'm not sure if Sutter gets moved or not.Nice to see Eriksson not penciled in the line up.Im thinking that maybe we still have some moves coming tho.Top six are safe for sure.On defense I'd still like to move Tanev.

Would love to see Sutter moved and then we could pencil in Motte there. I'm guessing unless someone surprises in camp Schaller will be with Canucks breaking camp? Tanev I would hope we move at deadline but not until then as we need him to pair with Hughes. Hopefully he gets injured less playing reduced role behind Myers. I'm hoping we take a step forward but considering the draft next season I really want us picking top ten would rather draft with our first in 2020 then 2021 which would then go to Lighting.

 

[BROCK HUGHES]

Would love to see Sutter moved and then we could pencil in Motte there. I'm guessing unless someone surprises in camp Schaller will be with Canucks breaking camp? Tanev I would hope we move at deadline but not until then as we need him to pair with Hughes. Hopefully he gets injured less playing reduced role behind Myers. I'm hoping we take a step forward but considering the draft next season I really want us picking top ten would rather draft with our first in 2020 then 2021 which would then go to Lighting.

something is telling me,Jimbo is going all in this year to make the playoffs and save his job,I'm sure we are going to lose our 2020 pick.Id rather we had it tho.

 

[Canucks1096]

something is telling me,Jimbo is going all in this year to make the playoffs and save his job,I'm sure we are going to lose our 2020 pick.Id rather we had it tho.

It's good then, that means Canucks will make the playoffs and the 2020 pick will not be a lottery pick.

 

[Killer Orcas]

something is telling me,Jimbo is going all in this year to make the playoffs and save his job,I'm sure we are going to lose our 2020 pick.Id rather we had it tho.

Your probably right and that is what scares me the most. Benning all in is terrifying. We've already lost a 1st hopefully we don't lose another with this clown. The best draft in years next season and this fool instead of tanking goes all in mode. Canucks always do things backwards. This would have been year to go young get kids experience and get another blue chip prospect in 2020 draft.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Well... let's just hope the 22 yr old's stalled development continues and his g/gm jumps another 7 pts continuing his lack of improvement.

Go take a look at each of the goals he scored during his hot streak last year.

 

[DL44]

Go take a look at each of the goals he scored during his hot streak last year.

I have.
Let's hope he can bounce his way to 20+ this season.

Now you go look at all his takeaways.
Hopefully the other team keeps hitting his stick with their passes.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Here's my attempt at the Canucks lines with the assumption that Baertschi plays and last out the lines as if we'll actually get to see the team with 100% health at some point in the season. The points listed beside each player are based on that player's average production and games played over the past 3 seasons.

Ferland - Pettersson - Boeser
(18 - 18 - 36) - (28 - 38 - 66) - (28 - 28 - 56)
Pearson - Horvat - Miller
(19 - 18 - 37) - (23 - 39 - 52) - (19 - 34 - 53)
Eriksson - Sutter - Virtanen
(11 - 15 - 26) - (11 - 11 - 22) - (8 - 15 - 23)
Roussel - Beagle - Motte
(9 - 16 - 25) - (8 - 14 - 22) - (6 - 4 - 10)
Baertschi - Schaller - Goldobin
(14 - 12 - 26) - (7 - 8 - 15) - (5 - 7 - 12)
Leivo
(5 - 7 - 12)

Edler - Meyers
(7 - 22 - 29) - (6 - 18 - 24)
Benn - Tanev
(4 - 14 - 18) - (2 - 9 - 11)
Hughes - Stetcher
(5 - 15 - 20) - (2 - 17 - 19)
Fantenberg - Beiga
(1 - 4 - 5) - (1 - 8 - 9)
Random Fill-In Players
(1 - 4 - 5)

Markstrom
(2.74 - 0.912)
Demko
(3.00 - 0.906)

Obviously, a player like Gaudette not seeing the ice or Goldobin only playing the 30 games which produced those point totals aren't especially likely. For Hughes and Demko I had to take a look at comparables, how they did in their rookie/sophomore seasons, and make a guess about how well they'll do. This isn't likely to be exactly how the nex season looks but is close enough to get an idea about the team.

These numbers, combined with a few team stats like shots against, give us a goals for of 248 and a goals against of 234. If this holds it will be the first time since the '14 - '15 season where we've scored more goals than we've allowed and our highest goals scored total since the '10 - '11 season. Those are bubble team numbers though this does require no players decline too sharply and that we get an average level of health.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Ferland-petterson-boeser
Baertshi-horvat-Miller
Pearson-Sutter-virtanen
Russell-beagle-leivo

That kind of just seems like our depth chart. But it could be completely different.

