2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Maukkis]

Given how we have seen a sizable reduction in team 5 on 5 scoring scoring across the board is say our big 3's production is all fine.

We however need more out of our bottom 4. Kuli is fine not scoring much if he keeps playing as is but we need much more from Myers. Here is hoping Niku gets a shot soon and runs with it.

Yeah, nothing wrong with the top guys.

A guy like Enstrom wasn't any better than the bottom four (0.53 per 60), but at least he was terrific defensively. That cannot be said about any of the current four.

 

[JetsFan815]

Feature on Perreault by The Athletic Mathieu Perreault may be the Corsi king but insists he...

Interesting tidbit from the article was that Perreault does not follow Corsi, he had not idea he boosted every player's Corsi that he played with until Murat told him. Perreault said that Lowry and Tanev however do keep up with Corsi and talk about how "their Corsi was through the roof that game"

 

[lomiller1]

Someone here last year used to say that Maurice was coaching like he is 1 loss away from being fired. I looked at the forwards with the highest average icetime this season and categorized them based on the job security of their coach:

Red = Coach already fired
Orange = Coach in danger of being fired
Green = Coach's job safe

Here are the forwards with the highest icetime this season categorized on the criteria mentioned above:

It makes sense that coaches that have been fired or are in danger of being fired will run their top players hard to save their jobs in the immediate term. It's only our guys + MacKinnon who show up here as players playing so much while their coach's job is 100% safe. Also notice that other than our guys and MacKinnon... all of these players play for bad teams with poor depth.

Shift length could be an issue. Eg Mitch Marner plays more shifts per game than any Jet forward but only plays 19.5 min/game. Crosby plays even more shifts than Marner and still only ends up at 20.5 min per game

Not ideal since it doesn't separate 5v5 vs PK vs PP but here are the shifts per game leaders in the NHL. Wheeler is the highest Jet at #28, Scheifele is at #33

NHL.com - Stats

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

We are not a dominant team this year.

Unlike last year, I don't think we are in the top tier of contenders with the likes of Tampa, Nashville, Toronto, Washington.

I have us in the 2nd tier of contenders along with the likes of Pittsburgh, San Jose, Boston, Calgary.

I think the 2nd line and early struggles of the 3rd pairing are probably the biggest drags on the Jets CF% and xGF% year over year. 3rd pairing has mostly stabilized now but the 2nd line remains a disaster and we can't be the top tier of contenders until that second line is fixed.

I agree with this, but I will say that last year I would have had Washington and Vegas in that secondary category as well.

This team has a lot of depth issues. The 3rd line isn't performing as well as last year, the 2nd line has been awful as of late, and the bottom pairing is replacement level. I stand by what I have said all year that Niku should have been playing with the Jets and allowed the chance to develop in the NHL instead of trotting out Morrow/Chairot/Kuli game after game when they will never get better.

Perreault needs to be moved up with Laine. I liked Garret's suggestion earlier about spreading out the talent over three lines and putting Lowry/Copp into a strict defensive role. Even out the ice-time so that Scheif and Wheels are only playing around 20 minutes a night.

Unfortunately I don't think Maurice thinks anything is wrong.

 

[JetsFan815]

The top line hasn't been near as dominant either imo. We are struggling to generate scoring chances all throughout the line up, plus the third line came back down to earth with all three now scoring near their career norms. I mentioned it in another thread but I don't think this team is playing the right system at ES, especially with some of our vets slowing down a bit. Wheeler has taken a step back with regards to his ability to cycle, as has Perrault and Little. The Jets also lost an elite cycle player in Armia this summer as well. A good chunk of our remaining skilled forwards aren't particularly good on the cycle nor does it optimally fit their skill sets.

I think this team should be building an identity around (Scheifele, Ehlers, Conner, Laine, Roslovic, JoMo, Niku, Trouba, Petan etc) as they will soon be carrying the mail. These players are fast and all are more deadly off the transition and rush.

1st line might not be as great as last season but the 2nd line is what's sinking the Jets right now, one can argue that the 2nd line's struggles have put additional pressure on the top line and the Lowry line esp at home where they are getting heavily sheltered. The team is night and day difference between when the 2nd line is on the ice and when it's not.

To illustrate, here's a comparison between stats of 3 versions of the Jets and how they rank across all 31 teams:

Version 1: "Current Jets" as they have played so far this season
Version 2: "2nd Line" Jets i.e what the Jets look like when 2nd line is on the ice (using Patrik's numbers as a proxy for 2nd line)
Version 3: Jets without 2nd line on the ice

As you can see the difference between when the 2nd line is on the ice to when it's not is night and day.

Without the 2nd line on the ice we look like a pretty good team, right up there with the real contenders in these important 5 on 5 metrics.

