Speculation: 2017 Offseason Roster Discussion

[TheLegend]

Carrying on from Part 3.......

Click to read more...

 

[Mosby]

Burmistrov is making things interesting. I thought he may take a step back after the injury but he's looked good since his return.

 

[Jakey53]

Burmistrov is making things interesting. I thought he may take a step back after the injury but he's looked good since his return.

Seems like a really nice kid, always smiling and laughing. IF he could ever start to finish he would be dynamite.

 

[rt]

At this point, I'd rather sign Burmistrov to a cheap one year, and burn assets on a partner for OEL instead. Strome is currently lighting up the OHL like we hoped and Dvorak is looking better every day. There's a decent shot we use a top five pick on yet another center at the draft, too. If Strome keeps it up and we win the 1st or 2nd pick, then Burmistrov is my guy 100%.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I'd like to see Burmistov back on a cheap one year deal.

 

[PhoPhan]

Keep him regardless. If the Coyotes are somehow rich with centers, he can always play wing.

 

[moosemeister]

Keep him regardless. If the Coyotes are somehow rich with centers, he can always play wing.

Exactly. I wouldn't mind going into next season with Burmi, Strome, Dvorak, Richardson. Hell even Jooris is playing good. But I would like a center with some grit.

 

[Heldig]

Coyotes have so many LW that are NHL ready. How do you rank them and which ones are good on their off wing?

 

[PhoPhan]

Coyotes have so many LW that are NHL ready. How do you rank them and which ones are good on their off wing?

Rieder and Duclair are the lefties who are best on the right side. I think the default lineup for next year could look like:

Domi-Burmistrov-Vrbata
Perlini-Dvorak-Rieder
Crouse-Strome-Duclair
Martinook-Richardon-Fischer

Keller should start the year in Tucson. McGinn can go in the expansion draft, hopefully, and Jooris and Holland can walk. From there, you've got room to bring in a 13th forward like Ryan White or Laurent Dauphin, and you have room to upgrade any of the above with an improvement via free agency or trade.

To that end, minor tweaks don't really make sense, but there's room for a blockbuster. I could see Rieder, Martinook or Duclair moving in a larger package to bring in a more established scorer. At any rate, though, you're counting on internal growth more than addition.

 

[TheLegend]

Richardson was officially shut down for the season this morning. Had surgery yesterday to remove the hardware inserted into his injured leg. Surgery was originally planned for the off season.

 

[cobra427]

At this point, I'd rather sign Burmistrov to a cheap one year, and burn assets on a partner for OEL instead. Strome is currently lighting up the OHL like we hoped and Dvorak is looking better every day. There's a decent shot we use a top five pick on yet another center at the draft, too. If Strome keeps it up and we win the 1st or 2nd pick, then Burmistrov is my guy 100%.

Agreed on the 1RHD part. We need to bring in a 1RHD, everything else we can cut and paste.

 

[Jakey53]

At this point, I'd rather sign Burmistrov to a cheap one year, and burn assets on a partner for OEL instead. Strome is currently lighting up the OHL like we hoped and Dvorak is looking better every day. There's a decent shot we use a top five pick on yet another center at the draft, too. If Strome keeps it up and we win the 1st or 2nd pick, then Burmistrov is my guy 100%.

Agreed on the 1RHD part. We need to bring in a 1RHD, everything else we can cut and paste.

I don't think we will get a 1RD, rather a player the talent of Gogo. I also think our D will get or look better if our puck possession improves. Mind you, with the expansion draft this year you never know what other teams might do.

 

[cactus shake]

Regarding the faceoffs discussion in the previous thread from last week - I'm not sure if there's been any more recent studies, but this one from 2012 does a great job of putting their importance into perspective:

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

It found that on average a player needs to win 76.5 more faceoffs than they lose in order for their team to gain a goal.

