2019-2020 Around the League Thread - Part III

[schelstatic]

No need to give up prospects for a winger when you're getting Hall in free agency.

But we will still need more high end wingers when we trade Rantanen for Eichel.

 

[Ararana]

I highly doubt that the Connor rumors were coming from the Avs side. Joe said himself that if you want a defenseman like Byram you have to draft him and it sounded like he learned that the hard way. Remember that he tried to get Chabot in a Duchene deal then later McAvoy then Carlo...he finally lucked out on Girard but G wasn't the same level of prospect as Byram.

All those rumors did come from a Winnipeg news outlet. If you're trading Byram you're doing it for a guy like Connor, but I'll be pretty surprised if Sakic pulled that trigger not even a year after finally putting together a very promising defensive core.

 

[Balthazar]

All those rumors did come from a Winnipeg news outlet. If you're trading Byram you're doing it for a guy like Connor, but I'll be pretty surprised if Sakic pulled that trigger not even a year after finally putting together a very promising defensive core.

Don't see Joe trading Byram for a winger. If we need another top 6 wing he'll try to find another Burakovsky type of player or get one on the UFA market.

 

[Ararana]

Don't see Joe trading Byram for a winger. If we need another top 6 wing he'll try to find another Burakovsky type of player or get one on the UFA market.

I don't either honestly. Byram's position is way too valuable and I say it over and over again but I really don't want to be the Toronto of the Western conference. Keep the defenseman we have please.

I wouldn't be surprised if they swing and miss on Hall and that's pretty much it as far as it goes for top six forwards going into next season.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Don't see Joe trading Byram for a winger. If we need another top 6 wing he'll try to find another Burakovsky type of player or get one on the UFA market.

Exactly. No point of trading defenseman. Those are almost impossible to acquire.

 

[Avs_19]

I don't see Byram going anywhere but maybe they could get aggressive with Newhook, Timmins, picks, etc if they fall short this year. If they win it all then they might just chill and hold onto the cheap young assets. I'm sure they'd still try to improve the team and maybe target someone like Hall but there'd be less urgency.

 

[Balthazar]

I don't see Byram going anywhere but maybe they could get aggressive with Newhook, Timmins, picks, etc if they fall short this year. If they win it all then they might just chill and hold onto the cheap young assets. I'm sure they'd still try to improve the team and maybe target someone like Hall but there'd be less urgency.

Newhook is getting groomed to replace Kadri in 2 years. Timmins if he's going to be an NHLer we sure need him on the right side.

There are other ways to upgrade the top 6 without trading these players.

 

[henchman21]

Newhook is getting groomed to replace Kadri in 2 years. Timmins if he's going to be an NHLer we sure need him on the right side.

There are other ways to upgrade the top 6 without trading these players.

Every upgrade is a pro and con.... the Avs can just sign Hall and keep all those players, but be locked into Hall for 6-7 years at 10+m per. Or they can set their sights lower at say a Toffoli pay the same AAV as Nylander/Connor, but have a less effective player. Or trade future assets for current assets that are closer to 'bargain' contracts.

 

[Balthazar]

Every upgrade is a pro and con.... the Avs can just sign Hall and keep all those players, but be locked into Hall for 6-7 years at 10+m per. Or they can set their sights lower at say a Toffoli pay the same AAV as Nylander/Connor, but have a less effective player. Or trade future assets for current assets that are closer to 'bargain' contracts.

Hart trophy or not, I'm having a real hard time to see Hall getting 6-7 years at 10M+. Panarin just signed for 11.5M and he's younger, better and has far fewer red flags surrounding him. We'll see.

 

[henchman21]

Hart trophy or not, I'm having a real hard time to see Hall getting 6-7 years at 10M+. Panarin just signed for 11.5M and he's younger, better and has far fewer red flags surrounding him. We'll see.

Does a discount to 9.5m really change anything? It is probably his last chance to get paid, and he's going to use it. If you want a Nylander/Connor level winger as a UFA, you have to go after Hall... which means a majorly bloated contract. If you don't want that bloated contract, you have to trade and give up prime assets. If you don't want to give up prime assets/bloated contract, you have to accept lesser players. There is (sadly) no free beer.

(and Hall is one month younger than Bread)

 

[Balthazar]

Does a discount to 9.5m really change anything? It is probably his last chance to get paid, and he's going to use it. If you want a Nylander/Connor level winger as a UFA, you have to go after Hall... which means a majorly bloated contract. If you don't want that bloated contract, you have to trade and give up prime assets. If you don't want to give up prime assets/bloated contract, you have to accept lesser players. There is (sadly) no free beer.

