2019/20 Roster Thread XXV [Dec. 4: Vorobyev recalled]

[Ghosts Beer]

Only 4 times on the power play this entire season did Ghost attempt a shot on goal & it not end up on net?

I’m calling BS on that stat like I call BS on the turnover stats.

He has had more than 4 total shots blocked and/or miss the net on the PP.

 

[Johnk0728]

We shouldn’t be signing any centers...

Frost should be in that spot immediately. Not to mention Patrick if he’s able to play again.

If anything we might need Hayes to move out of the way in a year or two.

Shot talk on the PP:

Ghost 18 shots, 14 SOG, 4 missed the net
Provy 15 shots, 14 SOG, 1 missed the net
Nisky 9 shots, 7 SOG, 2 missed the net

So yes Ghost has missed the net more...but not like the amount that some are talking like it is. And when you look at Ghost vs Nisky....they are missing the net at the same rate, but Ghost has taken 2 times the amount of shots.

Those stats are complete BS. No way Provorov is 14 for 15. No fricking way. Throw that spreadsheet out.

 

[Striiker]

hockeyreference tracks thru% for a real quick display of that data. Ghost is 4th on the team (for defensemen). His current thru% is slightly higher than his career avg (funny enough his first season was his worst)

Ghost's most common teammate is still Robert Hagg, known trashcan

His second most common teammate is Justin Braun, shooting a whole 0% for the season

My favorite stat, and again one where I just cannot seem to find a single reason why Ghost wouldn't be on the "top PP", is this right here
Shayne Gostisbehere - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Nearly every single guy who has spent a decent amount of time on the powerplay with Ghost has a higher xGF% with him than without him.

Shot talk on the PP:

Ghost 18 shots, 14 SOG, 4 missed the net
Provy 15 shots, 14 SOG, 1 missed the net
Nisky 9 shots, 7 SOG, 2 missed the net

So yes Ghost has missed the net more...but not like the amount that some are talking like it is. And when you look at Ghost vs Nisky....they are missing the net at the same rate, but Ghost has taken 2 times the amount of shots.

Perfect, thank you both.

This is what I'm saying... so many people are getting on his case about things they're perceiving, but aren't actually true. He's not slower than a year or two ago, his shot isn't worse, he hasn't lost his scoring ability, his defense isn't bad, or any of the other things people have mentioned to explain why he's not scoring at a high rate... he's the same player he was in 2017-2018 and there's no reason to believe he's no longer capable of the same level of play. He's still our best offensive defensemen, he's still our best PP defensemen, and he's sure as hell not a 3rd pair quality player. He's getting the Couturier at 3C treatment and his stats are suffering for the same reason Couturiers did.

Some people are being dishonest and have a noted long-standing bias against the guy, but I also think plenty of others are just innocently mistaken and hopefully seeing this will make them realize that they're just remembering wrong.

 

[Tripod]

"those stats from NHL.com don't match my eye test so they must be wrong"

-Impartial Fans

 

[deadhead]

Ghost has definitely fallen off since 2017-18, a performance he's unlikely to repeat the rest of his career.
However, that's pretty normal, a lot of players have an outlier season and it takes a couple years to ascertain their true level of play.

Ghost on the PP has fallen off, but not a huge falloff, he's still top ten or so, just not at the top anymore.
8th in CF/60, 19th in xGF/60.
At even strength he's not a liability, but no one in their right mind would play him over our top four either.
The three kids are more talented, and Niskanen is bigger, stronger, smarter and a better all around defenseman.

Anyone who has actually watched him the last few years knows he's doesn't have great speed (has lost numerous races), and teams aren't intimidated by him and are more willing to pressure him. Doesn't mean he can't play, but there's nothing special there anymore.

He's still quick, agile with good vision and playmaking skills, but he's also grossly undersized and avoids contact in the corners and behind the net - he takes hits at about half the rate of all other Flyer defensemen.

