2017 Draft

[OttMorrow]

All the more reason to not waste first round picks on them.

Bingo. The last goalie we drafted who supplanted our starting goalie (a starting goalie by the name of Belfour, who we also DID NOT draft), was named Marty Turco. We drafted Marty in 1994....IN THE 4TH Round.

While we did draft other goalies who turned into DECENT starters, like Smith, Ellis, and Fernandez, no one was a real game-changer for us or a true top tier starter elsewhere...and we've drafted A LOT of goalies in that time.

I am holding out hope for Oettinger to be our next Turco or Belfour, just like I did with Campbell, but the odds are low historically for us and statistically in general for drafted goalies.

The problem is, when you draft a goalie in the 1st they are either a starter or a relative waste of a 1st Round pick, as you would NEVER trade a 1st Round pick for a backup goalie straight up. Backup goalies also have relatively low trade value.

Comparatively, if you take someone like Dickinson/Faksa/Morrow or a Dman with a 1st Rounder and they turn into a 2nd or 3rd line Center or a #3 or #4 D, then while you didn't get your top line game -breaker that you were shooting for with your 1st Rounder, you still got an asset that can be used EVERY GAME, as opposed to a 15 game/backup who will get you very little trade value in return.

So basically, Oettinger is either THE GUY for us down the road, or he is relatively inconsequential. There is little to no middle ground. That's why I'd have preferred to go with Tolvanen or Kostin. Less bust risk, more options for their use, quicker ROI, likely more trade value if they are even decent as a forward.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Don't really disagree in general, but when a dire area of need, you do it. Statistically, its a bit more of a risk, yes.

While Fluery, Price, Luongo, etc., have been top 10 picks (top 6 really) Brodeur went 20th, Kolzig 15, JS Giguere 13th, Cam Ward 25th, Cory Scheider 26, Rask 21, etc.

But again, none of that has to do with what happens with Otter. In a perfect world, he develops enough to be a backup in a few years, then 1A when Bishop declines, then full time starter.

About the only projectable bad thing is Nill still has a stop gap backup problem after Kari's contract is up in a year, unless Otter develops really, really, quickly for a goalie.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I like Heika's analysis yesterday on all the what ifs.

A logical move would have been for Dallas to flip from the third pick (Heiskanen) to the fifth and then give up the 29th*(Oettinger). That seems like a reasonable price. After all, Tanev is five years younger than Methot and would be a longer term answer, so isn't that worth it?

Well, no, because the Stars would have slid away from Heiskanen and into the run of centers who were taken around fifth, and also would have likely lost Oettinger in the process. So while Tanev and a young center would be fine, it's not as good as Methot, Heiskanen and Oettinger.

So, while the draft might have been an infinite possibility in theory or hindsight, all we have to do is ask, "Is Tanev, Elias Pettersson (assume we ranked young centers as they actually went) and whoever we would have drafted at 39 (say a different goalie) as good as Methot, Heiskanen and Oettinger?"

We got three needs - left hand shut down D, best D in draft, best G in draft, vs. a right hand shut down D, a nice Spezza replacement (we hope) and who knows.

 

[Satan]

Meh, I'm surprisingly all for Oettinger at 26.

The draft was going to work out like this in an ideal world for Dallas:

29: Jake Oettinger
39: Jason Robertson

But they caught wind that one of St. Louis or Ottawa was interested in Oettinger, my money is on the Sens. Or they simply assumed that both teams have ****** goaltending depth and would likely take him, your guess is as good as mine.

So say if Oettinger was taken at 27 or 28 and the Stars didn't trade down, what do the Stars do?

29: Eeli Tolvanen? Klim Kostin?
39: Jason Robertson? Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen? Michael DiPietro?
70: Alexei Lipanov? Mason Shaw?

Just throwing out some ideas. We now know that the two other high end goalies were taken by pick #70. I kind of figured you'd see three or four goalies get taken in the second round. Then you can play the what if game for if we take Tolvanen-- the Preds are taking point producing men, do they look at taking Robertson at 30? Makes u think.


All in all, I think we gave Chicago a half-court shot so we could move up and take the goalie we desired. I'm all for it. You guys can go on about the history of goalies taken in the first round, but the same can be said about any player drafted after #5. The expected value drastically decreases throughout the first and these late first round picks will often bust.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Agreed.

Nill said he "had a feeling" Otter would be gone by 29. Wasn't specific. Clearly, he valued him over the next two goalies.

That said, would we be just as happy with say, Kostin and Luukkonen/DiPietro?

Would have gotten our top D, second ranked goalie, (although Nill would have spun it as our top ranked goalie, or equal to Otter) a slightly higher rated forward and one more player, whoever we would have picked at 70.

Probably would have been happy either way, because we wouldn't have known the difference.........

