Prospect Info: 2018-19 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #13

Who is the Flyers #13 SKATER prospect?


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    107
  • Poll closed .

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
78,830
86,179
Nova Scotia
Oh right... lol forgot about him. Thanks. I do think JOB has more upside than Farabee though.
The good news is:

Farabee Frost O'Brien with 1st line upside....yet we still have

Giroux Couts TK
JVR Patrick Voracek

....for a minimum of 4 years. So we don't "need" them to be top line...or hell, top 6 guys anytime soon. Some nice to have depth!
 

wasup

Registered User
Mar 21, 2018
2,469
2,313
I don't think it has anything to do with recency bias. It just says that people value upside. We have a lot of prospects. What we have fewer of are potentially elite prospects. Allison, Laczynski, Morin and Vorobyev are all closer to the NHL than JOB, but none have the same upside.
First rounders absolutley get recency bias and don't let anybody on here tell you any different . You watch the rankings of the kids they draft the first year and they will be exactually in the order they were drafted and the first rounders will always get nod . just look at this year both first rounders are 3 and 4 but our 2 rounder will be like about 18-20.
Go back to 2016 rankings the first time it was done Rubtsov and Laberge were ranked right up there for this exact reason , 2 years later Hart , Allison and Laczynski have all passed them .
The fact is we don't really have much of a clue and go off of hype or what someone else has said cause we don't get to watch these kids live . That being said this is still a fun exercise and getting other people's opinions on here is neat but we really don't know much no matter how much some of us think we do .
 
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deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
This provides Ron with lots of options, if Farabee and O'Brien have good college seasons, then he has leverage with Allison and Laczynski, if they won't come out after their junior season, he'll "Marody" them.
With Rubtsov, Ratcliffe and NAK, he has more than enough forwards to fill out the 2020-21 team without them.
 

Provorov4Norris

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
176
125
First rounders absolutley get recency bias and don't let anybody on here tell you any different . You watch the rankings of the kids they draft the first year and they will be exactually in the order they were drafted and the first rounders will always get nod . just look at this year both first rounders are 3 and 4 but our 2 rounder will be like about 18-20.
Go back to 2016 rankings the first time it was done Rubtsov and Laberge were ranked right up there for this exact reason , 2 years later Hart , Allison and Laczynski have all passed them .
The fact is we don't really have much of a clue and go off of hype or what someone else has said cause we don't get to watch these kids live . That being said this is still a fun exercise and getting other people's opinions on here is neat but we really don't know much no matter how much some of us think we do .
Statistically players drafted in the 1st round have a significantly better chance of becoming NHL players than players drafted later in the draft so it makes sense they tend to have higher valuations.

I agree that it’s certainly not an exact science and more of a fun exercise...what would be interesting would be to see how the Flyers graded these players to see the big variations on some players that we have much higher or lower than they do.
 
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Magua

Entirely Palatable Product
Apr 25, 2016
37,521
155,572
Huron of the Lakes
We have an undrafted player, a 6th rounder, and a 4th rounder in our top 10. The undrafted is #2 even. Some of us have another low round pick or two in our top ~10. The board has come around on many of these underrated players moving up the ranks, but it's worth noting a not small contingent of us have aggressively ranked these same players for years over higher picks. The consensus has just caught up.

Higher level production, like in the NCAA or AHL, in the book doesn't mean you're a better player than a younger, more naturally talented player yet to reach that level. There's always some recency bias (though I think it'll be some time before we see another 2018 draftee ranked, and for me it's out of order), but 1st round picks, let alone top 20 picks, get that leeway. Yes, at times there's a new car small effect, or more nicely deemed "potential," but it also has to be mentioned that if the Flyers selected someone we DIDN'T like, some of us wouldn't hesitate to not rank him highly. But the Flyers have taken our top player(s) almost every draft.
 

FlyTimmo

pit <3
Jul 10, 2013
12,430
10,461
First rounders absolutley get recency bias and don't let anybody on here tell you any different . You watch the rankings of the kids they draft the first year and they will be exactually in the order they were drafted and the first rounders will always get nod . just look at this year both first rounders are 3 and 4 but our 2 rounder will be like about 18-20.
Go back to 2016 rankings the first time it was done Rubtsov and Laberge were ranked right up there for this exact reason , 2 years later Hart , Allison and Laczynski have all passed them .
The fact is we don't really have much of a clue and go off of hype or what someone else has said cause we don't get to watch these kids live . That being said this is still a fun exercise and getting other people's opinions on here is neat but we really don't know much no matter how much some of us think we do .

