Beacon rejoined the discussion in the last thread to give his take on the AHL guys here: Hartford Wolf Pack (AHL) / Maine Mariners (ECHL) 2018-19: Part IX
@Beacon
Totally agree about Hajek.
Disagree on Lindgren. I don't see him getting walked. I think he's big, sturdy, knows where to be, is physical, and he could take shifts in the NHL now or very soon on a bottom pair. He would need to adjust to the speed, as he needed to in the AHL, but I don't anticipate it being a problem.
Generally agree about Crawley. I've said a few time his offensive numbers are a mirage. I also think they've come at the expense of his defense which was passable last year but lacking this year. I don't see much there, honestly.
Agree on O'Gara. Agree on Bigras.
Agree that Gilmour is reckless and have said as much. I will be fairly glad when he's gone.
Agreed, I guess, on Day. I saw him his first two games and he looked pretty good! Then he fell off. I've only seen him a couple times since then.
Came here to check out what people have to say about the WJC and not write anything, but began reading the Prospects/Hartford threads, and I have to comment because what I see is radically different than what the word on the street is. I'm going to split this into multiple posts. If you don't see all the posts, it means I'm still writing them, just come back later.
1. Much of what I write will go against the general thoughts here, so if you think the views of one person can't be right if they go against 2-3 year old scouting reports that have been repeated and reprinted ever since, please skip this. In particular, what I write about several of Hartford's defensemen will make your head explode.
2. I will use the term "NHLness" because I have no better term. It means looking like an NHLer in the way you do things: least amount of effort to get the job done, being in the right spot, not moving too much when you skate, making tiny plays that nobody notices unless you get them wrong, being able to think and react like an NHLer. It's not one particular tool, it's just the general way a player looks. I get that it's a stupid sounding term and people will make fun of it, but I have no better way of putting it. Scouting reports talk to specific tools, but anyone who followed prospects knows that tools don't mean jack s--t because hundreds of players with amazing tools failed to make it, or at least aren't able to make it right now despite having the size, the skating, the stickhandling on par with an NHLer.
Let's start with Defensemen.
The best prospect in Hartford (who's there the whole season, so excluding Lias) is Libor Hajek. I love the kid. The very reason I jumped in to write all of this is because of Hajek. There's no way he doesn't have an NHL career unless he tells coaches to screw off (or has something crazy happens like Corey Hirsch's mental illness). Last year I wrote that Pionk will be a player coaches love and will use a lot, but fans will be very mixed on him because he does tiny things right that nobody notices unless you keep rewinding his every shift. That's how Hajek is, but a different style. He is just smart, does all he small things right, gets himself into the right position, able to recover if he makes an error, just look effortless. Ultimate NHLness for an AHL rookie.
Early in the season, he was not using his body right. You saw reports that he was good defensively, but he was good defensively as a Junior player: skate up to the opposing player and use your stick to make the defensive play. That works against teenagers who mostly will never be good enough to play in the ECHL, but it doesn't work (at least not every time) in the AHL. On occasion he'd get undressed 1 on 1 trying to defend the Junior way. But Hajek displayed very strong coachability and his negative became a positive. He improved his body positioning from D+ to A- in less than half a season. On occasion, he'll throw a hit along the boards, not because he's a tough guy, but because that's the right play. The hits resemble the 90s much more than the girly-man shoves of the current era. They aren't Chelios slam hits, but when Hajek hits, he finishes his checks instead of mildly shoving the guy. That doesn't mean he's a hitter, it just means he's now a smart player who knows whether to use his stick to break up a play, to hit a guy or to position his body a certain way. Hajek, and not all those defense-first blueliners, is the best defender in Hartford. He's also been an effective penalty killer from the start.
Early in the season, he played mostly with Bigras, the best defenseman in Hartford, because the coaches obviously felt he needs adult supervision on the ice. Now he plays with Gilmour because he IS the adult supervision on the ice. Gilmour does some crazy things in Hartford, totally reckless on the rush, and Hajek is there to look like the vet. If you watch them play and don't know who is #3 and who's #43, you'll assume the 25 year old veteran is Hajek.
To start the season, he was basically useless up front and didn't even try to do anything once he crossed the offensive blue line. As time went on, he's taken more rushes. He still lacks the offensive creativity to be a scoring defenseman, but he can be good in transition. His offense may take a significant step forward next year if he keeps improving. But for now, Bigras is a better defenseman because Hajek is great only on 2/3 of the ice and shows only occasional flashes in the opposing third.
Hajek just looks like an NHLer in the way he goes about his business on the ice. If you watch enough AHL hockey over enough years, after a while you start to recognize that Guy A will definitely get called up and succeed, but Guy B is just a quality AHLer, but not much more. I can't predict how good he'll be, but I'd be stunned if he's not playing in the NHL long-term in his prime. Best guess would be as a good second pair guy who gets a ton of minutes from the coach while half the fan base whines about him. He's not NHL-ready yet because he needs to develop a bit more creativity and confidence with the puck. That's not purely an offensive thing, you need to be able to stickhandle out of your own zone when 2-3 forwards are charging at you and there's no lane to pass the puck to a teammate. Some offensive participation is nice too. But it's clear that this was not the goal of the first half of his rookie season. He will eventually pick up that skill too, but for now, some more time in the AHL is needed.