Sutter is the weak link, a quality 3C with some playmaking ability is what we lack, hopefully Gaudette takes a big step forward this season.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Sutter is the weak link, a quality offensive minded 3C is what we lack, hopefully Gaudette takes a big step forward this season.

Fixed that for you.

 

[PavelBure10]

It's nearly impossible to predict next seasons roster. Until Benning deals with the extra glut of forwards, there is no way of telling who will be the odd man out on this roster.

Eriksson is obviously a player who needs a change of scenery. I'm sure Benning is looking to deal him, but it's a daunting task. Until Benning finds a taker, Eriksson unfortunately will most likely still be on the roster next season.

Sven Baertschi is another big question mark. It is unclear if Sven has completely recovered from his injuries, he is one concussion away from retirement. Hopefully "Bear" can avoid being on the IR this year. If he can stay healthy, he will easily be penciled in on the second or third line.

Sutter who was once considered a "foundational piece", is holding up Adam Gaudette's roster position. This one dimensional player is probably on the market, but lacking interest from other teams due to injuries, and a over priced contract. Unfortunately I do not see Gaudette on the roster next year, with Sutter still on the team.

Adam Gaudette, as I said above, will probably be pushed down on the depth chart and starting in Utica. As much as I want to see him penciled in on the third line center position, it might be a good idea to give him some time in Utica to find his offensive instincts. Gaudette for the most part has been unimpressive this far with the Canucks. Until Sutter is dealt, I really don't see him making the roster. Playing huge minutes in Utica, may not be a bad thing.

When Roussel comes off the IR, I see the forward roster kinda looking like this,

Ferland Pettersson Boeser
Pearson Horvat Miller
Roussel Sutter Baertschi
Leivo Beagle Virtanen
Motte (Eriksson)

^Roll all four lines

 

[Canucks1096]

Here's my attempt at the Canucks lines with the assumption that Baertschi plays and last out the lines as if we'll actually get to see the team with 100% health at some point in the season. The points listed beside each player are based on that player's average production and games played over the past 3 seasons.

Ferland - Pettersson - Boeser
(18 - 18 - 36) - (28 - 38 - 66) - (28 - 28 - 56)
Pearson - Horvat - Miller
(19 - 18 - 37) - (23 - 39 - 52) - (19 - 34 - 53)
Eriksson - Sutter - Virtanen
(11 - 15 - 26) - (11 - 11 - 22) - (8 - 15 - 23)
Roussel - Beagle - Motte
(9 - 16 - 25) - (8 - 14 - 22) - (6 - 4 - 10)
Baertschi - Schaller - Goldobin
(14 - 12 - 26) - (7 - 8 - 15) - (5 - 7 - 12)
Leivo
(5 - 7 - 12)

Edler - Meyers
(7 - 22 - 29) - (6 - 18 - 24)
Benn - Tanev
(4 - 14 - 18) - (2 - 9 - 11)
Hughes - Stetcher
(5 - 15 - 20) - (2 - 17 - 19)
Fantenberg - Beiga
(1 - 4 - 5) - (1 - 8 - 9)
Random Fill-In Players
(1 - 4 - 5)

Markstrom
(2.74 - 0.912)
Demko
(3.00 - 0.906)

Obviously, a player like Gaudette not seeing the ice or Goldobin only playing the 30 games which produced those point totals aren't especially likely. For Hughes and Demko I had to take a look at comparables, how they did in their rookie/sophomore seasons, and make a guess about how well they'll do. This isn't likely to be exactly how the nex season looks but is close enough to get an idea about the team.

These numbers, combined with a few team stats like shots against, give us a goals for of 248 and a goals against of 234. If this holds it will be the first time since the '14 - '15 season where we've scored more goals than we've allowed and our highest goals scored total since the '10 - '11 season. Those are bubble team numbers though this does require no players decline too sharply and that we get an average level of health.

Very odd for a player to post the exact same goal and assist total, I expect Petey point total to be at least ppg. Having Boeser for the full season, better Lw, better pp with Hughes on it and also Petey was on Pace for around 90 points in the first half, he got burnt out in the second half. This season Petey will be more prepare playing a full season.