 

[Curufinwe]

10 things: Flyers hang with Capitals, remain a...

This season, Andreoff hasn’t resembled the ineffective bottom-sixer he appeared to be in training camp and preseason. Prior to the game, the 28-year-old acknowledged he was far from playing his best hockey during that open competition for a roster spot.

“I mean, I don’t think I had the best camp,” he said. “You know, it’s obviously tough just hopping into exhibition (games). But yeah, I don’t think those couple games were my best hockey, and then I guess, when I was playing down in Lehigh, I found my game and I got back to it.”

 

[Rebels57]

Ghost is definitely not getting the same level of shot quality he was getting in years past, but I think that is a combination of defenses shading his way to take away those big one-timers and the god awful tinkering with the top powerplay unit.

 

[flyersnorth]

I think this “Ghost can’t get pucks on net” thing is just like the whole “Jake won’t shoot” imaginary thing where it’s just confirmation bias and any time he misses you only remember that.

Some definitely posted a graphic recently showing he gets pucks on net at an above average rate. I wish I could find that post.

He's 4th among Flyers defensemen...

% of shots getting through
Provorov, 55.4%
Sanheim, 54.2%
Niskanen, 52.9%
Ghost, 48.2%
Myers, 45.5%
Braun, 42.5%

League-wide, there are a few outliers (defensemen) in the 70s, but in general, the high-% defensemen are in the 60-65% range (Chara, Ekblad, Shattenkirk, Letang).

 

[Flyotes]

Great thread.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

"those stats from NHL.com don't match my eye test so they must be wrong"

-Impartial Fans

If you think Ghost has only had 4 PP shot attempts not get on net the entire season I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

This is why Dave Tippett tracks his own stats & scoffs at the inaccuracy of so many “official” ones.

“those extended stats are listed on NHL.com so they must be 100% accurate”

- Naive Fans

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Just looking up Ghost's numbers and noticed that his PDO is 94.2. Only Braun's (89.4) is worse on defense.

The real culprit is his unbelievably low on-ice shooting percentage.

Ghost's OISH% is 5.2% (his individual sh% is 3.1, half his career average of 6%). Above only Twarynski and Hagg (Andreoff, Rubtsov and Morin are lower but sample size is 1-2 games).

So while Ghost's on-ice save % (89%) is 7th on the team (6th if you want to exclude Myers' 6 game sample), it's the crazy low shooting percentage that is skewing the numbers.

I wonder what his ice time looks like distributed across forward lines... Does anyone have that info?

For reference, every other defenseman on the team is essentially double or triple Ghost's shooting %:

Myers, 17.1 (only 6 games, but he is the one actually scoring the goals)
Sanheim, 15.4
Provorov, 12.1
Niskanen, 10.3
Braun, 9.8

Gift of playing with Braun, your sh% plummet. But he is good boy from Minnesota so it gets overlooked.

 

[flyersnorth]

He's 4th among Flyers defensemen...

% of shots getting through
Provorov, 55.4%
Sanheim, 54.2%
Niskanen, 52.9%
Ghost, 48.2%
Myers, 45.5%
Braun, 42.5%

League-wide, there are a few outliers (defensemen) in the 70s, but in general, the high-% defensemen are in the 60-65% range (Chara, Ekblad, Shattenkirk, Letang).

Just to add that Ghost has never been above 50% and his 48.2% this year is within a few % points of his usual. His lowest was 44% in his rookie year.

 

[Striiker]

He's 4th among Flyers defensemen...

% of shots getting through
Provorov, 55.4%
Sanheim, 54.2%
Niskanen, 52.9%
Ghost, 48.2%
Myers, 45.5%
Braun, 42.5%

League-wide, there are a few outliers (defensemen) in the 70s, but in general, the high-% defensemen are in the 60-65% range (Chara, Ekblad, Shattenkirk, Letang).

