Speculation: 2016/17 Avalanche Head Coach

[ABasin]

I'd call BS on that... What forward hasn't taken strides in different areas since Army has been around? Duchene doesn't spin move as much, is better down low, and is better on faceoffs. MacK is way better without the puck (still needs refinement and it hasn't come as quickly as we all want). Grigo has been more engaged and has learned to use his frame better with the puck. ROR took great strides offensively. Landy's game has transitioned into one that should be better for the long haul. I'm failing to see where individual players didn't develop.

I think that's an incomplete analysis, and doesn't address Cobra's point at all.

It's nice that Duchene, Landeskog, and MacKinnon have developed some skills in their years in the league. But when a player is a #1/#2/#3 overall pick, the most important development piece to maximize is offense. After all, that's the reason those players were drafted at the position(s) they were. "Not spinning in circles" is a nice little development trait, but it isn't in the same stratosphere as scoring. If I look at my teenagers when they're seniors as compared to freshmen, the fact that they can rake leaves (or whatever) better 4 years down the road isn't really satisfactory in and of itself in terms of assessing their development.

I would say MacKinnon's development is disappointing right now. He's still young, and is still developing, so clearly all is not lost. But he hasn't moved forward offensively much at all since his rookie season. (I still maintain the Avs would be better with him at wing and Duchene at center, but I realize they won't do that, so the point is moot). He's moved from mediocre to a bit better than mediocre defensively in 3 years, yes that's nice. He hasn't moved much offensively in those same 3 years. That's not quality development of a #1 overall pick with that kind of skill/talent.

Duchene peaked offensively early also, and I would rate his offensive development as so-so. In Landeskog's case, I think his offensive upside was much more limited than the other two in the first place.

O'Reilly's development was fabulous in just about every facet.

None of that is meant to judge Army. I don't think any of us really have any idea what coach specifically does what with which player, etc. It's hard to pin development just on a coach or an assistant coach, I think. The player has quite a bit to do with it also.

Army is in charge of the power play I believe, and that thing hasn't been very impressive for awhile. I'd like to see fundamental changes there, with a new PP coach or not.

 

[henchman21]

I think that's an incomplete analysis, and doesn't address Cobra's point at all.

It's nice that Duchene, Landeskog, and MacKinnon have developed some skills in their years in the league. But when a player is a #1/#2/#3 overall pick, the most important development piece to maximize is offense. After all, that's the reason those players were drafted at the position(s) they were. "Not spinning in circles" is a nice little development trait, but it isn't in the same stratosphere as scoring. If I look at my teenagers when they're seniors as compared to freshmen, the fact that they can rake leaves (or whatever) better 4 years down the road isn't really satisfactory in and of itself in terms of assessing their development.

I would say MacKinnon's development is disappointing right now. He's still young, and is still developing, so clearly all is not lost. But he hasn't moved forward offensively much at all since his rookie season. (I still maintain the Avs would be better with him at wing and Duchene at center, but I realize they won't do that, so the point is moot). He's moved from mediocre to a bit better than mediocre defensively in 3 years, yes that's nice. He hasn't moved much offensively in those same 3 years. That's not quality development of a #1 overall pick with that kind of skill/talent.

Duchene peaked offensively early also, and I would rate his offensive development as so-so. In Landeskog's case, I think his offensive upside was much more limited than the other two in the first place.

O'Reilly's development was fabulous in just about every facet.

Duchene peaked at a normal age and at a near PPG level... if people expected more from Duchene, they overestimated his potential. MacK isn't even 21... he is a few years away from his peak still... his development isn't perfect, but he is a far more complete player than when he entered the league.

People may call it incomplete analysis, I call it not wasting my breath. Army is hated around these parts and no analysis will ever get people to give him the light of day. I could go on and on with examples and analysis... it wouldn't matter. People would still tar and feather him.

 

[ABasin]

Duchene peaked at a normal age and at a near PPG level... if people expected more from Duchene, they overestimated his potential. MacK isn't even 21... he is a few years away from his peak still... his development isn't perfect, but he is a far more complete player than when he entered the league.

People may call it incomplete analysis, I call it not wasting my breath. Army is hated around these parts and no analysis will ever get people to give him the light of day. I could go on and on with examples and analysis... it wouldn't matter. People would still tar and feather him.

Yeah, Army does seem to get tossed around a bit in here. I don't have any axe to grind there, except that I believe the power play should be better with the top-end talent Colorado has on its roster.

 

[henchman21]

The Avs have pretty much always lacked a true PP QB (Barrie is coming around there finally) and haven't had a great shot from the point or half circle... I think you need those two things to be an above average PP. Army has been pretty average in most of his years here. The exception being the year where ROR had 9 ppg by himself (21st in the league that year). The only individual year better for a player was Iggy last year and that was the Avs' attempt as using a shooter from faceoff dot. Yeah he could be better, but I don't think the tools were available for a top 10 power play either.

