2017-2018 Blues Discussion Thread Part Three

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A Real Barn Burner

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I don't know what these last couple of games has done to it, but it wasn't all that long ago that Dunn-Parayko was statistically (by CF% based measures) our best pairing based upon a pretty sizable chunk of the season. We certainly didn't see anything routinely from them like what we've seen in the last couple of games, because there would have been a lot of talk about it if we had.

Personally, I consider it something of an aberration based on the sum total of what they've done together this year. It's really only sticking out because it's so out of character for what one is used to seeing from them and because of the recency effect. I have zero concern about those two playing together next year, or even next game.

Could the recent slip in play be teams are gameplaning and finding ways to exploit the Dunn-Parayko pairing? Possibly due to us having to protect the third pairing?

Usually teams need a little bit of footage to have a sound strategy for that type of analysis. Half of season of play is probably enough.

Your much better with the strategy of hockey so that’s why I ask.
 

EastonBlues22

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Could the recent slip in play be teams are gameplaning and finding ways to exploit the Dunn-Parayko pairing? Possibly due to us having to protect the third pairing?

Usually teams need a little bit of footage to have a sound strategy for that type of analysis. Half of season of play is probably enough.

Your much better with the strategy of hockey so that’s why I ask.
Teams will try to take advantage of whatever little tidbits their advanced scouting can give them, and individual players can try to exploit anything they happen to pick up on other players, but you're usually not going to see the sort of extensive game-planning that you would find in a playoff series. You can only tweak so much systematically (especially at ES) when you're playing three games a week or so. There will be some special teams strategies discussed before each game, and maybe some tweaks to try to improve what the team is doing at ES, but you're usually talking about general concepts. Strategies against specific players on the other team is usually more along the lines of what sort of line match-ups you think are favorable as opposed to specific X-and-O tactics designed to exploit individual tendencies.

Personally, I haven't picked up on anything that teams are doing to specifically attack that pairing in a different way. It's just some uncharacteristic individual efforts that are standing out. Dunn gets undressed after Burakovsky pulls a sweet move one on one. I've seen Doughty get walked like that or worse more times in a handful of viewings than I can remember Dunn getting walked like that all year. Parayko being out there didn't affect that at all. Backstrom beating Parayko for a rebound goal in front of the net is another recent example of an uncharacteristic individual fail that has nothing to do with what Washington was doing systematically, or with who his defensive partner was on the ice. A few uncharacteristic turnovers, and, well, you get the idea.

The goalies playing poorly isn't helping the optics of how the defense is playing, either. The Burakowsky goal basically went right through Allen. I would never crap on Allen for the goal given Dunn's gaffe, but it truthfully ended up being a very stoppable shot. Both of them were out there for the Martinsen goal, which was terrible and wasn't their fault at all. That's already a decent chunk of the goals scored against that specific pairing the last couple of games. The goalie makes one or both of those saves, and we're probably not having this conversation right now.

Honestly, the worst play I can remember involving them the last few games was the Chaisson goal off a pass that went through four Blues right up the middle of the ice. That was just a bad goal on the skaters part, but again, it was an isolated incident. That might have been something that Washington drew up based upon how the Blues were playing, but it wouldn't have been something that was implemented solely to target and exploit the Parayko/Dunn pairing.
 

Note Worthy

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is hutton 100% not starting tomorrow?

Technically no official annoucement has been made but it's as close to 100% as you can get. Yeo alluded to starting Allen in the post-game presser a couple nights ago and with Husso being called up there's good speculation that Hutton isn't fully recovered.
 

MissouriMook

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If Dunn-Parayko isn't working I have no problem flipping Dunn and Pietrangelo. Despite the fact that Dunn hasn't looked good lately, I think his entire season's body of work warrants giving it a shot. If Edmundson gels again with Parayko you'll have two strong ES pairings and you can give Eddy the responsibility of pairing with Petro on the PK.
 

Blueston

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If Dunn-Parayko isn't working I have no problem flipping Dunn and Pietrangelo. Despite the fact that Dunn hasn't looked good lately, I think his entire season's body of work warrants giving it a shot. If Edmundson gels again with Parayko you'll have two strong ES pairings and you can give Eddy the responsibility of pairing with Petro on the PK.
They flipped Dunn and Edmundson in 2nd half of Chicago game. This seems like best option to me. Parayko looks more comfortable with JE and I've never loved JE with Petro (who honestly looked best with Gunnar).
 

Evocable Manager

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We need Parayko to be Parayko.

He hasn't been for a few weeks now. I wonder if he's playing injured? Either way we need the dominant 6'6" beast to be the beast he truly is.

I do find it funny that Armstrong said last year he wouldn't wanna make it as the 8th seed only to get bounced in round 1 when that is more than likely exactly what will happen this year :laugh:.
 

