2019/20 Roster Thread XXV [Dec. 4: Vorobyev recalled]

[deadhead]

My suspicion is a trade depends on their evaluation of Vorobyev and Rubtsov.

I think they've probably decided to move on from Patrick permanently, even if he returns, they can't trust him to stay on ice until he's played through a concussion or two - you can't plan around a guy who's one hit from retirement.

Ideally, a young 4C who can also play RW. Costly, but not prohibitive, we're not talking a top 6 player.
Realistically, a veteran center with one year left who a team out of contention wants to dump for a 3rd or 4th rd pick.

There's also the JVR issue, can you pay a 4LW $7M even if he's a good PP scorer?

 

[phillydownsouth]

... Lineup for game 1 of the Stanley cup finals:

G-Frost-TK
Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Laughton-Hayes-Farabee
JVR-Patrick-Raffl

Provorov-Niskanen
Sanheim-Braun
Ghost-Myers

Hart

i like this. Would also be okay if Pitlick was in that 4C spot

 

[JojoTheWhale]

My suspicion is a trade depends on their evaluation of Vorobyev and Rubtsov.

I think they've probably decided to move on from Patrick permanently, even if he returns, they can't trust him to stay on ice until he's played through a concussion or two - you can't plan around a guy who's one hit from retirement.

Ideally, a young 4C who can also play RW. Costly, but not prohibitive, we're not talking a top 6 player.
Realistically, a veteran center with one year left who a team out of contention wants to dump for a 3rd or 4th rd pick.

There's also the JVR issue, can you pay a 4LW $7M even if he's a good PP scorer?

I'm not counting Patrick in anything. He's a bonus if we ever see him again. Frost has that spot.

The problem is that there just aren't many teams out of contention yet and/or teams with surplus Centers that aren't cap dumps with some term. You can reasonably say everyone at 1.034 PPG or less is at least considering selling, but Toronto should be tossed out for obvious reasons. That leaves:

• Detroit: No reasonable NHL targets.
• NJ: John Hayden isn't worth an asset.
• Ottawa: Pageau, Tierney, and Namestnikov all have fit/$ cost/asset cost concerns. Hell, Pageau's headed toward maybe returning a 1.
• LA: Trevor Lewis is the best fit I can find on any team, but he's a pending UFA at 2MM, so you'd probably have to pay them to retain.
• Chicago: No reasonable NHL targets.
• Columbus: No reasonable NHL targets.
• Anaheim: I sure hope they have no interest in Devin Shore.
• Calgary: Mangiapane is up with Backlund/Tkachuk so that's a complete no-go. Derek Ryan has another year at 3+. Let's not have the Jankowski discussion.

Next in the standings is San Jose, likely not ready to sell for obvious reasons. Minnesota's on a massive heater. The best fit from Montreal is probably Nick Cousins, which is a discussion I'm not interested in having here. There just aren't that many opportunities.

 

[landsbergfan]

I'm not counting Patrick in anything. He's a bonus if we ever see him again. Frost has that spot.

The problem is that there just aren't many teams out of contention yet and/or teams with surplus Centers that aren't cap dumps with some term. You can reasonably say everyone at 1.034 PPG or less is at least considering selling, but Toronto should be tossed out for obvious reasons. That leaves:

• Detroit: No reasonable NHL targets.
• NJ: John Hayden isn't worth an asset.
• Ottawa: Pageau, Tierney, and Namestnikov all have fit/$ cost/asset cost concerns. Hell, Pageau's headed toward maybe returning a 1.
• LA: Trevor Lewis is the best fit I can find on any team, but he's a pending UFA at 2MM, so you'd probably have to pay them to retain.
• Chicago: No reasonable NHL targets.
• Columbus: No reasonable NHL targets.
• Anaheim: I sure hope they have no interest in Devin Shore.
• Calgary: Mangiapane is up with Backlund/Tkachuk so that's a complete no-go. Derek Ryan has another year at 3+. Let's not have the Jankowski discussion.

Next in the standings is San Jose, likely not ready to sell for obvious reasons. Minnesota's on a massive heater. The best fit from Montreal is probably Nick Cousins, which is a discussion I'm not interested in having here. There just aren't that many opportunities.

I feel like we are going to look back at the last 4-5 years or so (basically the entire Hextall era) as a massive black hole for available players, and specifically centers. It was the time period where the league started to transition from no longer overpaying older guys to paying out high end young guys. Players are now signing shorter deals for more control of their immediate future. Seems that way in my anecdotal analysis of the situation. Only a handful of guys in that entire time period were actually worth what they signed for. The only real help the Flyers were going to get was from within. Unfortunately for them, the period aligned perfectly with the black hole of a prospect pool.

 

[flyersnorth]

Replace Provorov with Ghost and put Sanheim on the 2nd unit. Stop ****ing around and giving PP time based on cap hits.

Provorov is not the problem. He leads all NHL defensemen in PP goals, and leads our team in PP goals and points, and is 2nd in PP assists.