Would be interesting to see the Stars player rankings, a la how much higher Miro was than Nico/Nolan/Cale (in case an alternate universe draft happened) and how much higher Otter was than Luukkonen / DiPietro. Doubt we will ever know.....

 

[Duffeldof]

Value wise drafting goalie at #26 and paying #70 is bad. But thinking Stars goalie situation and how Nill & company seemed to like Oettinger IMO this is reasonable risk.

I was happy that Stars took flyer at Ferguson. You cannot but all your hopes into one player and we need other goalie depth too than just future starter. After Methot trade I must assume that he was the player Vegas really wanted in that trade. Maybe we can trade Nemeth/Oleksiak for goalie prospect?

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

It is rare your last draft pick has any value at all, yet ours helped net a top pair D man. How often does that happen? If picks in rounds 1, 2, and 7 pan out, it will have been a good draft, three players and one traded asset.

 

[Mr Misty]

All this "Don't draft goalies in the 1st round" is the same as all the moaning about paying more than 10m on goaltending. Don't be a person who is obsessed with these arbitrary distinctions.

Shaprio's podcast had something I didn't realize, which is that Oettinger isn't a free agent if he doesn't sign after his senior year. I was a little worried about this but we have control for 4 years, not through the end of his NCAA eligibility. Also there was the noise from opening a plastic bag of dog treats.

 

[BigG44]

All this "Don't draft goalies in the 1st round" is the same as all the moaning about paying more than 10m on goaltending. Don't be a person who is obsessed with these arbitrary distinctions.

Shaprio's podcast had something I didn't realize, which is that Oettinger isn't a free agent if he doesn't sign after his senior year. I was a little worried about this but we have control for 4 years, not through the end of his NCAA eligibility. Also there was the noise from opening a plastic bag of dog treats.

I'm going to have to look into that, but I thought the exact wording was the graduation year of his class. His class graduates in 3 years.

 

[BigG44]

So I did check the CBA, Shapiro is mistaken. He could become an UFA on August 15th, 2020.

If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time
of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student
prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and
remains a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college
class, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for
his services through and including the August 15 following the graduation
of his college class. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such
Player to retain such rights.

 

[BigG44]

This is the clause should he leave school early:

If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time
of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student
prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and does
not remain a bona fide college student through the graduation of his
college class, his drafting Club shall retain exclusive rights for the
negotiation of his services until the later of: (a) the fourth June 1 following
his selection in the Entry Draft, or (b) thirty (30) days after NHL Central
Registry receives notice that the Player is no longer a bona fide college
student; provided that if the Player ceases to be a bona fide college student
on or after January 1 of an academic year and the Player: (1) is in his
fourth year of college and has commenced his fourth year of NCAA
eligibility, or (2) is in his fourth year of college and is scheduled to
graduate from college at the end of his fourth year, then in the
circumstances described in (1) or (2), the Club shall retain the exclusive
right of negotiation for such Player's services through and including the
August 15 following the date on which he ceases to be a bona fide college
student. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to
retain such rights.

The only chance Dallas would retain Oettinger's rights for 4 years is if he didn't sign with Dallas and left school in 17-18 or 18-19. It's just not really realistic to expect that. If he leaves, it's for Dallas. He simply has to wait one more season (his 4th in the NCAA), and he's still free and clear no later than August 15th, 2020.

Yes it's always at least a reasonable concern with NCAA prospects, but I don't think there's any reason he wouldn't believe and Dallas wouldn't believe he'd be ready in 2 years. Now, if he goes back for his senior year, I'll be in full panic mode. Likely the only reason to do that would be to create the opportunity for him to become an UFA.

 

[Mr Misty]

I shall recommence freaking out then

 

[OttMorrow]

It is rare your last draft pick has any value at all, yet ours helped net a top pair D man. How often does that happen? If picks in rounds 1, 2, and 7 pan out, it will have been a good draft, three players and one traded asset.

It is also rare that someone who could have gone top 10 like Tolvanen or Kostin falls to you at the end of the 1st Round.

Tolvanen has arguably the the best shot in the 2017 draft. Nasty.

Kostin is perhaps the only true "Power Forward" in the 1st Round...skilled, big, mean....touted at one point as top-5 in the draft before injury.

I'd have preferred taking either of them, and then taking DiPietro at 39 if you felt so inclined to roll the dice on a high-profile tendy prospect.

That's just me. Time will tell.

I've got a bad feeling that I'm going to be right on this, and we're gonna watch one or both of Tolvanen or Kostin light it up in our division for years to come while we wait patiently...indefinitely on Oettinger, in the ultimate all-or-nothing, and usually "nothing", game of goalie prospects.

