Prospect Info: 2019 Draft Thread: Oilers Picking 8th

[gordonhught]

The Maroon trade. When we traded for Wideman. The Spooner for Gagner trade.

Jerebek for a 6th
A 3rd for Marody
Davidson for a 3rd
Scrivens for Kassian
Perron for Klinkhammer and a 1st.

We aren't making bad trades cause the big bad other teams are out to get little ol us.

We were making bad trades because we had bad management in place.

I agree with Maroon. Gagner was a wash. Wideman was a loss.

The 3rd for Marody was OK (but you are effectively trading Marody for Maroon in this case - so the jury is still out)

Otherwise, you are going back 4 years for a history of trades that the Oilers may have won.

BTW Perron for the 1st was completely offset by the Reinhart trade.

In conclusion, this list of winning trades is brutal. Getting a 6th round pick for a bad free agent signing should not count as winning a trade.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Injury.

Thanks, what kind? This could be a blessing in disguise if he drops to 8th.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I agree with Maroon. Gagner was a wash. Wideman was a loss.

The 3rd for Marody was OK (but you are effectively trading Marody for Maroon in this case - so the jury is still out)

Otherwise, you are going back 4 years for a history of trades that the Oilers may have won.

BTW Perron for the 1st was completely offset by the Reinhart trade.

In conclusion, this list of winning trades is brutal. Getting a 6th round pick for a bad free agent signing should not count as winning a trade.

Yes, Chiarelli made a lot of dumb trades. Starting with the Hall and Reinhart trades. Had nothing to do with the league being out to get us.

If your thought is we don't make good trades cause the other teams won't let us then you are essentially arguing that Chiarelli isn't an idiot

Gagner for Spooner isn't a wash. Gagner is twice the player Spooner is right now. That's a win.

Doesn't matter how we got that third, getting Marody, a guy that's PPG in his first pro season for a third round pick is a win.

But no continue your narrative.

 

[Aerrol]

We've drafted one Russian high in the last decade.

Each draft pick is an independent case, personally I believe that Podkolzin's talents and abilities matter much much more than his nationality, but that might just be me

+ @dustrock + @McCupofOil

@Zaddy has raised the following point before and I agree. If Podkolzin's talents and abilities are SO can't miss, can you please explain his stats in the KHL, VHL, and MHL to me? His low World Jrs Production this year? It's undeniable that the player has amazing physical tools and talent. But his production, and frankly in my viewings, VERY up and down play within a game and game to game, and poor English just SCREAM project.

The Oilers SHOULD NOT BE DRAFTING A EUROPEAN PROJECT. We will absolutely ruin him.

 

[gordonhught]

Yes, Chiarelli made a lot of dumb trades. Starting with the Hall and Reinhart trades. Had nothing to do with the league being out to get us.

If your thought is we don't make good trades cause the other teams won't let us then you are essentially arguing that Chiarelli isn't an idiot

Gagner for Spooner isn't a wash. Gagner is twice the player Spooner is right now. That's a win.

Doesn't matter how we got that third, getting Marody, a guy that's PPG in his first pro season for a third round pick is a win.

But no continue your narrative.

Is this MacT?

 

[gordonhught]

+ @dustrock

@Zaddy has raised the following point before and I agree. If Podkolzin's talents and abilities are SO can't miss, can you please explain his stats in the KHL, VHL, and MHL to me? His low World Jrs Production this year? It's undeniable that the player has amazing physical tools and talent. But his production, and frankly in my viewings, VERY up and down play within a game and game to game, and poor English just SCREAM project.

The Oilers SHOULD NOT BE DRAFTING A EUROPEAN PROJECT. We will absolutely ruin him.

Podkolzin = Paajarvi (equal but different).

 

[CycloneSweep]

Is this MacT?

What? Are you MacT? MacT would love to push the blame away from the org and onto someone else.

