2019/2020 Advanced Stats / Analytics Tracker

[K8fool]

This requires the players to wear a tracker and be pinged however many times oer second . correct.

 

[K8fool]

theres not liking the way analytics is end all be all around here and then theres this

I have issues with the weight these stats are being used in the same way i see people on their phones completely missing what's happening in real life w their heads buried.. And so sensitive when called on it..lit..like addicts

 

[K8fool]

Im wasting my time here. Please have more situational context with the stats in question before suggesting possible conclusions..

 

[K8fool]

The first a i was yahweh..

 

[jc17]

I put my reply inside expanded apparently to spare the board although it was accidental

Here's my issue. It feels impossible to have a middle ground when talking about stats. Like just because I think the stats are useful to a degree, you seem to think that I consider stats a perfect evaluation tool, a replacement for watching games, and that I lack understanding with the drawbacks of these numbers.

That's just not true. I understand the lack of context, I understand that these numbers can be lousy predictors of future events, I understand that they dont tell the whole story. But I still think there's solid information that can be taken from them.

Literally all I said, was that a few metrics dipped from their very strong start. I mentioned the possibility of score effects, and a small sample size. You acted like I made a definitive statement that the team stinks because of these stats; I didn't.

Finally, I think you've made multiple statements that make me think your frustration with the stats is misguidedly being taken out on me.

Find better stats that dont demonize players who are told by coach to play a role or imply one player got caved in etc.

All stats have some value but currently they should not make your decisions just make you look harder at tape to diagnose what is occuring in flawed stats..

I still dont like sobotka and i do believe the team is generally playing well

In my original post, I didnt demonize any players. I did not "make any decisions". I didn't mention sobotka.

Clearly your issues are with people who use the numbers as gospel. I don't. So if someone writes the team is awful because of these stats, or writes a player is bad because of these stats, etc, feel free to reply to them . But don't jump on my posts for simply mentioning the numbers, when I didn't assert most of the stuff you're accusing me of.

This requires the players to wear a tracker and be pinged however many times oer second . correct.

Yeah, I think they say 10 times per second. The obvious downside it you only get data at your home games of team's you're playing so there's no context of league-wide stats.

 

[K8fool]

Here's my issue. It feels impossible to have a middle ground when talking about stats. Like just because I think the stats are useful to a degree, you seem to think that I consider stats a perfect evaluation tool, a replacement for watching games, and that I lack understanding with the drawbacks of these numbers.

That's just not true. I understand the lack of context, I understand that these numbers can be lousy predictors of future events, I understand that they dont tell the whole story. But I still think there's solid information that can be taken from them.

Literally all I said, was that a few metrics dipped from their very strong start. I mentioned the possibility of score effects, and a small sample size. You acted like I made a definitive statement that the team stinks because of these stats; I didn't.

Finally, I think you've made multiple statements that make me think your frustration with the stats is misguidedly being taken out on me.

In my original post, I didnt demonize any players. I did not "make any decisions". I didn't mention sobotka.

Clearly your issues are with people who use the numbers as gospel. I don't. So if someone writes the team is awful because of these stats, or writes a player is bad because of these stats, etc, feel free to reply to them . But don't jump on my posts for simply mentioning the numbers, when I didn't assert most of the stuff you're accusing me of.




Yeah, I think they say 10 times per second. The obvious downside it you only get data at your home games of team's you're playing so there's no context of league-wide stats.

My apologies if i come across personally at you... I was a little put off by sober comment but more of a funny challenge.. I appreciate that you agree w me about context.. And i agree with you that they have some useful role in team and player evaluation but i trust the eye test and the win test before i mess w continuity over numbers that may be counterintuitive...

 

[Buffaloed]

View attachment 266343

I think this matches what I’ve seen. They are slowing down a bit and struggling after strong starts. How much of that is score effects remains to be seen. Let’s see them not score early for once...

Biron was talking about this the other day. It's not that they're slowing down. It's that when they go up a couple goals they start thinking about padding their stats and stop playing their system. The forwards don't come back as hard and leave the zone too early looking for easy goals. Once that happens they lose the momentum to the other team and it's hard to get it back.

 

[vcv]

Lets not

I mean... they can't go the rest of the season scoring first in 90% of their games...

 

[K8fool]

" yeah, I think they say 10 times per second. The obvious downside it you only get data at your home games of team's you're playing so there's no context of league-wide stats."- jc17


This is a little more concerning for me than most.. Look with discomfort and scorn at my avatar.. I have a little bit of experience w the dark side of this w a sport i love that may become less pure w that temptation..

Yea. Yeah . I'm not sane or sober. . But ive been shown and can never deny..