Horvat one point increase while having Pearson and a legit second line winger his whole season. He will be on a better power play as well. With Sutter in the lineup That means Horvat won't get 40 % D zone faceoffs. It will Get around 50%. I expect Horvat numbers just to be a little bit higher.

I can see Hughes getting about 20 pp, I can't see Hughes getting only 20 points the whole season. I expect around 40 points in the first season.

I expect Demko numbers to be a little bit better. I won't be surprised if Demko puts up a plus 915 SP.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Very odd for a player to post the exact same goal and assist total, I expect Petey point total to be at least ppg. Having Boeser for the full season, better Lw, better pp with Hughes on it and also Petey was on Pace for around 90 points in the first half, he got burnt out in the second half. This season Petey will be more prepare playing a full season.

Horvat one point increase while having Pearson and a legit second line winger his whole season. He will be on a better power play as well. With Sutter in the lineup That means Horvat won't get 40 % D zone faceoffs. It will Get around 50%. I expect Horvat numbers just to be a little bit higher.

I can see Hughes getting about 20 pp, I can't see Hughes getting only 20 points the whole season. I expect around 40 points in the first season.

I expect Demko numbers to be a little bit better. I won't be surprised if Demko puts up a plus 915 SP.

For Pettersson, having near the same PPG pace would be expected based on sophomore seasons of comparable players over the past 10 years. The exact same totals aren't as likely but being within 10% of their rookie totals is the most common outcome even for players of his skill level. You can see my post in the dedicated Pettersson thread for my methodology and his comparables.

For Horvat, he's bound to plateau eventually, and this could be that season. That said, my methodology, which was in my post if you cared to read it, works less well for players on an up or downswing in production. I'd expect a modest increase in Horvat's production. I'd also expect a few players to disappoint compared to my assessment so things ought to balance out.

I prefer a conservative estimate for players which we have limited data on. Dahlin didn't hit 45 points and comes in more physically developed than Hughes. Over the last 10 years, only 10 defensemen have put up 40 points as rookies, do you think Hughes is in the top 10% of rookie defensemen over that span?

Almost every sophomore goalie's numbers slump as they play more games and face teams that have them scouted. I'd expect Demko to start around 22 games and play 28 or so total this season compared to playing in 9 last season. Under those circumstances, the historical trend is for numbers to dip a little bit as the player adjusts to their role in the NHL. Demko would be an exception if he improved his numbers from last season.

 

[Canucks1096]

For Pettersson, having near the same PPG pace would be expected based on sophomore seasons of comparable players over the past 10 years. The exact same totals aren't as likely but being within 10% of their rookie totals is the most common outcome even for players of his skill level. You can see my post in the dedicated Pettersson thread for my methodology and his comparables.

For Horvat, he's bound to plateau eventually, and this could be that season. That said, my methodology, which was in my post if you cared to read it, works less well for players on an up or downswing in production. I'd expect a modest increase in Horvat's production. I'd also expect a few players to disappoint compared to my assessment so things ought to balance out.

I prefer a conservative estimate for players which we have limited data on. Dahlin didn't hit 45 points and comes in more physically developed than Hughes. Over the last 10 years, only 10 defensemen have put up 40 points as rookies, do you think Hughes is in the top 10% of rookie defensemen over that span?

Almost every sophomore goalie's numbers slump as they play more games and face teams that have them scouted. I'd expect Demko to start around 22 games and play 28 or so total this season compared to playing in 9 last season. Under those circumstances, the historical trend is for numbers to dip a little bit as the player adjusts to their role in the NHL. Demko would be an exception if he improved his numbers from last season.

Petey has 0.92 ppg, so within 10% of their rookie total is most common? So a ppg season is not out of the reach.

Considering the fact Hughes was a better offensive D than most D on that plus 40 point rookie list at around the same age. He is definitely in that top 10%. Also Dahlin was 18 in his first year and Hughes will be 20. Not a fair compairson. That list I will say only Dahlin and Werenski, Hughes wasn't better at around the same age. I think most will agree Hughes is a better pp qb than Edler. Edler has 17 pp last season. I see no way Hughes getting only 20 points aside from injuries.

I highly doubt that there is clear evidences that most second year goalies stats don't improve. Sorry I am little too lazy to check. Can you show me a list? If you look at Canucks second year goalies the last 30 years, Brodeur, McLean, Hirsch, Schneider, Lack. Only Hirsch numbers didn't improve.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Petey has 0.92 ppg, so within 10% of their rookie total is most common? So a ppg season is not out of the reach.