I don't know where you got those numbers, but even assuming they're true, a matter of a few percent means nothing in the big picture.

Especially since people are talking as if he can't hit the net at all. The fact that he's that close to his career average and the others on the team, while nobody is complaining about their shooting, shows these aren't valid complaints.

 

[TheKingPin]

Well I’d say that he needs to be able to wind up for that big shot if he’s going to be effective not just for him but the whole unit. It’s not his fault as teams are game planning for him but he has to figure that part out himself and have the coaches get him more space. Generally, PKs are pressuring the points more than when he first came in. Given that I think Sanheim is a better option than him as a rover. Provy is better at that than ghost too. Appleyard has stuff that shows Provy gets net front better than most the league I think.

I think this “Ghost can’t get pucks on net” thing is just like the whole “Jake won’t shoot” imaginary thing where it’s just confirmation bias and any time he misses you only remember that.

Some definitely posted a graphic recently showing he gets pucks on net at an above average rate. I wish I could find that post.

Jake doesn’t just miss the net, when he gets the net it’s an easy shot to save and control.

 

[VladDrag]

If you think Ghost has only had 4 PP shot attempts not get on net the entire season I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

This is why Dave Tippett tracks his own stats & scoffs at the inaccuracy of so many “official” ones.

“those extended stats are listed on NHL.com so they must be 100% accurate”

- Naive Fans

Just for fun - I think I did my math right, but I didn't really check.

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	Shots	SH%	iCF	iFF	Blocked Shots	Unblocked missed shots	% shots Blocked	% unblocked Shots on target
Ivan Provorov	PHI	D	18	52.63333	14	14.29	20	15	5	1	25.00%	93.33%
Shayne Gostisbehere	PHI	D	18	51.95	13	0	25	17	8	4	32.00%	76.47%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

iCF - All shots taken (missed, blocked, on net, post)
iFF - All non blocked shots (missed, on net, post)
shots - shots on net only

 

[Johnk0728]

Perfect, thank you both.

This is what I'm saying... so many people are getting on his case about things they're perceiving, but aren't actually true. He's not slower than a year or two ago, his shot isn't worse, he hasn't lost his scoring ability, his defense isn't bad, or any of the other things people have mentioned to explain why he's not scoring at a high rate... he's the same player he was in 2017-2018 and there's no reason to believe he's no longer capable of the same level of play. He's still our best offensive defensemen, he's still our best PP defensemen, and he's sure as hell not a 3rd pair quality player. He's getting the Couturier at 3C treatment and his stats are suffering for the same reason Couturiers did.

Some people are being dishonest and have a noted long-standing bias against the guy, but I also think plenty of others are just innocently mistaken and hopefully seeing this will make them realize that they're just remembering wrong.

The 3rd line center now is also getting similar treatment that #14 used to get. He played a ton of hard minutes against Ovevhkins line last night and he has helped the PK go from embarrassing to one of the best in the NHL.
As for Ghost; he has played his best hockey over the last week. he is not the player he was when he first came up age and knee injuries do that. But he is also smarter now.

 

[Striiker]

Well I’d say that he needs to be able to wind up for that big shot if he’s going to be effective not just for him but the whole unit. It’s not his fault as teams are game planning for him but he has to figure that part out himself and have the coaches get him more space. Generally, PKs are pressuring the points more than when he first came in. Given that I think Sanheim is a better option than him as a rover. Provy is better at that than ghost too. Appleyard has stuff that shows Provy gets net front better than most the league I think.

I'm not seeing whatever you're seeing here.

Ghost is the same player he was a year and a half ago... he didn't get slower or lose his shot. If anything he's even better defensively than he was and he still has all the same offensive skills. It's just that he's being used awfully so it's killing any chance of him scoring. Plus, he's only been on the Giroux PP unit when Giroux was on the wrong side, so of course he's not going to be scoring. If that kills Girouxs scoring then there's no way it won't kill the other guys on the unit.

