2016 Draft Thread – Host: Buffalo – Lottery: April 30th – Part 2

[MackAttack26]

Mike Morreale was on WGR yesterday and said the top 6 players could make the jump next year. He also said the difference between 8 and 28 was razor thin.

He seems to imply the top 6 that had a chance were Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Tkachuk, Chychrun, and Juolevi. He didn't say, but I presume that Nylander is 7. After that, there seems to be a major drop. He also said the drop could be at 10 depending who you are talking with.

I think he's totally off. Implying the difference between a guy like Dubois/Sergavhev and a guy like Brown/Hajek is "razor thin" just doesn't make sense.

Also, the top-6 itself is completely debatable as to who that is. The top-3 is clear, thoe next "3 guys in the top-6" can be considered Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev, Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander and even a couple others. There is no major drop within this group at all.

 

[stokes84]

Chychrun's drop reminds me a little of Fowler's fall in his draft year. Just sayin'...

Wasn't Fowler's drop character related? Chychrun's drop seems to be more concerns about his hockey IQ.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Chychrun's drop reminds me a little of Fowler's fall in his draft year. Just sayin'...

And if we could get him at 12, great.

If you guaranteed me Fowler with a top 3-4 pick, I'd probably roll the dice on another prospect.

 

[Chainshot]

I think he's totally off. Implying the difference between a guy like Dubois/Sergavhev and a guy like Brown/Hajek is "razor thin" just doesn't make sense.

Also, the top-6 itself is completely debatable as to who that is. The top-3 is clear, thoe next "3 guys in the top-6" can be considered Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev, Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander and even a couple others. There is no major drop within this group at all.

Agreed. I rarely find Morreale's articles all that thoughtful and seeing that comment is a head-scratcher.

 

[Husko]

I think Chyrchrun's 'lack of production' is being pretty wildly overstated. He's at .72 PPG in his draft year (same as Juolevi). Ekblad .91. Nurse had .60. Murray .67. Griffin Reinhart .62. Is it Eklbad domination? No. But it's pretty damn good compared to other D that have been drafted high out of juniors. Also, obviously +/- is a far from perfect stat, but the way he completely turned that around says something about his 'stats.'

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I think Chyrchrun's 'lack of production' is being pretty wildly overstated. He's at .72 PPG in his draft year (same as Juolevi). Ekblad .91. Nurse had .60. Murray .67. Griffin Reinhart .62. Is it Eklbad domination? No. But it's pretty damn good compared to other D that have been drafted high out of juniors. Also, obviously +/- is a far from perfect stat, but the way he completely turned that around says something about his 'stats.'

Horrifying comp list outside of Ekblad and maybe Nurse.

 

[Husko]

Horrifying comp list outside of Ekblad and maybe Nurse.

Fair point, those are just the top D taken out of juniors in recent years. Maybe the lesson should be to not draft D out of juniors

Edit: Also, feel free to go further down the lists and pick out 'good' players. I doubt their PPG are any better.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Horrifying comp list outside of Ekblad and maybe Nurse.

3 guys that are or will spend most of their careers in a top pairing and a bust.

 

[stokes84]

Horrifying comp list outside of Ekblad and maybe Nurse.

Defensemen seem to be more hit or miss that high in the draft. That's one of the main things that concerns me. FWIW, Nurse has been pretty awful in my pretty regular viewings of Edmonton. He fits right in with that group.

 

[stokes84]

3 guys that are or will spend most of their careers in a top pairing and a bust.

Murray and Nurse have done nothing to validate that statement.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Murray and Nurse have done nothing to validate that statement.

Yet we were fine saying it about Risto the last few years.

 

[stokes84]

Yet we were fine saying it about Risto the last few years.

Risto is younger than Murray and the same age as Nurse. And most of us were not writing his name in pen on a top unit until we saw a long stretch were he showed he was capable, which wasn't until the end of last season.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Yet we were fine saying it about Risto the last few years.

Getting either's equivalent with our top 3-4 pick means getting nothing from that asset for 3-4 years.

Hard pass.

 

[TehDoak]

Defensemen seem to be more hit or miss that high in the draft. That's one of the main things that concerns me. FWIW, Nurse has been pretty awful in my pretty regular viewings of Edmonton. He fits right in with that group.

