2019/2020 Advanced Stats / Analytics Tracker

[Chainshot]

Maybe this whole idea of Larry as Jeff's "dzone wingman" actually is born out in the numbers? No?

 

[Fezzy126]

Maybe this whole idea of Larry as Jeff's "dzone wingman" actually is born out in the numbers? No?

I actually wanted to see a line of Olofsson-Larsson-Johansson since the preseason. Not only do they seem to mesh from a complimentary skillset point of view (i.e. shooter+transition player+defensive acumen & grit), but I figured since they were all Swedish that would add another layer of chemistry.

 

[Chainshot]

I actually wanted to see a line of Olofsson-Larsson-Johansson since the preseason. Not only do they seem to mesh from a complimentary skillset point of view (i.e. shooter+transition player+defensive acumen & grit), but I figured since they were all Swedish that would add another layer of chemistry.

Sure. Try something. Two points, one is that Larry has one line that is in the "good" area without as many minutes, and has LOG in the other doing "dull" work of not getting many and not giving up many. So I would say again, why isn't he being re-signed now?

 

[jc17]

Speaking of lines/combos that dont work:

 

[Fezzy126]

Sure. Try something. Two points, one is that Larry has one line that is in the "good" area without as many minutes, and has LOG in the other doing "dull" work of not getting many and not giving up many. So I would say again, why isn't he being re-signed now?

Because he's smart

 

[Jim Bob]

Speaking of lines/combos that dont work:

View attachment 314515

If they had a real 2C next year, they could try VO-Eichel-MoJo & Skinner-[Mythical 2C]-Reinhart...

 

[jc17]

If they had a real 2C next year, they could try VO-Eichel-MoJo & Skinner-[Mythical 2C]-Reinhart...

I always get carried away with the line tool, so now that I'm playing with it this is what I got without the mythical 2C or chaning the top line.

We know skinner and mojo is a no-go.

Mitts is in there because he dragged everyone down, especially Vesey. On their own Vesey and Sheary look better, no surprise. Vesey/Mojo looks serviceable but small sample size. Add Skinner, thats line 2.

Break up log, because if Sheary and Erod can function together, Larry cant hurt:

Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart
Skinner-Mojo-Vesey
Sheary-Larry-Erod
Frolik-Girgs-Okposo

Just bury the 4th line instead of relying on them.

I would take 1 line that gets out chanced, but scores more because of skill, 2 lines that function above 53 CF% and 1 line that either LOGS it up, or gets 5 mins of ice time because they cant.

There'd be much more flexibility if Olofsson showed the ability to play away from 9 and 23 but he hasnt

 

[Jim Bob]

I always get carried away with the line tool, so now that I'm playing with it this is what I got without the mythical 2C or chaning the top line.

We know skinner and mojo is a no-go.

View attachment 314531
Mitts is in there because he dragged everyone down, especially Vesey. On their own Vesey and Sheary look better, no surprise. Vesey/Mojo looks serviceable but small sample size. Add Skinner, thats line 2.

View attachment 314533

Break up log, because if Sheary and Erod can function together, Larry cant hurt:
View attachment 314537

Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart
Skinner-Mojo-Vesey
Sheary-Larry-Erod
Frolik-Girgs-Okposo

Just bury the 4th line instead of relying on them.

I would take 1 line that gets out chanced, but scores more because of skill, 2 lines that function above 53 CF% and 1 line that either LOGS it up, or gets 5 mins of ice time because they cant.

There'd be much more flexibility if Olofsson showed the ability to play away from 9 and 23 but he hasnt

The other option is go back to 53-9-23 and put VO with MoJo and Vesey.

 

[jc17]

At this point anything is worth trying.

That said, I feel like the difference in Skinner and Olofsson is still substantial enough where Skinner could help Vesey and Mojo be functional, whereas VO with those 2 would give us their worse versions of themselves

 

[KeyserSoze81]

At this point anything is worth trying.

That said, I feel like the difference in Skinner and Olofsson is still substantial enough where Skinner could help Vesey and Mojo be functional, whereas VO with those 2 would give us their worse versions of themselves

They...they have worse versions of themselves?

 

[jc17]

NHL Player Ratings, NHL Player Rankings

Anyone know the difference between the rating and ranking in Manny's model?

