2016 Draft Thread – Host: Buffalo – Lottery: April 30th – Part 2

[MyersMagic57*]

I'm hoping for Juolevi at this point so we can have a future first D pairing of Risto-Juo

Unless we win the lottery!!

 

[truthbluth]

If we don't win the lottery, the prospect we get will be a few years away from contributing. All things being equal, I'd swing for the fences with a high upside prospect (assuming the top 2 LHD are gone), and grab a guy like McLeod or Gauthier, who both could be impact players if they hit their ceilings.

 

[Gabrielor]

Is the chychrun drop because of his Hockey iq? Or something outside hockey? He checks every other box in the elite sense.

 

[Revelate]

Is the chychrun drop because of his Hockey iq? Or something outside hockey? He checks every other box in the elite sense.

I don't think there is a legitimate reason for the drop. His hockey sense is a strength if anything. He reads the play well in both zones. Sometimes his gap control is off. i don't really look at that as hockey sense though.

I think there's this narrative that he somehow covers up a lesser Hockey IQ because of his elite physically traits, and that this will get exposed at the next level (a la Bogosian). But i just don't see it. He's very calm under pressure and makes excellent decisions with the puck.

 

[Zman5778]

Is the chychrun drop because of his Hockey iq? Or something outside hockey? He checks every other box in the elite sense.

I think that the "drop" is a combo thing:

1.) Other prospects (semi-)legitimately rising above him

2.) The perceived general reticence to take defensemen early in the draft, even though 1 or 2 always go top 10

3.) Scouts nitpicking his performance


If we can orchestrate a trade into 4 or 5 to take Chychrun....it would be a coup

 

[Moskau]

Saw Juolevi probably 5 times after the WJC and Chychrun 3 times. Chychrun was much more impressive. Playing for Sarnia doesn't do you many favors in terms of development. It's where prospects go to stagnate.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

For some perspective, here are the top (career) scoring forwards picked between the 5th and 10th picks since 2000:

http://hkref.com/tiny/VpCVG

I wish I could sort by points/game, but unfortunately the table isn't sortable that way. But take a look at those names--getting a guy who will put up 50 points, and maybe in a really good year peak at 60-70...that seems more than reasonable for picking around 8th.

 

[Jim Bob]

For some perspective, here are the top (career) scoring forwards picked between the 5th and 10th picks since 2000:

http://hkref.com/tiny/VpCVG

I wish I could sort by points/game, but unfortunately the table isn't sortable that way. But take a look at those names--getting a guy who will put up 50 points, and maybe in a really good year peak at 60-70...that seems more than reasonable for picking around 8th.

You can export the data and open it in Excel and do the calculations.

Taking out Zacha and his 2 pts in 1 GP, you have 13 guys with 0.6 pts/gp and up:

Vanek
Kessel
Couture
Koivu
Wheeler
Voracek
Okposo
Monahan
Scheifele
Skinner
Brassard
Kadri
Bouchard

Lupul, Michalek, [Nylander], Hartnell, Gagner, Kostitsyn, and Granlund are in that 0.55 to 0.5999 range.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

You can export the data and open it in Excel and do the calculations.

Taking out Zacha and his 2 pts in 1 GP, you have 13 guys with 0.6 pts/gp and up:

Vanek
Kessel
Couture
Koivu
Wheeler
Voracek
Okposo
Monahan
Scheifele
Skinner
Brassard
Kadri
Bouchard

Lupul, Michalek, [Nylander], Hartnell, Gagner, Kostitsyn, and Granlund are in that 0.55 to 0.5999 range.

It's worth noting that almost all of these guys were picked in the 5-7 range, whereas we're most likely picking #8 or #9. I think there's almost a 70% chance that we're picking in one of those two spots. I guess this is splitting hairs but the list would be much less impressive if the range was #7-#10.

 

[1972]

6 week ago I hated the thought of Mike McLeod, but I loved his game on sportsnet in the playoffs.

 

[1972]

Saw Juolevi probably 5 times after the WJC and Chychrun 3 times. Chychrun was much more impressive. Playing for Sarnia doesn't do you many favors in terms of development. It's where prospects go to stagnate.

Chychrun has always been more impressive when i've watched.

 

[Jim Bob]

It's worth noting that almost all of these guys were picked in the 5-7 range, whereas we're most likely picking #8 or #9. I think there's almost a 70% chance that we're picking in one of those two spots. I guess this is splitting hairs but the list would be much less impressive if the range was #7-#10.