I think a lot of people are just getting on his ass as a scapegoat and are piling on along with what other people have said, even if the complaints are completely false.

Jake doesn’t just miss the net, when he gets the net it’s an easy shot to save and control.

I didn't mean that Jake misses the net, I mean how he has an unearned reputation that isn't really true. He's not a great shooter, but he does shoot a lot, so people saying he "never shoots" are just imagining it. Just like people are imagining that Ghost misses the net all the time.

 

[flyersnorth]

I don't know where you got those numbers, but even assuming they're true, a matter of a few percent means nothing in the big picture.

Especially since people are talking as if he can't hit the net at all. The fact that he's that close to his career average and the others on the team, while nobody is complaining about their shooting, shows these aren't valid complaints.

They're from hockey-reference.com.

Ghost had an 11.2 shooting % his rookie year (17 goals) but hasn't come anywhere close to that since. He's been in the 3-6% range (with this year being a career-low 3% so far).

So it's not that he's not hitting the net necessarily - it's that his shots are no longer going in anywhere near as often.

 

[Striiker]

They're from hockey-reference.com.

Ghost had an 11.2 shooting % his rookie year (17 goals) but hasn't come anywhere close to that since. He's been in the 3-6% range (with this year being a career-low 3% so far).

So it's not that he's not hitting the net necessarily - it's that his shots are no longer going in anywhere near as often.

OK, thanks.

And yeah, they're not really going in right now but like I said, part of that is the unit being an issue and part is just bad luck and a small sample size. I'm not worried about it.

 

[flyersnorth]

OK, thanks.

And yeah, they're not really going in right now but like I said, part of that is the unit being an issue and part is just bad luck and a small sample size. I'm not worried about it.

FWIW, Karlsson (6.8% career avg) and Burns (6.9% career avg) aren't that much higher than Ghost (6% career avg) but they attempt about 100-200 shots more than Ghost, hence better results.

 

[Striiker]

FWIW, Karlsson (6.8% career avg) and Burns (6.9% career avg) aren't that much higher than Ghost (6% career avg) but they attempt about 100-200 shots more than Ghost, hence better results.

Well when it comes to guys like that, being even close to them is a great thing.

 

[Rebels57]

I'd like to see the Top PP unit use that bumper pass more to set Ghost up for bombs. That umbrella passing is too predictable to throw PKers off.

 

[VladDrag]

Just for fun - I think I did my math right, but I didn't really check.

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	Shots	SH%	iCF	iFF	Blocked Shots	Unblocked missed shots	% shots Blocked	% unblocked Shots on target
Ivan Provorov	PHI	D	18	52.63333	14	14.29	20	15	5	1	25.00%	93.33%
Shayne Gostisbehere	PHI	D	18	51.95	13	0	25	17	8	4	32.00%	76.47%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

iCF - All shots taken (missed, blocked, on net, post)
iFF - All non blocked shots (missed, on net, post)
shots - shots on net only

Another thing to note here is that despite Provy's ability to get his shots off on net, Ghost still has a better raw ixG (Ghost - 0.85, Provy - 0.74). So his shots are coming from more dangerous opportunities.

What I don't know (@JojoTheWhale) is what is the model for Natural Stat Trick's xG.

 

[lancer247]

Ghost is definitely not getting the same level of shot quality he was getting in years past, but I think that is a combination of defenses shading his way to take away those big one-timers and the god awful tinkering with the top powerplay unit.

Ghost just said in an interview that it is harder for him to get good shots. When he came up as a rookie no one knew what to expect but now teams don’t give him the same space so he has to figure out how to get them through. - paraphrasing

 

[lancer247]

FWIW, Karlsson (6.8% career avg) and Burns (6.9% career avg) aren't that much higher than Ghost (6% career avg) but they attempt about 100-200 shots more than Ghost, hence better results.

Who has been Burns partner the past few years?
Braun?