Salary Cap: 2019-20 - Leafs Salary Cap issues and adjustments?

[4thline]

OK, that's a good point.

So by adding another team, about 3% of additional HRR is added, assuming all other HRR contributing factors remain the same (i.e., don't go down). Reasonable?

What's happening now? HRR growth seems to slowing down given recent news.

Really depends on the success of the team. We know HRR isn't generated equally by all teams but sure for the sake of argument call it 3%. But that's 3% in addition to the year over year organic 2-5% (you and argue whether it's true organic growth or just inflationary increase, doesn't really matter as it pertains to the cap), plus the tv deal coming up.

When people talk about future cap increases they're talking about all 3, and to some extent the potential of them compounding each other (growth of the game and all that jazz).

That only 1 is happening in a year where only one is scheduled to happen isn't really a mind blowing realization.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Really depends on the success of the team. We know HRR isn't generated equally by all teams but sure for the sake of argument call it 3%. But that's 3% in addition to the year over year organic 2-5% (you and argue whether it's true organic growth or just inflationary increase, doesn't really matter as it pertains to the cap), plus the tv deal coming up.

When people talk about future cap increases they're talking about all 3, and to some extent the potential of them compounding each other (growth of the game and all that jazz).

That only 1 is happening in a year where only one is scheduled to happen isn't really a mind blowing realization.

I'm not sure we can assume that the year-over-year growth expectation is automatic ....... See #985.

After years of growth, how does one simply assume that it won't slow down like a lot of other things do e.g., stock market?

 

[4thline]

I'm not sure we can assume that the year-over-year growth expectation as automatic ....... See #985.

After years of growth, how does one simply assume that it won't slow down like a lot of other things do e.g., stock market?

Because in large part that rate is just price increases, and any major slow down would require actual retraction in terms of volume at the gate and merchandise. It's already down at a sustainable long term growth level, projecting things to continue at 2-5% before expansion and TV increases isn't exactly betting on Tech start ups.

If you want play Nostradamus about an impending retraction and large scale upheaval in the NHL that flies in the face of almost all major projections there might be some takers in the business forum, but in this context it's pretty much chicken littling.

A disappointing increase to 81.5 is still 2.5%

 

[Mess]

I also wonder and think about why this is happening?

Is there a trend here, or is it just a one-year phenomena? Is HRR growth slowing down?

Will HRR keep increasing year after year forever, or is HRR like the stock market where you can expect some downward cycles sooner or later and especially after several years of nice growth?

Here is the bottom line..

The 7 Canadian teams account for about 1/2 the HRR generated in comparison to the 24 USA based teams.

1/2 the Canadian teams didn't make the playoffs and the other 3 Toronto, Winnipeg and Calgary all lost in the 1st round. Interest in the outcome with the highest HHR driving teams out impacts league hockey related revenue. Toss is a weaken Canadian $ in exchange rate to US$ (ie 25 cents on the dollar) and you have your answer.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Because in large part that rate is just price increases, and any major slow down would require actual retraction in terms of volume at the gate and merchandise. It's already down at a sustainable long term growth level, projecting things to continue at 2-5% before expansion and TV increases isn't exactly betting on Tech start ups.

If you want play Nostradamus about an impending retraction and large scale upheaval in the NHL that flies in the face of almost all major projections there might be some takers in the business forum, but in this context it's pretty much chicken littling.

A disappointing increase to 81.5 is still 2.5%

Are there macro economic factors that could impact ticket & jersey sales e.g. change (downward turn) in the economy? What about currency calculations?

I'd think its more economics rather than Nostradamus & chicken little, but I appreciate your attempt at personal denigration on a discussion board.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Here is the bottom line..

The 7 Canadian teams account for about 1/2 the HRR generated in comparison to the 24 USA based teams.

1/2 the Canadian teams didn't make the playoffs and the other 3 Toronto, Winnipeg and Calgary all lost in the 1st round. Interest in the outcome with the highest HHR driving teams out impacts league hockey related revenue. Toss is a weaken Canadian $ in exchange rate to US$ (ie 25 cents on the dollar) and you have your answer.

So, could another drop in the Canadian economy (i.e., tariff wars) have any impact? What about a drop in the U.S. economy (e.g., a change in the party in power and then a roll back of tax decreases, decrease in GDP, etc.)?

 

[4thline]

Are there nomacro economic factors that could impact ticket & jersey sales e.g. change (downward turn) in the economy? What about currency calculations?

I'd think its more economics rather than Nostradamus & chicken little, but I appreciate your attempt at personal denigration on a discussion board.