When the 2nd line is on the ice, we look like a lottery team, only Rangers and Senators have a worse CF%. Only Arizona has worse GF%. No team has worse xGF%.

When you mixin the 2nd line with the rest of the Jets, we are basically a middling team at 5 on 5.

These are disturbing stats. We are basically half way through the season and are no closer to finding an answer to what to do with that 2nd line. We haven't even tried much to fix them other than the Connor/Ehlers switcharoos. These guys play 12-14 minutes a night @ 5v5 so it's not like we can just hide them away like a 4th line. I don't know how we go into the playoffs with a 2nd line that basically has the results equivalent to a lottery team and hope to make any noise.

 

[BigZ65]

Unfortunately I don't think Maurice thinks anything is wrong.

2-8-1 against teams in the playoffs today I believe. Looking at our schedule for the next 3 months if that doesn't turn around the Jets will be struggling to stay above the line, forget home ice.

 

[Whileee]

In the category of "a little knowledge can be deadly", here is Rick Ralph's regrettable foray into the world of shot metrics, commenting on Laine's stats:



Seriously, is it a problem of comprehension, or just the lack of any interest in learning? I lean toward the latter, because a lot of this stuff is pretty simple to comprehend, if one takes the time to delve just a bit.

 

[Maukkis]

In the category of "a little knowledge can be deadly", here is Rick Ralph's regrettable foray into the world of shot metrics, commenting on Laine's stats:



Seriously, is it a problem of comprehension, or just the lack of any interest in learning? I lean toward the latter, because a lot of this stuff is pretty simple to comprehend, if one takes the time to delve just a bit.

Goodness gracious.

Laine's shot metrics are trash, though. Wasn't this bad a year ago.

 

[Flair Hay]

1st line might not be as great as last season but the 2nd line is what's sinking the Jets right now, one can argue that the 2nd line's struggles have put additional pressure on the top line and the Lowry line esp at home where they are getting heavily sheltered. The team is night and day difference between when the 2nd line is on the ice and when it's not.

To illustrate, here's a comparison between stats of 3 versions of the Jets and how they rank across all 31 teams:

Version 1: "Current Jets" as they have played so far this season
Version 2: "2nd Line" Jets i.e what the Jets look like when 2nd line is on the ice (using Patrik's numbers as a proxy for 2nd line)
Version 3: Jets without 2nd line on the ice

As you can see the difference between when the 2nd line is on the ice to when it's not is night and day.

Without the 2nd line on the ice we look like a pretty good team, right up there with the real contenders in these important 5 on 5 metrics.

When the 2nd line is on the ice, we look like a lottery team, only Rangers and Senators have a worse CF%. Only Arizona has worse GF%. No team has worse xGF%.

When you mixin the 2nd line with the rest of the Jets, we are basically a middling team at 5 on 5.

These are disturbing stats. We are basically half way through the season and are no closer to finding an answer to what to do with that 2nd line. We haven't even tried much to fix them other than the Connor/Ehlers switcharoos. These guys play 12-14 minutes a night @ 5v5 so it's not like we can just hide them away like a 4th line. I don't know how we go into the playoffs with a 2nd line that basically has the results equivalent to a lottery team and hope to make any noise.

Helps explain our record against great teams vs everybody else a bit.

I knew they weren't doing great and this certainly doesnt help.

Have Perreault Little and Ehlers played together this year? I remember them doing well together last season.

 

[Maukkis]

Another one. (5v5)

SV%: 90.73
xSV%: 91.66

There was a point at which Hellebuyck was at 90 and his xSV% at 91.4. Thinking that was during the stint without Buff. Connor still overperforms the expectation at 4v5 by a large margin (89.15 / 86.42). In all situations, he's also over the expectation (actual 90.85, expected 90.55).

Hockeyreference has the league average SV% at 90.7 (which Hellebuyck is beating, mind you). Thinking the equipment change is hurting a lot of goalies, and 37 isn't an exception here.

SV%: 91.24
xSV%: 91.89

Trending up here. Still carrying the PK, too.

 

[Gil Fisher]

SV%: 91.24
xSV%: 91.89

Trending up here. Still carrying the PK, too.

He must be close to top 10 amongst starters now?

 

[Maukkis]

He must be close to top 10 amongst starters now?

Around 20-25, according to a very quick check. Some teams have two goalies splitting the games, so that complicates the definition of a starter.

 

[Gm0ney]

2-8-1 against teams in the playoffs today I believe. Looking at our schedule for the next 3 months if that doesn't turn around the Jets will be struggling to stay above the line, forget home ice.

I think the Jets are 6-10-1 against teams sitting in a playoff spot today.

Wins against SJS, DAL, COL, NYI, TBL, WSH.
Losses to PIT (x2), TOR (x2), MIN (x2), CGY (x2) DAL and NSH.
SOL to BUF.