Forsee the only way the opportunity cost of Oettinger over Tolvanen/Kostin is if Oettinger is a true Top 5 goalie in the league on the level of Bobrovsky, Price, Lundqvist (past), Quick, etc.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

The only three things we can say about any draft are:

-We like/dislike what our team did
-In theory, it could have gone differently
-No one will know for about 2-5 years whose right, and by then we may not care

Some other things we can be reasonably sure of:

-If Stars have success, it was a successful draft.
-If Stars have no success, Nill will probably make other moves, etc.
-If none work out,
---He will be fired as GM
---We will still be fans, and we will still be moaning.

 

[Satan]

OttMorrow you keep listing ifs regarding Oettinger, yet fail to recognize the same ifs apply to any player we would've drafted at 29. It's still a massive crapshoot that late in the first and we more than made up for the pick when we snagged Robertson at 39.


I don't see how Oettinger becoming elite has anything to do with sacrificing the 70th pick to draft him. That really doesn't make any sense.

 

[Magic Mittens]

What Nill did was worth the risk of finding an elite goalie. He may or may not work out, but its worth the risk. Our Defence is hopefully set for the awhile now, and if Oettenger pans out in 4+ years we're going to be in a great position

 

[Morry83]

Everyone keeps comparing Oettinger to Campbell not realizing that Oettinger is a significantly better goalie than Campbell.

 

[Satan]

Everyone keeps comparing Oettinger to Campbell not realizing that Oettinger is a significantly better goalie than Campbell.

Well that's pretty easy to say with hindsight lol

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

JC seems to have made his rep on one tourney, Otter by stellar long term play. If there is a rule that applies here, its "Don't draft the late risers...."

Oh wait, Nill drafted Miro who was by most accounts a late riser.......

Actually, the real rule in play is "Don't hire a rookie GM just because he won the Conn Smythe Trophy during your Cup run." And, "Make sure your scouting department is well staffed, thorough and knowledgeable."

Seriously, IIRC, during bankruptcy Stars had one of the smaller scouting depts., no? Also, no goalie coach, just rectified, also contributing to the pick and failure of JC.

 

[Morry83]

Well that's pretty easy to say with hindsight lol

True, but I'm taking when they were drafted. Oettinger is a better goalie in 2017 than Campbell was in 2010.

 

[Satan]

True, but I'm taking when they were drafted. Oettinger is a better goalie in 2017 than Campbell was in 2010.

Based on what? It's hard to compare because Oettinger is a late birthdate so he was able to go to college this year, and posted great stats. However, Oettinger was the 3rd string goalie for Team USA behind Woll and Parsons.

In Campbell's draft year he dominated at the U18s and then eventually helped the US win gold at the WJC, while posting better USNTDP stats that Oettinger did in 15-16.


It's a lot closer than you make it sound.

 

[LT]

So the goal is to get Otter in the AHL in two years, if I'm understanding things correctly?

 

[BigG44]

Well that's pretty easy to say with hindsight lol

IIRC, Picard was rated higher than Campbell on several scouting services, and ISS didn't have a goalie in the top 30. On top of that, you passed on a fairly consensus Top 5 talent in Fowler.

It may not be fair entirely to say one was better than the other. Oettinger clearly played higher competition as a starter in the NCAA his draft year, but right or wrong, and it seems more wrong than right, Campbell excelled at the WJC where Oettinger was a back up. I personally think it's reasonable to say Oettinger is considered a more established prospect at 18 than Campbell.

In terms of reaching for a guy, Campbell was a reach according to most people. Now, I can't recall the exact team, for some reason I want to say Atlanta, but I'm fairly confident that as we approached the draft, there were rumblings Atlanta was considering taking him ... at I want to say 8 but I'd have to look it up.

Unless I'm forgetting a specific example of people have Campbell highly rated, he was for sure not the consensus number 1 goalie like Oettinger was, and I'm almost certain he wasn't a consensus 1st round pick. That said, I do recall it wasn't a surprise Dallas took him. The only reason I vaguely remember the Atlanta story (assuming that's the right team) is there were already reports Dallas would likely take Campbell, and I just remember hoping desperately that the other team would take the decision out of Dallas' hands.

 

[BigG44]

It's a lot closer than you make it sound.

That I would agree with. It's not a huge gap, and he was considered an excellent prospect. I just don't think he was as highly regarded as Oettinger. I'd be curious to see where he was on McKenzie's list, but those have been removed from TSN.

If I have time, I'll see the info might be in the prospect forum.

 

[BigG44]

So the goal is to get Otter in the AHL in two years, if I'm understanding things correctly?

I think it's more accurate to say that's the hope. The key is though, there's not a reasonable outcome where Dallas holds his rights for 4 years. He either leaves after 1 or 2 years, coming to Dallas, or he leaves after 3 seasons, still come come to Dallas, but he absolutely has the option to opt for free agency.