GDT: 2019 Draft Lottery

[Bench]

Since 2008, every single Cup champion has had multiple 2nd round picks on their team.

Let's play a game then. You name the 2nd round Hall of Fame players and I'll name the top 3 selections. We'll see which list had more impact?

My turn: Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Doughty.
And just for fun, we'll throw in guys like Toews, Fleury, and Seguin.

That list above includes 6 of the 10 Conn Smythe winners over that span. Two of the other winners were goalies and the other two are Keith (2nd rounder!!!) and Williams.

 

[Leadzedder]

The second thing you’re looking for is....

Detroit not to be called when it’s their turn.

It’ll go NYR then BUF... then hopefully NJD.

(Unless of course one of those teams has jumped into the top 3).

Damn it would be exciting to be top 3. We’ve experienced lots as wings fans but never that.

 

[obey86]

And I'm sure the majority of their best players have come from those second rounders, right? C'mon now.

Great teams find talent throughout the draft and from other sources, but let's not pretend that elite players have zero correlation with draft position.

It's about as stupid as implying it's a requirement to have a top 3 pick to win the cup because Tyler Seguin put up 7 points in 13 playoff games (and just 22 regular season points) as the #2 pick.

Or ignoring all the cup finalists who have actually had good enough teams to win a cup but just didn't because hockey is such a random sport sometimes. For example, is the reason Nashville hasn't won a cup because Filip Forsberg or PK Subbaan weren't top 3 picks? If we pretended they were top 3 picks, would Nashville be more likely to win a cup?

 

[Marky9er]

I won't be that mad if Witkowski plays alongside Hughes for the first year. Just saying, until he grows up.

 

[SCD]

It helps. A lot. Since 2008 every single Cup champion has had at minimum one top 3 pick.

We get that in 2020.

 

[jkutswings]

It's about as stupid as implying it's a requirement to have a top 3 pick to win the cup because Tyler Seguin put up 7 points in 13 playoff games (and just 22 regular season points) as the #2 pick.

Or ignoring all the cup finalists who have actually had good enough teams to win a cup but just didn't because hockey is such a random sport sometimes. For example, is the reason Nashville hasn't won a cup because Filip Forsberg or PK Subbaan weren't top 3 picks? If we pretended they were top 3 picks, would Nashville be more likely to win a cup?

Understood, but after the vast majority of this season being awful, is there anything wrong with wanting the cream of the crop to show for it?

I'm not disputing that your can build a very good team without a top 3 pick. But if I have a great chance to land one, I'd be crazy to not want one badly. Colorado has roughly 50/50 odds, while we have a 28.8% chance. I really hope Detroit takes an awesome player, wherever they draft, but Hughes or Kakko would be amazing to add to the kids they've already gotten.

 

[Frk It]

Delete - wrong thread

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Every time I click the Tankathon simulation, the Wings lose draft position, so I'm fully prepared for disappoinment.

i just simmed it twice and edmonton won it and then buffalo won it.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

It's about as stupid as implying it's a requirement to have a top 3 pick to win the cup because Tyler Seguin put up 7 points in 13 playoff games (and just 22 regular season points) as the #2 pick.

Or ignoring all the cup finalists who have actually had good enough teams to win a cup but just didn't because hockey is such a random sport sometimes. For example, is the reason Nashville hasn't won a cup because Filip Forsberg or PK Subbaan weren't top 3 picks? If we pretended they were top 3 picks, would Nashville be more likely to win a cup?

i think people tend to forget that even if you do draft in the top 3 like the hawks did getting kane and toews, it doesn't mean much if they aren't able to draft in the later rounds. having a top 3 pick increases your chances to get a great player, but if you don't draft well in later rounds, its tought to surround the top picks with the talent they need to win, i'm looking at you edmonton.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I have no anxiety about this. I hate 2019 and everything it represents so far (with one VERY big exception that happened on St Paddy's Day. But even if the worst is to happen and we draft 7OA, we are still guaranteed a fantastic player this year.

We are not "guaranteed" a fantastic player. Who is the best 7OA in the past ten years?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Ivan provorov is a 1d.
Zach werenski was 8oa and he is a 1d
Clayton Keller sure looked like a 1C his rookie year.