(and Hall is one month younger than Bread)

One month younger but will sign his contract a year later.

If Hall is only getting offered something in the ~9M range for 6 years on the free market, we could possibly get him to accept a 12M X 3 type of contract (and it sounds like Sakic was willing to do that with Panarin).

 

[henchman21]

One month younger but will sign his contract a year later.

If Hall is only getting offered something in the ~9M range for 6 years on the free market, we could possibly get him to accept a 12M X 3 type of contract (and it sounds like Sakic was willing to do that with Panarin).

Say Hall is willing to sign for $12m for 3 years. That puts the Avs at 71m (not including bonuses that could roll over) with 15 players signed next season. At a flat cap, have to re-sign Graves, Nuke and Burkie... who probably take up at least 10m between them. Welp... still need 4-5 more bodies to form the team... and then the next season when Makar and Landy's raises come into play. Any player at even ~8.5m starts creating a problem real quick. Not only for next season, but 21-22 for sure.

 

[Richard88]

Say Hall is willing to sign for $12m for 3 years. That puts the Avs at 71m (not including bonuses that could roll over) with 15 players signed next season. At a flat cap, have to re-sign Graves, Nuke and Burkie... who probably take up at least 10m between them. Welp... still need 4-5 more bodies to form the team... and then the next season when Makar and Landy's raises come into play. Any player at even ~8.5m starts creating a problem real quick. Not only for next season, but 21-22 for sure.

A $8.5m+ contract is probably workable from 2021-2023 but would require moving some mid-level contracts like Donskoi/Compher, and scraping the barrel for cheap replacements for Calvert/Cole/Bellemare. Moving Johnson would be the easiest way to open capspace, but that's realistically not going to happen.

 

[Balthazar]

Say Hall is willing to sign for $12m for 3 years. That puts the Avs at 71m (not including bonuses that could roll over) with 15 players signed next season. At a flat cap, have to re-sign Graves, Nuke and Burkie... who probably take up at least 10m between them. Welp... still need 4-5 more bodies to form the team... and then the next season when Makar and Landy's raises come into play. Any player at even ~8.5m starts creating a problem real quick. Not only for next season, but 21-22 for sure.

That's based on the assumption that Sakic offered 4 X 12M to Panarin last summer. Offering 3 X 12M to Hall a year later is virtually the same commitment.

 

[Avs91]

A $8.5m+ contract is probably workable from 2021-2023 but would require moving some mid-level contracts like Donskoi/Compher, and scraping the barrel for cheap replacements for Calvert/Cole/Bellemare. Moving Johnson would be the easiest way to open capspace, but that's realistically not going to happen.

Agree. Weaponizing available cap is great... Sakic has shown he can do that, if you know the cap is going up and you can still fit guys in. The reality with all this going on is the cap is going to stay pretty flat for the next couple years.

So the Avs have it pretty good right now because we’re not handcuffed by relying on that cap increase. We can inject a couple ELCs and dump some salary, and still fit in Makar, Gabe, Girard’s raise next year and probably be fine. But I doubt we’re dishing out any long term 8+ mil contracts unless it’s for 1-2 years max, maybe even take a contract at the TDL next year for cheap as a rental. In that sense, it might be a good thing we didn’t get Bread for 12.5x4.

Just my two cents.

 

[Foppa2118]

One month younger but will sign his contract a year later.

If Hall is only getting offered something in the ~9M range for 6 years on the free market, we could possibly get him to accept a 12M X 3 type of contract (and it sounds like Sakic was willing to do that with Panarin).

The big money short term deal, is the only one I've ever thought Sakic would sign Hall to. The question is does Hall want to sign that kind of deal to go Cup hunting.

I think Joe's original plan was to go big game hunting for that final piece like PL would, but with the Avs success this year without a Hall/Panarin, I think there's a chance that might have changed. The rumors made it sound like they were never that aggressive going after Hall in trade.

That may change as an asset free UFA, but I don't think the Avs are nearly as high on Hall as they were Panarin. Panarin was a great stylistic fit for either Kadri or MacKinnon's wing. Hall is a pretty big question mark for both, and has a history of chemistry issues similar to Duchene. Not to mention his injury history that the Avs may be a little gun shy with after Varly and EJ.