Yes, but it's equally likely he scores 10% less which is why I estimated his points as being the same. If anything I'd have been slightly safer to estimate a slight decrease given that historic trends.

Considering the fact Hughes was a better offensive D than most D on that plus 40 point rookie list at around the same age. He is definitely in that top 10%. Also Dahlin was 18 in his first year and Hughes will be 20. Not a fair compairson. That list I will say only Dahlin and Werenski, Hughes wasn't better at around the same age. I think most will agree Hughes is a better pp qb than Edler. Edler has 17 pp last season. I see no way Hughes getting only 20 points aside from injuries.

A lot of this depends on how healthy Hughes is and how the coach deploys him. Given that bother Pettersson and Boser both lost 9+ games in their first two seasons and that defensemen tend to take more hits in the corners I wouldn't be surprised to see Hughes play only 60 games next season. If he's healthy, and actually gets to play on PP1 consistently (neither are a given) I could see his totals being higher than my prediction.

I highly doubt that there is clear evidences that most second year goalies stats don't improve. Sorry I am little too lazy to check. Can you show me a list? If you look at Canucks second year goalies the last 30 years, Brodeur, McLean, Hirsch, Schneider, Lack. Only Hirsch numbers didn't improve.

Kuemper 2.08 to 2.43 | 0.916 to 0.915
Jones 1.81 to 2.24 | 0.934 to 0.906
Greiss 2.68 to 2.30 | 0.912 to 0.915
Vasilevskiy 2.36 to 2.76 | 0.918 to 0.910
Varlamov 2.37 to 2.55 | 0.918 to 0.909
Montoya 2.08 to 2.39 | 0.925 to 0.921
Allen 2.46 to 2.28 | 0.905 to 0.913
Holtby 1.79 to 2.50 | 0.934 to 0.922
Ortio 2.52 to 2.76 | 0.908 to 0.902
Pickard 2.35 to 2.58 | 0.932 to 0.922
Kinkaid 2.59 to 2.81 | 0.915 to 0.904
Berube 2.71 to 3.42 | 0.914 to 0.889
Enroth 2.73 to 2.70 | 0.907 to 0.917
Domingue 2.73 to 2.75 | 0.911 to 0.912
Neuvirth 2.75 to 2.45 | 0.914 to 0.914
Bachman 2.77 to 3.25 | 0.910 to 0.885
Peters 2.83 to 3.98 | 0.905 to 0.875
Poulin 2.44 to 3.04 | 0.924 to 0.907
Georgiev 3.15 to 2.91 | 0.918 to 0.914

Red shows worse, blue shows better, green shows the same. You could try to argue that Neuvirth was better due to his GAA being a bit lower, but given his Sv% that just means he faced fewer shots per game which isn't something a goalie can control. Notice how 13 out of 19 goalies have a worst sophomore season, while only 5 improved in both GAA and Sv%, that shows that most goalies who had a season with a Sv% like Demko had last season regress the next season.

 

[Canucks1096]

Yes, but it's equally likely he scores 10% less which is why I estimated his points as being the same. If anything I'd have been slightly safer to estimate a slight decrease given that historic trends.



A lot of this depends on how healthy Hughes is and how the coach deploys him. Given that bother Pettersson and Boser both lost 9+ games in their first two seasons and that defensemen tend to take more hits in the corners I wouldn't be surprised to see Hughes play only 60 games next season. If he's healthy, and actually gets to play on PP1 consistently (neither are a given) I could see his totals being higher than my prediction.



Kuemper 2.08 to 2.43 | 0.916 to 0.915
Jones 1.81 to 2.24 | 0.934 to 0.906
[color=blueGreiss 2.68 to 2.30 | 0.912 to 0.915[/color]
Vasilevskiy 2.36 to 2.76 | 0.918 to 0.910
Varlamov 2.37 to 2.55 | 0.918 to 0.909

Montoya 2.08 to 2.39 | 0.925 to 0.921
[color=blueAllen 2.46 to 2.28 | 0.905 to 0.913[/color]
Holtby 1.79 to 2.50 | 0.934 to 0.922
Ortio 2.52 to 2.76 | 0.908 to 0.902
Pickard 2.35 to 2.58 | 0.932 to 0.922

Kinkaid 2.59 to 2.81 | 0.915 to 0.904
Berube 2.71 to 3.42 | 0.914 to 0.889
[color=blueEnroth 2.73 to 2.70 | 0.907 to 0.917 [/color]
[color=blueDomingue 2.73 to 2.75 | 0.911 to 0.912 [/color]
Neuvirth 2.75 to 2.45 | 0.914 to 0.914

