Prospect Info: 2016 Leafs Pick - 101st Overall (COL) - Keaton Middleton - D - Saginaw [6-6/235]
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Liminality
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ChrisCall
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Honestly, much as recent trends have smaller players proving to be NHL able more than say, a decade ago, size is still a preference in drafting over lack of size.
In most basic terms, a Middleton Clone at 5'11 is and always will be less than the 6'6 version.
If there's a 6'6 D-man with an already established high ceiling skill set, then he goes in the 1st round. No such player ever exists in the 4th round.
Any team at any level looking to contend for a championship needs for someone on the back end with top-end size and strength, who can defend well. You could win without one, but you're more likely to win with one. If that player can score, then he's Chara. If not, just as a strong stay at home, he wins you games.
So, to my mind, the Leafs took three lottery draws on big defence-men in the later rounds this year. No player of this size with established superior skill was or ever will be on the board there, .... unless they are buried so deep in the nowhere lands of Bangledesh that it has everyone's head spinning.
If the Leafs can develop just one of them into a strong stay at home guy, then we win big time. If one of em does that and can score.... well ... but that's more the outlier than anything. Just, if the player had already shown that potential, they wouldn't be on the board at #101.
Though honestly, if the Leafs had just 5 picks in the draft, and burned a couple of em on this kind of pick, i would be more frustrated. It is though, a good thing to have in the system, and with the versatility that extra picks provides, i don't mind it. None of these three guys are true goons. They've all got different strengths and weaknesses, but are all hockey players.
For my money, Mattinen excites me most of the three, but we'll all have a better educated opinion on the matter come the new year.
In most basic terms, a Middleton Clone at 5'11 is and always will be less than the 6'6 version.
If there's a 6'6 D-man with an already established high ceiling skill set, then he goes in the 1st round. No such player ever exists in the 4th round.
Any team at any level looking to contend for a championship needs for someone on the back end with top-end size and strength, who can defend well. You could win without one, but you're more likely to win with one. If that player can score, then he's Chara. If not, just as a strong stay at home, he wins you games.
So, to my mind, the Leafs took three lottery draws on big defence-men in the later rounds this year. No player of this size with established superior skill was or ever will be on the board there, .... unless they are buried so deep in the nowhere lands of Bangledesh that it has everyone's head spinning.
If the Leafs can develop just one of them into a strong stay at home guy, then we win big time. If one of em does that and can score.... well ... but that's more the outlier than anything. Just, if the player had already shown that potential, they wouldn't be on the board at #101.
Though honestly, if the Leafs had just 5 picks in the draft, and burned a couple of em on this kind of pick, i would be more frustrated. It is though, a good thing to have in the system, and with the versatility that extra picks provides, i don't mind it. None of these three guys are true goons. They've all got different strengths and weaknesses, but are all hockey players.
For my money, Mattinen excites me most of the three, but we'll all have a better educated opinion on the matter come the new year.
According to reports from the scrimmages, he's slow and doesn't read plays well and doesn't have the skating ability to recover (this could be lack of experience + growing body... or forever-poor IQ + uncoordinated big guy, jury's still out of course). He's excellent at using his length and physicality against his peers. He's also better at passing out of the zone than he has any right to be. Strange skillset, but on one hand, you have slow guys who can't get the puck out who have to hit hard and block shots because Plan A failed (Polak/Russell come to mind)... if he's able to get the puck out and keep forwards off the glass right now, that's a veeeerrrry intriguing base for a guy whose presumed top skill is being huge.
Skating coaching, hoping he grows into his body/figures out his body, and getting more experience... he's a project.
Skating coaching, hoping he grows into his body/figures out his body, and getting more experience... he's a project.
I'm not exactly hyped on the pick (I like Mattinen's upside more) but he has some intriguing tools and could be a quality bottom pairing guy. He seems to make decent reads for passes. If we truly think we have among the best organizations set up to improve skating then I think it makes sense to gamble on guys whos biggest weakness is exactly that. I'm not going to buy a Middleton jersey for the Leafs, but I'm not going to write him off. Lets see what he can do at Saginaw next year.
sommervr
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- Feb 25, 2013
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From what I saw he was top three dman in the scrimmages.. Greenway, Dermott and Middleton. Team Blue was winning because they had the 3 best dman.
Don't go by reports there is a lot of ******** leafs draft aficionados that didn't like the pick because size and toughness somehow now means automatically bad.
LaPlante94
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- Apr 12, 2011
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Great to hear. We picked him a little high for my liking as there were some players at that slot I like more, but looking forward to tracking his progress this year. Obviously a bit of a project and long term development path, but could be worth the wait if he pans out.
67Cup
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- Sep 16, 2005
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I think there is a bit of overreaction against the Burke years emphasis on "pugnacity, truculence, testosterone and belligerence." It will even out eventually.
Also, there is a bit of a slip between two notions which may be summarized as:
"Size doesn't matter as much as it used to." And, on the other hand,
"Size doesn't matter at all."
The first is true. The second isn't.
But the criticism of the Middleton pick isn't about size alone or belligerence. It is that some argue that there is no precedent for a dman who contributes as little offensively as Middleton making the NHL, even at his size. Keith Aulie is said to be the top end example.
