Roster Moves: 2019-20 Roster Thread II

[Striiker]

On-ice success will move the needle for sure, but just look at how hyped people were for Harper before he even played a single game as a Philly, how many tickets and merchandise he sold before he swung at a single pitch. I'd be stunned if the Flyers weren't taking notes on that and planning to act accordingly, especially with the cap space to pull off a big splashy move.

But that happened RIGHT before the season started, not multiple months in advance. I think that makes a difference.

 

[Rebels57]

We will probably end up with Skinner in UFA and then trade for a dman (Spurgeon, Trouba, unknown) That's my guess.

 

[mja]

But that happened RIGHT before the season started, not multiple months in advance. I think that makes a difference.

People followed that courtship since the fall like it was the last season of Game of Thrones. There's something to be said for star power.

 

[Striiker]

People followed that courtship since the fall like it was the last season of Game of Thrones. There's something to be said for star power.

Ignoring the difference in the size of baseball and hockey, I think it'd be different if the courtship of Panarin was going to take all summer long and finally culminate right before the season started. But I doubt that's going to happen. My point is that once an event ends, people quickly move on unless something keeps their attention focused on it.

I'm just saying I don't think signing Panarin as FA in July has enough juice to hold fans attention until October. This is the same fanbase that has the foresight and memory of a gnat.

 

[Tripod]

We have Gritty for merch sales.

 

[baudib1]

Q will probably do more to capture fans' attention than Panarin. Panarin has basically no mass appeal, it's not like he's Crosby or McDavid. But basically they need to get into the playoffs and win a couple rounds before casual fans get back into the fold.

 

[deadhead]

Coaches in hockey have no mass appeal either, half the Flyer fans probably don't know who Q is.

 

[baudib1]

Q is the biggest name coach in the sport since Bowman retired, people know who he is. He brings instant credibility.

 

[baudib1]

Brock Nelson is exactly the type of UFA we should avoid.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Brock Nelson is exactly the type of UFA we should avoid.

Depends on the contract, & he’s a fallback from Duchene, but he’s crazy underrated the way he gets scoffed at by some posters as a potential signing.

Brock Nelson is 37th in the entire NHL in ES goals over the last 5 seasons.

 

[PALE PWNR]

Q is the biggest name coach in the sport since Bowman retired, people know who he is. He brings instant credibility.

But does he bring wins?

 

[deadhead]

Nelson - last three seasons
EV GAR 8.8, PP GAR 0.1, SH GAR -0.3, PEN GAR 3.2
xGPM/60, -0.155, -0.199, 0.103

Hartman - last three seasons
EV GAR 10.7, PP GAR -1.7, SH GAR 0.1, PEN GAR 3.5
xGPM/60, 0.328, -0.068, -0.180

 

[Ruck Over]

But does he bring wins?

He brings jewelry, bling is what the children refer to it as.

 

[Ruck Over]

Double posting because I don't want this work lost in a pgt in game no.81 of a lost season.

As it relates to big spending this year, the impact it may have on next year, and following there after.

So, looking to the next year, there's $15m for Panarin, goalie X, and the resigning of Vorobyev ($784k), Friedman ($750k), Hagg ($1.15m), Gudas ($3.5m), Myers ($678k), Lindblom ($925k) and Patrick ($925k). In addition to the $15m, there's $6.25m coming off the books for AMac & Schlemko. We'll be conservative and knock off $3m (as not to be cap strapped, unforeseen rookies and bonuses, rounding errors, etc.), so there's $18.25m for our guys and Panarin*. The contracts of the players mentioned are also coming off the books, assuming they all get raises, they nibble at the kitty and retain what they already have.

Vorobyev - still needs to prove he belongs, is threatened to get passed. classic bridge deal - 3 yrs, $1m/per (-$216k from kitty)
Friedman - will hopefully struggle to crack NHL squad, maybe a 7th D kinda guy, classic bridge deal - 2 years, $1.25/per (-$500k)
Hagg - in a world where the Flyers like him, but he hasn't earned much, same deal + 10% - 2 years, $1.265 (-$155k)
Gudas - I like him for what he is, others not so much, I doubt he's still here, but gonna resign him cause #reasons, 15% raise - 3 years, $3.85/per (-$500k)
Myers - first difficult one, at this time, has a season and a quarter under his belt, let's say he looks good but still paying for potential instead of results, do you bridge or commit?, RHD = commit - 6 years, $3.9/per (-$3.3m)
Lindblom - hopefully he continues to project as a poor man's Stone, so a raise is due, but there's a lot of winger prospects and he may be replaceable/tradeable, he get's a bridge - 2 years, $2.75m/per (-$1.825m)
Patrick - the toughest one yet, paying for results?, paying for promise?, if he's our real two C we want him locked up, but if we do and he's not, that's hellish to bear, if we hope he projects like Coots did, we'll pay him like we paid Coots, this is so we can get Panarin now, Frost better hit - 2 years, $3.6m/per (-$2.675m)

Ok, all of the internal Flyers/prospects of note (no action on Alex Lyon) have been taken care of for the 2019-20 off-season. The sum of resigning our own guys (Hagg, Gudas likely gone) comes to $8.671m. From our kitty of $21.25m, we took off $3m just for #reasons, leaving us $18.25m. If everything goes to my plan, which why wouldn't it?, that leaves us $9.579m to sign Panarin this off-season. The current upper-limit is $79.5m. Next year it's estimated to be $83m. The Flyers just found an extra $3.5m in cap dollars per my example! The 20% limit on player contracts comes in at $16.6m, which no one is getting. So, there's a hypothetical extra ($3m -voluntary omission + $3.5m - rising cap) $6.5m the Flyers could massage into the left-over $9.579m for a total of $16.079m unallocated dollars for 2019-20. $521k short of the super-max, but well within reason to sign Panarin/(Karlsson) if he'd be willing. I'd expect Panarin to sign for closer to the 12-14% of cap, $9.96m - $11.62m.

