2019/20 Roster Thread XXV [Dec. 4: Vorobyev recalled]

[lancer247]

OK, thanks.

And yeah, they're not really going in right now but like I said, part of that is the unit being an issue and part is just bad luck and a small sample size. I'm not worried about it.

I like ghost and want him on the PP1 but what would you consider a good sample size? Aren’t those numbers for all of 2018?
I think he needs to shoot more. I’ll live with a low percentage.

 

[Striiker]

I like ghost and want him on the PP1 but what would you consider a good sample size? Aren’t those numbers for all of 2018?
I think he needs to shoot more. I’ll live with a low percentage.

Those stats are just from this season so far. Not even 20 games.

And yeah, I want him shooting more too but I think his current situation is limiting that quite a bit. That’s why I want him used more/better. It’s such a waste of one of our best weapons.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Ghost is our best 3rd pairing defenseman since Oskar barrulis.

 

[bobbythebrain]

What's wrong w Ghost on the current pp? The 2 units are sharing equal time and Coots unit has been successful.

 

[Striiker]

The problem is Provorov on either unit.

 

[Magua]

The problem is Provorov on either unit.

He just had a PP assist last night. This is why I need to put you on ignore.

 

[Striiker]

He just had a PP assist last night. This is why I need to put you on ignore.

As soon as that goal happened I knew it would be used by certain characters to validate Provorov being on that unit and Giroux being on the wrong side, IGNORING THAT IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH EITHER.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Provy is also tied for the team lead in PP points. He shouldn't be on the PP right?

 

[baudib1]

There are big differences between Hayes and old “3C”outurier.

- Coots is a legit Selke-worthy center, Hayes is just good. It’s like saying Ovechkin and Oshie are both physical, goal-scoring wingers.
- Coots’ best winger for most of his career was Matt Read, and there was a brief stint with Simmonds. Hayes is playing with Voracek, they’re expected to score.
- Coots was making 60% of Hayes’ salary.

 

[deadhead]

Couterier wasn't a UFA when he signed that contract, and had scored 31, 29 ES points the two years leading into the contract, and 31 ES points the year after he signed the contract. It covered 2 RFA years and 4 UFA years. The cap was about 15% lower as well. So it would be $5.2M today, similar to TK's deal. Hayes is a better PK guy than Couts was when he signed his contract.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Huh? Are we sure Couturier wasn't one of the most effective PKers in the league?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

What I don't know (@JojoTheWhale) is what is the model for Natural Stat Trick's xG.

It's his own, but closely related to others. This string of Tweets has the only information about it that I've seen:

 

[VladDrag]

It's his own, but closely related to others. This string of Tweets has the only information about it that I've seen:

As always - Thank you.

 

[VladDrag]

The problem is Provorov on either unit.

In a vacuum - I do think Provy could be a serviceable PP defensemen (note - not QB). You can't count on him being the playmaker; he's just not that guy. But he can move the puck effectively and quickly. He gets a fair amount of chances from HD areas too, relative to other dmen. He can help a team as a PP defensemen.

He's got 7 PP points this year, which is already more than any other season. He' been a bit lucky this year too. But I think you can look at Provy and see a guy who has above-average instincts (read: not elite), and above average skill set (read:not elite) and see how his game can be beneficial to a powerplay where he's not the primary play maker. I don't think it's crazy to think he could be producing 10-15 pp points a season if he's the #1 PP dman long term.

I still think there is one clear cut option better than him, and another one that's very likely to be better than him at creating offense.

 

[TCTC]

You don't need a PPQB when you have Giroux. Couturier's unit needs one because they don't have a player like Giroux.
Ghost on Couturier's unit makes perfect sense.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sanheim not getting any PP time at all is still bizarre.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Huh? Are we sure Couturier wasn't one of the most effective PKers in the league?

Yeah, suddenly Kevin ****ing Hayes is Guy Carbonneau and Curt is chopped liver. Hayes is a very good PK specialist, and it only cost seven point one million mother****ing dollars. Woo.

 

[Striiker]

In a vacuum - I do think Provy could be a serviceable PP defensemen (note - not QB). You can't count on him being the playmaker; he's just not that guy. But he can move the puck effectively and quickly. He gets a fair amount of chances from HD areas too, relative to other dmen. He can help a team as a PP defensemen.

