Prospect Info: 2016 Leafs Pick - 101st Overall (COL) - Keaton Middleton - D - Saginaw [6-6/235]

[Semantics]

Seems like a good kid and a good interviewee. I'm routing for him.

https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/video/keaton-middleton-july-5-2016/t-277437436/c-44340503

He looks like he's 30...

 

[SprDaVE]

He looks like he's 30...

Jesus... I thought he was one of the development coaches.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Well if we were going to take a guy like this, I'm glad it was in the 4th round and that we didn't trade up in the first round to get a guy like Logan Stanley. Ya Stanley has a better shot, but there upside is pretty similar. Middleton didn't play with an OHL dman of the year either. Not loving the pick, but hard for me to be to upset with it until we see how things play out.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Babcock played another hulking defenseman not-known for putting up point totals: Jonathan Ericsson. Although, his possession stats are bottom 4, if he can turn out like a bottom-pairing D-man, thats a win in my books.

 

[Sergei Berezin]

The reactions are so similar to the Andrew Neilson pick... "no scouting site has excessively talked about him, so he MUST suck"... I'm not saying he's gonna have an amazing season like Neilson did, but lets just see what happens, ya?

 

[Mad Brills*]

Nielsen put up more points.

I hope he proves me and other doubters wrong, but I sadly think it's unlikely

 

[WTFMAN99]

Nielsen put up more points.

I hope he proves me and other doubters wrong, but I sadly think it's unlikely

Odds are you posted the exact same thing about one of the prospects we took last year. It's one of those things where i'll just wait and see. Happy we got Matthews and I liked a bunch of other picks, if we get another 2 players out of this draft it's a home run.

 

[TOGuy14]

He looks like he's 30...

 

[4thline]

Nielsen put up more points.

When Neilsen was Middleton's age he was coming off season in Midget AAA.

Like both picks. Swinging for the fences but in different ways.

 

[RyanOhReally]

When Neilsen was Middleton's age he was coming off season in Midget AAA.

Like both picks. Swinging for the fences but in different ways.

Nielsen had 24 points with Lethbridge in his draft year/Middleton's age.

 

[Bullseye]

He looks like he's 30...

Lol. He even talks a lot like Babcock. We just drafted a future D coach.

 

[Mad Brills*]

pretty much. Nielsen at least put up double digits.

Middleton dind't.

 

[bobermay]

Nielsen had 24 points with Lethbridge in his draft year/Middleton's age.

Nielsen is a 1996, Middleton is a 1998

 

[4thline]

Nielsen is a 1996, Middleton is a 1998

Ding ding.

Nielsen had 24 points with Lethbridge in his draft year/Middleton's age.

I was one of the 1st to defend the Nielsen pick when everyone was writing him off as the lone plug drafted way too high amidst all the sexy undersized offensive picks, but the fact is he did not make the WHL until after all three years of midget were behind him. That rapid curve is what made him such a tantalizing prospect.

Like then, I say give Hunter the benefit of the doubt. Plenty of time for Middleton to put it together, unreal upside for a 4th round pick. Could you imagine having a mean, mobile Hal Gill that's efficient defensively and hits to hurt?

PCS curves are good for guys following the normal path, not for the outliers.

 

[Nithoniniel]

PCS curves are good for guys following the normal path, not for the outliers.

I'm not exactly sold on Middleton, but this part of your post deserves some recognition.

Ecological inference fallacy. Inferences about individuals based on the larger group. Most players producing like Middleton won't have much upside, but we don't know if Middleton will be like most or if he's an outlier. I'd guess that most players with his production doesn't move as well, or have decent outlet passing.

 

[RyanOhReally]

Nielsen is a 1996, Middleton is a 1998

Obviously they're not the same age..?

They're 3 months apart in relation to their draft year. Just because Nielsen wasn't playing in the CHL until his draft year, or has a late birthday, doesn't make him an overager (in terms of draft eligibility). Nielsen put up 24 points in his first eligible year, Middleton put up 7.

So as it pertains to the original argument of Nielsen scoring more points in his draft year: surprise, Nielsen scored more points in his draft year. Him being born in November and Middleton in February has nothing to do with it.

Not a hard concept to grasp.

 

[Pholus]

Obviously they're not the same age..?