Like @Avs_19 said, if they win the Cup this year, they may very well just chill. But if they don't, especially if they get knocked out early in the playoffs, their reluctance to move Newhook or Timmins might dissipate, and their desire for that big final piece may increase again.

 

[Richard88]

That's based on the assumption that Sakic offered 4 X 12M to Panarin last summer. Offering 3 X 12M to Hall a year later is virtually the same commitment.

Agree. Weaponizing available cap is great... Sakic has shown he can do that, if you know the cap is going up and you can still fit guys in. The reality with all this going on is the cap is going to stay pretty flat for the next couple years.

So the Avs have it pretty good right now because we’re not handcuffed by relying on that cap increase. We can inject a couple ELCs and dump some salary, and still fit in Makar, Gabe, Girard’s raise next year and probably be fine. But I doubt we’re dishing out any long term 8+ mil contracts unless it’s for 1-2 years max, maybe even take a contract at the TDL next year for cheap as a rental. In that sense, it might be a good thing we didn’t get Bread for 12.5x4.

Just my two cents.

I don't think it will happen, but we actually can theoretically sign Hall to $12m x 3 years and still have a pretty solid team without gutting the roster too much.

In 2021 we'd be relying on a slight bump in the cap ceiling in order to keep Burakovsky/Johnson (a risky strategy, but isn't impossible due to the new TV deal and Seattle Expansion).

Trades for reference:

The D for 2020/21 would be a bit green due to needing to move Cole's $4.25m caphit, but with an extra $2.2m capspace we could pick up a ~$3m rental bottom pair Dman if needed.

It would also be a bit of a gamble with Newhook jumping straight into 2C duties right off the bat, but maybe he can pull a Makar and make Kadri expendable (as happened with Barrie).

 

[Richard88]

The big money short term deal, is the only one I've ever thought Sakic would sign Hall to. The question is does Hall want to sign that kind of deal to go Cup hunting.

I think Joe's original plan was to go big game hunting for that final piece like PL would, but with the Avs success this year without a Hall/Panarin, I think there's a chance that might have changed. The rumors made it sound like they were never that aggressive going after Hall in trade.

That may change as an asset free UFA, but I don't think the Avs are nearly as high on Hall as they were Panarin. Panarin was a great stylistic fit for either Kadri or MacKinnon's wing. Hall is a pretty big question mark for both, and has a history of chemistry issues similar to Duchene. Not to mention his injury history that the Avs may be a little gun shy with after Varly and EJ.

Like @Avs_19 said, if they win the Cup this year, they may very well just chill. But if they don't, especially if they get knocked out early in the playoffs, their reluctance to move Newhook or Timmins might dissipate, and their desire for that big final piece may increase again.

I agree. Hall has only 3 seasons over 55 points in 10 years due to injuries, and I don't think that's a return that will have Sakic desperate to throw money at him.

If we were to sign Hall though maybe Sakic would be willing to give up a 4th or 5th year of term to keep the AAV down to something closer to $9-10m, while also front-loading the contract and avoid any NMC in the last 2 years to make him more moveable in 2023 if needed. Still quite risky though as there's no guarantee that you can move him if he falls off a cliff.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'm quite intrigued to see how the Hall sweepstakes play out this summer tbh.


There's a tonne of different factors that will impact the deal he ultimately gets. Global Pandemic causing a flat or potentially declining cap, the fact Hall has had back to back "bad" seasons, injury concerns surrounding Hall, and the fact so few contending teams have any cap space at all right now.



Basically, my guess is Hall will have 1 of 2 choices to make. If he wants to win a cup and was serious with his comments all year about really wanting to play meaningful hockey in April, May, and June months... Then he's almost definitely going to have to take a discount and likely a fairly decent one at that. As the cup contending, playoff regular teams in the league right now almost all have very little cap space to go around this summer. And the select few teams that dont(Colorado is almost the only team in this category) have proven to be pretty stingy with its cap space. Combined with Hall having a couple down seasons in a row now only makes it more tricky to shell out money for him.


But on the flip side, some desperate teams on the outside looking in of the playoff picture the last few years, you may very well see a couple of those teams make all in plays and cough up serious money to try and get Hall to push them into the playoff picture. I look at Buffalo, Montreal, and maybe Arizona themselves as those teams that really pay through the nose for him.