So, what was this pointless exercise for- a) I can maths, 2: Panarin is affordable without wrecking the team moving forward, especially if the prospects we have are worth anything, and this includes keeping Voracek

 

[FlyerNutter]

Love you, but holy shit that was intense haha ^

 

[baudib1]

Depends on the contract, & he’s a fallback from Duchene, but he’s crazy underrated the way he gets scoffed at by some posters as a potential signing.

Brock Nelson is 37th in the entire NHL in ES goals over the last 5 seasons.

No, just no. Hard pass.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Nelson - last three seasons
EV GAR 8.8, PP GAR 0.1, SH GAR -0.3, PEN GAR 3.2
xGPM/60, -0.155, -0.199, 0.103

Hartman - last three seasons
EV GAR 10.7, PP GAR -1.7, SH GAR 0.1, PEN GAR 3.5
xGPM/60, 0.328, -0.068, -0.180

Are you contending that Ryan Hartman is a better even strength goal scorer than Brock Nelson, who is 37th in the league in ES goals over the last 5 seasons?

 

[Tripod]

Nelson is still just a 20g+20a guy....yet he will be looking for 5 million since he just his his career year of 52 points.

Someone else will overpay.

 

[magnumpi]

Q is the biggest name coach in the sport since Bowman retired, people know who he is. He brings instant credibility.

The average Harvey Snotgrass bozo who listens to sports talk and gets drunk at the bar has no clue about Coach Q.

PS - Harvey Snotgrass was a name used by Steve Fredericks to designate the average run of the mill nobody

 

[Magua]

Nelson is still just a 20g+20a guy....yet he will be looking for 5 million since he just his his career year of 52 points.

Someone else will overpay.

Over the last 4 years for Nelson:

1.73 5v5 p/60
-1.8 relCF%
-2.0 relxGF%​

Patrick this season:

1.66 5v5 p/60
-1.6 relCF%
+1.86 relxGF%​

One player is a UFA having a career year entering his age 28 season. The other is a still developing 20 year old, #2 overall pick on his ELC.

Does the former, in his prime years, look like a notable improvement over the latter TODAY, let alone projecting growth? Someone worth a long-term commitment at market price? The difference between a Stanley Cup 2C and not? I guess I'm just a "scoffer," but Nelson looks like a textbook mid-tier UFA overpay signing you avoid, who likely regresses back to his 35-45 point self. He's not a contending 2C any way you slice it, even with a career year. But if you're someone who endlessly complains about Patrick, I can see how it makes sense.

 

[deadhead]

I'm contending there's not enough difference between Hartman and Nelson to justify paying Nelson serious money.

Last three years:
Nelson ES 18-18 36 E +/- -6.2, -12.9, +2.9, CorsiRel -3.1, -2.7, -0.7, ES minutes 13:09, 12:14, 14:46
Hartman ES 13-15 28 E +/- +7.1, -1.5, -7.6, CorsiRel +2.6, -0.1, -1.2

Nelson is three years older (turns 28 in Oct), what you see is all you'll probably get.
He's improved under Trotz, but he's still a 3rd line forward who's decent offensively and mediocre at best defensively.
He's a LH center, who probably isn't as good at center as Frost will be as a rookie.

Yes, Nelson is better than Hartman and Laughton, he's a better LW than he is center, similar to Laughton.
But he's not good enough to justify more than a 3 year deal or $4-5M or so a year. And he's not a good fit here.
He's not going to beat out Giroux, Lindblom or JVR at LW, so one would have to move to RW to make room.

 

[deadhead]

It's simple, either sign a FA forward good enough to play in the top 6, or sign one on a short-term deal to upgrade the bottom six and buy time for Farabee/Rubtsov next year.
But signing a 3rd line caliber forward to 2nd line money is just a waste of cap space.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm contending there's not enough difference between Hartman and Nelson to justify paying Nelson serious money.

Last three years:
Nelson ES 18-18 36 E +/- -6.2, -12.9, +2.9, CorsiRel -3.1, -2.7, -0.7, ES minutes 13:09, 12:14, 14:46
Hartman ES 13-15 28 E +/- +7.1, -1.5, -7.6, CorsiRel +2.6, -0.1, -1.2

Nelson is three years older (turns 28 in Oct), what you see is all you'll probably get.
He's improved under Trotz, but he's still a 3rd line forward who's decent offensively and mediocre at best defensively.
He's a LH center, who probably isn't as good at center as Frost will be as a rookie.

Yes, Nelson is better than Hartman and Laughton, he's a better LW than he is center, similar to Laughton.
But he's not good enough to justify more than a 3 year deal or $4-5M or so a year. And he's not a good fit here.
He's not going to beat out Giroux, Lindblom or JVR at LW, so one would have to move to RW to make room.

If your usage of stats indicates there isn't much difference between Hartman and Nelson then your usage of stats is terrible.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Brock Nelson is a better player than Hartman. But I would rather not get into a bidding war for him.

 

[baudib1]

Textbook overpay is exactly what Nelson is. He's what we've mostly been saying all year that we don't want, a middling middle 6er who doesn't move the needle and blocks are prospects for years.

Nelson will get 5 years $30M, conservatively and very likely be a healthy scratch by year 4 for whoever he signs with.