Salary Cap: 2016-17 Roster Building XXIII | Insert Witty Thread Title Here

[Dipsy Doodle]

With a team as deep as we are, that will definitely mean losing OS, Hags, or Rust, I guess. That's rough. They'd take Hagelin in a second.

I'd much rather come up with a strategy / agreement with Vegas not to take that 4th D man. I value all of those assets above as much as that 1st rounder, probably including Rust (on 1 more year of his ultra-cheap deal).

If we can do that, absolutely. But I think fans of many teams on the site are operating under the assumption that it's a foregone conclusion LV will accept bribes from their team too, which probably isn't realistic.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

If we can do that, absolutely. But I think fans of many teams on the site are operating under the assumption that it's a foregone conclusion LV will accept bribes from their team too, which probably isn't realistic.

We have more of a motivation to pay a very high bribe in futures though, probably more than almost anyone. We actually do need to win now, not in 5 years when that late first will help us. Not to mention if we're talking about losing Dumo or Maatta, those guys will probably still be with us in 5 years, and around their prime.

 

[Riptide]

I love how Riptide keeps mentioning how many goals Guentzel was on the ice for in such a small sample size (which is clearly unsustainable but he's acting like it's not), but he keeps saying how Guentzel's goal totals were clearly unsustainable so he basically only had 1 goal and 2 points in 5 games. No bias there at all

Is it? Young players being poor defensively isn't exactly something new or unusual. Are you suggesting that his shooting percentage is sustainable - because that's what you're alluding.

So why is the goals for stat unsustainable, but the goals against means he isn't NHL ready?

If you guys can't see the difference between something that is without a doubt clearly unsustainable (such as shooting 37.5%) and something that you can only hope will improve between now and the playoffs (his poor defensive game), then I don't know what to say, other than that you're living in some fantasy land.

The 37.5 shooting percentage is unsustainable. This isn't speculation, conjecture or hopes and dreams - it's a ****ing fact. Crosby is shooting at 23%. The rest of the top 10 goal scorers in the league are shooting at an average of 15.8%. So again, there is no doubt that what he shot at is unsustainable. It WILL go down - again this isn't speculation but a fact.

His defensive game however should improve. No guarantee's, but given his age, potential, experience and IQ, that's probably a safe bet. The question is when. Could it be next month (if he was up)? Maybe. Could it be next year? Maybe. Could it be in 2 years? Maybe. The thing is, we do not know. What we do know is that his shooting percentage IS unsustainable. Which means if you're playing the percentages/odds, you send him back to round out his game while you have a healthy team. When we get another injury to the top 9, call him back up and see what he's learned and where he is. What you don't do is trade someone to open up a spot in the roster and depend on him having improved (or that he will improve come playoff time). That's just asking for trouble.

 

[Ogrezilla]

seriously, can you just point out where he even played badly defensively? Were any of those goals his fault? What did he do wrong? That's the point. That GA stat doesn't tell us that he is bad defensively. You're using a tiny sample size of a long term stat as if it actually means something, but it doesn't. Yes, that shooting percentage is unsustainable. And that GA stat is meaningless. You're using that meaningless stat as a reason he isn't NHL ready though, which is just as ridiculous as anyone who uses his 3 goals in 5 games as an argument for him.

 

[Riptide]

A deal for Landeskog in the off-season before the expansion draft could theoretically clear up a few problems.

Horny + Dumo for Landeskog?

And how do we replace Dumo?

Not that I think getting either Landeskog or Duchene are going to happen, but it's a lot easier to replace a 2nd pairing LD then it is to replace a 2nd pairing RD.

I mean just go look at the FAs for this summer. RDs you have Wideman, Shattenkirk, Stone and Franson. LDs you have Markov, Kulikov, Del Zotto, Oduya, Russell, Hainsey, Alzner, Smith, Campbell, Quincey, Tyutin. Daley can play either.