 

[CycloneSweep]

+ @dustrock + @McCupofOil

@Zaddy has raised the following point before and I agree. If Podkolzin's talents and abilities are SO can't miss, can you please explain his stats in the KHL, VHL, and MHL to me? His low World Jrs Production this year? It's undeniable that the player has amazing physical tools and talent. But his production, and frankly in my viewings, VERY up and down play within a game and game to game, and poor English just SCREAM project.

The Oilers SHOULD NOT BE DRAFTING A EUROPEAN PROJECT. We will absolutely ruin him.

Yakupov busted so freaking hard, can you explain his junior stats?

 

[Aerrol]

Podkolzin = Paajarvi (equal but different).

Uh, I'm not sure I see that... different playstyles by far, different projected draft ranking and hype. But in terms of what I'd see the Oilers developing him into, yeah Paajarvi is a good comparable.

 

[Joey Moss]

Here's an idea for trading down based on statsportconsulting's scale for what value each draft pick is worth in a trade. These trades are contingent upon Columbus not getting into the semi-finals (which...I'm not betting against, but...)

(in parenthesis are the numeric values of each draft position)
Trade 1
To OTT: #8 (629)

To EDM: #19 (364) + #32 (246) = (610) (Maybe OTT adds their 7th rounder (64) to sweeten the pot slightly)

Why Ottawa does this?: they still have another 2nd from FLA, and they need to find some redemption for their horrible situation - they need top end players

Trade 2
To ARI*: #32 (246) + #38 (211) = (457) (*or another team in that range)

To EDM: #14 (456)

So in this scenario, we end up with #14 and #19. I'm no draft expert, but if we could walk away with two of Caufield, Kaliyev, Lavoie, Tomasino, Heinola and York, that would be a fantastic draft for us.

Thoughts? Would that scenario be better than keeping our #8 (Krebs, Zegras, Boldy, etc.) and #38 (not sure who is in that range)...?

That first trade is not good value at all.

For reference, Philadelphia traded 29 + a 2nd to move up 5 spots in 2015. You don't move down from 8 to 19 and only get a 2nd, that's a huge drop off.

 

[CycloneSweep]

That first trade is not good value at all.

For reference, Philadelphia traded 29 + a 2nd to move up 5 spots in 2015. You don't move down from 8 to 19 and only get a 2nd, that's a huge drop off.

Depends on the spot the 2nd round pick is. 32 overall let's you easily pick a 1st round talent that fell. It has much more value than a mid 2nd or late 2nd.
That said, add a 3rd or 4th and it's even

 

[Aerrol]

Yakupov busted so freaking hard, can you explain his junior stats?

Uh, I'm not sure I follow the comparison here. If anything, the fact that we took a top-rated Russian with phenomenal junior stats but an incomplete game, and totally ruined him (despite him having more time invested in adapting to NA already) is even more argument for not taking Podolzkin, no?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Uh, I'm not sure I follow the comparison here. If anything, the fact that we took a top-rated Russian with phenomenal junior stats but an incomplete game, and totally ruined him (despite him having more time invested in adapting to NA already) is even more argument for not taking Podolzkin, no?

No. All depends on who the GM ends up being and their philosophy. If the new guy wants to do the over develop guys which currently appears to be the method, I wouldn't worry about ruining him, especially with our great AHL team.

My point was, points aren't everything at the junior level. Especially when looking at foreign leagues

 

[McDNicks17]

It's going to be interesting to see where Maxim Cajkovic goes.

Didn't do much in Saint John this season(46p in 60gp), but he was the guy who destroyed the U18s last season(11p in 5gp).

Sitting at 2 goals after the first game in this year's U18.

 

[Joey Moss]

Depends on the spot the 2nd round pick is. 32 overall let's you easily pick a 1st round talent that fell. It has much more value than a mid 2nd or late 2nd.
That said, add a 3rd or 4th and it's even

I like to look at probabilities from where you're picking. So if you take a look at 7th,8th,9th overall picks - 17th,18th,19th overall picks + 31st,32nd,33rd overall picks it's pretty brutal. Using three picks for fair sampling.

