Prospect Info: 2018-19 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #12

[sa cyred]

Not only did people vote Hagg above Ghost, he got a larger % of the 3rd place vote than Ghost got of the 4th place vote.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/top-20-flyers-prospects-3.1472291/

Hide your eyes. A couple people knew what they were talking about though.

Oof. This one didn't age well either:
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/top-20-flyers-prospects-4.1472635/

Meh. While it’s fun to hate on Hagg now, but believe it or not he didn’t suck totally back then and most were happy when we drafted him. He was considered a 1st round talent. He was drafted in the 2nd round while having the ability to be more than he is today.

Obviously it didn’t turn out that way and Ghost improved a lot. Goes to show none of us can predict the future.

Also, this is coming from someone who watched a lot of Ghost’s games in college.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Meh. While it’s fun to hate on Hagg now, but believe it or not he didn’t suck totally back then and most were happy when we drafted him. He was considered a 1st round talent. He was drafted in the 2nd round while having the ability to be more than he is today.

Obviously it didn’t turn out that way and Ghost improved a lot. Goes to show none of us can predict the future.

Also, this is coming from someone who watched a lot of Ghost’s games in college.

Ghost improved, but he was always better than Hagg. People hung on to Hagg's first round hype for far too long. Some people still are. He wasn't a first round pick for a reason.

Turns out Ghost was and still is underrated by this fanbase.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I’d be interested in looking up notable fallers (like top 10-20 guys intially who dropped considerably as the year went on & ended up being drafted later than those ranges) throughout their draft year & seeing the success rate actually is. Saad’s really the only guy that comes off the top of my head as someone who bounced back in recent memory.

I didn’t really start following drafts really until like 2010 & same with looking on these forums (eventually to posting) but it’s the same type profiles who get called steals on here on draft day every year who seem to later prove their fallings right.

 

[Magua]

Hagg wasn't really a faller though throughout the year. He was a faller on draft day, which is its own set of criteria for assessment. I don't know why he fell on draft day -- and looking at Tolvanen or Ratcliffe just thinking of recent examples, or looking at Point for a more proven example, it can be for any reason, right or wrong. That Hagg was already a pro was a big selling point, but we know that doesn't always mean much. It also causes one to grade on a curve with struggles too; sometimes too big a curve.

I did not watch Hagg pre-draft; I don't have an opinion to dig up. But I bet anything that if you went back and re-watched him the warning signs were there, despite the narrative otherwise. Like that "low energy" tidbit following him around for years. Actual core weaknesses -- hockey sense, impactfulness -- were probably just thrown under that rug. People can point to hype or stats or whatever, but there were no doubt breadcrumbs leading to this future version. There almost always are. But you have to sift through the muck that is consensus hype on a lot of these kids and what you're told they are. Yakupov, in a more drastic point producer example, was the surefire #1. Again, not someone I watched. The warning signs were likely there and just got waved away until enough people believed it. It's not a magical transformation.

 

[baudib1]

I like Cates and Lycksell for upside; I see Hogberg, Bernhardt, Kalynuk and Sushko as all having really high likelihood’s of being bottom-half of roster players. I’m not sure Friedman is anything more than a 6th/7th but he is really likely to at least make that, and he’s in close proximity to the NHL (it’s not out of the question that he plays 5+ games if there’s a rash of injuries this year). It’s possible none of these guys get a fair shake here as well.

I think Kase is a glorified Martel (I mean I like Martel

 

[David St Hubbins]

Let’s call this one for Opie

 

[sa cyred]

Hagg wasn't really a faller though throughout the year. He was a faller on draft day, which is its own set of criteria for assessment. I don't know why he fell on draft day -- and looking at Tolvanen or Ratcliffe just thinking of recent examples, or looking at Point for a more proven example, it can be for any reason, right or wrong. That Hagg was already a pro was a big selling point, but we know that doesn't always mean much. It also causes one to grade on a curve with struggles too; sometimes too big a curve.

I did not watch Hagg pre-draft; I don't have an opinion to dig up. But I bet anything that if you went back and re-watched him the warning signs were there, despite the narrative otherwise. Like that "low energy" tidbit following him around for years. Actual core weaknesses -- hockey sense, impactfulness -- were probably just thrown under that rug. People can point to hype or stats or whatever, but there were no doubt breadcrumbs leading to this future version. There almost always are. But you have to sift through the muck that is consensus hype on a lot of these kids and what you're told they are. Yakupov, in a more drastic point producer example, was the surefire #1. Again, not someone I watched. The warning signs were likely there and just got waved away until enough people believed it. It's not a magical transformation.

Haven’t seen Appleyard in awhile but he posted a lot about Hagg back in the day and watched him quite abit in the SHL. Hagg was not able to develop a lot of his game that was expected. I truely remember even apple saying he expects Hagg’s offense to get better. Sadly it never did. But that was the criteria when voted back then. I think going into the Hagg thread we can see that. He was supposed to continue to develop both his offense and defense to be a solid top 4 defender. Just didn’t work out. I don’t think he is a bad 6th guy but it is disappointing where he is at now compared to expectations. But hey happens with every team. Morin has had some issues too (more injury related) but we knew he would take the long road due to his immature but big body. He is here 3 more years on a super cheap deal which is great for us. If he continues to develop.. awesome. If he stabilizes where he is at now or continues to have injuries then we move on.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Meh. While it’s fun to hate on Hagg now, but believe it or not he didn’t suck totally back then and most were happy when we drafted him. He was considered a 1st round talent. He was drafted in the 2nd round while having the ability to be more than he is today.

Obviously it didn’t turn out that way and Ghost improved a lot. Goes to show none of us can predict the future.

Also, this is coming from someone who watched a lot of Ghost’s games in college.

