Trendspotting: Tampa Bay's power surge, Sergei Bobrovsky's renaissance and more
Welcome to a weekly feature where we try to have some fun with underlying numbers. The plan is to highlight a few trends, then dig beneath the surface to get a better sense of what they ultimately mean, what's causing them, and how likely it is that they'll continue moving forward. Think of them as bite-sized deep dives.
This week, we're taking a closer look at the team blessed with the most lethal offensive attack in the game, a goalie that's got a lot on the line this season, and a team that continues to exceed expectations.
Tampa Bay's power surge
Undoubtedly one of the biggest storylines in NHL circles this season has been the spike in scoring. Thanks to some combination of smaller goalie equipment, tighter officiating that makes it more difficult to slow down the top players, and teams generally getting smarter about how they construct their lineups, we're seeing offensive numbers reminiscent of a bygone era.
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The league average save percentage is south of .910 (.908 to be exact) for the first time since the 2008-09 season. The league average for goals scored per game is north of 3.00 for the first time since coming back from the lockout in 2005. Most of the scoring back then was artificially inflated by sky-high power-play totals, as the league tried to completely rewrite its rule book by cracking down on anything and everything. This season feels different. The scoring now comes across as far more organic, trickling down as a natural result of hockey that's being played at its absolute pinnacle.
No team better encapsulates where the league is right now than the
Tampa Bay Lightning, who are currently in the process of lapping the field all across the board. Having rattled off 11 wins in the past 12 games, they're now sitting atop the entire league with 58 points and a whopping plus-48 goal differential through 37 games. Most importantly, they're keeping some breathing room between themselves and Toronto in the Atlantic Division, which will help them avoid a nightmarish first-round playoff matchup against either the Leafs or the Bruins.
Any way you slice it, the Lightning have been truly unstoppable this season. At five on five, they're in the top three in shot share, goal differential, actual goals generated and expected goals scored. On the power play, only the
Winnipeg Jets create goals more efficiently on a per-minute basis, and no team has scored more total goals overall.
When scanning their lineup for holes to be potentially targeted by opponents, there doesn't appear to be anything abundantly glaring that can be exploited. Because of
Brayden Point's emergence as a bona fide star, Jon Cooper and his staff now have the ability to mix and match by rotating two especially lethal scoring lines. By stripping opponents of the luxury of being able to gear up the entire defensive game plan toward slowing down just the one group, the Lightning essentially force other teams into the perilous position of having to pick their poison.
The top-six gets the lion's share of accolades and offensive production, but what vaults the Lightning to the next level is actually their bottom-six group. Thanks to a sparkling draft record over the years, Tampa Bay is able to supplement their top players and round out the lineup with a medley of young, effective, cost-controlled pieces.
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Whether it's
Mathieu Joseph,
Anthony Cirellior
Yanni Gourde, the Lightning are stacked with versatile wingers that could comfortably play significantly bigger roles on nearly any other team in the league. But because of how deep the Lightning are up front, they're tasked with the role of feasting on the remaining scraps that are left over for them when the top lines are finally done eating. Despite not getting to stack up large point totals as a result, they're still immensely valuable to the overall operation; every time they're on the ice they're wreaking havoc, drawing penalties and keeping the opposition busy while the top lines get a breather.
For the time being, there's no real drop-off throughout the lineup regardless of who's out there, and if there happens to be an injury down the road, there are a number of viable internal options to step up and contribute. Because of all those chess pieces at his disposal, Cooper has experimented with various combinations throughout the season, and the only ones that have dipped below the 50-percent mark in terms of shot share and expected goals have been the ones involving
Ryan Callahan. Barring a series of poorly timed injuries, there's no reason why he should be playing to begin with when the games matter most, which conveniently gets rid of the most obvious weak link of the bunch.
Put all of it into one complete package, and you've got a team that's trending toward offensive totals that we haven't seen in 30-something years:
Tampa Bay Lightning2018-194.08
Washington Capitals2009-103.82
Ottawa Senators2005-063.80
Toronto Maple Leafs2018-193.78
Detroit Red Wings2005-063.67
Buffalo Sabres2006-073.63
Washington Capitals2018-193.60
New Jersey Devils2000-013.60
Tampa Bay Lightning2017-183.54
Winnipeg Jets2018-193.53
Detroit Red Wings2008-093.52
Ottawa Senators2006-073.49
Carolina Hurricanes2005-063.49
In fact, the last time a team had a higher goals-per-game average than what the Lightning have done thus far was all the way back in 1995-96, when a
Pittsburgh Penguins team that boasted
Mario Lemieux and
Jaromir Jagrat the peak of their powers (not to mention
Ron Francis,
Petr Nedved, and
Sergei Zubov) scored a ridiculous 4.41 times per game.
Yet as impressive as they've been early on, the Lightning ultimately have much larger long-term goals than just securing the regular-season scoring title. With the
Washington Capitals having finally exorcised their playoff demons last year, arguably no team's current core carries more playoff baggage than
Steven Stamkos & Co. do at the moment.
The good news is that this year's version looks like it potentially has another gear to hit. Given just how close they've come in the past, being loaded with that extra bit of offensive talent could very well be the difference between once again falling short in excruciating fashion and finally getting over the hump to win it all.