JVR is more of a problem, I'd say. He has 1 PP point.

Assuming PP1 is G, Provy, Jake, JVR, Frost, I'd replace Jake with Ghost, or find a better option than JVR. That's just not working this season so far - like, at all.

 

[deadhead]

I'm not counting Patrick in anything. He's a bonus if we ever see him again. Frost has that spot.

The problem is that there just aren't many teams out of contention yet and/or teams with surplus Centers that aren't cap dumps with some term. You can reasonably say everyone at 1.034 PPG or less is at least considering selling, but Toronto should be tossed out for obvious reasons. That leaves:

Wonder what JVR could garner, he's still a reliable goal scorer and some team might covet that skill.
His salary would make it hard, but if Kessel can be dealt twice, it can be done.
Probably have to take a "Lehtera" as part of the package to make the money work.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Provorov is not the problem. He leads all NHL defensemen in PP goals, and leads our team in PP goals and points, and is 2nd in PP assists.

JVR is more of a problem, I'd say. He has 1 PP point.

Divorcing Skater and Goalie performance is extremely important to long-term success, doubly so in SSS situations.

Wonder what JVR could garner, he's still a reliable goal scorer and some team might covet that skill.
His salary would make it hard, but if Kessel can be dealt twice, it can be done.
Probably have to take a "Lehtera" as part of the package to make the money work.

Sure, I'm open to trading everyone but Couturier. I'm not up on who needs scoring Wingers right now, but it's worth checking.

 

[flyersnorth]

Divorcing Skater and Goalie performance is extremely important to long-term success, doubly so in SSS situations.

You mean JVR? I mean, 28 games into the season and he's been a non-factor in every game situation. Of course he can still turn it around and end up with 25 goals and the last few games might be that kickstart he needed.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

You mean JVR? I mean, 28 games into the season and he's been a non-factor in every game situation. Of course he can still turn it around and end up with 25 goals and the last few games might be that kickstart he needed.

Both of them. Provorov wasn't particularly good on the PP in Brandon or at the NHL level once you adjusted for playing time, Shooting Percentages, etc. Maybe he is now, but I would strongly object to the probability jump required to assume it after ~20 Games.

I'll play along and just use this year to illustrate my point. With Provorov on the ice on the PP, the Flyers' Shot map looks like this:

Meanwhile, among Defensemen with 20+ Minutes of PP time, he's got the 6th highest oiS% leaguewide, at just over 20%. Average is around 11.5%. That is not in any possible way sustainable with Shot Quality so poor.

There are signs he's made major jumps at ES. Not so much on the PP.

 

[flyersnorth]

Both of them. Provorov wasn't particularly good on the PP in Brandon or at the NHL level once you adjusted for playing time, Shooting Percentages, etc. Maybe he is now, but I would strongly object to the probability jump required to assume it after ~20 Games.

I'll play along and just use this year to illustrate my point. With Provorov on the ice on the PP, the Flyers' Shot map looks like this:

Meanwhile, among Defensemen with 20+ Minutes of PP time, he's got the 6th highest oiS% leaguewide, at just over 20%. Average is around 11.5%. That is not in any possible way sustainable with Shot Quality so poor.

There are signs he's made major jumps at ES. Not so much on the PP.

Sure, and I didn't mean keep him (or anyone else) there forever. I just meant he is performing well in terms of results. So let's see if there might be something else (e.g. JVR, Jake) that might be tweaked that could give us something better. He seems to be growing his game.

I'm not dogmatic about any player or any position. Just whatever gives us the best results.

 

[Striiker]

Provorov is not the problem. He leads all NHL defensemen in PP goals, and leads our team in PP goals and points, and is 2nd in PP assists.

JVR is more of a problem, I'd say. He has 1 PP point.

Assuming PP1 is G, Provy, Jake, JVR, Frost, I'd replace Jake with Ghost, or find a better option than JVR. That's just not working this season so far - like, at all.

Provorov has been extremely fortunate this year and him leading in PP points is thanks to being in the right place at the right time when it comes to what unit he's on. Nobody else had nearly the same opportunities he's had (both in quantity and quality). Having the most points doesn't mean he's been the best, just like TK isn't a better PP player than Giroux, even though he happens to have more PP points.

He's been very good overall, but not very good on the PP... we have far better options and anywhere we can lower his total icetime without hurting the team should be taken advantage of.

Ghost is still easily a better option and should be on that top unit, with Sanheim on the 2nd unit.

 

[Curufinwe]

Myers is now leading the defense in ESP.

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[deadhead]

Misha should understand by now that a shot at the NHL isn't an entitlement but an opportunity that can be snatched away.
He has the size and skill to stick, but needs to play with more urgency, like someone is trying to steal a big paycheck from him.

 

[Striiker]

Bleh

 

[Flyers Time]

If they trade ghost for a bottom six forward and a pick I’m going to lose my mind.

 

[Curufinwe]

Vorobyev recalled.