But, this is also just looking at forwards and many expect the Sabres to target a LHD in the draft...

Here is a query you might find interesting:

http://hkref.com/tiny/kRizX

D drafted between 8 & 11 overall since 2001 that have played at least 100 NHL games.

Guys like Phaneuf, Hamilton, Ellis, Trouba, Ristolainen, and Brodin are in the list.

If you widen the pick range to 7-14 and drop games played to 82, you pick up some more really good D:

http://hkref.com/tiny/VsylZ

Suter, Seabrook, Shattenkirk, Myers, Fowler, McDonagh, and others start showing up.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

It's worth noting that almost all of these guys were picked in the 5-7 range, whereas we're most likely picking #8 or #9. I think there's almost a 70% chance that we're picking in one of those two spots. I guess this is splitting hairs but the list would be much less impressive if the range was #7-#10.

Yeah, picking the right range was the tough part. I was worried about sample size if I limited it too much. There's also always the issue of relative draft strength--a player who went 5th in one draft might go 9th in this one, while one that went 10th in another draft might have gone 4th in this one, which complicates any comparison.

In the end though, I think the general point is pretty much the same: a good pick at ~#8 will be a 50 point forward with peak years approaching 60-70. A great pick would be anything more than that.

 

[Chainshot]

Draftbuzz has their 2017 rankings up. Do we start clamoring for them to "bring Nolan Patrick home" now?

 

[1972]

Draftbuzz has their 2017 rankings up. Do we start clamoring for them to "bring Nolan Patrick home" now?

I'm surprised Mathew Strome was at 10. He looks like a future Paul Gaustad.

 

[Chainshot]

Canada-Denmark about to drop the puck at the U18's.

I'm surprised Mathew Strome was at 10. He looks like a future Paul Gaustad.

Some of that has to be pedigree though -- his brothers being who they are and all that. I haven't paid much attention to him yet.


Edit - oh my, this could be very ugly. 2-0 Canada already. Never mind -- 2-2.


7-2 after the power outage. Yes, it's only Denmark.

Edit 3: 8-2 and only McLeod and Chychrun haven't made the Nats scoresheet.

 

[Dingo44]

Shea Weber is a beast and he was a second round pick. I say we draft BPA with our first and then pick the most Shea Weber/Duncan Keith like property after.

S. Weber - second round
D. Keith - second round
E. Karlsson - 15th overall.
P. K. Subban - second round
Shayne Gostisbehere - third round


That's three of arguably the top 8 D in the league picked in the second. I think D are almost like goalies where you need to pick a bunch and develop them and see what happens.

I want big gamers with an edge. We need more snarl.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Karlsson was a 1st round pick.

 

[Dingo44]

Karlsson was a 1st round pick.

Thanks. Edited.

 

[1972]

Ok I'm just curious, let's pretend the defenceman and big three forwards are off the table. Who would everyone want in this case?

Say between Nylander, Tkachuk and Dubois?

EDIT: I'm expecting nearly everyone to say Dubois so well say between Nylander and Tkachuk.

 

[MackAttack26]

Ok I'm just curious, let's pretend the defenceman and big three forwards are off the table. Who would everyone want in this case?

Say between Nylander, Tkachuk and Dubois?

BPA, Dubois. And be thrilled he fell that far.

Edit: In that case Tkachuk by a bit.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Ok I'm just curious, let's pretend the defenceman and big three forwards are off the table. Who would everyone want in this case?

Say between Nylander, Tkachuk and Dubois?

EDIT: I'm expecting nearly everyone to say Dubois so well say between Nylander and Tkachuk.

Dubois.

But between the other two, I marginally go with Tkachuk.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Liljegren. What a shot!

 

[TehDoak]

Shea Weber is a beast and he was a second round pick. I say we draft BPA with our first and then pick the most Shea Weber/Duncan Keith like property after.

S. Weber - second round
D. Keith - second round
E. Karlsson - 15th overall.
P. K. Subban - second round
Shayne Gostisbehere - third round


That's three of arguably the top 8 D in the league picked in the second. I think D are almost like goalies where you need to pick a bunch and develop them and see what happens.

I want big gamers with an edge. We need more snarl.

I'm quite certain every front office has the plan to find Shea Weber/Duncan Keith in the 2nd round

 

[Chainshot]

Time for another thread.