TruBlu

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Could it be Parayko is wearing down a little after the season he's had? His TOI has gone up every year he's been here and, with all the injuries to our D throughout the year, he's bound to be a little exhausted having not been relied on this heavily before. I'm not saying his conditioning is bad, but I've no doubt it will improve as the years go on and he's consistently asked to put in 20+ minutes per game.
 

carter333167

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Could it be Parayko is wearing down a little after the season he's had? His TOI has gone up every year he's been here and, with all the injuries to our D throughout the year, he's bound to be a little exhausted having not been relied on this heavily before. I'm not saying his conditioning is bad, but I've no doubt it will improve as the years go on and he's consistently asked to put in 20+ minutes per game.

He's played more hockey in the last 12-18 months than most any other Blues player. I think he needs a full summer way from hockey....for conditioning and perhaps to work on a few skills. Also, a guy who is 6-6 is really never going to have the motor of a guy who is 6-1, or at least it can be said that his conditioning may be better at age 27-28 than at 24.
 

BleedBlue14

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Teams will try to take advantage of whatever little tidbits their advanced scouting can give them, and individual players can try to exploit anything they happen to pick up on other players, but you're usually not going to see the sort of extensive game-planning that you would find in a playoff series. You can only tweak so much systematically (especially at ES) when you're playing three games a week or so. There will be some special teams strategies discussed before each game, and maybe some tweaks to try to improve what the team is doing at ES, but you're usually talking about general concepts. Strategies against specific players on the other team is usually more along the lines of what sort of line match-ups you think are favorable as opposed to specific X-and-O tactics designed to exploit individual tendencies.

Personally, I haven't picked up on anything that teams are doing to specifically attack that pairing in a different way. It's just some uncharacteristic individual efforts that are standing out. Dunn gets undressed after Burakovsky pulls a sweet move one on one. I've seen Doughty get walked like that or worse more times in a handful of viewings than I can remember Dunn getting walked like that all year. Parayko being out there didn't affect that at all. Backstrom beating Parayko for a rebound goal in front of the net is another recent example of an uncharacteristic individual fail that has nothing to do with what Washington was doing systematically, or with who his defensive partner was on the ice. A few uncharacteristic turnovers, and, well, you get the idea.

The goalies playing poorly isn't helping the optics of how the defense is playing, either. The Burakowsky goal basically went right through Allen. I would never crap on Allen for the goal given Dunn's gaffe, but it truthfully ended up being a very stoppable shot. Both of them were out there for the Martinsen goal, which was terrible and wasn't their fault at all. That's already a decent chunk of the goals scored against that specific pairing the last couple of games. The goalie makes one or both of those saves, and we're probably not having this conversation right now.

Honestly, the worst play I can remember involving them the last few games was the Chaisson goal off a pass that went through four Blues right up the middle of the ice. That was just a bad goal on the skaters part, but again, it was an isolated incident. That might have been something that Washington drew up based upon how the Blues were playing, but it wouldn't have been something that was implemented solely to target and exploit the Parayko/Dunn pairing.

Personally what I am seeing, and I could be completely wrong. It seems like teams are attacking the pairing right in the middle, Dunn-Parayko seems to have some sort of a disconnect about the center of the ice and I think it's mainly because they generally don't seem completely aware of the puck and the man they are supposed to be on. I know that sounds difficult but you can relatively see a guy out of your peripherals when you are watching the puck. It seems like one of them if not both are always just staring right through the puck and aren't completely aware of what's going on around them. Notice the 3 goals against the Capitals
.

The first 1 Parayko is caught puck watching, doesn't see Backstrom come in front and then when he does he seems to freak out and try and jump to him without taking his stick away when he's parked right in front of the net. The second one it seemed as if Dunn was just staring right through the puck and failed to see the guy darting right to the center, at which point neither of them really seemed to know who's man it was. The 3rd one Dunn got caught completely staring through the puck as opposed to pushing Burakovsky off the puck when he made the move.

On the game vs. Chicago



for goal 1 when they were on the ice I don't think it was completely their fault. Iirc it was a long shift by Jaskin/Thompson and a couple failed clearing attempts by Parayko and Jaskin that led to the long shift. It seems as if on the goal Dunn went out to play his man. Parayko, although a bit late did take number 15 away, which Imo should've been the centers job but due to the long shift and the lack of clearing the center was not there therefore Colt had to make a decision about whether or not he'd leave 15 for a 1 on 1 with Jake or he jumps him and leaves the guy for Jaskin to pick up. Jaskin was pretty gassed so he didn't exactly get there in time and kind of half-assed stuck his stick out to try and stop the shot. Bad job not clearing the puck, bad job on long shifts, horrible goal against on Allen. Goal number 2 bad turnover in the oz by Sobotka not horrible defense on the rush only critique could be Colt needs to be stronger on the body to push the screen away, nonetheless he jumps out at the last second Jake doesn't pick up a puck he needs to make sure he sees and has another bad goal against. Going to blame that one on Allen. Goal number 3 piss poor by Allen, nothing else to say about that absolutely piss poor, it's like he tries to hard to control the rebound and push it further out that he stabs the blocker at everything. Yet when he stabs the blocker he completely opens up the hole inbetween the blocker and his body. Back breaker goal 4 why is Sobotka putting his stick in the passing lane to the point and not in the passing lane to Keith?

