Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part II)

[garret9]

The issue is that if Tkachuk scored a bit less he would likely fall into a much larger cohort that would also have a very high success percentage. That doesn't make his performance more "risky", it just makes it more rare. If he performed at a lower and less "rare" rate, he would automatically become less "risky" based on that criterion, which isn't very logical. Similarly, if you shave a couple of inches off of Logan Brown, he would likely fit into a larger cohort with a high success percentage. That doesn't make him more risky, just more rare.

The bottom line is that players that are performing beyond a stable and high percentage cohort are probably just as secure / stable as players within a lower cohort, and probably less risky, if anything.

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

 

[garret9]

So far, Jets scouts give me the impression that they use the right criteria most of the time.

Maybe the Jets have one of the LHD in their top-4, instead of Tkachuk or PLD?

Not sure I agree with your automated deferral, as I think you under appreciate that even within the Jets there are huge differences in opinion and criteria... that and I've always been one that does not like to automatically assume others are right. My personality haha.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

Now it all starts to make sense

 

[garret9]

Now it all starts to make sense

I'm a smitten fan boy and trying to pump his tires to every Jet employee (even non-scout) as I can <3

 

[Joe Hallenback]

It would not shock me to see the Jets have PLD at 3 for the draft

 

[Huffer]

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

The first two bullets are why I like him more as well. (Didn't know the 3rd bullet).

 

[garret9]

The first two bullets are why I like him more as well. (Didn't know the 3rd bullet).

(It's an HFJets (and just a few NHL teams) secret so shh)

 

[CaptainChef]

http://thehockeywriters.com/the-winnipeg-jets-at-the-draft-jakob-chychrun/

The more I read about this guy, the more I like him. Seems like his biggest challenge this season was rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery (which meant he got back just in time for the start of the season so he missed all the summer prep & pre-season).

That's a horrible way to start your draft season & explains many of the challenges he's faced this season. What happened for him to miss being selected for the Jr team is the one puzzle I have. But ya, I'm all for Chick-run as our first pick unless we get top 3 or unless (and maybe even if) PLD is still there.

 

[CaptainChef]

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

That is a big factor for sure; gotta go with PLD & the Chick at 4-5 on my list.

 

[Whileee]

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

Regarding Grind's model, I realize the issue with respect to sample
size. It's more about the fact that you can use fairly arbitrary cut-offs to create cohorts. If you expanded Tkachuk's cohort to include a group at the higher end of a lower-scoring cohort, he would look like the top-end of a stable and very promising group.

From what little I've seen and read, I would prefer PLD to Tkachuk, too. I just think that Tkachuk might be a bit underrated. Adjusting for linemates is pretty important, I would think (and the relCorsi is a bonus).

Not sure I agree with your automated deferral, as I think you under appreciate that even within the Jets there are huge differences in opinion and criteria... that and I've always been one that does not like to automatically assume others are right. My personality haha.

I agree that we shouldn't automatically assume that the Jets are on target with their draft assessments, but their record has been generally good in terms of the types of players they select (going for skill / production over size / grit). Sure, they could wobble, but all we really have to go on is what they have done in the past. Other than the Sutter fiasco, they haven't made many bone-headed drafts. Conversely, is there a particular reason why you think that we should be skeptical of their drafting approach?

 

[Whileee]

It would not shock me to see the Jets have PLD at 3 for the draft

Any insights into how the Jets might think about a player like Chychrun or Tkachuk vs. Juolevi or Nylander?

 

[Whileee]

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

By the way, how does Juolevi stack up when you adjust for teammates, etc.?

 

[Grind]

The issue is that if Tkachuk scored a bit less he would likely fall into a much larger cohort that would also have a very high success percentage. That doesn't make his performance more "risky", it just makes it more rare. If he performed at a lower and less "rare" rate, he would automatically become less "risky" based on that criterion, which isn't very logical. Similarly, if you shave a couple of inches off of Logan Brown, he would likely fit into a larger cohort with a high success percentage. That doesn't make him more risky, just more rare.

The bottom line is that players that are performing beyond a stable and high percentage cohort are probably just as secure / stable as players within a lower cohort, and probably less risky, if anything.

