Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Senators prospect watch part II

[starling]

****, he better not be. I wanna go to Belleville on Saturday night for the game.

Might be cheaper to see him today in Kanata

 

[Xspyrit]

I keep seeing everyone ranking Gus above Hogberg. I'm not so sure anymore. Hogberg has been a beast. We might have something special in him.

Gus is almost 4 years younger...

 

[Daffy]

Gus is almost 4 years younger...

I know but goalies take longer to develop. Hopefully Gus turns out awesome but who knows at this point. Right know, Hogberg looks to be an NHLer.

 

[IlTerrifico]

To peg Lajoie as only a #5 at age 21 is a little crazy. He has all the tools to be a 3-4 and a very good one.

Displays all the shortcomings that make Ceci such a gong show; gets caught flat-footed, makes poor reads, soft as a marshmallow. Very few pushovers can make up for that lack of contain by doing other things. Pass.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I keep seeing everyone ranking Gus above Hogberg. I'm not so sure anymore. Hogberg has been a beast. We might have something special in him.

Gus is significantly younger so it's hard to compare them 1-1. Hog has been a beast of late though and is having a great year overall. 5th in the AHL in GAA and 9th in sv%. I won't be surprised if he finishes top 5 in both categories.

I wouldn't mind him backing up in Ottaws next year be it for Anderson or Nilsson with a 60-40ish split.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Numbers are the most objective way to compare them and Chabot is clearly better than Lajoie but no one knew before this year that Chabot was a sure fire #1. To peg Lajoie as only a #5 at age 21 is a little crazy. He has all the tools to be a 3-4 and a very good one.

Lajoie is too small and not good enough defensively to be much more than 5 in my mind.

If he was an offensive dynamo his defensive game wouldn't hold him back.

 

[Micklebot]

did? I might be the only one who think Turris, Bowers, a 1st and 3rd for a player of Duchene caliber is not that high... Maybe I don't have a big opinion on Bowers (I'd have him 16th or 17th in our current pool) and I also think signing Turris 6-7 years (starting at age 29) at like ~6.5 per would have been a mistake, even if I really liked the guy. I don't mind the 3rd and could live with the 1st if it was outside of the top-15.

Sure in hindsight it backfired but we know it's because ownership is not committed to winning.

Part of why i didn't like the trade is that i had Turris pegged as a 55 to 65 pts center and Duchene a 60 to 70 maybe 75 pts center. Turris being a bit better defensively too. Duchene has exceeded my expectations so with the benefit of hindsight I'd be ok with the trade had we re-signed him and the pick not been a top 5 pick.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Part of why i didn't like the trade is that i had Turris pegged as a 55 to 65 pts center and Duchene a 60 to 70 maybe 75 pts center. Turris being a bit better defensively too. Duchene has exceeded my expectations so with the benefit of hindsight I'd be ok with the trade had we re-signed him and the pick not been a top 5 pick.

Agreed 100%... the only reason the Duchene trade was bad was because we horribly misidentified how good we were as a team AND we constantly, aggressively made our team worse between the time we made the trade and the time that the payout ends (i.e day 1 of this years upcoming draft)... I do think that had we held onto EK and dealt with the Hoffman situation more proactively we could have at the very least retained some of our guys (EK/Stone/Duch/Dzingel) and we would have been a much better team this season

Gus is significantly younger so it's hard to compare them 1-1. Hog has been a beast of late though and is having a great year overall. 5th in the AHL in GAA and 9th in sv%. I won't be surprised if he finishes top 5 in both categories.

I wouldn't mind him backing up in Ottaws next year be it for Anderson or Nilsson with a 60-40ish split.

Yes, it's time for Hog to be given a real shot. Hopefully he gets a long playoff run and comes to camp next year eager to impress. He has always seemed like a potential NHLer to me, when he came over he was pretty highly touted but Belleville yr 1 was not a good environment to develop a goalie in... that plus his injury probably slowed him down a bit but I still think the ability and potential is there, and he's far from old for a goalie (especially a European one)

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Lajoie is too small and not good enough defensively to be much more than 5 in my mind.

If he was an offensive dynamo his defensive game wouldn't hold him back.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree for now.