They're 20-3-1 vs non-playoff teams though. Losses only to LAK, FLA and STL.

 

[Board Bard]

I think the Jets are 6-10-1 against teams sitting in a playoff spot today.

Wins against SJS, DAL, COL, NYI, TBL, WSH.
Losses to PIT (x2), TOR (x2), MIN (x2), CGY (x2) DAL and NSH.
SOL to BUF.

They're 20-3-1 vs non-playoff teams though. Losses only to LAK, FLA and STL.

That looks an awful lot like a team that will make the playoffs but won't go far. Guess they'll need Miracle Helly.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Around 20-25, according to a very quick check. Some teams have two goalies splitting the games, so that complicates the definition of a starter.

hmmm....wonder what I was looking at

 

[Maukkis]

hmmm....wonder what I was looking at

At 5v5, he is 30th among goalies with 800 minutes played (yes, kind of an odd cutoff, but I managed to narrow it down to 39 goalies, which is close enough to including all starters).

In all situations (1000+ minutes), he is 20th. Hellebuyck performs above expectation on the kill, which greatly boosts his numbers.

 

[Whileee]

That looks an awful lot like a team that will make the playoffs but won't go far. Guess they'll need Miracle Helly.

Actually, they probably just need 2017/18 Helly....

 

[Board Bard]

Actually, they probably just need 2017/18 Helly....

. . . if they want to get to the WCF.

 

[Spock]

I think the Jets are 6-10-1 against teams sitting in a playoff spot today.

Wins against SJS, DAL, COL, NYI, TBL, WSH.
Losses to PIT (x2), TOR (x2), MIN (x2), CGY (x2) DAL and NSH.
SOL to BUF.

They're 20-3-1 vs non-playoff teams though. Losses only to LAK, FLA and STL.

Could you provide more, or all playoff teams' records against other playoff teams and non-playoff teams to compare?

 

[Gil Fisher]

At 5v5, he is 30th among goalies with 800 minutes played (yes, kind of an odd cutoff, but I managed to narrow it down to 39 goalies, which is close enough to including all starters).

In all situations (1000+ minutes), he is 20th. Hellebuyck performs above expectation on the kill, which greatly boosts his numbers.

Those goalies with less minutes will regress as their minutes get up to where Helly's are. Every goalie is going to have an extended period where they perform (sv%) above the mean (and possibly well above the mean), fortunately for the Jets, Helly's is coming later in the year.

 

[Maukkis]

Those goalies with less minutes will regress as their minutes get up to where Helly's are. Every goalie is going to have an extended period where they perform (sv%) above the mean (and possibly well above the mean), fortunately for the Jets, Helly's is coming later in the year.

Not necessarily, but I think I see where you're coming from.

Bonus fact: Helle's dSV% (differential of actual and expected save percentage) ranks 28th at 5v5 (-0.65) and 14th in all situations (0.24). He has already bounced back quite a bit; just need to get the 5v5 numbers in check.

 

[Whileee]

. . . if they want to get to the WCF.

Depends on whether MAF is 2017/18 version, or 2018/19 version?

 

[Gm0ney]

Could you provide more, or all playoff teams' records against other playoff teams and non-playoff teams to compare?

Here are the non wildcard teams' records vs. playoff and non-playoff teams (in no particular order):

Team	GP vs Playoff	Record vs Playoff	GP vs Non	Record vs Non
WSH	18	10-6-2 (.611)	23	15-6-2 (.696)
TBL	16	11-3-2 (.750)	26	21-5-0 (.808)
NSH	20	13-7-0 (.650)	24	13-8-3 (.604)
CGY	23	14-6-3 (.674)	21	13-7-1 (.643)
PIT	23	15-5-3 (.717)	19	8-8-3 (.500)
CBJ	16	9-7-0 (.562)	25	15-7-3 (.660)
TOR	23	13-10-0 (.565)	19	14-3-2 (.789)
BOS	20	11-9-0 (.550)	22	13-5-4 (.682)
COL	19	6-11-2 (.368)	23	14-3-6 (.652)
VGK	18	9-9-0 (.500)	27	17-6-4 (.704)
SJS	20	10-9-1 (.525)	24	14-4-6 (.708)
WPG	17	6-10-1 (.382)	24	20-3-1 (.854)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Whileee]

Wow, how can some of those teams be considered contenders when they have mediocre records against the bottom half of the league?

 

[Gm0ney]

Wow, how can some of those teams be considered contenders when they have mediocre records against the bottom half of the league?

Well, if the Jets end up in a series against St. Louis this April, I like their chances!

Jets move to 7-10-1 (.417) after their win tonight. Colorado falls to 6-12-2 (.350) against teams in a playoff spot.