The most overrated guy in Hartford is Ryan Lindgren. There is a general perception that he's an inch away from the NHL, Hartford's best defenseman who's ready for a chance in the NHL. That is wrong. Lindgren is probably the worst of Hartford's 6 regular defensemen (Bigras, Hajek, Gilmour, O'Gara, Crawley being the other 5). That doesn't mean that he's bad player or a bad prospect. Hartford has a strong blue line and all 6 regular could play in the top 4 in the AHL. But if he gets called up to the NHL at any point soon, it will be only because the Rangers want to give him a chance to find out what it takes to play in the NHL. He'd never get called up in the 2019 calendar year to a playoff team that actually needs the points more than to develop the future.
Lindgren is a good skater for a defensive guy, solid speed, good edgework. Not a speedster, but good enough. Keeps all his plays very simple, which is what draws comparisons to Mike Sauer. But let's keep in mind that Sauer didn't make the NHL until he was 23. Sure, his injuries didn't help, but Sauer was in no way ready at 20, and neither is Lindgren now. I'd also say that Sauer was a better prospect at the same age than Lindgren today. While he is perceived as a defensive specialist, he still allows AHL forwards to occasionally blow past him. I am not saying we shouldn't follow him as a legit prospect, but he's not on par with Hajek, not even close. I mean, sure, if Hajek stops developing at 21 (as many do) and Lindgren keeps taking big steps forward until he's 26 (as some do), Lindgren could turn out to be a massively better player eventually. That said, based on where they are today (they are only a week apart age-wise), Hajek is a much better player/prospect.
The player Lindgren should be compared to in terms of who's the better prospect is Brandon Crawley. For some reason, Lindgren is viewed as an amazing find, while Craw is, at best, an afterthought. Between the two, Crawley is a slightly better player, but Lindgren is a year younger, almost to a day, so in my mind they're roughly equivalent prospects at this point. Both get PK time, both are generally solid defensively, but Crawley is a bit more mobile and confident (thanks at least in part to having an extra year in the AHL under his belt). That said, his points are mostly a matter of luck. He's not a driver of anything offensively or even a transitional mid-ice player. He's a defensive player who occasionally can skate up with the puck, and sometimes that results in passing the puck to a more creative player who makes a goal happen, so Craw gets his occasional point. Craw played with Hajek a bit in December, but they had to split up so Hajek could play with Gilmour to settle down the ice. Craw isn't close to the NHL. He, as Lindgren, can get very sheltered few minutes with very simple assignments just to show him what the NHL looks like, but he's not sticking in the NHL in the near future.
Frankly, I doubt we'll see both Crawley and Lindgren make it - I'd be happy if one of them turned into a solid third pair defenseman, but who knows how their development curve turns out.
Quick review of Rob O'Gara: he is what he is - a very good AHL defenseman or an NHL 7D. At the AHL level, he's mobile, involved, confident. He looks exactly how you'd expect him to look as a player who spent time in the NHL, who may be back in the NHL, but who also will be spending a bunch of time in the AHL. For Hartford to make the playoffs, players like him are necessary, so I'm glad he was included in the trade.
Here comes the first review that will make your heads explode - John Gilmour. I really don't like him. Incidentally, he's not bad at defense, he's bad at offense (what did I say about heads exploding?) By now, he can actually get in the right position defensively to be solid, but when he stickhandles, it's insane. The number of turnovers early in the season was incredible. He's told to keep it simple in the NHL, so you don't see it, but it's just pure recklessness in the AHL for Gilmour. When I say he's bad at offense, I mean if you're going to skate up with the puck, you should succeed at transporting and dumping/passing it a lot more often than you cause bad, blatant turnovers. An occasional mistake like that by a puck carrier is an acceptable price to pay. That's not what we see with Gilmour. There were periods, even games, when most of his puck carrying attempts resulted in something bad happening. It got better as the season went on, but the guy is 26 at the end of this season, how much more improvement do we look for next year? The problem with Gilmour is that his main skill is not transferable to the NHL. As much as he has problems turning over the puck when he carries it in the AHL, now imagine he is doing it against NHL All Stars, not against some guys who are 3 days away from the ECHL. He's someone who can get called up and hold his own keeping things very simple because of his speed, but he will never be able to add something to an NHL team because what he does best comes with a turnover price tag that's way too high.
The best defenseman in Hartford is Chris Bigras, not Gilmour. I am not sure why he's not viewed as a prospect here, but he's still 23 (almost 24) and already a very good all around AHL defenseman who's clearly above average everywhere across he 200 feet. at the AHL level, he's good everywhere and at everything, though he does make an occasional mistake (as is common for AHLers), but unfortunately not dominant at anything, which is what's keeping him in the AHL. What does he add to the NHL? He needs a particular skill that an NHL team says, "this is what we need." Today if he got called up, he could come up and do nothing special - good or bad. After game 1, people would like him because he got called up and nothing bad happened, but after 15 games, everyone will wonder what's his role on an NHL team. Bigras is towards the end of his prime development years, but some players keep showing a lot of improvement until the age of 25-26, for ex., Steven Fogarty (more on him later). Depending on whether his learning curve ends at 23 or at 26, he will be either a 4A player or a third pair NHLer.