I see a TJ Brodie type of player, in size and skill set (ceiling).

In junior he was a defensive defenseman first and foremost. Always had good skills but defensive responsibility is what he was known for. I think that once we see him away from Ceci he'll be a really good 2-way defender.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Displays all the shortcomings that make Ceci such a gong show; gets caught flat-footed, makes poor reads, soft as a marshmallow. Very few pushovers can make up for that lack of contain by doing other things. Pass.

right.. started showing all these AFTER being put with ceci… and theres one major difference... lajoie actually has flashed of legit talent..

 

[Xspyrit]

Part of why i didn't like the trade is that i had Turris pegged as a 55 to 65 pts center and Duchene a 60 to 70 maybe 75 pts center. Turris being a bit better defensively too. Duchene has exceeded my expectations so with the benefit of hindsight I'd be ok with the trade had we re-signed him and the pick not been a top 5 pick.

I see, I see. I admit that it was next to impossible to envision Turris decline that quickly. That being said, he could always rebound next year to ~ 50 pts. He's on a 40 pts pace this season.

Personally, I had Duchene as a significant upgrade even with pts being close in the recent past. But it's true, what happened to the team (now Duchene is gone and we'll give a top-4 pick to the Avs) has totally blew up in our faces (I'm holding Melnyk mainly responsible for this)

Agreed 100%... the only reason the Duchene trade was bad was because we horribly misidentified how good we were as a team AND we constantly, aggressively made our team worse between the time we made the trade and the time that the payout ends (i.e day 1 of this years upcoming draft)... I do think that had we held onto EK and dealt with the Hoffman situation more proactively we could have at the very least retained some of our guys (EK/Stone/Duch/Dzingel) and we would have been a much better team this season.

Moot point, it's not because EK "wanted" to leave that we went through a firesale. It's a business decision that Melnyk made a while ago. Yes they were trying to sign guys but that had to be on "Ottawa's terms", which can't compete with most other teams.

The team was still good when the Duchene trade was made, they won their first 2 games with him and were 8-3-5 (not sexy but that's a possible 21 pts on 32, 108 pts pace), it's when they came back from Sweden that everything felt apart. Problem is that the coaching staff had no answer to turn things around, players quickly lost faith in that complicated system and the season spiraled into darkness. There was also 2 major holes who were never filled (Methot and MacArthur), Phaneuf declined, Karlsson was really bad defensively because of his surgery, etc; goalies were awful so the team couldn't defend. And they weren't scoring enough because they were trying to not get scored too much (which didn't work). Every time we'd take a lead, we went into a shell to get crushed, a bit like this year. It's like Boucher really can't play with a lead.

Duchene is 2 years younger and significantly better than Turris, it's exactly the move you need to make (upgrade) is you want to reach another level. But others moves around weren't made and the coaching staff plus goaltending wasn't at the level needed. You need to invest a lot of money if you want to compete year after year in the NHL.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Gus is almost 4 years younger...

Reminds me of when everyone was going crazy over Jonathan Bernier and Quick was seen nothing more than a placeholder until he's ready, and everyone kept referencing the age gap until Quick kept winning, lol.

 

[R2010]

Reminds me of when everyone was going crazy over Jonathan Bernier and Quick was seen nothing more than a placeholder until he's ready, and everyone kept referencing the age gap until Quick kept winning, lol.

Yeah i'm not sure why people wrote off Hogberg so quick. Last year was clearly chaotic and he did really well in the SHL which is a tough league. Clearly tons of talent.

 

[R2010]

Here's my top 15 prospects list for the Sens currently.
I've used the system type like NHL19 just for fun in terms of potential. For example, the first variable is the peak potential and the probability of reaching peak is the second variable (High, Medium, Low).

Top 15 Prospects
1. Brannstrom (Elite D- Med)
2. Batherson (Elite F- Low)
3. Brown (Top 6 F - Med)
4. Bernard-Docker (Top 4 D - Med)
5. Formenton (Top 9 F - High)
6. Norris (Top 9 F - High)
7. Wolanin (Top 4 D - Low)
8. Chlapik (Top 6 F - Low)
9. Jaros (Top 6 D - High)
10. Balcers (Top 9 F - High)
11. Lajoie (Top 6 D - High)
12. Abramov (Top 9 F - Med)
13. Davidsson (Top 9 F - Med)
14. Crookshank (Top 9 F - N/A)
15. Tychonick (Top 6 D - N/A)

Did not rank goaltenders. I spent many years as a goaltender but it is so difficult to reliably rank them. I thought for sure O'Connor had a great chance of being an NHLer for example.

