Prospect Info: 2019-2020 Senators Prospects Watch

[mianjo]

Kastelic ended up with 3 assists last night.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Tkachuk - L. Brown - Pinto
Paul - White - C. Brown
Formenton - Norris - Batherson

Boy, that's neat to look at. Even if an entire line doesnt make an impact in the nhl, you still have 2 solid, hard to play against lines, then all the draft picks coming and possibly Duclair, pageau etc. still part of the team.

Objective seems to be, draft hungry forwards that are hard to play against and have some talent.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

That is good to hear. I really like the way he plays; he has a ton on intensity. In looking over his stats he has nearly hit the same goal production from last season in substantially fewer games.
2018-2019 36 GP 10 G 13 A 23 PTS
2019-2020 13 GP 7 G 2 A 9 PTS

Also the highest point producer on his team has 13 points, looking at the NCAA stats there are 50 players with 14 or more points. I would assume that it is rare for teams to not have one or more players in the top 50 in point production. Looking at his team very few of them are putting up many points.
Univ. of New Hampshire at eliteprospects.com

 

[toxic poster]

For ****'s sake ... I said he was similar NOT the same, learn to read. They are about the same size & weight, Pinto looks like a decent skater & has some speed, but of course he isn't as fast as Formenton, I NEVER said he was. He also seems to go to the net like Formenton & if he could play with a little more edge like Formenton Ottawa could have another good top 9 forward. Don't respond to my posts again, if your're going to be ******* about it.

"Pinto looks like another guy with size & speed similar to Formenton"

But I digress.

 

[Xspyrit]

Yikes - you have our highest paid active forward (White) at #8 with 3-4 players below him with more PPG...

wow you seem to have a pretty vicious obsession with White... My post wasn't revolving around him at all.

I have to address your post but hard to know where to begin. Let's just say that I see things in a very different way than "White is listed there so he is #8 and yikes he makes 4.75"

With everything that happened with the Sens since they reached the ECF in 2017, it's impossible to predict what will happen in the near future. All we know for now is that Chabot and White were signed long term and part of the core going forward. There's no guarantee that Duclair will be there long term. Tkachuk should be locked long term and we assume that Brown and Batherson develop into that tier, that's all. White being in the 2nd tier is not an insult at all. The fact that I put him with guys like Norris, Formenton and Balcers (who IMO will all be excellent NHL players) is actually a very good thing

Like I have told you before (will you accuse me to be "condescending" again?), you really should spend some time on CF and do some comparisons. The "middle of the line-up" forwards are paid in today's NHL, it's not 2008 but we're going on 2020. A 4.75 salary is nothing outrageous, it's actually getting closer and closer to the NHL AVERAGE SALARY. Just sort out forwards by 2020-21 cap hits and look who's around Colin White price tag. Christian Dvorak, Alex Killorn. Alex Wennberg, Marcus Johansson, Yanni Gourde, Jakob Silfverberg, Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, Justin Abdelkader, Brandon Sutter, Mathieu Perreault, Nick Bjugstad, Nick Bonino, Victor Rask... solid but unspectacular players

Yes they could have offered a bridge to White and pay him like 3.0 for this year and next but with everything that happened with the organization, they wanted to show that they are locking up their good young players long term. They could have saved a bit in the end but seriously, at some point, this "salary outrage" has to stop, you guys are cheaper than Melnyk himself lol

 

[Sweatred]

White isn’t even playing like a $3 million player. He is playing like a replacement level player below guys like Ennis. You’re entire premise of $3 bridge vs $4+ long term isn't a binary choice for me . There could have been other possibilities.

That aside - I think average is a very simple mechanism to evaluate and pay players. I couldn’t care less what the average is. Players gets elevated and hidden based on their roles and line mates. Alex Chaisson last year in EDM is a great example of a player who benefited from his linemates. It takes a good evaluation to identify the players worth paying cap and term to.

Those averages are also full of Boedker, Smith, Names type contracts.