So for example, taking Vermette's 2015/6 season - he took 1351 faceoffs, winning 55.8% of them. If RNH replaced him for every faceoff and won them at his 43.2% career rate, he'd win 170 less. Which on average equates to a 4 goal swing for the team over the course of the season. You'd expect the differences in other areas of their games to account for far more goals.

The study supports exactly what you'd think - that winning faceoffs in the offensive/defensive zone during the PP/PK has a more significant effect. On average, a player needs to win 35 more faceoffs than they lose in the offensive zone on the power play, in order to gain a goal. That's balanced out by needing to win 163 more at even strength in the neutral zone.

So it's as you think - you'd rather win more faceoffs than you lose, but it's not a significant enough ability to take precedence over all the other skills between puck drops that make players effective. I've felt that you'd want 1 great offensive and 1 defensive player (can be the same guy) for special teams and the end of periods - where a faceoff win can be the difference between getting a shot off or not. But even then, PP/PK effectiveness depends more on puck movement and zone entry abilities than that first faceoff win. Intuitively you'd just want the chance to immediately to set up in the offensive zone as often as you can.

I think at even strength what PhoPhan wrote most applies - losing a faceoff in the offensive zone can be more advantageous, as it allows you to pressurise the defence into a costly turnover when they don't have the luxury of just launching the puck long when icing's called.

We sit 22nd this year in team FOW%. The teams below us: Winnipeg, Tampa, San Jose, NYI, Florida, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Edmonton.

 

[cactus shake]

Goligoski's results by this measure are much more positive than you'd expect from the talk around here.

https://twitter.com/GarretHohl/status/845804352539287552

Also, Vatanen could be a great target before the X draft.

Against my better judgement, I tried to wrap my tiny little mind around how WAR/GAR's calculated. Unsurprisingly most of it went over my head, but I'd encourage anyone interested to read through: Part 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

Simple takeaways are that it's great in its attempt to improve upon and replace stats like CorsiRelTM% as an at-a-glance tool depicting a player's value. It takes pains to explain that it's not a ranking of players, more a grouping of players of similar value. I like how the graphs made from it break the stat into its different components (even strength offence; ev defence etc.)

Relating to Goligoski - the stat takes previous seasons into account, so it tells us more what we already know: OEL is godlike and Goligoski's been ranked highly by underlying numbers - and says less about any down season / rough start either might have had.

As always, it drives home how much isn't quantifiable in hockey (at least by public data). Part 4 explains why it drops short handed defence from the model. I don't know how positional ability and most defensive skills can be adequately quantified. Strength along the boards is not just about takeaways - I don't know how you attach a number the ability to kill time by pinning the puck and player to the boards. Shot metrics show the end results (especially things like heat maps) but so much else happens on each play with other players, that I don't know how a player's value in clearing bodies from the crease can consistently show up. So much is team dependent.

 

[Llewzaher]

I'd like to see Burmistov back on a cheap one year deal.

I kind of hope we keep him... The Domi,Burmi,Duclair line is starting to get some chemistry and good puck possession time. ...Duclair is getting so close.. I think if he can actually get rewarded ,it may kick start him.

I do think we are in trouble if burmi is our number 1 though.

 

[YotesFan47]

So I was fiddling with trade ideas where we could improve next year and the players added would bring grit and goal scoring ability. I also wanted to pick guys that I though might do well in a Tipp system. Assuming we don't end up 1OA, I came up with this..

Jenner + Savard + Anderson for ARZ '17 1st (2OA) + ?

Domi - Jenner - Fisher
Perlini - Dvorak - Rieder
Crouse - Strome - Duclair
Martinook - Keller - Anderson
Richardson

OEL - Savard
Goligoski - Murphy
Chychurn - Deangelo
Schenn

Smith
Domingue

Keller can play his natural position and learn center as our #4 and jump down to Tuscan when we want to increase his minutes. Jenner and Anderson bring the grit element + scoring touch. Should make our team tougher to play against and all the games I've gone to this year we have pretty much been bullied. And then Savard who is a quality 2 way defender, probably A #3 on most teams but serviceable as a #2, should do well along side OEL.