What does the above mean in terms of our prospect pool? We have loads of depth but need more reliably high end players. A high probability top 6 forward and a high probability top 4 RHD would be good to add.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yeah i'm not sure why people wrote off Hogberg so quick. Last year was clearly chaotic and he did really well in the SHL which is a tough league. Clearly tons of talent.

He was arguably best goalie in all of SHL, he was legitttt. Now he's proving why again.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Here's my top 15 prospects list for the Sens currently.
I've used the system type like NHL19 just for fun in terms of potential. For example, the first variable is the peak potential and the probability of reaching peak is the second variable (High, Medium, Low).

Top 15 Prospects
1. Brannstrom (Elite D- Med)
2. Batherson (Elite F- Low)
3. Brown (Top 6 F - Med)
4. Bernard-Docker (Top 4 D - Med)
5. Formenton (Top 9 F - High)
6. Norris (Top 9 F - High)
7. Wolanin (Top 4 D - Low)
8. Chlapik (Top 6 F - Low)
9. Jaros (Top 6 D - High)
10. Balcers (Top 9 F - High)
11. Lajoie (Top 6 D - High)
12. Abramov (Top 9 F - Med)
13. Davidsson (Top 9 F - Med)
14. Crookshank (Top 9 F - N/A)
15. Tychonick (Top 6 D - N/A)

Did not rank goaltenders. I spent many years as a goaltender but it is so difficult to reliably rank them. I thought for sure O'Connor had a great chance of being an NHLer for example.

What does the above mean in terms of our prospect pool? We have loads of depth but need more reliably high end players. A high probability top 6 forward and a high probability top 4 RHD would be good to add.

Pretty sweet list, I agree almost entirely. I'd switch Jaros with Lajoie, but tbh all those guys seem interchangeable. I'd notch Balcers down a bit only due to proven ability.

 

[Xspyrit]

Reminds me of when everyone was going crazy over Jonathan Bernier and Quick was seen nothing more than a placeholder until he's ready, and everyone kept referencing the age gap until Quick kept winning, lol.

Uh not sure how the conversation derailed to this but all I have said about this is the fact that Gustavsson is much younger hence why he still has time on his side. He is seen as the goalie with most upside and better credentials but I’d agree that it remains to be seen. I believe both can be good. On my list this morning, I had Gus at 15th and Hogberg at 17th; not because they’re meh prospects but because our pool is better and deeper that it ever been. So we see that I have them having similar upside at the moment

Goaltending is the position I am less wrong, ex I was not high on Hammond even during his run and was shocked instantly when I saw the Condon extension. I knew right away it was a mistake.

That being said, I am absolutely NOT writing Hogberg off, I really like him and started believing in him when he was playing in Sweden. It took some time for him to get accustomed but goalies are different.

And for the record, never been huge on Bernier but was sold instantly on Quick when I saw him play.

I have been posting here for over a decade; it should be known that I’m really not into simplistic logic like « better because younger »; for me it’s all case by case.

 

[R2010]

Pretty sweet list, I agree almost entirely. I'd switch Jaros with Lajoie, but tbh all those guys seem interchangeable. I'd notch Balcers down a bit only due to proven ability.

Yeah it's hard farther down the list to try and judge. I mean we've seen flashes from all three. Next year/this summer is going to be big for all of them. I do wonder if Lajoie really trained hard this summer if he could surprise next year.

 

[Daffy]

Here's my top 15 prospects list for the Sens currently.
I've used the system type like NHL19 just for fun in terms of potential. For example, the first variable is the peak potential and the probability of reaching peak is the second variable (High, Medium, Low).

