Speculation: 2019-20 Anaheim Ducks Roster Discussion Part IIII

[KyleJRM]

Perry is 34. Fowler is 27.

 

[Paul4587]

It’s going to happen. Fowler post expansion draft doesn’t have a place on the team anymore( especially now that his value is increasing A lil bit again) I see him as the next Corey Perry as far as “ team going in another direction and we need to let some of our younger dmen earn a spot etcc

Fowler is beloved by the FO and is signed for another 7 seasons. He has his flaws but is still a very good dman and nobody coming through the system has anywhere near the upside Cam has, why exactly are they moving on from him?

 

[bsu]

The problem with our D is none of our defensemen are really good defensively (other than Lindholm), and none of our defensemen are really good offensively. They are just there and decent in all areas.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The problem with our D is none of our defensemen are really good defensively (other than Lindholm), and none of our defensemen are really good offensively. They are just there and decent in all areas.

Risto would give us an offensive weapon, that can play physical... which should be an ideal partner for fowler.

Risto/Fowler have their short comings defensively, but theyd get mins better for their game play with Lindholm/Manson taking much of the hard mins.

That leaves

Larsson/MDZ + Gudbranson which could ideally take some of the hard mins/pk mins off Lindholm and manson.

 

[Leonardo87]

Fowler is still a good player... and fits the teams future plans imo…. Unless Mahura/Larsson/Guhle pass fowler up... I doubt we move him.

But that being said id love to see
Lindholm Manson
Fowler Risto
Larsson Gudbranson

I agree about Fowler and he is having a strong season so far, even with the extra role/mins put on him due to the injuries. I think he will be here as long as he keeps playing like this or close to it.

That Top 4 you posted, is a solid D, that can compete in this league. Add a Gibson on his game, and now just have to hope the young forward group develops and take the next step while the vets like Getz, Silf, and Rakell continue to have a good season.

I want to send that proposal you made in the main forums to both GMs. Lol.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I agree about Fowler and he is having a strong season so far, even with the extra role/mins put on him due to the injuries. I think he will be here as long as he keeps playing like this or close to it.

That Top 4 you posted, is a solid D, that can compete in this league. Add a Gibson on his game, and now just have to hope the young forward group develops and take the next step while the vets like Getz, Silf, and Rakell continue to have a good season.

I want to send that proposal you made in the main forums to both GMs. Lol.

Risto for Kase
conditional 3rd to Buffalo, if kase misses 10 games, playoffs included(in buffalo)
Conditional 3rd to Anaheim, If kase scores 30 goals, playoffs included(total for season)

If both conditions occur, the 3rds stay put.

that one? lol

 

[Leonardo87]

Risto for Kase
conditional 3rd to Buffalo, if kase misses 10 games, playoffs included(in buffalo)
Conditional 3rd to Anaheim, If kase scores 30 goals, playoffs included(total for season)

If both conditions occur, the 3rds stay put.

that one? lol

LOL, yeah. It gives both teams some insurance and if both players fulfill their potential needed then its a win win trade.

 

[Deuce22]

I have been interested watching the way the organization is handling the development of Duck forward prospects. Decided to compare their Duck careers (so far) to see if anything jumps out.

Player Age Games Goals Assists +/- PPG
Jones 21 53 5 5 -1 0.18
Comtois 20 23 4 8 +3 0.52
Terry 22 61 7 12 +3 0.31
Sprong 22 47 14 5 -9 0.40
Steel 21 46 8 13 -5 0.46

Jones and Comtois have been bounced around quite a bit, both in who they have played with on Ducks and back and forth to SD. Terry seems to have a permanent roster spot, a set PP spot, and is in the lineup every night. Sprong is (supposedly) working on his defensive game on the third line in SD. Steel, since returning from injury is a fixture, but still looking for set line mates.

It seems as if the organization see Steel and Terry as core pieces. Not sure about Sprong, if he is in the doghouse or if they just want him to round out his game. Comtois and Jones are not set in any role as yet.

I still think Comtois is the best of the bunch.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Perry is 34. Fowler is 27.

& Perry is averaging less than half a point per game & his goals per game rate is at an all time low of 0.14 which is the worse goal scoring rate of his career
Corey Perry Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[robbieboy3686]

That forward help might just be Zegras

Getzlaf showing that he may have this year at least left to be dangerous. And with a wide open western Conference. He will improve now

 

[robbieboy3686]

Fowler is beloved by the FO and is signed for another 7 seasons. He has his flaws but is still a very good dman and nobody coming through the system has anywhere near the upside Cam has, why exactly are they moving on from him?

If he had been named at very least alt captain I would agree. But the moment he wasn’t he’s as good as gone imo

 

[bsu]

We could really use a offensive right handed defensemen right now.............

 

[robbieboy3686]

We could really use a offensive right handed defensemen right now.............