Bachman 2.77 to 3.25 | 0.910 to 0.885
Peters 2.83 to 3.98 | 0.905 to 0.875
Poulin 2.44 to 3.04 | 0.924 to 0.907
Georgiev 3.15 to 2.91 | 0.918 to 0.914

Red shows worse, blue shows better, green shows the same. You could try to argue that Neuvirth was better due to his GAA being a bit lower, but given his Sv% that just means he faced fewer shots per game which isn't something a goalie can control. Notice how 13 out of 19 goalies have a worst sophomore season, while only 5 improved in both GAA and Sv%, that shows that most goalies who had a season with a Sv% like Demko had last season regress the next season.

Question who are you comparing Petey too when you are saying you are comparing other comparable second year players? There are not many rookies that put up at least 0.92 ppg.

Stecher had 24 P in 71 games during his first year, no disrespect for Stecher, he doesn't even have half of the skill Hughes has.

These goalies had better second season, Allen, Niemi, Elliot, MAF, Dubynk, Bernier, Quick, Gross, Miller, Varlamov, Luongo, Schneider, like I said there is no clear evidence to suggest goalies have worst 2 year season.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Question who are you comparing Petey too when you are saying you are comparing other comparable second year players? There are not many rookies that put up at least 0.92 ppg.

Stecher had 24 P in 71 games during his first year, no disrespect for Stecher, he doesn't even have half of the skill Hughes has.

These goalies had better second season, Allen, Niemi, Elliot, MAF, Dubynk, Bernier, Quick, Gross, Miller, Varlamov, Luongo, Schneider, like I said there is no clear evidence to suggest goalies have worst 2 year season.

I literally told you where to look to see my work on Pettersson comparables. Specifically they were players who scored between 60 and 75 points in the rookie seasons.

Stetcher was significantly older in his rookie year and as you pointed out that makes a difference. You also seem to ignore the concept of a conservative estimate. If you want to do the work to look at comparables be my guest, until then I think we're done here.

Show you work, explain how goalies within Demko's games played and Sv% range progressedan from their rookie to sophomore seasons.

 

[Bankerguy]

people are putting too much weight on the chemistey between Pearson and Horvat... they played 15 games guys...

If Baertschi is healthy you HAVE to staple him on Horvats Left Wing

Pearson is gritty and would SHINE on the third line. Gives us USEFULL depth, where as Baertschi's style wouldnt compliment a third line at all

Ferland Petey Boeser
Baertschi Horvat Miller
Pearson Sutter Virtanen
Roussel Beagle/Gaudette Leivo

Left side depth here is very impressive. We just need an upgrade at 3C... a 30 point two-way 3C would do wonders

 

[Canucks1096]

I literally told you where to look to see my work on Pettersson comparables. Specifically they were players who scored between 60 and 75 points in the rookie seasons.

Stetcher was significantly older in his rookie year and as you pointed out that makes a difference. You also seem to ignore the concept of a conservative estimate. If you want to do the work to look at comparables be my guest, until then I think we're done here.

Show you work, explain how goalies within Demko's games played and Sv% range progressedan from their rookie to sophomore seasons.

I do what to say this, I have no idea on what your definition of the word "around" your goalie game example range from 3 games all the way to the 20s. You want me yo look at around the same the save Percentage. You have anywhere from 908 all the way to 932 save percentages as your example. So 17% apart from Demko. So Demko had a 915 save percentage so I can use anywhere from 898 to 932 I guess which most goalies have that save percentage.

These are my examples that I came up with. A few games to about 20 games 1st vs 2nd years and these are the goalies that have their numbers improve. Allen, Elliot, MAF, Bernier, Quick,Gross, Dubynk, Halak, Schneider, Rask, Crawford, Bishop, Howard. Your original argument almost all sophomore go through a slump is 100% not accurate

Yes I did say age matters but I think if we are talking about elite young player svs ok young players. I don't think it matter much considering the fact Hughes as 19 year old already had a better college season than a 22 year old Stecher.

There are no evidences that indicates more rookies have second year slump vs getting better. It is not a higher chance Petey won't improve in his second year.

Also btw some of your goalies examples you comparing a few games from year 1 to year 2. I dont think the Data that you are working with, won't be close to accurate. The sample size is too small.