I would like the Sens to make better player evaluations and limit bad contracts. Ryan and White are the two most expensive forward contracts we have on the roster and neither are providing any value. There is going to be a glut of contracts coming up in a few years.

 

[Masked]

"Pinto looks like another guy with size & speed similar to Formenton"

But I digress.

It's kind of like a ref calling a play dead because he was thinking about blowing his whistle, instead of actually blowing it.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

That's awesome. He always looks great whenever I watch him and I see him having really high upside with his speed, ability to shoot and smarts.

 

[toxic poster]

It's kind of like a ref calling a play dead because he was thinking about blowing his whistle, instead of actually blowing it.

i don't quite understand what you're referring to in this analogy

 

[LeProspector]

Batherson is up to 28pts in 21 games in the AHL and is now the league leader in points.

When does he come back up?

 

[JD1]

Things are really startingvto roll in Belleville.

Admittedly I don't watch the games so i am just scoreboard watching but Batherson is leading the league in scoring, Balcers is tearing it apart, Abramov is putting up better numbers in his second year, and both Norris and Formenton are posting really good rookie seasons.

I think all 5 are with us next season for at least 40 games and we'll see Batherson and Balcers this year for extended stints

Belleville needs to put some points in the bank so that we can afford a let down in February and March assuming there are a few callups. Then we can send them all back, plus Brown, for a playoff run.

 

[Sweatred]

We can still rotate Beaudin and Chaplik down if Balcers and Bath come up assuming no injuries. Less likely to rotate out are Paul and White and maybe vets like Anisimov but their are options.

Anisinov could provide value to the org by driving an offensive line in Belleville for 20 G or so.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

"Pinto looks like another guy with size & speed similar to Formenton"

But I digress.

I think this is just getting lost in translation.

Much like Formenton, Pinto has above average size and speed (you are ‘fast’ it the average player is slower than you, for example). Formenton might be in the top 10th percentile for speed whereas Pinto is in the top 30th percentile, whereas Formentons size is probably top 35th percentile and Pintos is top 20%. They are both big and fast. I think that is the point he was going for.

 

[aragorn]

Balcers? Abramov? Chlapik? Gruden? Crookshank? Davidsson?

If you have Connor Brown in there, Duclair should also be listed...

This is how I rank them in order of importance and potential impact. I'll rank them by tiers :

Tkachuk/L. Brown/Batherson/Duclair
Norris/Formenton/Balcers/White
C. Brown/Paul/Abramov/Chlapik

So that's 12 forwards (could be even more if you add Pageau and Namestnikov) and then there's those for who it remains to be seen :

Pinto/Davidsson/Gruden/Crookshank/Novak/Kastelic

Major log jam coming up. We are almost guaranteed to develop a "solid" forward group but need at least 1 guy in a tier above Tkachuk & co; a true elite forward...

You're right, Ottawa does have some other prospects who probably deserve to be there as well, but there are only 12 forward positions, although we all know they can go through more than 15 in any given season. Here's who I would list as the 12 forwards on MY team from the prospects they have & given that a couple of them will likely be replaced due to better prospects that will be drafted (Byfield) over the next few yrs.

Byfield - L. Brown - Batherson
Tkachuk - White - C. Brown
Formenton - Norris - Pinto
Paul - Chlapik - Kastelic/Gruden

Did I forget anyone again?

 

[DrEasy]

I think this is just getting lost in translation.

Much like Formenton, Pinto has above average size and speed (you are ‘fast’ it the average player is slower than you, for example). Formenton might be in the top 10th percentile for speed whereas Pinto is in the top 30th percentile, whereas Formentons size is probably top 35th percentile and Pintos is top 20%. They are both big and fast. I think that is the point he was going for.