Yep. Hagg was a good prospect at the time and he just hasn't panned out as hoped.

 

[Magua]

Haven’t seen Appleyard in awhile but he posted a lot about Hagg back in the day and watched him quite abit in the SHL. Hagg was not able to develop a lot of his game that was expected. I truely remember even apple saying he expects Hagg’s offense to get better. Sadly it never did. But that was the criteria when voted back then. I think going into the Hagg thread we can see that. He was supposed to continue to develop both his offense and defense to be a solid top 4 defender. Just didn’t work out. I don’t think he is a bad 6th guy but it is disappointing where he is at now compared to expectations. But hey happens with every team. Morin has had some issues too (more injury related) but we knew he would take the long road due to his immature but big body. He is here 3 more years on a super cheap deal which is great for us. If he continues to develop.. awesome. If he stabilizes where he is at now or continues to have injuries then we move on.

He’s a low hockey sense player. That’s his fatal flaw. And he’s certainly no one’s idea of a skilled player and never was really. He was just very mature physically and got pushed through the levels quicker with good usage to disguise it. He got misevaluated as a player. What people say a player is and what a player is or turns out to be are two different things. Usually the simplest explanation is people were just wrong. It happens.

 

[deadhead]

People also have unrealistic expectations of 2nd rd picks, they have a high failure rate, a 3rd pair defenseman who plays 400+ games is a solid outcome.
#41 - about 23% play 400+ games, that's four full seasons and two part-time seasons. About 13% play 700 games.
Odds for Ginning are 19% and 13%.
In both cases, there's about a 6% chance of landing an Allstar.

Falloffs in the draft occur at #15, #25, #30, #65 and #100.
St Louis missing the playoffs gave us Farabee v an lesser prospect.
If Ron thought Ratcliffe belonged in the top 30, then trade a late 2nd, 3rd and 4th made sense.

 

[Magua]

People also have unrealistic expectations of 2nd rd picks, they have a high failure rate

Says the guy who overrates every last prospect in the organization.

 

[deadhead]

I'm not one of those in love with Leier or Cousins or who thought Gustafsson was a NHL defenseman.

I do think an unusual number of our current prospects will win regular jobs in the NHL, if McGinn could hang around a few years, someone like Twarynski has a legitimate shot!
Usually, you'd expect a significant portion of your drafts to have eliminated themselves after 2-3 seasons.
Out of the running:
2014: #168 Fazleev, #198 Petersson
2015: #90 Tomek, #98 Dove-McFalls, #158 Marody (traded for 3rd rd), #188 Fedotov
2016: #172 Salinitri
That's it. We've missed on 2 of 13 top 100 picks in those drafts, 4 of 12 later picks (Marody was a hit).
3 of 13 are starting (Sanheim, Provorov, TK) and NAK has an outside shot this year
1 of 12 are starting (Lindblom) and Myers (UDFA) has a shot this year

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I'm not one of those in love with Leier or Cousins or who thought Gustafsson was a NHL defenseman.

I do think an unusual number of our current prospects will win regular jobs in the NHL, if McGinn could hang around a few years, someone like Twarynski has a legitimate shot!
Usually, you'd expect a significant portion of your drafts to have eliminated themselves after 2-3 seasons like Dove-McFalls and Salintri.

Most of us hated the Dove-McFalls pick. Some scout and/or Hextall really bought way too into his potential as a.... 4th liner. I didn’t like Twarynski either, in the 80s, but he seems better than I thought as far as an outside shot at making it as a 4th liner. I still prefer the less scouted Euro lottery tickets in the mid rounds, though.

 

[sa cyred]

He’s a low hockey sense player. That’s his fatal flaw. And he’s certainly no one’s idea of a skilled player and never was really. He was just very mature physically and got pushed through the levels quicker with good usage to disguise it. He got misevaluated as a player. What people say a player is and what a player is or turns out to be are two different things. Usually the simplest explanation is people were just wrong. It happens.

Eh, agree to disagree. Hagg had higher expectations that he failed to meet for whatever reason. While mature physically he was known to be a solid defender. I 100% think it’s wrong to say he was a 1st-2nd round talent who got misrvaluated by everyone because he was more mature. Going back into other Hagg threads, looking at his scouting reports and talking to people who watched him play throughout his SHL time, he had the chance to be a better player. That is why he won the vote here and Ghost, who had a good sophomore year but had little exposure to everyone here, came in 3rd.

All I wanted to comment was that an 18 yr old Hagg, who was ranked as a 1st round prospect but did fall (that’s not revision history, that’s the truth), had higher expectations as an 18 yr old in the SHL and fell, compared to a 3rd round pick from Union college who barley anyone here really saw play. We voted Hagg over Ghost and were wrong. It happens. I watch a lot of ECAC hockey. More than any other “junior” hockey. I personally had higher expectations, like a lot of other people did, on Hagg based on reports from people who watched him. We could probably go back and see who Morin was voted over and say they were wrong too (obviously he has time to improve still). It happens.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Going back into other Hagg threads, looking at his scouting reports and talking to people who watched him play throughout his SHL time, he had the chance to be a better player. That is why he won the vote here and Ghost, who had a good sophomore year but had little exposure to everyone here, came in 3rd.

People saw Ghost a lot more than Hagg by that point. That was the lockout year. Union games were out there to watch. He played for USA at the Summer Showcase and the WJC. Union played two games in the NCAA tournament on ESPN. Everyone saw him play. People just convinced themselves Hagg was going to be a true two-way guy and that he was going to be in the NHL at 19 because he got top 10 consideration a summer prior.

Not to toot my own horn but you can go back and read what I wrote in those threads about why Ghost was the better prospect. It wasn’t as difficult to see as you are making it out to be.