To me that isn't recency bias. There is an inherent ignorance with newly drafted players compared to their older counterparts. But there is an expectation associated with being selected higher in a draft. Rubstov and Laberge, had they met the expectations associated with their draft position would of course be ranked higher than they are currently, but they haven't.

In general most people are optimistic in regards to their own prospects, so they aren't expecting them to disappoint. Is that a healthy assumption? I'd say yes. More often that not highly regarded prospects will met or exceed expectations, as prospects (key phrase "as prospects"). Bigger hurdles occur in the transition to the NHL, where a player needs to adapt to extreme changes in speed, strength and skill.

Just look at 2017 or 2015 for example, look at how many prospects disappointed in their D+1 years. In either year, only a handful of the top 30 prospects ended up not meeting expectations. Allison, Laczynski, and Vorobyev have all improved from their expected draft standing. But, if Farabee and JOB meet the expectations associated with being a mid-1st round pick, they should eclipse those three in value. That is what most assume, and I don't think it is that risky of an assumption. It really isn't recency bias, it is more 1st round pick bias, which I think is a perfectly healthy practice immediately following the draft.
 

LegionOfDoom91

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
81,975
139,786
Philadelphia, PA
First round picks are your best chance of landing a 6F/4D/1G &/or an NHL player who will appear in 100+ NHL games. So yeah those guys are typically going to be pushed up because the statistics are far more in the favor then second to seventh rounders.

A good chunk of second rounders don’t even amount to NHLers even at the lowest capacity nonetheless an impact player & the odds even shrink some more as we move on.

There is also value in freshly selected first rounders as there’s still a lot of development to go at this point to prove what they can & can’t be for better or worse. In the early going optimism is going to reign supreme.
 
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Stizzle

Registered User
Feb 3, 2012
13,209
23,193
I've seen the exact opposite of recency bias in these polls for years. Too many times people have claimed that new prospects have to "prove it". Which is really stupid imo.

I remember in 2014 I was one of the only people voting Sanheim first. While Morin and Laughton went off the board #1 & #2. Two players with no where near Sanheim's package.

I've already brought up Myers getting pushed down the board unnecessarily in an earlier thread as well.

I don't see how anyone can complain about O'Brien going before Allison. The tape available on O'Brien looks awesome and he plays a premium position. Heck, I don't even think Allison is the best NCAA power forward we have. #TeamTanner
 
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FlyTimmo

pit <3
Jul 10, 2013
12,430
10,461
Wish Kalynuk had some more votes. Norm voted for him last poll, and he normally counts for several votes :naughty:
 

Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2014
76,649
123,162
Is there a recency bias with these lists?

I don't see why O'Brien is over guys that will most likely be on the NHL roster in a year or two and are pretty good.

Since when are prospects supposed to be ranked based on when they'll debut in the NHL?

Goulbourne debuted last season, should we have him over Aube-Kubel?

Its about talent, ceiling, and floor.
 
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Stizzle

Registered User
Feb 3, 2012
13,209
23,193
Wish Kalynuk had some more votes. Norm voted for him last poll, and he normally counts for several votes :naughty:

I'll hop on the bandwagon once Hoggy is off the board. Those 2 D should be off the board by now. Both in my top 10.
 

Flyerfan13

Registered User
Sponsor
Nov 17, 2016
3,102
2,893
I'll hop on the bandwagon once Hoggy is off the board. Those 2 D should be off the board by now. Both in my top 10.

Just Out of my own curiosity u have probably seen mark Friedman the most of us where is he on ur list?
 

Hiesenberg

Registered User
Jul 2, 2013
15,576
1,875
Since when are prospects supposed to be ranked based on when they'll debut in the NHL?

Goulbourne debuted last season, should we have him over Aube-Kubel?

Its about talent, ceiling, and floor.

Yea, but the guys I mentioned are pretty talented too. I mean Allison was one of the best players in a pretty tough college division that if I remember correctly, Charlie said that is the closest league to point equivalency aside from the KHL. He's two years older, he's frigging huge and probably NHL body.
 

Stizzle

Registered User
Feb 3, 2012
13,209
23,193
Just Out of my own curiosity u have probably seen mark Friedman the most of us where is he on ur list?

12th. He had a pretty rough first half in LV, but slowly got better. By the end of the year he looked like a totally different player. Lots of confidence and physicality. I'll usually be willing to rank a RHD with skating and some skill higher than most here.
 
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Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2014
76,649
123,162
Yea, but the guys I mentioned are pretty talented too. I mean Allison was one of the best players in a pretty tough college division that if I remember correctly, Charlie said that is the closest league to point equivalency aside from the KHL. He's two years older, he's frigging huge and probably NHL body.

And its still completely fair to have O'Brien ahead of him. Both great prospects. Lets just enjoy that lol
 

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