"Pinto looks like another guy with size & speed, similar to Formenton"

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Pointless exercise I did for fun:

Prospect full season paces & comparable

Brady Tkachuk (20)

• Full season (82 game) pace: 27g 17a 44pt pace
• Comparables
  • Patrik Laine
  • Evander Kane
  • Nathan Mackinnon
  • Brayden Point
  • Travis Konecny
  • Dylan Larkin
  • Brandon Sutter
  • Mikko Rantanen
  • Sam Reinhart
  • Anthony Beauvillier
  • Jamie Benn

I tried to give the full gauntlet of comparisons. Basically, I stuck to guys on pace for no more than 50 pts and no less than 20 goals in their last season before turning 21. These are all the guys who fit the profile. Other than Sutter and Beauvillier, they are/were all legit 1st line forwards.

Alex Formenton (20)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 34g 19a 53pts
• Comparables:
  • Kyle Palmieri
  • Nino Niederreiter
  • Lucas Lessio
  • Adam Henrique
  • Ty Rattie

Plenty of comparables on this one, I felt like these guys were the closest. I just eyeballed so I’m sure I am missing some. I tried to go with a mix of players.

Drake Batherson (21)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 32g 69a 101pts
• Comparables
  • Frank Vatrano
  • Ryan Strome
  • Logan Couture
  • Andrew Magniapane
  • Kyle Palmieri

Not many comparables; its rare that a guy is in their 21 yr old season and they produce like Batherson without being called up pretty quickly. Amongst U22 players with more than 11 games played, Batherson is 3rd in pts/game since 2009-2010, behind Vatrano (1.53 in 36gp) and Kucherov (1.41 in 17gp). Batherson is currently at 1.33pts/game in 21 gp. Not a good comparable style-wise, but I think Batherson has the ability to produce a similar amount as Palmieri.

Josh Norris (20)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 32.5g 32.5a 65pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Tyler Ennis
  • Brett Connolly
  • Kyle Turris
  • Connor Brown
  • Tomas Tatar

Interesting note: every player on this list has scored 20 goals in one season in the NHL. Turris is the only other C on the list. I think a nice projection for Norris would be a mix of many of these players; Browns motor/grit, Ennis' speed, Turris' IQ, Connolly's size, and Tatars playmaking. Essentially, I think he has the ability to be a ~50 pt guy who is worth more than what he shows on the score-sheet.

Vitaly Abramov (21)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 34g 38a 72pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Tyler Johnson
  • Jason Zucker
  • Nikolay Goldobin
  • Alex Barre-Boulet
  • Ondrej Palat
  • Nazem Kadri
  • JG Pageau

Other notable players in the .9 to 1.0 pt/game range as U22 players:

Spooner, J. Vrana, M. Boedker, M. Granlund, M. Reinhart, Sammy Blais, B. Marchand, Z. Dalpe, R. Faksa, D. Jeffrey, J. Weal, J. Kyrou, A. Lotkionov, Pirri, Rajala

So, not a “perfect” list but about half of the guys are/were legit NHLers

Rudolfs Balcers (22)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 29a 76a 115 pace
• Comparables:
  • Jordan Eberle
  • Yakov Trenin
  • Seth Griffith
  • Teemu Pulkkinen
  • Jake Guentzel

Short sample size (only 8 games) so I went with guys up to .25ppg lower. Still not many options.

Lassi Thomson (19)

• Full season (60 game) pace: 13g 13a 26pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Olli Juolevi
  • Ville Pokka
  • Aleksi Laakso
  • Sami Vatanen
  • Oskari Laaksonen

Very few comparables. Heiskanen, who scored at a 46 pt pace, is the one outlier of the past 10 yrs. Not many players play significant roles in Liiga at such a young age, but it’s not necessarily a predictor of future success. Playing in Liiga as a teen DMan has become much more common in the last 3-4 yrs.

Shane Pinto (19)

• Full season (36 game) pace: 14g 12a 26pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Adam Gaudette
  • Ryan Dzingel
  • Louis Leblanc
  • Jack Roslovic
  • Logan Hutsko
  • Ryan Fitzgerald

Jacob Bernard-Docker (19)

• Full season (36 game) pace: 8g 26a 34pt pace
• Comparables
  • Brian Dumoulin
  • Gavin Bayreuther
  • Reilly Walsh
  • Jake Walman
  • Scott Perunovich
  • Adam Clendening
  • Joey LaLeggia

Not many players have scored as much as JBD in their 19/20 yr old season; most of them have been undersized offensive DMen. I think the closest comparable is Brian Dumoulin, who is probably a good comparable for what we hope JBD becomes.

