2015 NHL Re-Draft #17

[stl76]

View attachment 137115

uh no. Dermott was much more productive, better possession, better penalty differential, better gf%, and better xgf%. Both were very sheltered and had the same TOI, although Dermott had tougher zone starts and inferior linemates and Dunn had slightly tougher QoC

Pretty picture, but if that's your main argument then consider me unconvinced. It doesn't even have raw totals, just "percents." Dermott was NOT much more productive, this graph does not change either players' point totals. Dunn achieved more in a sample size 2x larger than Dermott's. Text book case of using stats poorly. If you cannot see that Dermott's blue lines are clearly effected by a small sample and extremely sheltered minutes, then I don't know what to tell you.

Dermott played 37 EXTREMELY sheltered games on one of the highest scoring teams in the league and put up good offensive metrics. Lol @ "Dunn had slightly tougher QoC." For as much as some leafs fans pump their own players tires based on QoC, it's humorous to me that now it doesn't seem to matter so much. And yeah Dunn had better QoT, he had to actually play up tough minutes up the line up! Tougher zone starts against 4th liners is not exactly a feather in Dermott's cap IMO. Their penalty differential is pretty inconsequential here (at 5v5 Dunn took 7 and Dermott took 3...Dunn also played twice as many minutes).

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Pretty picture, but if that's your main argument then consider me unconvinced. It doesn't even have raw totals, just "percents." Dermott was NOT much more productive, this graph does not change either players' point totals. Dunn achieved more in a sample size 2x larger than Dermott's. Text book case of using stats poorly. If you cannot see that Dermott's blue lines are clearly effected by a small sample and extremely sheltered minutes, then I don't know what to tell you.

Dermott played 37 EXTREMELY sheltered games on one of the highest scoring teams in the league and put up good offensive metrics. Lol @ "Dunn had slightly tougher QoC." For as much as some leafs fans pump their own players tires based on QoC, it's humorous to me that now it doesn't seem to matter so much. And yeah Dunn had better QoT, he had to actually play up tough minutes the line up! Tougher zone starts against 4th liners is not exactly a feather in Dermott's cap IMO. Their penalty differential is pretty inconsequential here.

they had the same amount of points at 5v5 except Dermott played half the games. it's hard not to call him better offensively. what more did Dunn achieve exactly? Because it sure looks like nothing. I said pretty clearly that Dermott was sheltered. You're the one who can't admit that Dunn was sheltered too. Both played in favourable situations for rookies, which is pretty normal for young defensemen. Dermott had better results, period

 

[M2Beezy]

Next poll?

Yeah this is a joke wheres the OP??

 

[stl76]

they had the same amount of points at 5v5 except Dermott played half the games. it's hard not to call him better offensively. what more did Dunn achieve exactly? Because it sure looks like nothing. I said pretty clearly that Dermott was sheltered. You're the one who can't admit that Dunn was sheltered too. Both played in favourable situations for rookies, which is pretty normal for young defensemen. Dermott had better results, period

What more did Dunn achieve? About 35 more games against tougher competition with similar offensive production. Of course both rookies were sheltered, I never denied that. The difference is that Dermott was sheltered to a significantly larger extent, and that QoC only seems to matter when it favors leafs players.

Congrats to Dermott for scoring well at 5v5 in a small sample against 4th lines and bottom pairings on one of the highest scoring teams in the league tho.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

What more did Dunn achieve? About 35 more games against tougher competition with similar offensive production. Of course both rookies were sheltered, I never denied that. The difference is that Dermott was sheltered to a significantly larger extent, and that QoC only seems to matter when it favors leafs players.

Congrats to Dermott for scoring well at 5v5 against 4th lines and bottom pairings on one of the highest scoring teams in the league tho.

producing the same amount of points in twice as many games doesn't count as a greater achievement

Of course QoC matters, that's why I said it was a point in Dunn's favour. But he was still only in the 20th percentile for that category. They're still pretty much two bottom pairing guys. The gap in quality of teammates and zone starts was significantly larger, but you want to ignore that. Dermott had to drag around the ghost of Roman Polak and didn't get as many favourable zone starts. All that stuff matters for context. Dermott still produced points at a better rate and had better results in all those key categories like possession, gf%, and xgf%. You're trying to hang your hat on the fact that you think Dunn's bottom pairing minutes were difficult enough to counter all that, but they aren't

 

[stl76]

producing the same amount of points in twice as many games doesn't count as a greater achievement

Of course QoC matters, that's why I said it was a point in Dunn's favour. But he was still only in the 20th percentile for that category. They're still pretty much two bottom pairing guys. The gap in quality of teammates and zone starts was significantly larger, but you want to ignore that. Dermott had to drag around the ghost of Roman Polak and didn't get as many favourable zone starts. All that stuff matters for context. Dermott still produced points at a better rate and had better results in all those key categories like possession, gf%, and xgf%. You're trying to hang your hat on the fact that you think Dunn's bottom pairing minutes were difficult enough to counter all that, but they aren't

Dermott scored 13 points in 37 games. Dunn scored 24 in 75. That's .35 PPG vs .32. Toronto scored 270 goals last season (tied for 3rd in the league). The Blues scored 223 (24th in the league).

I am not ignoring the bolded, I'm saying it's false. The gap in QoC is a more important factor than QoT and zone starts. You're trying to use a relative measure (percentiles) in an absolute comparison (41 vs 13 and 11 vs 44). It doesn't work like that.