 

[AvalancheFan19]

The Avs have pretty much always lacked a true PP QB (Barrie is coming around there finally) and haven't had a great shot from the point or half circle... I think you need those two things to be an above average PP. Army has been pretty average in most of his years here. The exception being the year where ROR had 9 ppg by himself (21st in the league that year). The only individual year better for a player was Iggy last year and that was the Avs' attempt as using a shooter from faceoff dot. Yeah he could be better, but I don't think the tools were available for a top 10 power play either.

I think our PP has become predictable and easy to defend. It's tiresome watching the same set up over and over. Sometimes it will work, especially with Iginla's one timer but it's growing old. I still feel we haven't utilized Mackinnon to his full potential on the PP. We cycle up high far too often and are not as effective as we should be down low. When O'Reilly and Duchene were cycling down low in Roy's first year it was a treat to watch. Opened up a lot of opportunities as well.

 

[henchman21]

I think our PP has become predictable and easy to defend. It's tiresome watching the same set up over and over. Sometimes it will work, especially with Iginla's one timer but it's growing old. I still feel we haven't utilized Mackinnon to his full potential on the PP. We cycle up high far too often and are not as effective as we should be down low. When O'Reilly and Duchene were cycling down low in Roy's first year it was a treat to watch. Opened up a lot of opportunities as well.

I don't disagree... the NHL is a copycat league and ~20 teams were running very similar power plays. Yeah that makes them easy to defend, I think people forget that Army ran the PP in 13-14 too... he has had good and bad years in that area. He is an average assistant coach and will be average schematically.

One more PP goal last year and the Avs would have been ahead of Pittsburgh. That is how small the difference was.

 

[AvalancheFan19]

I don't disagree... the NHL is a copycat league and ~20 teams were running very similar power plays. Yeah that makes them easy to defend, I think people forget that Army ran the PP in 13-14 too... he has had good and bad years in that area. He is an average assistant coach and will be average schematically.

One more PP goal last year and the Avs would have been ahead of Pittsburgh. That is how small the difference was.

I wasn't necessarily directing my post at Army, just at how the PP seemed ineffective and needed change. Can't disagree, there is only so much you can do. I think this team could benefit from an entire new bench however.

I did not know that, interesting. Pittsburgh was absolutely unstoppable 5on5 in the second half of the season and POs.

 

[henchman21]

I think this team could benefit from an entire new bench however.

I really, really doubt that happens and is setting yourself up for disappointment. Finding a head coach is one thing... those contracts have outs and most teams won't hold back their assistants (some do... Tampa and LA are notorious for it). Finding new assistants this late would be picking from the bottom of the barrel and likely worse coaches than the Avs currently have. Change for change's sake isn't always the best course of action.

IMO Army won't be here for 17-18, but I think he is a near lock for 16-17.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

I'm quite hopeful this whole saga ends soon and we get a coach to start looking into instead of speculating about. The team can't afford to drag their feet too much anyways (not saying that they are).

 

[AvalancheFan19]

I really, really doubt that happens and is setting yourself up for disappointment. Finding a head coach is one thing... those contracts have outs and most teams won't hold back their assistants (some do... Tampa and LA are notorious for it). Finding new assistants this late would be picking from the bottom of the barrel and likely worse coaches than the Avs currently have. Change for change's sake isn't always the best course of action.

IMO Army won't be here for 17-18, but I think he is a near lock for 16-17.

Fair enough. I should have specified that for 17-18 a new bench will be needed. I don't necessarily think this year we need a new bench but definitely should let out HC next off season pick who he wants to run with. Do we have any idea how much longer the decision will take? I obviously do not want it to be rushed but I am antsy and curious . 1-2 more weeks?

 

[CalderKing21]

Most who are down on Mack are comparing and contrasting what stud #1 picks usually achieve vs what he has done.

Year 1 you usually see flashes of potential greatness, which Mack did indeed flash.
Year 2 they take the next step and become a big time scoring force, Mack regressed.
Year 3 that is usually when you begin to see them become dominant in controlling the game and being someone the entire opposing defense fears and has to account for.
No one can really say that about Mack.

He has had injuries each time he has seemingly begun to hit his stride.
He has to be the franchise, one could argue that he has yet to even surpass Duchene in terms of full season play.

We all know he is only 21 and that he is still improving, but as a #1 overall pick... he should be better than he currently is showing, in theory.
The fear then becomes does he even have another level he can go to? Is this the best he can do on offense and the rest of his development will come from defensive knowledge and tactics?

In fairness to Mack you can also point to Ed Jovanovski(6th year), Joe Thorton(4th year), Vincent Lecavalier(5th year), Rick DiPietro(3rd year), Marc-Andre Fleury(3rd year), Erik Johnson(6th year), John Tavares(3rd year), Taylor Hall(4th year) as guys who did not break out in their first 2 years and finally it began to click for them later on.