2010 - Skinner/Burmistrov/Granlund - Watson/Bjugstad/Bennett + Pitick/Knight/McFarland
2011 - Scheifele/Couturier/Hamilton - McNeill/Klefbom/C. Murphy + Musil/Grimaldi/Rattie
2012 - Dumba/Pouliot/Trouba - Hertl/Teravainen/Vasilevskiy + Dansk/Moroz/Collberg
2013 - Nurse/Ristolainen/Horvat - Mueller/Rychel/Mantha + McCoshen/Bigras/Erne
2014 - Fleury/Nylander/Ehlers - Tuch/DeAngelo/Schmaltz + Lemieux/Hawrlyuk/Barbashev
2015 - Provorov/Werenski/Meier - Chabot/Svechnikov/Eriksson-Ek + Roy/Fischer/Stephens
2016 - Keller/Nylander/Sergachev - Fabbro/Stanley/Bellows + Korshkov/Benson/Asplund

Not good enough value.. You don't drop that much for a mystery box at 32.

 

[Aerrol]

No. All depends on who the GM ends up being and their philosophy. If the new guy wants to do the over develop guys which currently appears to be the method, I wouldn't worry about ruining him, especially with our great AHL team.

My point was, points aren't everything at the junior level. Especially when looking at foreign leagues

Development is much more than just what the new guy does. Even if we hired Stevie Y magically, he would have to take time to overhaul ALL of our staff and get approval for new trainers, new translators, develop new training programs to hand out to each prospect etc. The Oilers have a track record as proven as you can possibly get showing that they have 0 idea how to develop project prospects, especially those from Europe.

Points absolutely aren't the end-all-be-all, but they're definitely a significant factor. There's been multiple examples shown (I don't have the time to dig up the blog posts, sorry) that just drafting SOLELY based on junior point output would out-performing the draft records of many NHL teams (I believe Vancouver was the case study I remember most vividly).

Points in other leagues aren't the SAME as CHL/OHL for sure, but lets look at some comparable Russians:

Edit - Podolzkin:
Vasili Podkolzin at eliteprospects.com

Kucherov (much earlier, but as good of any to show what they CAN do): over a point per game in the MHL D-1 and Draft years: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com

Kravtsov: Maybe arguably similar stats, but still better in the MHL and VHL, AND he had a crazy KHL playoffs when given the opportunity: Vitali Kravtsov at eliteprospects.com

Nichushkin: Arguably similar stats again, but still better: (Podolzkin also reminds me a lot of Nichushkin but shiftier and smaller): Valeri Nichushkin at eliteprospects.com

Denisenko: Another similar player in terms of stats not lining p with the package. It's too bad he was only drafted last year Grigori Denisenko at eliteprospects.com

Kuznetsov: WAAAY better numbers in the MHL too. Yevgeni Kuznetsov at eliteprospects.com

edit: wtf, my links got screwed up...fixed.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Development is much more than just what the new guy does. Even if we hired Stevie Y magically, he would have to take time to overhaul ALL of our staff and get approval for new trainers, new translators, develop new training programs to hand out to each prospect etc. The Oilers have a track record as proven as you can possibly get showing that they have 0 idea how to develop project prospects, especially those from Europe.

Points absolutely aren't the end-all-be-all, but they're definitely a significant factor. There's been multiple examples shown (I don't have the time to dig up the blog posts, sorry) that just drafting SOLELY based on junior point output would out-performing the draft records of many NHL teams (I believe Vancouver was the case study I remember most vividly).