I'm not sure if Richardson will return the player he was so we could be looking at a situation where we need to sign at least 2 centers, maybe 3 this off-season, really depends on Keller and Strome progressing. I wouldn't be surprised to find them both in the AHL next year. Jenner helps a lot with that problem and doesn't cost us a ton of real money.

Hopefully the value isn't too far off.

 

[XX]

Hopefully the value isn't too far off.

You can get similar performers for significantly less than 2nd overall. That sort of trade is the type of thing that follows a GM everywhere because it's an awful use of assets. A player like Savard is easy to get (he's not a top pairing D anymore than Murphy is) while a decent franchise will rarely pick in the top 5. Weak draft or not, it's way off.

 

[BUX7PHX]

My understanding is that Columbus is high on Anderson. Not certain how keen they are on trading three assets (all of whom are under the age of 27) for the #2 OA. Not certain if many teams are in that position to offer really young players.

What about kicking the tires on Anisimov?

 

[lanky]

Hopefully the value isn't too far off.

I think it is. I value top five picks very highly. Even in this draft.

 

[IPreferPi]

My understanding is that Columbus is high on Anderson. Not certain how keen they are on trading three assets (all of whom are under the age of 27) for the #2 OA. Not certain if many teams are in that position to offer really young players.

What about kicking the tires on Anisimov?

Hawks center depth is very tenuous without Animisov. They'll likely want a cheap middle six center coming back.

I think they'll explore moving Hossa, Crawford or Seabrook before Animisov.

 

[YotesFan47]

You can get similar performers for significantly less than 2nd overall. That sort of trade is the type of thing that follows a GM everywhere because it's an awful use of assets. A player like Savard is easy to get (he's not a top pairing D anymore than Murphy is) while a decent franchise will rarely pick in the top 5. Weak draft or not, it's way off.

In all fairness, I made it a point to say that I don't believe Savard is a top pairing D but I have a feeling we have two different views on how good he is. I believe he's a lot better than Murphy and brings better puck movement. Overall though it's a fair assessment, I just don't see the skill set that those three bring on the FA market and anyone available for trade at significantly less is likely significantly older.

 

[IPreferPi]

Domi-Burmistrov-Vrbata
Perlini-Dvorak-Rieder
Crouse-Strome-Duclair
Martinook-Richardon-Fischer

Yeah, we're probably looking at something like this for opening night next season. Only change I'd make is sending Crouse back down to Tucson and give him a chance to develop his offense more (instead of him becoming Tom Wilson 2.0) and bring in another right shot veteran forward. Maybe someone like Hemsky (who could help with the PP) or Eaves (who has shown throughout his career he can be productive on any line, with both skilled forwards and grinders).

 

[rt]

Yeah, we're probably looking at something like this for opening night next season. Only change I'd make is sending Crouse back down to Tucson and give him a chance to develop his offense more (instead of him becoming Tom Wilson 2.0) and bring in another right shot veteran forward. Maybe someone like Hemsky (who could help with the PP) or Eaves (who has shown throughout his career he can be productive on any line, with both skilled forwards and grinders).

I support this. And we get to keep assets if we go this route. Or burn them on a RHD.

 

[IPreferPi]

A player like Savard is easy to get (he's not a top pairing D anymore than Murphy is) while a decent franchise will rarely pick in the top 5. Weak draft or not, it's way off.

I agree that Savard isn't quite a top pairing RHD, but he's cemented himself as at least a solid #3 RHD and his advanced metrics and overall production are way better than Murphy's even with facing tougher competition. Would not trade a top 5 pick for him, but as the Larsson trade demonstrated, the price for a young/prime top 4 RHD can be pretty costly.

Would love to finally get a top pairing RHD but unless Chayka can fleece one with the MIN 1st+ we're probably better off hoping Murphy rebounds and Wood/D'Angelo can continue their development.

 

[Mosby]

Don't see why a contender like CBJ would trade multiple pieces for a pick. They're headed in the other direction.