Yes, one that plays some defense also and isn’t complained about by every partner on the team( Montour isn’t missed ) imo the complaints about him being a tough fit probably also have to do with off ice stuff ( it always felt that way)

 

[bsu]

The fit was more with the coach than the players. I would bet on it. If eakins coached last year Montour would still be a duck I have no doubt in my mind.

 

[bumperkisser]

Risto for Kase
conditional 3rd to Buffalo, if kase misses 10 games, playoffs included(in buffalo)
Conditional 3rd to Anaheim, If kase scores 30 goals, playoffs included(total for season)

If both conditions occur, the 3rds stay put.

that one? lol

We would need to significantly add to Kase to get risto imo. In no world is Kase worth risto unless Kase has 0 injury concerns

 

[robbieboy3686]

We would need to significantly add to Kase to get risto imo. In no world is Kase worth risto unless Kase has 0 injury concerns

Or something like Ritchie + larsson

 

[Hey234]

We would need to significantly add to Kase to get risto imo. In no world is Kase worth risto unless Kase has 0 injury concerns

I agree. Ristolainen has 4 consecutive seasons of scoring at least 40 points, is 25, and has 3 years left at 5.4. He won't come cheap. A Kase+ trade is tough. He has never hit 40 points and has injury issues. The value gap is pretty wide. I like Kase and think he's a great player, but the + on a deal would probably be bigger than most would like.

 

[Paul4587]

If he had been named at very least alt captain I would agree. But the moment he wasn’t he’s as good as gone imo

You’re way overlooking who wears the A’s. What has that got to do with him being moved? He has been wearing an A some of the time since Manson has been hurt anyway.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

BM coached 26 games for a 14-11-1 record good for 29 points and finished 6th in the pacific.

Max Jones played in 26 of them. (23 in ‘19-20)
Troy Terry played played in 22 of them. (27 in ‘19-20)
Sam Steel played in 9 of them. (24 in ‘19-20)

This year the team, with essentially the same forward lineup (more Kase, less Perry), and a substantially worse defense, is 12-12-4 for 28 points in 28 games.

Similar rosters (charitably), similar reliance on rookies, similar results.

The only thing that’s despicable is BM not canning RC after the Sharks series and wasting last year. This is what a rookie reliant team looks like.

2018-19 Ducks season
Coach	Year	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF	GF/G	Rank	GA	GA/G	Rank
Bob	2018-19	26	14	11	1	29		72	2.77	21st	69	2.65	5th
Eakins	2019-20	26	11	11	4	26		71	2.73	23rd	79	3.04	18th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

At the 26 game mark, Eakins is slightly behind. Granted, Lindholm was missing for 7 games and that matters. Without Lindholm and Manson (11 games played together), our GA/G is miserable. In that respect, Eakins keeping the team afloat missing its two of its top pairing defensemen is significant. Then again, Eakins is riding off of what Murray created last year in his defensive scheme. (Thank goodness for retaining the assistant coaches to make the transition not as difficult.)

This is a good comp and not having your top pairing defensemen set can skew the end production. Yet, we're dealing with year two of Steel, Terry, Jones, Guhle, and Larsson with Eakins. So there's good and bad early this season.

Special Teams Comp, 26 games
Coach	Year	PPG	PPO	PP Eff	Rank		SHG	TSH	PK Eff	Rank
Bob	2018-19	14	64	21.9%	8th		18	89	79.8%	19th
Eakins	2019-20	7	68	10.3%	30th		20	86	76.7%	22nd

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We're abysmal on the PP under Eakins. Eakins is a -13 special teams goal differential compared to -4 special teams goal differential under Murray. That's a production that is unacceptable.

Even Strength Comp, 26 games
Coach	Year	ES GF	ES GA	ES Goal Diff
Bob	2018-19	58	51	7
Eakins	2019-20	64	59	5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

All this season, I've been hearing how the team has been good at Even Strength. It must be nice to have all those layers to get to through to our netminders. I was surprised to see a Murray led team also be good at ES after seeing how much better it was on the PP. Again, this year's team was without a top d-man in Lindholm. (I've done splits of without Manson and without Lindholm-Manson. It's not a significant difference: Manson-Linhdolm 2.18 GAA vs Lindholm 2.27 GAA). Without Lindholm, the team is a sieve.

Once Lindholm and Manson are paired again, that ES goal differential may rise.

The three ducklings

2018-19 (26 games under Murray)
Player	Games	G	A	Pts	Pts/g
Steel	9	5	3	8	0.89
Terry	22	3	8	11	0.50
Jones	26	2	3	5	0.19

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are game productions played under Murray as head coach. Steel and Terry were up with the NHL club on their second stint.

2019-20 (28 games played by Ducks)
Player	Games	G	A	Pts	Pts/g
Steel	24	2	8	10	0.42
Terry	27	3	3	6	0.22
Jones	23	3	2	5	0.22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It appears as though both Steel and Terry aren't producing like they were last year. The only player who played similarly was Jones, but he was also snake bitten last year. If we include Comtois, then even he has taken a sophomore slump (10 games, 7 points last year; 13 games, 5 points this year).