 

[K8fool]

I.e.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...BMAB6BAgGEAQ&usg=AOvVaw3BB3ikETNEW5rE2yTcDkfn

 

[K8fool]

My wife tells me I've turned into a grumpy old man .. So. ... Jc17 you seem quite knowledgeable on the subject.. Don't let my issues w tech discourage you .. I'm learning..

 

[Dex]

I worry that the league isn't taking a serious look at potential negative consequences of player tracking systems. Whenever they make changes, it's often an oops we meant well affair. Then they spend years tweaking. They can never put the worms back in the can.

Will this data be used in contract negotiations? Will it change the way players play the game? Could it be used to develop an algorithm that predicts how many useful years a player has left? Will it make outcomes predictable? What are the implications for gambling? How secure will it be? Won't this have a dehumanizing effect on the game? We'll be talking about needing players with a specific data set before you know it. With enough data models could be developed to create virtual players that are indistinguishable from human players. The league needs to look to outsiders to find out how this data can be exploited in ways they'd never think of.

I'm saying a team of Replicants - Buffalo Blade Runners vs the Westworld Wings

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[member 311261]

I'm curious to know what the LOG line's xGF is compared to their actual GF?

I respect the analytics, but there is the eyeball factor that despite how well these guys can check and maintain zone pressure, they can't generate scoring chances... and when they do, they can't finish.

 

[MackAttack26]

I'm curious to know what the LOG line's xGF is compared to their actual GF?

I respect the analytics, but there is the eyeball factor that despite how well these guys can check and maintain zone pressure, they can't generate scoring chances... and when they do, they can't finish.

At 5v5

Their GF% is 60% (3 GF, 2 GA)
Their xGF% is 69.09% (3.68 xGF, 1.65 xGA).

Still a plus for this team. But them cycling, wearing down teams and drawing penalties obviously is a huge benefit even when they aren't scoring much.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Is there a stat which tracks a line's xGF against their oppositions xGF otherwise? Example if LOG go out and zero event McDavid it's more impressive than zero eventing Reaves.

 

[tsujimoto74]

At 5v5

Their GF% is 60% (3 GF, 2 GA)
Their xGF% is 69.09% (3.68 xGF, 1.65 xGA).

Still a plus for this team. But them cycling, wearing down teams and drawing penalties obviously is a huge benefit even when they aren't scoring much.

 

[jc17]

Is there a stat which tracks a line's xGF against their oppositions xGF otherwise? Example if LOG go out and zero event McDavid it's more impressive than zero eventing Reaves.

From corsica:

problem with this is 1) the numbers usually average out to very close to 50, so theres not a huge indication 2) lets say a player always faces a "suppression line", there stats will be deflated

 

[Snippit]

Last year we finished:

- 13th in CF%
- 16th in FF%
- 17th in SCF%
- 21st in xGF%
- 19th in HDCF%

Quite a disparity between these stats and their actual standings position (27th) and GF% (25th). I guess xGF% is the most indicative stat.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

From corsica: View attachment 267211

problem with this is 1) the numbers usually average out to very close to 50, so theres not a huge indication 2) lets say a player always faces a "suppression line", there stats will be deflated

So we’re not at a place with analytical support for player leverage?

 

[joshjull]

So we’re not at a place with analytical support for player leverage?

I’m not sure what you’re asking.

Are you asking if there is an algorithm or formula to predict how one line will do against another?

 

[Buffaloed]

" yeah, I think they say 10 times per second. The obvious downside it you only get data at your home games of team's you're playing so there's no context of league-wide stats."- jc17


This is a little more concerning for me than most.. Look with discomfort and scorn at my avatar.. I have a little bit of experience w the dark side of this w a sport i love that may become less pure w that temptation..

Yea. Yeah . I'm not sane or sober. . But ive been shown and can never deny..

So what you're trying to say is that hockey is to sausage, as advanced stats is to how sausage is made?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I’m not sure what you’re asking.

Are you asking if there is an algorithm or formula to predict how one line will do against another?

Almost, I'm wondering if there is a stat for xGF of a line modified by the strength of their opposition. Such a stat would give a line much credit for scoring against Barkov, or blanking McDavid.

 

[K8fool]

Almost, I'm wondering if there is a stat for xGF of a line modified by the strength of their opposition. Such a stat would give a line much credit for scoring against Barkov, or blanking McDavid.

After reading recent posts.. Im interested now w the above line of thinking .. Sucks ( to be interested) .. Anyway.. I bet each team has secret complicated metrics that pertain to each team .. Each line they face.. Every time variables like switching one player in and metric difference based on toi against certain lines.. Any idea if this is true and public only gets certain results of older algorithms..

 

[K8fool]

If you secretly value a player and no one understands the nuance.. You win..and its cheap.. How is this not picked up by eye test.. Like hitting forecheck hesitation factor etc against/ for..