My own query would be to ask whether the sample size of dmen Middleton's size is large enough to make so definite a claim. I also suspect that the Leafs have analytic tools more sophisticated than ours. I am quite sure they have seen him more often.
Also, there is a bit of a slip between two notions which may be summarized as:
"Size doesn't matter as much as it used to." And, on the other hand,
"Size doesn't matter at all."
The first is true. The second isn't.
But the criticism of the Middleton pick isn't about size alone or belligerence. It is that some argue that there is no precedent for a dman who contributes as little offensively as Middleton making the NHL, even at his size. Keith Aulie is said to be the top end example.
My own query would be to ask whether the sample size of dmen Middleton's size is large enough to make so definite a claim. I also suspect that the Leafs have analytic tools more sophisticated than ours. I am quite sure they have seen him more often.
Not true. I would like a fairly good skater and a guy that can move the puck up the ice though. Not a lot to ask for
Kingpin794
Smart A** In A Jersey
Eh, it depends on how everyone responds to the new young coach (Spencer Carbery) they've brought in.
We're still gonna have Mitchell Stephens up front to go along with some solid draft eligible guys (Brady Gilmour, Kirill Maksimov, Cole Coskey), but after that it is kinda thin skill wise on offense.
In goal we'll have NJD pick Evan Cormier. He's so-so. Some night's he's a wall, other nights he let's the softies in. Think he'll be a little closer to the former this year with the defense he'll have in front of him.
As for defense we should have EDM pick Markus Niemelainen, and DET pick Philip Hronek along with draft eligible Robert Proner and some other bottom pairing guys. Pairing him with Hronek for the season would probably be a good match for him.
All in all, if some guys step up, Saginaw is probably a six seed in the west, and I'd figure The Mountain is gonna be eating a lot of minutes up in the process. But I wouldn't hold out hope for too much offensive growth. If he's hitting 20-25 pts while improving his skating and getting a bit more physical then I'll be happy.
I don't think people perceive it as automatically bad. A lot of drafting involves finding areas where teams undervalue players. Last year the thought was that the inefficiency was size. Teams will value size too much and miss out on high-skill players who have great NHL potential and wind up with a worse pick.
Last year, it was perceived that the Leafs identified that inefficiency and drafted high-skilled albeit small forwards. This year there was a tonne of size, which indicates that the Leafs took a turn on that inefficiency. Sure, it could be that the largest players simply were the best players available, even taking the league bias to size into consideration, but that's something a lot of posters are skeptical about, hence the controversy.
This year the perception in media is that the Leafs identified over-agers as the league drafting inefficiency, hence the many overage picks.
Hopefully that's a better inefficiency to target, but I guess only time will tell!
7even
Offered and lost
Not really, just need to be able to skate to keep up with the fastest generation of NHL hockey ever and be able to play the modern transition game. Martin Marincin is a great example of a modern defensive defenseman who doesn't just play passively.
Harry Kakalovich
Registered User
I seen some video on him, he moves pretty good for a huge guy! it looks like he has a pretty decent skillset, hopefully the Leafs maxout his development.
Nithoniniel
Registered User
Like 67Cup said, guys that produce as little as him rarely ever amount to anything. That's because guys like that generally don't have the skill to even be effective in a limited, defensive role at the NHL level. The hope with Keaton would be that he is an exception in that he has more skill than his production indicates. His ability to start the transition with effective outlet passing could be such a skill.
On the other hand, I'm worried about reports that he struggles to follow the game. His potential future NHL role would depend on his ability to read the play well enough to counter-act people being faster and more skilled. It could be an impossible road block for him, whereas bad skating can be fixed.
That's the aspect I'll keep my eye on, to see if he is just tactically raw or have bad hockey IQ. That seems to be the first and foremost obstacle as I see it.
Who knows. Probably not. Probably not.
On the other hand, I'm worried about reports that he struggles to follow the game. His potential future NHL role would depend on his ability to read the play well enough to counter-act people being faster and more skilled. It could be an impossible road block for him, whereas bad skating can be fixed.
That's the aspect I'll keep my eye on, to see if he is just tactically raw or have bad hockey IQ. That seems to be the first and foremost obstacle as I see it.
Who knows. Probably not. Probably not.
In all honesty, that clip shows me nothing. You can not judge his game at all from that clip. If anything I would say his shot is quite poor and at best he is providing the minimum you would expect from an OHL defensemen.
BUT, I will say that if others are right and he does have a good breakout pass and shows some potential in a transition game than I think he has a chance and its a better pick than we all thought. He doesn't need to produce in the NHL if he can successfully defend AND transition the puck. Not 1 but both.
The way I see this is we got this pick for no assets. Matthias on a 1 yr. If this kid busts I don't care. If he turns into half of a guy like parayko it's a steal.
Magic Man
Registered User
This management group's Jamie Devane pick. Early-mid pick on a limited upside potential enforcer.
I feel like the game has passed by the heavyweight with limited skills.
I feel like the game has passed by the heavyweight with limited skills.
kb
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- Aug 28, 2009
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Where does anyone get enforcer out of this pick...because he is big? He doesn't fight much. He does use his size to clear the zone though.
All 4th round picks by definition have limited upside. Otherwise they would have been drafted earlier.
If you go to the team site there are many game clips there.