Youth reliant?

• Youth goal/total goals under Murray: 10/72, or 13.8%. (3 forwards)
• Youth goal/total goals under Eakins: 10/71, or 14.0% (4 forwards)

Again, I'm quite surprised with the stats I research. The goal production is akin to last year's productions. So the reliance on the kids producing more doesn't seem much of a reliance based upon end production. But Steel, Terry, and Comtois have all taken a step back individually. Jones remained the same player.

In Summary

A 26-game comp between Murray and Eakins reveals we're scoring similarly, but worse off defensively and on the PP. We do have a silver lining such that when both Lindholm and Manson are healthy, our defense improves significantly. Just having Lindholm healthy also improves our defense significantly. The kids are going through a sophomoric slump, but their goal production rate ran similar to last year's production rate. We can improve defensively when we get healthy players returning and the talent is better this year with the addition of Gudz. What we probably are incapable of fixing is our PP efficiency.

The Ducks were set up to win high scoring games. They're designed to play an efficient, layered defense with timely scoring. And not clicking on the PP will hurt us tremendously.

Ducks Top Pairing Comparison
Subject	Games	GF	GA	Goal Diff		GF/G	GA/G	Diff
Total	28	75	84	-9		2.68	3.00	-0.32
With Lind, Man	11	25	24	1		2.27	2.18	0.09
W/o Lind, Man	17	50	60	-10		2.94	3.53	-0.59

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With Lindholm-Manson, we were 6-5-0. Without them both, we're 6-7-4. Our PP efficiency in those 11 games was at 7.4% (worse than it is now) and our PK efficiency was 83.8% (which was better then).

With just Lindholm, we are 10-8-2. Without Lindholm, we're 2-4-2.

If we're to be a playoff team, then we're going to have to rely on the health of our defensemen. Should the PP improve to be an average unit, then we will win even more games (but I'm very doubtful of that). We're sitting at the edge of the the playoffs this early into the season. Manson is hoping to return at the end of the week at the earliest. His return could spell into more wins.

We're surviving because of what Murray implemented last year defensively. Sadly, Eakins' offensive acumen hasn't paid off on the PP or with the kids (the ones he's been coaching down at the AHL and now are at the NHL level). Murray will give Eakins a long leash b/c that's Murray. Sure, we can hate that RC was fired too late, but Murray likes giving out long leashes (we didn't send down Sprong during Murray's tenure as coach).

I feel better and worse at the same time after writing this up. LoL We go as far as the health of Lindholm and Manson.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Yes, one that plays some defense also and isn’t complained about by every partner on the team( Montour isn’t missed ) imo the complaints about him being a tough fit probably also have to do with off ice stuff ( it always felt that way)

Montour with the Sabers this year has a record of 4-7-3. All this hype about "needing" Monty, but does he really move the needle for the team? Without Monty, the Sabres were 9-3-2.

I just did a review of the Ducks so far in a different thread. The way we're set up, we're far better off hoping Manson returns sooner than grab a defenseman who doesn't play defense well. Our defense is one of the main reasons why we're still in the playoff hunt thus far.

With Lindholm, we're 10-8-2. Without Lindholm, we're 2-4-2.
With Manson-Lindholm, we're 6-5. Without Manson, we're 6-7-4.

 

[mightyquack]

Imagine thinking Montour being in the line up has anything to do with the Sabres struggling. It's about as worthless as mentioning BM's record as coach last year over and over again as if it means something.

 

[Leonardo87]

Want to see how they are when Manson is back. Those goals against numbers are ridiculously higher without him. Obviously Lindholm made his presence known by picking up 3 helpers last game.

As much as I would love to see that RHD upgrade and is needed, they are not under the gun to do it right away given the direction of this season.

As per the PP, if that last PP has any indication of how it will be then I’m starting to feel optimistic. Take more shots and one timers with a goalie being screened will get it done. This personnel is talented enough to get the PP back up between 15-20%. I’m happy Eakins has at least been shaking things up and trying to work it out.

 

[Exit Dose]

Imagine thinking Montour being in the line up has anything to do with the Sabres struggling. It's about as worthless as mentioning BM's record as coach last year over and over again as if it means something.

Advanced Stats

 

[Deuce22]

Imagine thinking Montour being in the line up has anything to do with the Sabres struggling. It's about as worthless as mentioning BM's record as coach last year over and over again as if it means something.

What meant something is that RC was no longer there.

 

[Ducks DVM]

We're surviving because of what Murray implemented last year defensively.

You keep saying this for some odd reason. Did you not watch the team at the start of the season? They are playing a completely different system when healthy. In addition, BM didn’t implement a brand new system, it was pretty much what RC used to run prior to ‘18-19. Playing a conservative style defense isn’t BM wizardry, it’s simply all you can do when the skill set of your defensemen is largely limited to “chip it out/rim it out”.