He's got 7 PP points this year, which is already more than any other season. He' been a bit lucky this year too. But I think you can look at Provy and see a guy who has above-average instincts (read: not elite), and above average skill set (read:not elite) and see how his game can be beneficial to a powerplay where he's not the primary play maker. I don't think it's crazy to think he could be producing 10-15 pp points a season if he's the #1 PP dman long term.

I still think there is one clear cut option better than him, and another one that's very likely to be better than him at creating offense.

I don’t disagree with any of this.

My entire point has been that we have better options, so that’s why he shouldn’t be on either unit. Ghost and Sanheim should be the two main guys, with Niskanen as 3rd if they want to keep two D on the Couts unit.

Plus, we should be looking to lower Provorovs icetime whenever possible, so this is just such an obvious place to do it. Let him play at 5v5 and on the PK and let the better PP defensemen handle the PP. The PP gets better and Provorovs individual play might improve too when he has fresher legs. Win/win.

As far as QB goes, none of our D would be or have been, so I have no idea why I keep seeing people compare Provorov vs Ghosts QB ability (not you). It’s always going to be Giroux, just like it has been when Ghost was on that unit for the last few years. But Ghost is such a great weapon for Giroux to use, with his creativity, quick passing, shot, and insane ability to keep pucks in the zone. Giroux being on the wrong side completely kills that though, so of course that unit wasn’t performing with Ghost there... it had nothing to do with him.

But even ignoring Ghost, if they’re determined to keep him on the Couts unit (I wouldn’t) then Provorov should still be replaced by Sanheim. We can’t keep handicapping so many of our top offensive players (Ghost, Giroux, Voracek, and Sanheim) and expect to be successful. It needs to be fixed as soon as possible.

 

[deadhead]

Sanheim not getting any PP time at all is still bizarre.

This may simply reflect that AV doesn't want too much on his plate yet, he's been a bit erratic at 5x5.
Sanheim and Myers are now a PK pair and getting plenty of ES time.
And if you look at Sanheim's PP metrics last year, they're similar to Provorov's this year:
Provorov CF/60 88.9, xGF/60 5.89
Sanheim CF/60 77.3, xGF/60 6.34

You don't need a PPQB when you have Giroux. Couturier's unit needs one because they don't have a player like Giroux.
Ghost on Couturier's unit makes perfect sense.

This makes perfect sense, you don't want all your playmakers on one unit, balance the playmakers, shooters and net guys on each group.
Note that Provorov and Ghost are getting equal PP time, which may simply reflect wanting two balanced PP units out there with fresh legs.

 

[flyersnorth]

The Flyers as a team have an 8.7% shooting percentage - which is good for 25th overall.

Big reason for that is both Ghost (3%) and JVR (7%) at career lows. JVR hasn't been below 10.8% since the first time he was with Philly in 2011. He was sportin' 16% last season.

Let's hope those two guys get going! JVR had ZERO goals and ONE assist at this time last year (3GP, still injured until Nov 17). He had 4 points through December 6th.

He already has a quiet 4g, 5a this year. Tonight would be a good night for both he and Ghost to open up their offense.

 

[Tripod]

And if you look at Sanheim's PP metrics last year, they're similar to Provorov's this year:
Provorov CF/60 88.9, xGF/60 5.89
Sanheim CF/60 77.3, xGF/60 6.34

And what was Provy's #'s last year...you know...so we can compare Trav and Provy when both were mostly playing with the 2nd unit and that same players....even though we know Provy had time with the top unit.

Right now, you are comparing Provy with good, top PP players with Sanheim playing with a unit that didn't produce....except when Sanheim was getting PP time.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I haven’t seen much offensive spark from Sanheim 5 on 5 this season. Certainly nowhere near the “he must be on one of the PPs” level.

 

[Tripod]

I haven’t seen much offensive spark from Sanheim 5 on 5 this season. Certainly nowhere near the “he must be on one of the PPs” level.

And yet he leads our defense in ES points this year.

 

[Rebels57]

Sanheim not getting any PP time at all is still bizarre.

He's on a bridge deal. Do you want to be able to afford him in 2 years or not?

 

[landsbergfan]

And yet he leads our defense in ES points this year.

I think they're weighted as follows:

Voracek's points <<<< secondary assists < points scored off of skates < PP points < 5v5 points you do see < shots (but only ones on net) < ES points you don't see < Konecny's points <<<<< CORSI