Jonathan Gruden (19)

• Full season (68 game) pace: 30g 56a 86pt pace
• Comparables
  • Marcus Foligno
  • Anthony Cirelli
  • Adam Mascherin
  • Michael Latta
  • Carter Verhaeghe

Jakov Novak (21)

• Full season (36 game) pace: 23g 18a 41pt pace
• Comparables
  • Cole Schneider
  • Sheldon Rempal
  • Erik Haula
  • Cory Conacher

 

[OD99]

Pointless exercise I did for fun:

Prospect full season paces & comparable

Brady Tkachuk (20)

• Full season (82 game) pace: 27g 17a 44pt pace
• Comparables
  • Patrik Laine
  • Evander Kane
  • Nathan Mackinnon
  • Brayden Point
  • Travis Konecny
  • Dylan Larkin
  • Brandon Sutter
  • Mikko Rantanen
  • Sam Reinhart
  • Anthony Beauvillier
  • Jamie Benn

I tried to give the full gauntlet of comparisons. Basically, I stuck to guys on pace for no more than 50 pts and no less than 20 goals in their last season before turning 21. These are all the guys who fit the profile. Other than Sutter and Beauvillier, they are/were all legit 1st line forwards.

Alex Formenton (20)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 34g 19a 53pts
• Comparables:
  • Kyle Palmieri
  • Nino Niederreiter
  • Lucas Lessio
  • Adam Henrique
  • Ty Rattie

Plenty of comparables on this one, I felt like these guys were the closest. I just eyeballed so I’m sure I am missing some. I tried to go with a mix of players.

Drake Batherson (21)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 32g 69a 101pts
• Comparables
  • Frank Vatrano
  • Ryan Strome
  • Logan Couture
  • Andrew Magniapane
  • Kyle Palmieri

Not many comparables; its rare that a guy is in their 21 yr old season and they produce like Batherson without being called up pretty quickly. Amongst U22 players with more than 11 games played, Batherson is 3rd in pts/game since 2009-2010, behind Vatrano (1.53 in 36gp) and Kucherov (1.41 in 17gp). Batherson is currently at 1.33pts/game in 21 gp. Not a good comparable style-wise, but I think Batherson has the ability to produce a similar amount as Palmieri.

Josh Norris (20)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 32.5g 32.5a 65pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Tyler Ennis
  • Brett Connolly
  • Kyle Turris
  • Connor Brown
  • Tomas Tatar

Interesting note: every player on this list has scored 20 goals in one season in the NHL. Turris is the only other C on the list. I think a nice projection for Norris would be a mix of many of these players; Browns motor/grit, Ennis' speed, Turris' IQ, Connolly's size, and Tatars playmaking. Essentially, I think he has the ability to be a ~50 pt guy who is worth more than what he shows on the score-sheet.

Vitaly Abramov (21)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 34g 38a 72pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Tyler Johnson
  • Jason Zucker
  • Nikolay Goldobin
  • Alex Barre-Boulet
  • Ondrej Palat
  • Nazem Kadri
  • JG Pageau

Other notable players in the .9 to 1.0 pt/game range as U22 players:

Spooner, J. Vrana, M. Boedker, M. Granlund, M. Reinhart, Sammy Blais, B. Marchand, Z. Dalpe, R. Faksa, D. Jeffrey, J. Weal, J. Kyrou, A. Lotkionov, Pirri, Rajala

So, not a “perfect” list but about half of the guys are/were legit NHLers

Rudolfs Balcers (22)

• Full season (76 game) pace: 29a 76a 115 pace
• Comparables:
  • Jordan Eberle
  • Yakov Trenin
  • Seth Griffith
  • Teemu Pulkkinen
  • Jake Guentzel

Short sample size (only 8 games) so I went with guys up to .25ppg lower. Still not many options.