Obviously there's some I'd have a lot more interest in than others, and some I'd have no interest in. But from purely an ability to fill a hole in FA, finding a LD wouldn't be nearly as hard as finding a RD if Schultz isn't here next season. The same can be said if you're looking for a trade. Lots of middle pairing LDs kicking around. There's a lot less middling pairing RDs around.

 

[The Greatest 101]

Is Landeskog that good? Horny and Dumo are a hefty price to pay.

 

[ColePens]

seriously, can you just point out where he even played badly defensively? Were any of those goals his fault? What did he do wrong? That's the point. That GA stat doesn't tell us that he is bad defensively. You're using a tiny sample size of a long term stat as if it actually means something, but it doesn't. Yes, that shooting percentage is unsustainable. And that GA stat is meaningless. You're using that meaningless stat as a reason he isn't NHL ready though, which is just as ridiculous as anyone who uses his 3 goals in 5 games as an argument for him.

I'm thinking the fact that no reply has been made over a bunch of different threads is enough evidence to tell you he's just saying it, and it won't be backed up.

I'm a diehard x's and o's fan. I love hockey x's and o's, but it's really difficult nowadays to tell you when "the details" were messed up because 1) TV angle doesn't show everything and 2) we aren't there to hear what Sully is saying regarding where he wants players to go. Hockey is no longer a simple game. It's so structured anymore. A media member or source would have to get that information and it didn't happen. Sully ain't going to tell you his game plan either.

So from what I saw, the only thing that stood out is how Guentzel struggled on the wall in the d-zone in getting the puck out. Teams have hemmed us in along the wall before. It's where the offensive battle is often won. SJ did it to us. Philly used to do it to us. Tampa did it to us. Jake wasn't the only guy struggling with it either. But when it's d-zone related, I think that is what ticked off Sully. Also there had to be something Guentzel was messing up even more in the d-zone/neutral zone that we aren't privileged to know and most likely won't know unless one of our media members flat out asks. But those ****ing idiots are more into finding ways to praise Kunitz/Fleury than asking a very important question.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Just watched the goals against with Guentzel on the ice, and only 1 of them could you even somewhat blame on Guentzel. A faceoff shot got through from the other side, was kicked way out to the d-man on his side and they got another shot through that bounced around and ended up in. The rest are in no way on him. And that one was a lost faceoff by Malkin, Schultz getting skated by out wide allowing a shot, Murray giving a big rebound, and then the shot past Guentzel went wide, got kicked to the front of the net by the forward, then kicked in the net by Murray. If the shot goes on net in the first place, Guentzel blocks it.

The rest aren't even close to being on him from what I can see.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

seriously, can you just point out where he even played badly defensively? Were any of those goals his fault? What did he do wrong? That's the point. That GA stat doesn't tell us that he is bad defensively. You're using a tiny sample size of a long term stat as if it actually means something, but it doesn't. Yes, that shooting percentage is unsustainable. And that GA stat is meaningless. You're using that meaningless stat as a reason he isn't NHL ready though, which is just as ridiculous as anyone who uses his 3 goals in 5 games as an argument for him.

Even though nobody expects Guentzel to score 3 goals every 5 games or sustain that shooting percentage (a straw man that for some reason gets trotted out regularly), at least goals are a direct consequence of Guentzel's play, and he's continued a torrid goal-scoring pace in the minors.

GA over a 5 game sample size with critics simply assuming Guentzel was playing poor defensively rather than providing any support...not so much.

Not that I think getting either Landeskog or Duchene are going to happen, but it's a lot easier to replace a 2nd pairing LD then it is to replace a 2nd pairing RD.

I mean just go look at the FAs for this summer. RDs you have Wideman, Shattenkirk, Stone and Franson. LDs you have Markov, Kulikov, Del Zotto, Oduya, Russell, Hainsey, Alzner, Smith, Campbell, Quincey, Tyutin. Daley can play either.