I never said anything about Tkachuk being risky, just about the risk of his projection being accurate.

All you've stated is that if they were different players they'd be in different cohorts?

My quotes were never about my feelings about the individual players ability or talents, simply that i had more faith in PLD's 77% being an accurate representation of his true talent as opposed Tkachuk's 100% being accurate representation of his.

Nothing i said was an indictment of the player, just the models representation of them

which, considering i have very little outside information on this, i would probably be more inclined to take PLD then Tkachuk because a sample of 2 is essentially No Data.

You can infer and make adjustments and hypothesize, but that's completely counter to the point of generating a ranking based solely off rigid mechanical sorting.

 

[BigRangy]

(It's an HFJets (and just a few NHL teams) secret so shh)

Not a secret to opposing fanbase lurkers anymore though!

I won't blab, but it is interesting that someone seems to be tracking this data. Can't wait until it is publicly available.

I had Dubois at 4 before knowing this and now I just hope the Jets pass the Flames before the end of the year!

 

[ps241]

Higher mean, lower confidence (ie: larger confidence intervals).

He may be less risky on average (by Grind's model), but there's more risk (by Grind's model) in whether the model describes him accurately.

I can't say much about my company, but I'm going to sneak one tidbit on why I like PLD so much:
* I just like his game more, his style, and his fit on the Jets
* I just like his scoring numbers better when adjusting for factors (age, team, linemates, secondary assists, etc)
* AND (this stays here) best relCorsi of all draft eligible players, AINEC

Ok like I needed more amo to man crush and be devastated when we pass on PLD

 

[ps241]

Not a secret to opposing fanbase lurkers anymore though!

I won't blab, but it is interesting that someone seems to be tracking this data. Can't wait until it is publicly available.

I had Dubois at 4 before knowing this and now I just hope the Jets pass the Flames before the end of the year!

Wow that was quick. Those pesky Flames employing spy's now.......what's next a fashion consultant for Burkie?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Any insights into how the Jets might think about a player like Chychrun or Tkachuk vs. Juolevi or Nylander?

I am guessing here but I think the Jets have it something like

Matthews
Laine
PLD
Chychrun
Puljujarvi
Tkachuk

But they still have there pre draft meetings to sort things out

 

[Heldig]

That is a big factor for sure; gotta go with PLD & the Chick at 4-5 on my list.

Garret has convinced me. Let's hope the jets draft top 5.

 

[Grind]

I am guessing here but I think the Jets have it something like

Matthews
Laine
PLD
Chychrun
Puljujarvi
Tkachuk

But they still have there pre draft meetings to sort things out

I had thought we'd gotten some confirmation that the jets had Tkachuk top 4 or was that speculation off of "they really like him"?

I'm really hoping we can end up with PLD but I'm resigned to being ok with any of

Mathews,
Laine,
PuljI,
PLD,
Tkachuk
Chych
Serg

I'm more ok with Nylander then I was but i'd still rather not take him over any of the aformentioned.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So playing with my lists just trying to decide which one i want to go with so here's sort of some random notes:
-----------------

Last year our system identified 62 players with cohort levels of over 30%

in this years draft (with added NHLE's for 6+ additional leagues)....we have 40.

That's a pretty significant drop off (a reduction in talent by approximately 35%)

20 Players over 50% (with 4 100%'s) in 2015.

16 Players over 50% (with 2 100%'s) in 2016.

That being said, 3 of the top 5 players are in Euro leagues, which our system still punishes greatly (mind you there was at least 1 similar player last year in Mikko Raantanan)
--------------------------

Our system still really hates euro performers which makes it very interesting that Auston Matthews is still puling a 65% cohort level. That's craaazy high for a euro league player.

Laine's doing really well to with 38%.

Even Puljujarvi at 21% is higher then Raantanen's 20% from last year (the highest euro player).

-----------------------

Tkachuk's still pulling 100% cohorts due to his insane scoring. His Comps are Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall, with Hall being the closest (within 1 NHLE, same height).

-----------------------

Logan Brown's pulling 100% as well Though it's a very small sample.