Points in other leagues aren't the SAME as CHL/OHL for sure, but lets look at some comparable Russians:

Kucherov (much earlier, but as good of any to show what they CAN do): over a point per game in the MHL D-1 and Draft years: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com

Kravtsov: Maybe arguably similar stats, but still better in the MHL and VHL, AND he had a crazy KHL playoffs when given the opportunity: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com

Nichushkin: Arguably similar stats again, but still better: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com (Podolzkin also reminds me a lot of Nichushkin but shiftier and smaller)

Denisenko: Another similar player in terms of stats not lining p with the package. It's too bad he was only drafted last year Grigori Denisenko at eliteprospects.com

Kuznetsov: WAAAY better numbers in the MHL too. Yevgeni Kuznetsov at eliteprospects.com

So we should draft Kaliyev
Edit: His numbers destroy all the CHL guys ranked ahead of him by like...30-40 points.

 

[CupofOil]

+ @dustrock + @McCupofOil

@Zaddy has raised the following point before and I agree. If Podkolzin's talents and abilities are SO can't miss, can you please explain his stats in the KHL, VHL, and MHL to me? His low World Jrs Production this year? It's undeniable that the player has amazing physical tools and talent. But his production, and frankly in my viewings, VERY up and down play within a game and game to game, and poor English just SCREAM project.

The Oilers SHOULD NOT BE DRAFTING A EUROPEAN PROJECT. We will absolutely ruin him.

Because there's more to projecting to the next level than just stats.

I was contesting @Zaddy saying that Podkolzin isn't a complete player yet posted a bunch of attributes (compete, 2 way play, great shot, good hands) that make him a complete player which pretty much lines up with a lot of the scouting reports. I'm not saying that the Oilers should take him over Krebs and Zegras necessarily (I'm a big fan of Krebs btw), I'm just saying that I think some people are overstating his weaknesses and are underestimating his strengths.

I also think there's some recency bias due to what has transpired with Paajarvi and Puljujarvi and assuming that every Euro forward prospect is automatically going to follow the same path here. At least Zaddy provided in depth analysis of his game after extensive video watching but some others are just assuming that he'll suck here because of past failures with Euros. I get the trepidation but not every prospect is built with the same makeup and not every regime is going to fail at developing just because previous regimes failed.

 

[McFlash97]

Zegras ends up being the 3rd or 4th best player in this draft. Mark my words. Really looking into his game and his ability to read and react and make things happen on the ice when he is cornered really bodes well for him in the NHL.

 

[McKappa]

I get the sentiment and probably just about any other year I'd agree. However beyond being Russian, look at how we've botched the Puljujarvi pick. Basically the last European player that we drafted high and developed was Klefbom. Drafting a western Canadian kid means no culture shock and he fits seamlessly onto our team. If Podkolzin is by far the BPA then you take him and leave him in Russia at least a year, maybe 2.

imo, if hes available he will likely be the BPA

Assuming Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, and Zegras are gone in this scenario

 

[McKappa]

I keep hearing about this Tomasino as well. Haven't seen any of the draft rankings having him higher than 14 though.

Outside of the projected top 8 0f Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Zebras, I'd think our team looks at (in no particular order):
Matthew Boldy
Raphael Lavoie
Philip Tomasino
Cole Caufield
Cam York

This is not the projected top 8 wtf

 

[Zaddy]

Zaddy - I think it was Steve Kournianos (and take him or leave him, he looks at these guys every year) who recently said he thought Podkolzin had the best anticipation and off-the-puck sense of almost any prospect he's seen in the last 4 years.

That's the literal opposite of your view on his hockey IQ. I'm not questioning what you watched but man the consensus is very high on him.

I'm also reading tweets from today's performance where he didn't have a point but was said to be one of the best players on the ice.

It's a tough one.

To be frank, I couldn't care less about Steve's opinions on prospects. I think he actually have me ignored on this site because I called him out last year and said that a lot of scouts don't take him seriously (I know this for a fact). He watches a lot of hockey I'm sure, but watching a lot of hockey doesn't naturally make you a good analyst or scout, in the same way that being a hall of famer doesn't naturally make you a good coach or manager.