Obviously there's some I'd have a lot more interest in than others, and some I'd have no interest in. But from purely an ability to fill a hole in FA, finding a LD wouldn't be nearly as hard as finding a RD if Schultz isn't here next season. The same can be said if you're looking for a trade. Lots of middle pairing LDs kicking around. There's a lot less middling pairing RDs around.

True. But I also want to add that I like Dumo a lot, and if there's any reasonable way to bribe LV into not taking him, I'd do it.

I'm just operating under the assumption that we might not automatically be able to bribe our way out of losing a player we don't protect at the expansion draft.

 

[Ogrezilla]

True. But I also want to add that I like Dumo a lot, and if there's any reasonable way to bribe LV into not taking him, I'd do it.

I'm just operating under the assumption that we might not automatically be able to bribe our way out of losing a player we don't protect at the expansion draft.

if its me, I would be willing to give a 1st to have them take one of our 4th line wings if that's what it takes. We're in a position where short term is more important than long term imo. If that's not enough, then I'm not sure what we should do. Its going to suck one way or another. Personally, I don't think we can pay another wing as much money as Lando makes. We would need to sign a 2LD this summer if we trade one of them, and they won't come cheap. At least 6 other teams will be missing their 4th best d-man in that scenario. I think I've been converted to the protect 4D side.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Just watched the goals against with Guentzel on the ice, and only 1 of them could you even somewhat blame on Guentzel. A faceoff shot got through, was kicked way out to the d-man on his side and they got another shot through that bounced around and ended up in. The rest are in no way on him. And that one was a lost faceoff by Malkin, Schultz getting skated by out wide, Murray giving a big rebound, and then the shot went wide, got kicked the the front of the net by the forward, then kicked in the net by Murray. If the shot goes on net in the first place, Guentzel blocks it.

The rest aren't even close to being on him from what I can see.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

if its me, I would be willing to give a 1st to have them take one of our 4th line wings if that's what it takes. We're in a position where short term is more important than long term imo. If that's not enough, then I'm not sure what we should do. Its going to suck one way or another.

If we went 7F and 3D and paid a 1st to get LV not to pick Dumo, that'd be about perfect.

 

[Ogrezilla]

If we went 7F and 3D and paid a 1st to get LV not to pick Dumo, that'd be about perfect.

yeah, if we can get out of the expansion draft with Sid, Geno, Kessel, Horny, Hags, Rust, Sundqvist, Letang, Maatta, Dumo, Schultz, and Murray then we are golden. I really don't give a damn who they take after that. The question is what kind of return they view as the difference between the worst of those guys and the best of what's left over. Honestly, I have no idea. Here's hoping they go crazy and sign one of the free agents

 

[ColePens]

Maybe the best idea here is making sure MAF waives his NMC, which easily could be already in the works, therefore no issue w/ protecting murray. MAF could go to Vegas if they want to take him.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Just watched the goals against with Guentzel on the ice, and only 1 of them could you even somewhat blame on Guentzel. A faceoff shot got through from the other side, was kicked way out to the d-man on his side and they got another shot through that bounced around and ended up in. The rest are in no way on him. And that one was a lost faceoff by Malkin, Schultz getting skated by out wide allowing a shot, Murray giving a big rebound, and then the shot past Guentzel went wide, got kicked to the front of the net by the forward, then kicked in the net by Murray. If the shot goes on net in the first place, Guentzel blocks it.

The rest aren't even close to being on him from what I can see.

Small sample size, and looking at the specific goals is the right way to look at it, thanks Ogre.

There's plenty of other salient points in Guentzel's favor. Sure, that shooting percentage isn't sustainable. But he's also getting almost 3 shots a game in the A, and he only had a total of 8 shots in 5 games here. So I would argue those low shot totals are not sustainable either. And he was clearly deferring to Geno, and why wouldn't he? He needs to gain confidence, then he'll shoot the puck more. Put him with Bonino, and he'll definitely shoot more.