-----------------------

Nylander still looks good by the NHLE's, at 71% which would put him up in the same territory and Ehlers and Connor (so maybe i shouldn't be as down on him as I have been).

-----------------------

PLD is pulling a 77% cohort, which is extremely positive when you consider his cohort size is nice and big (i'd put a lot more faith in PLD's 77% then Tkatchuk/Brown's 100%)

-----------------------

Tage Thompson still looks like an absolute Gem if he goes as late as suspected, he's pulling 60% success which would put him in the top 15

-----------------------

Top D are currently: Girard (75%), Dineen (67%), Bean (55%), Sergachyov (53%), Chychrun (53%), Allard (50%) Juloevi (49%), McAvory (49%) Fabbro (40%), Quenneville (40%)

Important to note: this years top end D all come in slightly below Noah Hanifin's level.

-----------------------

How many 5'9" D are there?

How do they compare to Werenski?

 

[CaptainChef]

I am guessing here but I think the Jets have it something like

Matthews
Laine
PLD
Chychrun
Puljujarvi
Tkachuk

But they still have there pre draft meetings to sort things out

I would be so pumped if that was the order they had them in. Except for Pulju which I just assumed was in most top 3s, I really would be impressed if we had them seeded in that order

 

[Grind]

I'll be dissapoi Ted if we take o e of those guys over the aforementioned.

The only off the board guys I like are Brown and Thompson but I'd be pretty bummed even if we drafted them without trading back

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Aren't all of RNH, Hall and Eberle making $6 million a season for long term? If Drai is as good as he seems to be, add in Matthews and McDavid and how exactly do the Oilers manage their cap? As you say, they'll have to make room and while you want to keep all the best assets that may not be financially possible.

I think that lineup needs a serious shake up and some of McLellan's comments indicate it is likely coming. I don't expect a fire sale (tire fire sale?). They will want to get good value. But I think they want to protect McDavid and other young players from too much exposure to the losing culture that has been allowed to develop. Those big contracts will interfere with the returns but I think the Oil will take some lumps and move some of them anyway. Or do they have the patience to stick with what they have? Is patience even the right word at this point?

Yak, Hall, RNH, Eberle could all go. Draisaitl would only go for a player of Trouba's calibre and maybe not even then. Add Reinhart to their trade bait, FWIW.

On D they have Klef, Sekera, Davidson. I don't know what to think of Nurse but if he is going to develop that gives them 4. All LHD! I'll say Klef is top pair so they need a top and 2nd pair RHD's. If they trade away that much forward talent they are going to have to get some F's back as well as 2 RHD. Top 4 RHD don't come cheaply.

I don't know exactly how to work it out. I could make up fantasy trades as well as the next man but reality is a little tougher. I think Chiarelli is going to be very busy this off-season.

 

[csk]

I had thought we'd gotten some confirmation that the jets had Tkachuk top 4 or was that speculation off of "they really like him"?

I'm really hoping we can end up with PLD but I'm resigned to being ok with any of

Mathews,
Laine,
PuljI,
PLD,
Tkachuk
Chych
Serg

I'm more ok with Nylander then I was but i'd still rather not take him over any of the aformentioned.

I think Garret had that suspicion, but he said it wasn't from a reliable source.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What's not to like about Chychrum? 6'2 195 lbs. Super good toolbox. Elite skater. Not afraid to be physical. Great poise & composure. Good shot; excellent first pass; PP specialist. By all accounts compares very favorably with Ekblad.

This guy is really undersold. Can't see too much downside choosing this guy at 5-7.

How about at 4 though? Or even 3? I won't push to 2 & 1.

Compares favourably with Ekblad is pretty high praise though. If he is 90% of Ekblad he should be good at 3 or 4. The only problem is a lower confidence level at predicting defensemen.

I suspect that a higher rate of failure to live up to expectations for high drafted defensemen is created by some brain dead picks of D because they were big, in spite of lacking any other attributes pointing to success. So a big D with high hockey IQ, good skating and good scoring should be projectable as reliably as a F with similar attributes. JMO but I think that is the root of the issue.