From 13-14 to 14-15 7.3%
From 14-15 to 15-16 3.5%
From 15-16 to 16-17 2.2%
From 16-17 to 17-18 2.7%
From 17-18 to 18-19 6% (Expansion Impact)
From 18-19 to 20-21 2.5-4.4%

What here suggests that bringing up that expansion (that hasn't happened yet) didn't bring up revenues and calling a within normal range yearly increase a sign of a downward trend in the context of a Marner signing anything other than chicken littling?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

From 13-14 to 14-15 7.3%
From 14-15 to 15-16 3.5%
From 15-16 to 16-17 2.2%
From 16-17 to 17-18 2.7%
From 17-18 to 18-19 6% (Expansion Impact)
From 18-19 to 20-21 2.5-4.4%

What here suggests that bringing up that expansion (that hasn't happened yet) didn't bring up revenues and calling a within normal range yearly increase a sign of a downward trend in the context of a Marner signing anything other than chicken littling?

Your posts are difficult to read, so not even sure I know what point you are trying to make. Again, I think that macro-economics can have an impact on discretionary spending which NHL ticket & revenue is for many fans & people in general.

If the cap goes up less next year, then there definitely is an impact on what money we have to sign players in general including Marner.

The discussion on whether or not the cap will continue to increase at the same rate (or each & every year, year-after-year) is just a subject I found interesting & thought the subject might formulate an interesting discussion on a discussion board. No need for your character assassination.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Here is the bottom line..

The 7 Canadian teams account for about 1/2 the HRR generated in comparison to the 24 USA based teams.

1/2 the Canadian teams didn't make the playoffs and the other 3 Toronto, Winnipeg and Calgary all lost in the 1st round. Interest in the outcome with the highest HHR driving teams out impacts league hockey related revenue. Toss is a weaken Canadian $ in exchange rate to US$ (ie 25 cents on the dollar) and you have your answer.

It is also why Rogers had terrible Canadian TV numbers for the playoffs. Toronto virtually turned off the NHL playoffs. It became a Raptors city. Canadians all know it has been since 1993 when Bettman took over since a Canadian team won a Cup. At some point the NHL will kill the goose with the golden eggs. It is in progress.

 

[4thline]

Your posts are difficult to read, so not even sure I know what point you are trying to make. Again, I think that macro-economics can have an impact on discretionary spending which NHL ticket & revenue is for many fans & people in general.

If the cap goes up less next year, then there definitely is an impact on what money we have to sign players in general including Marner.

The discussion on whether or not the cap will continue to increase at the same rate (or each & every year, year-after-year) is just a subject I found interesting & thought the subject might formulate an interesting discussion on a discussion board. No need for your character assassination.

The point is that based on recent years there is nothing to suggest that this years cap increase is anything out of the ordinary, or the start of a downward trend. You pulled a reason for negativity out of thin air when the expansion angle was shown to be a non-starter.

Open ended macroeconomic discussion that isn't grounded on anything other than the premise "what if something -anything- bad happens" isn't really that interesting on a LEAFS discussion board.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Here is the bottom line..

The 7 Canadian teams account for about 1/2 the HRR generated in comparison to the 24 USA based teams.

1/2 the Canadian teams didn't make the playoffs and the other 3 Toronto, Winnipeg and Calgary all lost in the 1st round. Interest in the outcome with the highest HHR driving teams out impacts league hockey related revenue. Toss is a weaken Canadian $ in exchange rate to US$ (ie 25 cents on the dollar) and you have your answer.

Those things could happen again it would seem. There are more American teams than Canadian afterall (24 vs. 7), and currency fluctuations happen rather frequently.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Maple Leafs solve a lot of problems by trading Patrick Marleau | The Star

The Leafs have $13.5 million in room and 16 players under contract, according to Capfriendly.com — after the league announced a lower-than-expected cap of $81.5 million per team for next season.

They can add $5.3 million of Nathan Horton’s salary once he goes on long-term injured reserve — and for that matter some of Zach Hyman’s $2.25 million as well, if he needs to go on the long-term list while recovering from a torn ACL.

That’s around $20 million, which should be enough to sign all of those problem restricted free agents who deserve big raises: Marner in the $10-million neighbourhood, with Kapanen and Johnsson at $3 million to $3.5 million annually on multi-year deals.

“We’re very close,” Dubas said of deals for Johnsson and Kapanen. “They’re at the finish line. Just have to punch them across.”
Dubas, however, didn’t sound hopeful that there would be enough money to keep defenceman Jake Gardiner, who becomes an unrestricted free agent July 1.

“We still don’t have that amount, but we love Jake,” said Dubas. “Until we solve Mitch’s situation, it’s impossible to engage with anybody.”

Marner is the focus, in terms of dollar value and length of contract. His camp has pointed at Matthews’ deal, worth $11.634 million per season, while the Leafs are believed to want Marner at under $10 million — more in line with the $9.5-million salary of the Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov, the Hart Trophy winner.