In most cases, arb is just to keep the process moving along, but in this case these two I think are a bit off on numbers. I think Killorn is likely to get close to what hes asking, though.
Vlad doesn't have the greatest argument to put up, nor will he have the best similarity scores just because this was really his first full season. Having two seasons of 43 and 4 games isn't a great foundation to start with. We don't really have access to the leagues arb database (or at least I don't) so I can't say with certainty as hockey-ref only uses "point shares" which is kinda meh as far as comparison stats go. Body of work is too small. They're going to want to tread very carefully with him though as whatever he gets will reflect on Drouin in a year and potentially hurt. Vlad with 3 points in god-knows-how-many-playoff-games helps us financially.
Arb is always weird - you want to find comparables, and basically say "okay, you're like XXXXX player except you had a much worse playoffs, but your regular season was similar, so we're thinking $playercaphit minus 10%", but in his case, his best comp that I can see right this moment is Erik Haula in Minnesota, who made $1.0m last year but is 25 and an RFA, not to mention a 7th rounder. Also had a better playoffs in a lesser role. I really can't put together what he would be asking for, other than maybe term...
If I had to guess or start crunching numbers for him, it looks like Coyle (MIN), Silfverberg (ANA), and Zibanejad (OTT) are Killorns best comps.
Important Bits:
Killorn is older than the others in this comp, but not by much.
Killorn is listed as a center, but isn't always a center. Coyle lists C/W.
Zibanejad has had better seasons than all the last two years, with quiet playoffs when there.
Zib makes 2.625 as a 23 y/o with one year left on his contract. He is youngest.
Coyle is a hit of 3.2 but with yearly climbing salary, also took a 5 year deal as a 23 y/o. Playoff numbers extremely pedestrian.
Silf makes 3.75 and is closest in age to Killorn, also had two good playoffs runs the last two years.
I'd guess they're going to base an argument around Silfverberg and aim for roughly $3.8m, which could be very good for both sides on a Coyle-like deal. Place him at 4-5 years if you're serious about keeping him, try to get the AAV around 3.8 which is incredibly reasonable for a swiss army knife like him. I'm guessing his agent will have an ask of $4m-$4.4m and JB/SY will aim for around 3.75.
), if Edmonton is in playoff contention with a Talbot injury you have to think Bishop becomes a deadline gold mine.