And let's not forget, he shot 17% in the Calders last year, and is shooting 24% this year in a much larger sample size. The dude has shown great offensive skills so far. You can shelter a player like that, and you can improve those weak areas, nothing saying you have to give him lots of D zone draws. I'm sure they're working on it in WBS, and when he comes up, he'll be better, and then he'll keep getting better.

At this point, I'm not sure what's being argued. The kid has real offensive ability, NHL level ability right now. DK's reported that the org knows he's the real deal, and it won't be a surprise if he's in the top 12 at playoff time.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Why would Vegas take a RFA dman when there's gonna be plenty of good dmen available who they don't have to negotiate with? Look at teams like Minnesota who basically have 6 dmen that could be top 4 guys.

I still think a 2nd round pick and Wilson/Fehr would get the job done.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

if its me, I would be willing to give a 1st to have them take one of our 4th line wings if that's what it takes. We're in a position where short term is more important than long term imo. If that's not enough, then I'm not sure what we should do. Its going to suck one way or another. Personally, I don't think we can pay another wing as much money as Lando makes. We would need to sign a 2LD this summer if we trade one of them, and they won't come cheap. At least 6 other teams will be missing their 4th best d-man in that scenario. I think I've been converted to the protect 4D side.

Sick of not having first round picks. We need to start keeping them. Give up 2 2nds before giving up a first

 

[orby]

Maybe the best idea here is making sure MAF waives his NMC, which easily could be already in the works, therefore no issue w/ protecting murray. MAF could go to Vegas if they want to take him.

If i'm not mistaken it can't work like that. Players with an NMC can't waive it to become eligible for the expansion draft.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Maybe the best idea here is making sure MAF waives his NMC, which easily could be already in the works, therefore no issue w/ protecting murray. MAF could go to Vegas if they want to take him.

if he's actually willing to waive, everything gets so much better. They would likely just flat out take him. But it would certainly be a cheap bribe if they really like Schultz/Dumo or whoever we have to leave exposed.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Why would Vegas take a RFA dman when there's gonna be plenty of good dmen available who they don't have to negotiate with? Look at teams like Minnesota who basically have 6 dmen that could be top 4 guys.

I still think a 2nd round pick and Wilson/Fehr would get the job done.

I hope so.

Sick of not having first round picks. We need to start keeping them. Give up 2 2nds before giving up a first

I'd love to. But if it costs that to keep our team together, I do it.

 

[ColePens]

If i'm not mistaken it can't work like that. Players with an NMC can't waive it to become eligible for the expansion draft.

We discussed it about a month ago and I thought a poster had a quote where it could happen. Yikes. So much unknown. IMO, it's going to kill the deadline and it's going to be the weirdest trade season of all time. That little 2 week period is going to be insane.

 

[Ogrezilla]

If i'm not mistaken it can't work like that. Players with an NMC can't waive it to become eligible for the expansion draft.

so how about he waives his NMC and we trade Fleury for something cheap as a bribe to take Fehr?

edit: I'm still not convinced he will waive it. But here's hoping he's a super nice guy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If i'm not mistaken it can't work like that. Players with an NMC can't waive it to become eligible for the expansion draft.

That's false, players with NMCs can waive to be eligible for the expansion draft.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/official-nhl-expansion-draft-exempt-list-contains-surprises/

There are bound to be some changes to the list before the 72-hour expansion draft begins on June 17. New contracts will be signed, a handful of injured players will be exempted – i.e. New Jersey’s Ryane Clowe, Toronto’s Nathan Horton and Columbus’ David Clarkson – and some may choose to waive their no-move clause in order to be exposed to Vegas.

 

[orby]

Didn't know that. Opens up some interesting options.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Mentioned this elsewhere but for a team in their window like the Pens, you can't afford to lose the identity you've proven can be successful.
You simply can't lose players like Hags and Rust.

Prime example is the Rangers. Reached the final with fast, agreesive style then had to trade away Hags, etc. and now are trying to get their speed back anyway they can with Grabner, etc.

Also, at this point, you can't lose Schultz cuz he's very important to the offense/PP moving forward. He needs to be protected too.