 

[Chainshot]

NHL Player Ratings, NHL Player Rankings

Anyone know the difference between the rating and ranking in Manny's model?

Good question. I've seen his assembly page for the rating computation here - NHL Player Ratings Explained - Corsica Hockey but it doesn't include the ranking justification. Not sure really.

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Fezzy126]

Really enjoyed catching up on twitter today and reading the (one-sided) debate about how forwards are more impactful than defensemen, and the analytic models backing up this assertion. Of course it's a conclusion that many in the hockey community came to quite a while ago, and was painfully obvious with the success of teams like Pittsburgh and Vegas who specifically asked their defenseman to just sit back and bang the puck out of their own zone while sending 3-4 waves of solid forward lines to wreak havok in the neutral zone and on the forecheck.

 

[Sabreality]

Really enjoyed catching up on twitter today and reading the (one-sided) debate about how forwards are more impactful than defensemen, and the analytic models backing up this assertion. Of course it's a conclusion that many in the hockey community came to quite a while ago, and was painfully obvious with the success of teams like Pittsburgh and Vegas who specifically asked their defenseman to just sit back and bang the puck out of their own zone while sending 3-4 waves of solid forward lines to wreak havok in the neutral zone and on the forecheck.

yep, hail mary hockey works if you have the F waves to sustain it all game. Get puck out as fast as you can by any means necessary and win the races. Not whatever the hell McCabe & Co try to do back there.

 

[toomuchsauce]

yep, hail mary hockey works if you have the F waves to sustain it all game. Get puck out as fast as you can by any means necessary and win the races. Not whatever the hell McCabe & Co try to do back there.

regroup, regroup, regroup, regroup, regroup, regroup, regroup, regroup, d-to-d at the hash marks, turn to the boards to absorb contact, d-to-d behind the net, panic, absorb contact, try to hold it along the boards, panic, turnover, panic, goal

 

[Aladyyn]

Really enjoyed catching up on twitter today and reading the (one-sided) debate about how forwards are more impactful than defensemen, and the analytic models backing up this assertion. Of course it's a conclusion that many in the hockey community came to quite a while ago, and was painfully obvious with the success of teams like Pittsburgh and Vegas who specifically asked their defenseman to just sit back and bang the puck out of their own zone while sending 3-4 waves of solid forward lines to wreak havok in the neutral zone and on the forecheck.

People say Murray fell behind the trends, but he was actually ahead of his time!

 

[Jim Bob]

Analyzing the best and worst linemate situations in the NHL - TSN.ca

This was interesting.

If Botts could get someone on that list...

 

[Fezzy126]

One would think that after a long and intelligent discussion about forward vs defensemen on-ice impacts, that when looking at Pilut this season they wouldn't just devolve into teammate impacts with Ristolainen. But baby steps I guess, right?

Maybe if they dug a bit deeper they'd see

• Any Sabres defensemen with Eichel line in a defensively deployed role - hopefully break even
• Any Sabres defensemen with Eichel line in an offensively deployed role - Good!
• Any Sabres defensemen with a non-Eichel line in a defensively deployed role - completely caved in
• Any Sabres defensemen with a non-Eichel line in an offensively role - hopefully break even

So on the forward side, the exception here is probably Larsson, but LOG doesn't score enough to offset any mistakes they make. They certainly don't make up for any of the other lines gaffes.

Lastly,

• Jokiharju with anyone in a defensive role - Very good

OK, there was a dip in his play for a while, but he's young and for the most part he's been very very good.

 

[Jim Bob]

‎The Full 60 with Craig Custance: Blue Jackets Assistant GM Josh Flynn on Sharing Ideas, and Analytics Use in Front Offices on Apple Podcasts

An awesome interview with the CBJ asst GM who helped set up the recent analytics conference in CBus.

 

[Chainshot]

Skinner and VO return, Bogo out, steady d-pairs and look...

 

[jc17]

Skinner and VO return, Bogo out, steady d-pairs and look...

As lousy as skinner has been in terms of scoring, how many teams lose 2 top 6 forwards and dont feel it? I dont think the current level will sustain but not shocked its gone up a little with VO and Jeff back.

Side note, you ever wonder if the evolving hockey guys are annoyed that Tierney profits off their data with pretty uninspired visualizations?