I know this is a relatively small sample size, but I agree I don't think it's an exploitation of the pairing. It's a serious lack of focus and awareness by the pairing. Dunn makes too many high risk plays offensively and defensively for Colt to not be aware at all times (something in which he seems not to be).

Apologies for the poor formatting I didn't realize it would actually embed the video by just putting the link in.
 

BleedBlue14

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Are you guys really rolling with three goalies right now?

We'll count it as 1 and a half goalies. Allen doesn't seem able to stop a puck, Hutton is coming back from an injury so we'll see what we have there, and they wont play Husso for some reason. So i figure you count Husso as .25 Hutton as .75 and Allen as half of a goalie.
 

Linkens Mastery

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Mr Raanta how could you ? You were our only hope lol .....
2huhHsJ.gif
 

MortiestOfMortys

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So I know this forum is fancy stat averse but.... Corsica released their 2017-18 WAR (wins above replacement) stats today. The three best players on the Blues this year were:

Carter Hutton (8.36)
Vladimir Tarasenko (2.87)
Jaden Schwartz (2.77)

The three worst were:
Jay Bouwmeester (-.94)
Vladimir Sobotka (-1.27)
Jake Allen (-1.97)

That seems more or less in line with people’s positive/negative feelings this year.

So, if we’re getting rid of one (and only one) of Berglund/Sobotka, i would say that clears that debate up a little bit. Bye bye Sobie, hope someone gives us a 3rd for you somehow
 
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HighNote

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I've always been on the Berglund side, but I wouldn't be opposed to moving both. Berglund seems to be pretty clutch, though. He turns it up near the end of the year and the playoffs, and I think that can be backed up statistically. Sobotka needs to be moved ASAP. Berglund I can live with keeping.
 

BlueDream

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So I know this forum is fancy stat averse but.... Corsica released their 2017-18 WAR (wins above replacement) stats today. The three best players on the Blues this year were:

Carter Hutton (8.36)
Vladimir Tarasenko (2.87)
Jaden Schwartz (2.77)

The three worst were:
Jay Bouwmeester (-.94)
Vladimir Sobotka (-1.27)
Jake Allen (-1.97)

That seems more or less in line with people’s positive/negative feelings this year.

So, if we’re getting rid of one (and only one) of Berglund/Sobotka, i would say that clears that debate up a little bit. Bye bye Sobie, hope someone gives us a 3rd for you somehow
Definitely was an interesting chart to look at. Like I've been saying for a while, moving Sobotka and Bouwmeester for futures would go a long way into freeing up cap and not even hurting our team at all. Would have been 100% the right move, but now Bouwmeester's injury complicates that. Of course it does, because we're the Blues. I really wish we could move on from him because our defense would be fine without him.

Regarding Sobotka vs. Berglund, I think Sobotka's overall game is/was more appealing before the KHL changed him. Now, it certainly seems like we could use Berglund's goals more.

And maybe I have been underrating Jaskin. The stats keep coming that he's a positive contributor. I still hate him in the top 9, but if we have Brodziak and Jaskin anchoring our 4th line for the next couple years, I'd assume that line will be tough to play against and do their job extremely well. Hopefully Sosh can stay healthy and that's a heavy line with great possession and defensive ability.
 
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MortiestOfMortys

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Definitely was an interesting chart to look at. Like I've been saying for a while, moving Sobotka and Bouwmeester for futures would go a long way into freeing up cap and not even hurting our team at all. Would have been 100% the right move, but now Bouwmeester's injury complicates that. Of course it does, because we're the Blues. I really wish we could move on from him because our defense would be fine without him.

Regarding Sobotka vs. Berglund, I think Sobotka's overall game is/was more appealing before the KHL changed him. Now, it certainly seems like we could use Berglund's goals more.

And maybe I have been underrating Jaskin. The stats keep coming that he's a positive contributor. I still hate him in the top 9, but if we have Brodziak and Jaskin anchoring our 4th line for the next couple years, I'd assume that line will be tough to play against and do their job extremely well. Hopefully Sosh can stay healthy and that's a heavy line with great possession and defensive ability.

I think that’s the key with Jaskin. He needs to be stapled to the bottom 6, hopefully 4th line RW, but with the injuries and lack of depth at RW this year, he was called on to fit in a role he isn’t really suited for. Better depth will help him out a lot I think.
 

Evocable Manager

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If you have to choose between Berglund and Sobotka, you choose Berglund without doubting it.

Sobotka is f***ing useless. He's not tenacious, he doesn't create any offense, he sucks defensively, he's not as good on the dot, he is a possession monstrosity. He tries to play a finesse game but has nowhere near enough skill to pull it off.

Berglund is at least a big body, who throws his weight around, is aggressive, reliable defensively, has a good shot and his possession game is almost Jaskin level. He's a perfect third line player, he just has too much term. He goes hot and cold but at least he's been hot. Sobotka is just f***ing cold all year round.

2013-14, you choose Sobotka. But it's since changed.
 

stl76

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Alright @Blanick, what should I make the main boards jinx thread about this time?
 
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