The way I see it, Hall will either end up signing a big contract with a bottom feeder team desperate to move up, probably in the neighborhood of ~10M AAV for 6-7 years. I really think Buffalo will be players in this regard and will make cap space to sign him if Hall shows interest. The other way he goes, is if he is truly serious about winning a cup, he'll take a fairly significant paycut to play for a team like Colorado, or Edmonton, or Calgary that's actually a decent playoff team. He'll sign in the neighborhood of ~8-9M with those teams.


Gonna be real interesting. This summer in general is going to be extremely interesting. The cap situation will have huge impacts on how everything plays out... But it could be a really busy summer with different teams having different agendas and the main topic being cap space.

 

[Balthazar]

If we were to sign Hall though maybe Sakic would be willing to give up a 4th or 5th year of term to keep the AAV down to something closer to $9-10m, while also front-loading the contract and avoid any NMC in the last 2 years to make him more moveable in 2023 if needed. Still quite risky though as there's no guarantee that you can move him if he falls off a cliff.

No the whole point of signing Hall to 3 years is to have him off the hook for Mack's next contract.

The other way he goes, is if he is truly serious about winning a cup, he'll take a fairly significant paycut to play for a team like Colorado, or Edmonton, or Calgary that's actually a decent playoff team. He'll sign in the neighborhood of ~8-9M with those teams..

Avs can't sign him for anything more than 3 years, even at 8M. Only realistic scenario is overpaying for a short contract. Usually I'd never believe in this but we have exceptional circumstances here with Hall's value being low and the Panarin offer precedent.

 

[Richard88]

No the whole point of signing Hall to 3 years is to have him off the hook for Mack's next contract.



Avs can't sign him for anything more than 3 years, even at 8M. Only realistic scenario is overpaying for a short contract. Usually I'd never believe in this but we have exceptional circumstances here with Hall's value being low and the Panarin offer precedent.

There would certainly be worse ways to build your value up than by playing 1-3 seasons on a contender riding shotgun with Mackinnon. If (big if) he can stay healthy Hall could put up 100 points on a line with Mackinnon and Rantanen, and if he followed that with a good postseason performance he could go back on UFA and get some serious dollars and term.

 

[McMetal]

I must be the only one who still doesn't want to touch Hall. He's hurt all the time, has aged out of his prime producing years, and he's been on so many losing clubs he makes Matt Duchene look like Justin Williams. Let some other team be the next sucker to buy his agent a boat.

 

[Richard88]

I must be the only one who still doesn't want to touch Hall. He's hurt all the time, has aged out of his prime producing years, and he's been on so many losing clubs he makes Matt Duchene look like Justin Williams. Let some other team be the next sucker to buy his agent a boat.

Though I posted the speculative rosters above I tend to agree with you.

Although his career average is 70 points per 82 games, in his 10 year NHL career he's actually only hit more than 55 points in a single season 3 times, and only exceeded 27 goals once. Needless to say I think there are probably better ways to spend capspace than that.

That said, if the AAV and term is very favourable then I may be willing to consider it, but realistically I'd expect him and his agent to want to take the biggest possible payday since they're going to be more aware than anyone how fragile Hall's health is and will want to cash in while they can.

 

[McMetal]

I

Though I posted the speculative rosters above I tend to agree with you.

Although his career average is 70 points per 82 games, in his 10 year NHL career he's actually only hit more than 55 points in a single season 3 times, and only exceeded 27 goals once. Needless to say I think there are probably better ways to spend capspace than that.

That said, if the AAV and term is very favourable then I may be willing to consider it, but realistically I'd expect him and his agent to want to take the biggest possible payday since they're going to be more aware than anyone how fragile Hall's health is and will want to cash in while they can.

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I think he's just an overrated hockey player in general. He's a physical freak, but MacKinnon has more competitive drive in his little finger than Hall has in his whole body. Do you really think it's a coincidence that New Jersey started winning more games after he was traded? Their roster on paper even without Hall is way, way better than their record through December would suggest.

Just because we have cap space doesn't mean we NEED to spend it just because. Panarin was worth that kind of investment. Hall isn't.

 

[Balthazar]

I must be the only one who still doesn't want to touch Hall. He's hurt all the time, has aged out of his prime producing years, and he's been on so many losing clubs he makes Matt Duchene look like Justin Williams. Let some other team be the next sucker to buy his agent a boat.

I think he'd give us a very significant boost for the first half of our cup window. If we can't sign him for 3 years or less I'd pass.

The goal is trying to upgrade our top 6 without destroying the 2nd half of our window by trading Byram and Newhook.