 

[Johnk0728]

Provorov has been extremely fortunate this year and him leading in PP points is thanks to being in the right place at the right time when it comes to what unit he's on. Nobody else had nearly the same opportunities he's had (both in quantity and quality). Having the most points doesn't mean he's been the best, just like TK isn't a better PP player than Giroux, even though he happens to have more PP points.

He's been very good overall, but not very good on the PP... we have far better options and anywhere we can lower his total icetime without hurting the team should be taken advantage of.

Ghost is still easily a better option and should be on that top unit, with Sanheim on the 2nd unit.

Weird...you say JVR is just having bad luck but Provorov is just lucky. No bias here...LOL!

 

[Johnk0728]

If they trade ghost for a bottom six forward and a pick I’m going to lose my mind.

If they don't get more than that for Gostisbehere; then there is an issue. They should be able to get a bottom 6 forward for Hagg. He is the guy to move now. As he has been playing good but you need a 7 dman in case of injury.

 

[Rebels57]

Vorobyev recalled.

Called it. Made too much sense.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Bleh

hey least its not Stewie stew getting slotted in..

 

[David St Hubbins]

Called it. Made too much sense.

Does this mean Fletcher isnt an idiot sabotaging the team?

 

[Striiker]

Weird...you say JVR is just having bad luck but Provorov is just lucky. No bias here...LOL!

I like Provorov about 100000x more than I like JVR. It's not close. However, if we're specifically talking about the PP...
_______________________________________________________________________
Provorov has 10 PP points, pacing for 29. Over the past 3 seasons he's averaged 4 per year.

JVR has 1 PP point, pacing for 3. Over the past 3 seasons he's averaged 18.6 per year.

If you can't tell that one is getting lucky and the other is getting unlucky then I think we figured out why NBCSP fired you.
_______________________________________________________________________

Provorovs been great at 5v5 but he's just not a good PP player. He's outscoring Giroux (best PP player in the league this decade) and pacing for Giroux's average PP rate (30 per year over the last 3 years). That's a fluke. Especially if you look at the context of his scoring, which has been covered multiple times now.

 

[flyersnorth]

Provorov has been extremely fortunate this year and him leading in PP points is thanks to being in the right place at the right time when it comes to what unit he's on. Nobody else had nearly the same opportunities he's had (both in quantity and quality). Having the most points doesn't mean he's been the best, just like TK isn't a better PP player than Giroux, even though he happens to have more PP points.

He's been very good overall, but not very good on the PP... we have far better options and anywhere we can lower his total icetime without hurting the team should be taken advantage of.

Ghost is still easily a better option and should be on that top unit, with Sanheim on the 2nd unit.

I have no issues changing things around on both PPs because they've been struggling the past few weeks. But I don't understand the level to which you want Provorov to have nothing at all to do with the PP when he has performed way better than expected. Don't we want him to develop that part of his game too? He's noticeably better this year, and he's finally getting some results. Why would you want Ghost at the expense of Provorov rather than having BOTH performing at a high level?

The TOI doesn't seem to be hurting him, and that's around what #1 defensemen play across the league.

Like I said, I'd change out JVR before Provorov, or if they want to try Ghost on PP1, that's fine too. Instead of JVR, maybe Lindblom or Farabee. Any way you slice it, JVR is the one that is completely underwhelming on PP1.

 

[Striiker]

I have no issues changing things around on both PPs because they've been struggling the past few weeks. But I don't understand the level to which you want Provorov to have nothing at all to do with the PP when he has performed way better than expected. Don't we want him to develop that part of his game too? He's noticeably better this year, and he's finally getting some results. Why would you want Ghost at the expense of Provorov rather than having BOTH performing at a high level?

The TOI doesn't seem to be hurting him, and that's around what #1 defensemen play across the league.

Like I said, I'd change out JVR before Provorov, or if they want to try Ghost on PP1, that's fine too. Instead of JVR, maybe Lindblom or Farabee. Any way you slice it, JVR is the one that is completely underwhelming on PP1.

Because it's clearly a fluke in a small sample size and I'm just not tricked by it like many of you guys are. Now that the luck has dried up there's not even that "well it's working" excuse anymore.

He's not looking better on the PP, he's just scoring more... which is great but it's not sustainable and we have clear better options who will do a better job if given the same chance. The same flaws are all still there, too stiff, not creative enough, doesn't open up space... he's just a turret. He's been extremely fortunate to have been on the Couts unit when it was hot to start the year (thanks to TK and Lindblom) and then just so happened to be moved to the G unit when G was moved back to the correct side. Meanwhile Ghost was only on the Giroux unit when G was on the wrong side and then moved to the already cooled off 2nd unit and has icetime cut. Sanheim hasn't even had a chance on either PP, outside of like 3 games.

It's not about wanting things for Ghost or Provorov as individuals, it's about wanting the PP unit to have the best possible chance to score. Ghost gives them the best possible chance. That's all there is to it. Ghost leads to a better PP unit, a better PP unit leads to more PP goals, more PP goals lead to more wins.