2016-17 Playoff Race: Lightning miss playoffs by one win

[MrClutch86]

Lets be real..Curtis Mc won't win Toronto more than a few games. If Andersen is out for the rest of the year, Toronto can be chased down pretty easily. Only 4 points back.

 

[Glide5]

Wow weird night tonight. Panthers crush the hawks... so guaranteed loss Monday (Woo?). Anderson down, so suddenly the leafs are really, really vulnerable if thats more than a game. Carolina are on a different level as well. This is going to be a wild few games haha.

 

[The Gongshow]

crap.. Chicago got blown out 7-0 that means their gonna destroy us on monday

 

[Nakawick]

if you guys get in, you can do some real damage. If you get the WC2 spot, that side of the bracket will be up for grabs. No one will want to play you.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

if you guys get in, you can do some real damage. If you get the WC2 spot, that side of the bracket will be up for grabs. No one will want to play you.

This is only if both Stamkos and Johnson are healthy and in game shape.

Right now, Kucherov is, almost single-handedly, keeping this team afloat. He should be a top-3 Hart candidate at this point, at WORST.

 

[Rschmitz]

Carolina looks like a very formidable opponent right now and just as good of a chance as us.

We have to keep winning

 

[DFC]

Wow weird night tonight. Panthers crush the hawks... so guaranteed loss Monday (Woo?). Anderson down, so suddenly the leafs are really, really vulnerable if thats more than a game. Carolina are on a different level as well. This is going to be a wild few games haha.

I was thinking the same thing about Chicago. Always sucks to face a good team that's just been embarrassed.

 

[AlphaCatalyst]

Carolina looks like a very formidable opponent right now and just as good of a chance as us.

We have to keep winning

 

[MattM92]

Things really couldn't have gone better for us last night. Of course none of that matters if we lose to the Hawks. Every game is 'must win' from here on out.

 

[Maelmoor]

Just a simple breakdown of how many wins (not counting in loser points) each team needs to get a certain sum of points, Toronto needs to win half of their games to reach 93 points as an example.

I think 93-94 points will be enough.

Tor 8 games - 85p
101 - 8 wins
99 - 7 wins
97 - 6 wins
95 - 5 wins
93 - 4 wins

Bos 7 games - 84 p
98 - 7 wins
96 - 6 wins
94 - 5 wins

Isles 8 games - 82 p
98 - 8 wins
96 - 7 wins
94 - 6 wins

Tampa - 8 games - 81 p
97 - 8 win
95 - 7 wins
93 - 6 wins

Car 9 games - 79 p
97 - 9 wins
95 - 8 wins
93 - 7 wins

So yes, we need to win most of the remaining games but so does the others but minimum would be six wins in eight games.

 

[DFC]

I feel like tonight's the night where our glimmer of hope dies.

 

[RDTBay4]

Andersen is on the ice today for pre-practice for TOR. Word is he has a jaw injury? No real status update, but according to leaf's media the coaches are watching him closely and he's not doing a typical practice. Who knows.

 

[DFC]

1-0 Preds

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

Toronto - 74gp / 85pts
-----------------
Boston - 75gp / 84pts
-----------------
Tampa Bay - 75gp / 83pts
New York - 75gp / 82pts
Carolina - 74gp / 80pts



Both the 2nd wildcard and the 3rd Atlantic playoff spot in striking range.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Not only that, but with the head-to-head left against the Bruins (albeit, in Boston), the Lightning are in full control of their playoff fate. But, remember, they're going to have to clear the Bruins point total to finish ahead of them; ROW is 36 to 33 in favor of Boston, and barring a sudden barrage of shootout wins for the Bruins that is matched in ROW's by the Lightning, that tiebreaker isn't gonna have any chance of finishing in their favor (and the Bruins would win the second tiebreaker anyway, and that one is already clinched).

Even still, at one point back, a regulation win and matching Boston otherwise does the trick. Obviously, the Islanders remain in that mix as well.

I think I saw on the B's schedule that they still have two games left against Nashville? I know they play at Chicago on Sunday. It's going to be interesting.

Obviously, from a TB perspective, this matters very little if they don't clean up against Detroit like they absolutely have to on Thursday night. Detroit's going to be playing their 4th game in 5 nights by then, while TB will have played one game in that same time frame. No excuses on Thursday. None.

 

[DFC]

Not only that, but with the head-to-head left against the Bruins (albeit, in Boston), the Lightning are in full control of their playoff fate. But, remember, they're going to have to clear the Bruins point total to finish ahead of them; ROW is 36 to 33 in favor of Boston, and barring a sudden barrage of shootout wins for the Bruins that is matched in ROW's by the Lightning, that tiebreaker isn't gonna have any chance of finishing in their favor (and the Bruins would win the second tiebreaker anyway, and that one is already clinched).

Even still, at one point back, a regulation win and matching Boston otherwise does the trick. Obviously, the Islanders remain in that mix as well.

I think I saw on the B's schedule that they still have two games left against Nashville? I know they play at Chicago on Sunday. It's going to be interesting.

Obviously, from a TB perspective, this matters very little if they don't clean up against Detroit like they absolutely have to on Thursday night. Detroit's going to be playing their 4th game in 5 nights by then, while TB will have played one game in that same time frame. No excuses on Thursday. None.

We did pull into a ROW tie with NYI as a bonus though.

You have to wonder what's going through Stamkos's mind right now.

 

[The Macho King]

How the hell we're still in this thing, I don't know.

 

[DFC]

Bs get Nashville on back-to-backs. Tall order for the Preds.

 

[These Are The Days]

Huge opportunities tomorrow and we don't even have to play. Plus the Wings are gonna have to be dead tired by the time they get to us.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Lightning's odds improved 12.5% tonight with the results around the league, putting them now at 32.2% overall. Islanders had a horrific night and saw their chances pretty much slashed in half, from 29.9% to 15.7%.

Here are the would-be bad results:

Boston win (vs. NSH) = -3.9%
Toronto win (vs. FLA) = -2.2%
Carolina win (vs. DET) = -0.6% (meh)

On the plus side:

Boston loss = +6.1% (+0.6% if OT)
Toronto loss = +4.4% (+1.3% if OT)

So, umm, Perds and Cats plz.

Kinda crazy to think that, if the results did go TB's way tomorrow, and obviously that's far from a given and probably not something we should count on, that the Lightning would be at the point of being a virtual coin flip chance at making it; 32.2% + 10.5 = 42.7%, which isn't exactly bad (it also seems...rather low, doesn't it? But I'm not going down this rabbit hole any further).

 

[Flat Ronnie]

We did pull into a ROW tie with NYI as a bonus though.

You have to wonder what's going through Stamkos's mind right now.

Don't expect much from him even if he returns. He's gonna need at least 2 games to get into it. The games gonna blow by him at first.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Yeah, and I think we learned that lesson with Stralman in last year's ECF.

(before Game 2)

"Yes, Stralman's back!"

(three minutes into Game 2)

"Well, he sure got caught flat-footed on his own blueline, huh?"

And it didn't get much better from there, either. And Stamkos is coming back from a much longer layoff in that scenario, too.

 

[The Macho King]

Well, Stralman is in a position where any mistake likely ends up hitting twine.

Stamkos will be displacing Namestnikov. I'll take Stamkos at 10% over Vlad at 100%.

 

[MattM92]

How the hell we're still in this thing, I don't know.

We're in the weakest division in the NHL. First place in our division would be 5th place in the Metro.

 

[Sky04]

How the hell we're still in this thing, I don't know.

Other teams suck as well, seriously we're battling Toronto and the Islanders...