D-men have a much higher bust factor in the top 5. Mostly because, with rare exception (Ekblad) d-men take longer to develop and harder to predict at 18 than a forward does.

No d-men in the draft (IMHO) will be skating in the NHL for a few years. I have zero qualms trading back if we land outside the top 3. If we could get something like 7-10 + 18-21 for pick 4-6, it'd be a no brainer.

 

[Husko]

IIRC, the numbers suggest dmen aren't as sure of a thing at the top, top of the draft, but essentially it's more necessary to draft them 'high' (as in top 15) than forwards because theyre harder to find late than forwards.

 

[OkimLom]

I think with Murray's expedited rebuild, people are scared of drafting a defenseman so high because of how long one takes to develop. If he didn't, and we had this scenario come up people wouldn't be so tied into the whole time frame.

 

[Baccus]

I think with Murray's expedited rebuild, people are scared of drafting a defenseman so high because of how long one takes to develop. If he didn't, and we had this scenario come up people wouldn't be so tied into the whole time frame.

I think Murray himself has said he doesn't like taking defensemen real high in the draft, probably for the reasons others have mentioned. Granted what you prefer to do and how your draft slot and the draft board falls to you can be very different things.

It will be interesting to see what young D are actually left to RFA status vs who else gets preemptively signed. I don't think anything too crazy will happen till Murray knows where the first round pick ends up with the new lottery.

 

[Husko]

Has anyone seen any of Cam Dineen this season? He's putting up incredible numbers in the OHL. Left handed shot, puck moving Dman, but haven't seen much talk of him. Second round guy? Third round guy?

 

[1972]

Has anyone seen any of Cam Dineen this season? He's putting up incredible numbers in the OHL. Left handed shot, puck moving Dman, but haven't seen much talk of him. Second round guy? Third round guy?

I would guess anywhere from 15 to 40th.

 

[MackAttack26]

Has anyone seen any of Cam Dineen this season? He's putting up incredible numbers in the OHL. Left handed shot, puck moving Dman, but haven't seen much talk of him. Second round guy? Third round guy?

Very impressive growth this year. Terrific offense and it's not like his defense is really bad either. In my top-30 although I like him more than most. Definitely should be a target with our early 2nd

 

[Dogewow]

This time last year I was a big fan of Chychrun and what he projected to be (potential to be an Ekblad/Doughty level defenseman). But after seeing what's happened this year and reading this thread more and more, I kinda hope that Murray somehow swings a deal with Anaheim in the offseason for Cam Fowler or some other defenseman who's on the outs.

 

[Ace]

I'd trade for a d further along way before throwing a top pick on one. Not just the risk of them being a bust...but you are likely waiting years to find out anyway. Forwards are less risk and less wait so I'm always for using high picks on them first.

 

[Husko]

This time last year I was a big fan of Chychrun and what he projected to be (potential to be an Ekblad/Doughty level defenseman). But after seeing what's happened this year and reading this thread more and more, I kinda hope that Murray somehow swings a deal with Anaheim in the offseason for Cam Fowler or some other defenseman who's on the outs.

For all the talk of 'regression' in draft year production, it's funny you mention Doughty, who regressed from 74 points in 67 games in his 2nd junior season to 50 points in 58 games in his draft season.

 

[Dogewow]

For all the talk of 'regression' in draft year production, it's funny you mention Doughty, who regressed from 74 points in 67 games in his 2nd junior season to 50 points in 58 games in his draft season.

Yes but it's clear there's a difference between the two in terms of how they were perceived in their draft years. Chychrun wouldn't be ranked behind Tkachuk and occasionally behind Juolevi on some lists if he was thought of as highly as Doughty. Probably would be in the top 3 consistently at least.

I don't know, maybe people are reading too much into his "regression". I read an interesting post on the prospects forum, stating that a lot of his said "regression" had to do with the coaching and structure change not allowing for as much offensive creativity and risk taking.

 

[Chainshot]

The thing that surprised me the most about Dineen was that he isn't part of those Dineens (Bill, Kevin, Gord, Peter).