Here are my 2018-2019 AUS Predictions:
1) UNB (24-2-4 last season, 1st place) - Like I say ever year, they are the top regular season team until proven otherwise. While I think they are more skilled and talented this season (at least on paper), I don't see them quite hitting the 24-2-4 record they had last year. The key for them this year will be the goaltending (like usual) and the power play (need to be better than 18.6%, which was well below ACA/X/SMU).
The next 3 teams are so close that I could see it going any which way, but here is how I predict it...
2) SMU (18-10-2, 4th place) - I was tempted to put X here just because of Marchand, but I like the rest of SMU's roster a lot better than St. FX this year. The Huskies may have finished 10 points out of 2nd place last year, but their goal differential was +32 compared to +34 for X so the two were probably more even than the standings suggest.
3) St. FX (22-4-4, 2nd place) - I'm not sure they replaced enough of the scoring they lost with Clarke/Kontos, but Marchand will keep them in almost every game. They will probably play quite a few close games but I don't see them going 6-0-4 in one goal games again. That record in close games tells me they were a bit fortunate at times last season. They also had a ridiculous 26% power play + 91% penalty kill, two numbers that will be hard to replicate. I see them slipping this season down to 3rd.
4) Acadia (18-10-2, 3rd place) - A bumper crop of recruits to help offset the loss of a number of their top players. The future should be bright but I think we see enough growing pains/struggles at times to keep them out of the top three this season.
5) UPEI (11-18-1, 5th place) - Losing Powers and MacKinnon are obviously massive blows, but I can't see them giving up 136 goals again. They are usually good for a couple wins against the top teams every season which will put them comfortably in no-mans land at 5th. Not good enough to break into the top-4, but shouldn't have much issue being better than the two teams below them
6) Moncton (3-24-3, 7th place) - Probably the team that has best positioned itself to be the most improved with the addition of blue-chippers Montpetit and St-Cyr + another much-needed solid recruit in defenceman Lanoue. A 3-0-0 pre-season is reason for optimism, but getting out-shot by an average of 11 shots per game isn't a recipe for sustained success. Keep in mind that they did finish 10 points behind Dal last year, which isn't an insignificant number, but in their five head to head games they picked up only 3 points (1-3-1) to 8 (4-1-0) for the Tigers. If they are able to flip that this season that alone would tie the two teams. I think Montpetit can steal enough points in the other games to bring them out of the basement.
7) Dalhousie (9-20-1, 6th place) - I don't think I need to remind anyone how important Corbin Boes was to what little success they did have. He was the great equalizer many nights. Simply put, they just don't look as talented as the other teams this season. I see them falling back to their familiar position of 7th place.