They're 3 months apart in relation to their draft year. Just because Nielsen wasn't playing in the CHL until his draft year, or has a late birthday, doesn't make him an overager (in terms of draft eligibility). Nielsen put up 24 points in his first eligible year, Middleton put up 7.

So as it pertains to the original argument of Nielsen scoring more points in his draft year: surprise, Nielsen scored more points in his draft year. Him being born in November and Middleton in February has nothing to do with it.

Not a hard concept to grasp.

I think what the other poster is trying to say about age, is that when Nielsen was the same age as Middleton, he (Nielsen) was still playing in midget.

 

[RyanOhReally]

I think what the other poster is trying to say about age, is that when Nielsen was the same age as Middleton, he (Nielsen) was still playing in midget.

And what I'm saying is that he wasn't. Despite what people think, Nielsen wasn't drafted as an overager. He's only a month older than Dermott and only 3 months older than Middleton RELATIVE to their draft years.

If we're talking about the year prior to their draft year, then yes, Nielsen was in Midget. But in Nielsen's first eligible draft year Nielsen was in Lethbridge putting up 24 points. In Middleton's draft year, he put up 7 points.

So for the third time, in their draft years, Nielsen had 24 points in the CHL, and Middleton had 7.

 

[RyanOhReally]

People do realize that the cut off date for being draft eligible is Sept. 15th, right? It's why Auston Matthews was a 2016 pick despite being born in 1997.

I get that Nielsen is a 1996 birthdate, but seriously, the difference in comparison to their draft year is 3 months. I wouldn't base any difference level of potential on 3 months.

As someone who watched Nielsen for most of the year in Lethbridge, I think it is fair to say that Nielsen is by far the better prospect.

Now, Middleton definitely has potential, seeing as how he's 6'6" and could be dealing with the Tyler Myers-esque growth issues, but the argument was that when Nielsen was Middleton's age he was in Midget. He was not. He was in Lethbridge, putting up 24 points. Because despite being born in '96, it was November. Middleton was born in February, of '98. 15 months. Subtract the 1 year difference in drafts to make it a relevant comparison. That's 3 months. Are we really going to argue that 3 months is SO MUCH of a difference in age that we should hold Nielsen's 24 point season as an overage year? Geez.

 

[moon111]

A big difference between Andrew Nielsen and Keaton Middleton is size.

If you could add the size difference to Mitch Marner, he'd be bigger then Jake Gardiner.

 

[bobermay]

People do realize that the cut off date for being draft eligible is Sept. 15th, right? It's why Auston Matthews was a 2016 pick despite being born in 1997.

I get that Nielsen is a 1996 birthdate, but seriously, the difference in comparison to their draft year is 3 months. I wouldn't base any difference level of potential on 3 months.

As someone who watched Nielsen for most of the year in Lethbridge, I think it is fair to say that Nielsen is by far the better prospect.

Now, Middleton definitely has potential, seeing as how he's 6'6" and could be dealing with the Tyler Myers-esque growth issues, but the argument was that when Nielsen was Middleton's age he was in Midget. He was not. He was in Lethbridge, putting up 24 points. Because despite being born in '96, it was November. Middleton was born in February, of '98. 15 months. Subtract the 1 year difference in drafts to make it a relevant comparison. That's 3 months. Are we really going to argue that 3 months is SO MUCH of a difference in age that we should hold Nielsen's 24 point season as an overage year? Geez.

Dude... we all know Nielsen is only 3 months older than Middleton . That doesn't change the fact that as far as development goes, he should be a 'year' older. Could you be a little biased if you're from Lethbridge or watch a ton of their games

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its only really the NHL draft that has the September 15 cut-off. When you're talking about development leagues, they go by calendar year. For instance, in 2013/14 (2 seasons before draft), Nielsen was playing MIdget in his last year of eligibility. Although Middleton was technically eligible to play Midget the past two seasons, he played in the OHL. \

Thats the only point people are making.

 

[RyanOhReally]

Dude... we all know Nielsen is only 3 months older than Middleton . That doesn't change the fact that as far as development goes, he should be a 'year' older. Could you be a little biased if you're from Lethbridge or watch a ton of their games

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its only really the NHL draft that has the September 15 cut-off. When you're talking about development leagues, they go by calendar year. For instance, in 2013/14 (2 seasons before draft), Nielsen was playing MIdget in his last year of eligibility. Although Middleton was technically eligible to play Midget the past two seasons, he played in the OHL. \

Thats the only point people are making.