Either way, people are free to disagree with me and my opinions. I'm just calling it like I see it, like I've always been. Time will tell if I'm an idiot or not

I also want to reiterate that even though I may sound very critical of some of these guys, that doesn't mean that I think they will bust, it just means that I don't think they are as good of prospects as they're hyped to be and I believe their realistic upside is lower than what the consensus would dictate.

I think that's a healthy way to look at prospects honestly. You can look through any draft and compare the players pre-draft scouting reports to the actual players they became and see a big discrepancy. The hype around these guys ranked in the top10-15 of every draft is almost never higher than in their draft year.

But not everyone can be a superstar or even a first liner in the NHL, so my goal is really to identify who those guys are who are overhyped and will not reach the lofty expectations placed upon them by examining their game with a really critical eye.

 

[Zaddy]

It's going to be interesting to see where Maxim Cajkovic goes.

Didn't do much in Saint John this season(46p in 60gp), but he was the guy who destroyed the U18s last season(11p in 5gp).

Sitting at 2 goals after the first game in this year's U18.

Victim of a really, really poor team. He was the leading scorer on his team with 46 points. Next closest to him had 34 points. Insanely low scoring team. He's a good player. I saw him several times in Sweden last season. He's a very viable candidate with the Oilers 2nd round pick.

 

[alphahelix]

Development is much more than just what the new guy does. Even if we hired Stevie Y magically, he would have to take time to overhaul ALL of our staff and get approval for new trainers, new translators, develop new training programs to hand out to each prospect etc. The Oilers have a track record as proven as you can possibly get showing that they have 0 idea how to develop project prospects, especially those from Europe.

Points absolutely aren't the end-all-be-all, but they're definitely a significant factor. There's been multiple examples shown (I don't have the time to dig up the blog posts, sorry) that just drafting SOLELY based on junior point output would out-performing the draft records of many NHL teams (I believe Vancouver was the case study I remember most vividly).

Points in other leagues aren't the SAME as CHL/OHL for sure, but lets look at some comparable Russians:

Kucherov (much earlier, but as good of any to show what they CAN do): over a point per game in the MHL D-1 and Draft years: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com

Kravtsov: Maybe arguably similar stats, but still better in the MHL and VHL, AND he had a crazy KHL playoffs when given the opportunity: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com

Nichushkin: Arguably similar stats again, but still better: Nikita Kucherov at eliteprospects.com (Podolzkin also reminds me a lot of Nichushkin but shiftier and smaller)

Denisenko: Another similar player in terms of stats not lining p with the package. It's too bad he was only drafted last year Grigori Denisenko at eliteprospects.com

Kuznetsov: WAAAY better numbers in the MHL too. Yevgeni Kuznetsov at eliteprospects.com

I dont understand why journalists and team executives have finally identified pro scouting as a major problem but player development is getting 0 attention. Yes, the AHL system seems much improved but everything else is still remarkable in its failures. Look at all of our busts and players that have failed here only to succeed elsewhere. Our drafting seems like it’s “good enough” vs. League average without an in depth analysis, but player development is broken. Why is there no attention on this? If they’re not talking about it I have no faith that it will be addressed. They are hardly capable of addressing their biggest identified needs (maybe not capable at all?) let alone fixing what are apparently lower or unidentified priorities.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I dont understand why journalists and team executives have finally identified pro scouting as a major problem but player development is getting 0 attention. Yes, the AHL system seems much improved but everything else is still remarkable in its failures. Look at all of our busts and players that have failed here only to succeed elsewhere. Our drafting seems like it’s “good enough” vs. League average without an in depth analysis, but player development is broken. Why is there no attention on this? If they’re not talking about it I have no faith that it will be addressed. They are hardly capable of addressing their biggest identified needs (maybe not capable at all?) let alone fixing what are apparently lower or unidentified priorities.

They have mentioned development. They mentioned putting a focus on not rushing players to the NHL and having them overripen. It's why when we called guys up later in the year it was guys like Currie, Malone and Gambardella, not Marody and Benson.