Lassi Thomson (19)

• Full season (60 game) pace: 13g 13a 26pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Olli Juolevi
  • Ville Pokka
  • Aleksi Laakso
  • Sami Vatanen
  • Oskari Laaksonen

Very few comparables. Heiskanen, who scored at a 46 pt pace, is the one outlier of the past 10 yrs. Not many players play significant roles in Liiga at such a young age, but it’s not necessarily a predictor of future success. Playing in Liiga as a teen DMan has become much more common in the last 3-4 yrs.

Shane Pinto (19)

• Full season (36 game) pace: 14g 12a 26pt pace
• Comparables:
  • Adam Gaudette
  • Ryan Dzingel
  • Louis Leblanc
  • Jack Roslovic
  • Logan Hutsko
  • Ryan Fitzgerald

Jacob Bernard-Docker (19)

• Full season (36 game) pace: 8g 26a 34pt pace
• Comparables
  • Brian Dumoulin
  • Gavin Bayreuther
  • Reilly Walsh
  • Jake Walman
  • Scott Perunovich
  • Adam Clendening
  • Joey LaLeggia

Not many players have scored as much as JBD in their 19/20 yr old season; most of them have been undersized offensive DMen. I think the closest comparable is Brian Dumoulin, who is probably a good comparable for what we hope JBD becomes.

Jonathan Gruden (19)

• Full season (68 game) pace: 30g 56a 86pt pace
• Comparables
  • Marcus Foligno
  • Anthony Cirelli
  • Adam Mascherin
  • Michael Latta
  • Carter Verhaeghe

Jakov Novak (21)

• Full season (36 game) pace: 23g 18a 41pt pace
• Comparables
  • Cole Schneider
  • Sheldon Rempal
  • Erik Haula
  • Cory Conacher

Very cool to see this. Thanks for taking the time and sharing.

A little sobering to be honest and understand most young players doing so well dont play a full AHL season but hopefully a few of our guys have a higher ceiling than comparables.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Batherson is up to 28pts in 21 games in the AHL and is now the league leader in points.

When does he come back up?

Lol, chill bro. Absolutely nothing wrong with letting him dominate the entire year there/bringing him up in last quarter of the season.

I've never seen it be a detriment to the player - quite the opposite.

Let him dominate then bring him up next year with Laferniere/Byfield and watch the fireworks fly.

 

[toxic poster]

Lol, chill bro. Absolutely nothing wrong with letting him dominate the entire year there/bringing him up in last quarter of the season.

I've never seen it be a detriment to the player - quite the opposite.

Let him dominate then bring him up next year with Laferniere/Byfield and watch the fireworks fly.

He'll be here after the TDL at the very earliest unless there's injuries. Management is content keeping him in Belleville for the time being. Too many NHL rostered fwds to begin with.

I see the strategy they're going for with prospect integration. Can't bring them all in at the exact same time, you gotta layer them basically is their philosophy. Commit to guys like Chlapik, Brown, Brannstrom being around full-time - insulating them with vets or sheltering their minutes to some extent so they get their feet wet, feel confident in being an nhler. Then bring in the next group - I'm sure we will see Formenton/Norris/Batherson/Abramov up at different tiems playing similar roles. Some maybe not but the general idea stays the same.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

not surprising


IMO Rees should have been invited

 

[bert]

Things are really startingvto roll in Belleville.

Admittedly I don't watch the games so i am just scoreboard watching but Batherson is leading the league in scoring, Balcers is tearing it apart, Abramov is putting up better numbers in his second year, and both Norris and Formenton are posting really good rookie seasons.

I think all 5 are with us next season for at least 40 games and we'll see Batherson and Balcers this year for extended stints

Belleville needs to put some points in the bank so that we can afford a let down in February and March assuming there are a few callups. Then we can send them all back, plus Brown, for a playoff run.

Bingo, great point. Good post overall, if the sens are healthy id even consider sending Brown back down to help until the trades start happening.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I don't speak Finnish

Nice shot but seems a long way out to beat the goalie on that shot from there to me