Top 15 Prospects
1. Brannstrom (Elite D- Med)
2. Batherson (Elite F- Low)
3. Brown (Top 6 F - Med)
4. Bernard-Docker (Top 4 D - Med)
5. Formenton (Top 9 F - High)
6. Norris (Top 9 F - High)
7. Wolanin (Top 4 D - Low)
8. Chlapik (Top 6 F - Low)
9. Jaros (Top 6 D - High)
10. Balcers (Top 9 F - High)
11. Lajoie (Top 6 D - High)
12. Abramov (Top 9 F - Med)
13. Davidsson (Top 9 F - Med)
14. Crookshank (Top 9 F - N/A)
15. Tychonick (Top 6 D - N/A)

Did not rank goaltenders. I spent many years as a goaltender but it is so difficult to reliably rank them. I thought for sure O'Connor had a great chance of being an NHLer for example.

What does the above mean in terms of our prospect pool? We have loads of depth but need more reliably high end players. A high probability top 6 forward and a high probability top 4 RHD would be good to add.

Nice list. I'd have Jaros higher for sure but looks good.

 

[LeProspector]

How has Abramov played so far? I’m not very knowledgeable on him but I’ve heard he is small, isn’t the greatest skater but is skilled. Kinda sounds like Corey Locke.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

How has Abramov played so far? I’m not very knowledgeable on him but I’ve heard he is small, isn’t the greatest skater but is skilled. Kinda sounds like Corey Locke.

I’ll be watching him tonight. So you will get absolute premier flawless expert analysis on him after the game......from somebody else

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Here's my top 15 prospects list for the Sens currently.
I've used the system type like NHL19 just for fun in terms of potential. For example, the first variable is the peak potential and the probability of reaching peak is the second variable (High, Medium, Low).

Top 15 Prospects
1. Brannstrom (Elite D- Med)
2. Batherson (Elite F- Low)
3. Brown (Top 6 F - Med)
4. Bernard-Docker (Top 4 D - Med)
5. Formenton (Top 9 F - High)
6. Norris (Top 9 F - High)
7. Wolanin (Top 4 D - Low)
8. Chlapik (Top 6 F - Low)
9. Jaros (Top 6 D - High)
10. Balcers (Top 9 F - High)
11. Lajoie (Top 6 D - High)
12. Abramov (Top 9 F - Med)
13. Davidsson (Top 9 F - Med)
14. Crookshank (Top 9 F - N/A)
15. Tychonick (Top 6 D - N/A)

Did not rank goaltenders. I spent many years as a goaltender but it is so difficult to reliably rank them. I thought for sure O'Connor had a great chance of being an NHLer for example.

What does the above mean in terms of our prospect pool? We have loads of depth but need more reliably high end players. A high probability top 6 forward and a high probability top 4 RHD would be good to add.

Very good list. I'd personally bump Norris and Wolanin ahead of Forms. It's close, but I just haven't seen the production from Forms yet. Injury hurt his season a lot. Hopefully he can have a great end to the year and a great playoff run. Looks very similar to Athanasiou so far... so if he turns out like that, it's a huge win for this team.

The way I look at it, our top 6 will likely include Batherson, Brown, Norris, Tkachuk and White. So basically I see a spot at LW, open for any of Duclair, Formenton, Balcers or Abramov to take. Or..... Lafreniere

 

[Masked]

The way I look at it, our top 6 will likely include Batherson, Brown, Norris, Tkachuk and White. So basically I see a spot at LW, open for any of Duclair, Formenton, Balcers or Abramov to take. Or..... Lafreniere

I think that spot'll go to an American, probably one with a Canadian parent.

 

[R2010]

Very good list. I'd personally bump Norris and Wolanin ahead of Forms. It's close, but I just haven't seen the production from Forms yet. Injury hurt his season a lot. Hopefully he can have a great end to the year and a great playoff run. Looks very similar to Athanasiou so far... so if he turns out like that, it's a huge win for this team.

The way I look at it, our top 6 will likely include Batherson, Brown, Norris, Tkachuk and White. So basically I see a spot at LW, open for any of Duclair, Formenton, Balcers or Abramov to take. Or..... Lafreniere

Yeah that's looking like our top six at some point but we're gonna have to hope a couple picks work out in terms of offensive upside because we need an elite finisher.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Formenton with 4pts tonight for London.

1G 3A