I'm not trying to slant Middleton. I hope he works out, not trying to be biased.

I've brought up that the year prior to their draft years was when Nielsen was in Midget, while Middleton was in the OHL. But when Nielsen was Middleton's current age, and I'm looking at it how the NHL draft looks at it, he had 24 points in WHL.

If anything, this should show the rapid improvement that Hunter saw in Nielsen and why many are VERY upset with the Middleton pick. Middleton has not improved statistically and with his size advantage, that's kind of disconcerting. I've stated multiple times that I'll give Middleton the better of the doubt. Many big players take time to get used to their bodies. I hope he develops NHL calibre skating because that's all he'd need to be a bottom pairing guy, and that would make it a great pick.

For the 6th time, because this is the only reason why I continue to argue this, when Nielsen was Middleton's CURRENT age, he had 24 points in the CHL and was not playing Midget. Sure, if major junior goes by January 1st as the cut off date, cool. But by NHL standards, and easy logic, they were only 3 months apart by comparison in relation to their draft year. Like just because someone is born Dec.31st doesn't mean that they are a year older than a person born the next day.

 

[4thline]

Dude... we all know Nielsen is only 3 months older than Middleton . That doesn't change the fact that as far as development goes, he should be a 'year' older. Could you be a little biased if you're from Lethbridge or watch a ton of their games

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its only really the NHL draft that has the September 15 cut-off. When you're talking about development leagues, they go by calendar year. For instance, in 2013/14 (2 seasons before draft), Nielsen was playing MIdget in his last year of eligibility. Although Middleton was technically eligible to play Midget the past two seasons, he played in the OHL. \

Thats the only point people are making.

Exactly. the Sept 15 cut off serves to make "draft eligibility" a a flawed and almost meaningless measure of a development curve for comparison purposes, while contractually the teams can keep the same amount of control for the late birthdays with the slide rule the players themselves don't get any more development time to make up for it.

U-16 is minor midget, the U17, U18, U19, U20 are normally junior years. Ignoring this in favour of artificially decreasing a players age blurs the curve, and for a guy like Neilsen really does the perception of development a disservice. His massive strides as a late bloomer are what make him so intriguing.

Neilsen went
u17-AA
u18-AAA
U19-WHL 24 points, drafted 3rd round
U20-whl 70 points, 1st team all-star

Middleton went
U17-ohl
u18-ohl 7 points, draft 4th round

Do I think that Middleton will show the same offensive development and potential Neilsen? Doubtful. Cut comparing a U-19 year to a U-18 year is fundamentally flawed, you lose each player's year over year development.

 

[4thline]

Like just because someone is born Dec.31st doesn't mean that they are a year older than a person born the next day.

For hockey purposes in NA it actually does once you get beyond minor hockey. Unless you're granted exceptional status yob is the sole determinant of entrance/ exit from leagues and tourneys which dictates the amount of competitive hockey experience they have from Minor midget onward. If they moved the draft year cut off players don't suddenly become younger/ older, their draft eligibility and contractual status changes. The Sept 15th thing is legally based, not development. Comparing late birthdays performance to their yob peers gives a much better comparative barometer. A 4th year junior shouldnt be compared to a 3rd year junior just because he had to wait a year to hear his name called. The only difference is 1 summer with access to nhl resources, but tough, they don't gain that summer back.

 

[RyanOhReally]

For hockey purposes in NA it actually does once you get beyond minor hockey. Unless you're granted exceptional status yob is the sole determinant of entrance/ exit from leagues and tourneys. If they moved the draft year cut off players don't suddenly become younger/ older, their draft eligibility and contractual status changes. The Sept 15th thing is legally based, not development. Comparing late birthdays performance to their yob peers gives a much better comparative barometer. I 4th year junior shouldnt be compared to a 3rd year junior just because he had to wait a year to hear his name called. The only difference is 1 summer with access to nhl resources, but tough, they don't gain that year back

But because Nielsen wasn't on any WHL team until his NHL draft year, he didn't have these benefits. Both Nielsen and Middleton started playing Major Junior the same year then, so judging him by the added benefits of being a late '96 doesn't apply to him.

Like I said, and what you said, Nielsen's growth is shown when you really break it down even further, he's impressive. Middleton hopefully improves his skating and hopefully develops a deeper skill set.