The thing is, Cozens and Dach have gotten top 3 pub. Hughes and kakko are 1 and 2. Byram has gotten a bunch of love. And then Turcotte and Podkolzin are usually listed at like 3 or 4

Some more. Mark Scheifele was a 7th I think. There is a decent amount of top 7 picks that go on to fabulous careers. But the point was that we are going to get a very skilled player no matter what.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Anything outside of a top three pick will end up being absolutely brutal for the Wings rebuild.

Who is the consensus No.3 pick? Outside of Hughes and Kakko it seems like 3-7 are pretty close?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Ivan provorov is a 1d.
Zach werenski was 8oa and he is a 1d
Clayton Keller sure looked like a 1C his rookie year.

The thing is, Cozens and Dach have gotten top 3 pub. Hughes and kakko are 1 and 2. Byram has gotten a bunch of love. And then Turcotte and Podkolzin are usually listed at like 3 or 4

Some more. Mark Scheifele was a 7th I think. There is a decent amount of top 7 picks that go on to fabulous careers. But the point was that we are going to get a very skilled player no matter what.

Ok, I can get on board with that. I'm pretty high on Cozens especially if he can be a C at the NHL. Also a right handed shot which we can definitely use in our top 9.

 

[Hen Kolland]

We are not "guaranteed" a fantastic player. Who is the best 7OA in the past ten years?

Since 2008:
Colin Wilson - Nashville
Nazem Kadri - Toronto
Jeff Skinner - Carolina
Mark Scheifele - Winnipeg
Matt Dumba - Minnesota
Darnell Nurse - Edmonton
Haydn Fleury - Carolina
Ivan Provorov - Philadelphia
Clayton Keller - Arizona
Lias Andersson - New York Rangers
Quinn Hughes - Vancouver

The worst player on that list is also the oldest one on the list in Colin Wilson drafted in 2008. His high water mark was 20 goals and 22 assists in 77 games back in 2014-15. Fleury has yet to play a consistent role on a stacked blue line in Carolina; Lias Andersson has shown promise, and is only 20. Hughes we know a great deal about considering the discussions last year.

There are some absolutely fantastic top line/pair players and potential sitting on that list. I think Scheifele is probably the best of the list, to answer your question.

Edit: Even Edmonton managed to draft a defenseman(!) who has managed to break out this year with 10 goals and 31 assists in 82 games, while playing almost 24 minutes per night.

 

[SCD]

Personally, after the first two selections, I like Turcotte. He seams to be Larkin 2.0.

 

[waltdetroit]

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Personally, after the first two selections, I like Turcotte. He seams to be Larkin 2.0.

He has Larkin's speed and two way abilities? Haven't seen much of him.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I like the fact that Cozens is from the Yukon so he literally had nothing to do all day but play hockey lol.

 

[Larkin2AA]

He has Larkin's speed and two way abilities? Haven't seen much of him.

My comparison would be more of a Zach Parise than Larkin, but I really like this kid as well.

 

[raymond23]

Personally, after the first two selections, I like Turcotte. He seams to be Larkin 2.0.

Can you imagine going up against 2 Larkin's? That would be so f***ing annoying lol

 

[NickH8]

It helps. A lot. Since 2008 every single Cup champion has had at minimum one top 3 pick.

But we aren't guaranteed to suck if we don't get one.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Don't forget that #7 is quite unlikely. There's roughly a 92% chance the Wings draft in the top 6.

Edit: 91.8%

 

[Frk It]

But we aren't guaranteed to suck if we don't get one.

 

[SuperScript29]

Since 2008:
Colin Wilson - Nashville
Nazem Kadri - Toronto
Jeff Skinner - Carolina
Mark Scheifele - Winnipeg
Matt Dumba - Minnesota
Darnell Nurse - Edmonton
Haydn Fleury - Carolina
Ivan Provorov - Philadelphia
Clayton Keller - Arizona
Lias Andersson - New York Rangers
Quinn Hughes - Vancouver

I did something like that in another thread, except I did it for 1st and all the way to the 7th. The odds of a superstar player after the top-3 falls dramatically.

 

[Frk It]

I did something like that in another thread, except I did it for 1st and all the way to the 7th. The odds of a superstar player after the top-3 falls dramatically.