The one prospect who's not really a prospect is Sean Day. I know people will say he's only 20 (21 in 2 days), so how do you know he can't improve? Ok, but how did you know that the fat, short, uncoordinated kid in your high school wouldn't be getting an NCAA D1 basketball scholarship? Day is just awful. You watch him play and you wonder whether he did this before. He looks like that kid you played with who was so bad, you just told him to stand there while everyone else did their thing. He hardly ever has anyone passing to him. If he comes to possess the puck, he's obviously told to quickly pass it to someone, anyone. Somehow he fails at that.
He's barely more mobile on the ice than an orange cone (that's another head explosion for you). No, he's not good at skating, he's terrible at it. Skating in pro hockey is not Olympic speed skating where you just move your legs and get somewhere first. I'm sure Day would be excellent at that, but this is hockey, not speed skating. You need to think on your feet in high-level pro hockey. He stands there thinking before moving his feet, then he does the wrong thing when he does move his feet. It's bad.
One game, he held the puck all alone near the goalie when Leedahl fell around the faceoff dot. Day looks up, thinks and passes to Leedahl who's sitting on his butt. The announcer goes, "Leedahl falls... [silence] but Sean Day decides to pass to him anyway." It's comical how incredible that was. I had to rewind just to be sure I saw what I saw. Day's thinking speed is out of this world bad.
Day is playing in the AHL now only because Craw is out. He desperately needs to go back to the ECHL and stay there. I'm not sure if he'll ever be able to keep up in the AHL, but I'm certain he's not going to come close to the NHL no matter how much you tell me he's only 21 years old.
Now onto the forwards.
The best player in Hartford is Vinni Lettieri. He's not just the best player there this year, he's the best all-around player Hartford had since Newb left. In fact, better than Newb. He's just amazing out there. His worst games, he looks like an AHL first liner. His best games, he looks like a father toying around with his kids. The only down side to Vinni is that he's frequently too unselfish and chooses to pass the puck to AHL scrubs instead of using his terrific shot. He needs to recognize that he's the best player on the team and play accordingly. On the up side, there is not a whiff of prima donna to his game. He hustles back on defense, fights along the boards, goes for the garbage rebounds in the crease (offensive or defensive), just does everything. He's good at stickhandling, forechecking, shooting, being a steadying vet presence, etc. He plays in every situation: 5 on 5, first PP, first PK, OT, everything.
Vinni didn't do well in the NHL to start this season so everyone just gave up on him, but the guy is still 23 years old. I know normally he shouldn't improve a lot at this age, but I think we may have an exception here. He's every bit a late bloomer. He's taking vast steps forward. He was much better last year at the end of the season than at the beginning, and he's better now than he was in March. This is someone who's been taking huge steps forward his whole career and this season is no different. We are talking about someone who was a meh high school at the time when guys his age were getting drafted. Then he improved enough to play college hockey, but was outscored by a defenseman named Brady Skjei. He went from a pretty mediocre bottom 6 his sophomore year to a first liner who earned an NHL contract as a senior. He had a solid, but unspectacular start to his rookie season in Hartford, and now is a spectacular AHLer. His game keeps taking leaps forward, I doubt he's at the end of his development curve. I mean, it's possible, who knows, but I see him as someone who's likely to keep on improving until he's 25-26 years old.
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Ok, this is taking longer than I expected. I'll write about the rest tomorrow or something.
Oh and the lines in recent games have been:
Belesky - Holland - Meskanen
Gropp - Lias - Vinni
Leedahl - Fontaine - Butler
Gettinger - Fogarty - Schneider
O'Gara - Bigras
Hajek - Gilmour
Lindgren - Day
That said, lines change up faster in the AHL than the NHL, so don't rely on these staying the same in the future. Also, he difference between line 1 and line 4 is nowhere near as big as in the NHL. Fogarty and Schneider can play on the first line in the AHL, but technically make up a 4th line. Likewise, Gropp went from the ECHL to the top 6 (though he's probably the most improved player in Hartford this year). You have Lias and Vinni go down from the NHL to play with a guy who just came up from the ECHL. It's really not the same thing as in the NHL where you'll never have a first liner on the 4th line without even struggling.
@Beacon
Totally agree about Hajek.
Disagree on Lindgren. I don't see him getting walked. I think he's big, sturdy, knows where to be, is physical, and he could take shifts in the NHL now or very soon on a bottom pair. He would need to adjust to the speed, as he needed to in the AHL, but I don't anticipate it being a problem.
Generally agree about Crawley. I've said a few time his offensive numbers are a mirage. I also think they've come at the expense of his defense which was passable last year but lacking this year. I don't see much there, honestly.
Agree on O'Gara. Agree on Bigras.
Agree that Gilmour is reckless and have said as much. I will be fairly glad when he's gone.
Agreed, I guess, on Day. I saw him his first two games and he looked pretty good! Then he fell off. I've only seen him a couple times since then.