Dunn played the last quarter of the season on the Blues' second pairing due to numerous injuries and his own stellar play. How did Dermott look on the leafs second pairing for an extended period?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Dermott scored 13 points in 37 games. Dunn scored 24 in 75. That's .35 PPG vs .32. Toronto scored 270 goals last season (tied for 3rd in the league). The Blues scored 223 (24th in the league).

I am not ignoring the bolded, I'm saying it's false. The gap in QoC is a more important factor than QoT and zone starts. You're trying to use a relative measure (percentiles) in an absolute comparison (41 vs 13 and 11 vs 44). It doesn't work like that.

Dunn played the last quarter of the season on the Blues' second pairing due to numerous injuries and his own stellar play. How did Dermott look on the leafs second pairing for an extended period?

Dermott didn't get powerplay time. isn't it a bit disingenuous to ignore that? Dermott was the 2nd most productive defenseman on the Leafs at 5v5, Dunn was 5th on the Blues

QoC vs zone starts and QoT is subjective at best. even if I agree that QoC is still more important rather than it being pretty much a wash, it still doesn't make up for Dermott being better in every category at 5v5. And even if Dunn played on the second pair, it doesn't erase all the sheltered minutes he had earlier in the year that boosted his numbers

 

[stl76]

Dermott didn't get powerplay time. isn't it a bit disingenuous to ignore that?

QoC vs zone starts and QoT is subjective at best. even if I agree that QoC is still more important rather than it being pretty much a wash, it still doesn't make up for Dermott being better in every category at 5v5. And even if Dunn played on the second pair, it doesn't erase all the sheltered minutes he had earlier in the year that boosted his numbers

Dunn's numbers were not boosted early in the year. First 37 games: 3G 4A 7P; last 38 games: 2G 15A 17P.

Vince Dunn 2017-18 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

^^^Notice how from game 50 or so how many games Dunn played 20+ minutes?

Dunn played well enough to earn time on the Blues' PP. Isn't it a bit disingenuous to ignore that?

Look, I'm not ignoring the fact that Dermott scored more 5v5. I am trying to provide context and point out that Dermott did it on a MUCH higher scoring team against weaker competition.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Dunn's numbers were not boosted early in the year. First 37 games: 3G 4A 7P; last 38 games: 2G 15A 17P. Vince Dunn 2017-18 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

Dunn played well enough to earn time on the Blues' PP. Isn't it a bit disingenuous to ignore that?

Look, I'm not ignoring the fact that Dermott scored more 5v5. I am trying to provide context and point out that Dermott did it on a MUCH higher scoring team against weaker competition.

I meant his underlying numbers, not point totals. he did finish the year with pretty much the same QoC as Bortuzzo. What number dman would you classify him as?

and yeah good for Dunn, but it's probably easier than taking Rielly's or Gardiner's spot.

not only did he score more, but his possession numbers, gf%, and xgf% were all better, and as I said, Dermott's scoring among Leafs defensemen was higher than Dunn's place in scoring among Blues defensemen. I'm not trying to put Dunn down, but answer your inquiry as to why anyone would take Dermott over Dunn. Personally I think they're both great

 

[stl76]

I meant his underlying numbers, not point totals. he did finish the year with pretty much the same QoC as Bortuzzo. What number dman would you classify him as?

and yeah good for Dunn, but it's probably easier than taking Rielly's or Gardiner's spot.

not only did he score more, but his possession numbers, gf%, and xgf% were all better, and as I said, Dermott's scoring among Leafs defensemen was higher than Dunn's place in scoring among Blues defensemen. I'm not trying to put Dunn down, but answer your inquiry as to why anyone would take Dermott over Dunn. Personally I think they're both great

What I was trying and perhaps failing to point out is that Dunn got better and better as the season wore on. He started out the year as any rookie would: playing playing sheltered bottom pairing minutes scoring at a modest rate (.19 PPG). He ended the year regularly playing 20+ minutes on the second pairing with some 2nd unit PP time scoring at a remarkable rate (.45 PPG).

If Dunn finished the year with the same QoC as Bortuzzo, and Dermott played was weaker QoC than Dunn, what number dman does that make Dermott? Maybe Dunn finished with the same average QoC as Bortuzzo, I don't have the raw totals in front of me so I'll have to trust you. However anyone who actually watched the Blues can tell you that Dunn played tougher competition, particularly down the final stretch when the Blues were fighting for a playoff spot and Dunn was playing 20+ minutes per game on a pairing with Parayko. And again, what does it say about the competition Dermott faced that it was so much weaker than Bortuzzo/Dunn?

The only argument in favor of Dermott seems to be he was better offensively 5v5. This ignores so much context (TOI, QoC, sample size, team scoring/offense, actually playing defense, PP, etc) that I remain completely unconvinced.

EDIT:

FWIW I think Dermott is great too, not trying to shit all over him as a prospect or the great season he had. I just don't buy the argument for him over Dunn at this point. I'm curious to see if he can replicate his offensive success in a larger sample against tougher competition...it would not surprise me in the slightest if he does.

 

[wintersej]

Dermott and Dunn project as 2nd pairing two-way D on PP2.

Carlo projects as a 2nd pairing right handed shutdown D on PK1.

Which is more rare and valuable? Every team has a Dermott or Dunn or some age on the roster. Well, maybe not Detroit . I can name a lot of teams that really wish they had a Carlo.

 

[M2Beezy]

Dermott and Dunn project as 2nd pairing two-way D on PP2.

Carlo projects as a 2nd pairing right handed shutdown D on PK1.

Which is more rare and valuable? Every team has a Dermott or Dunn or some age on the roster. Well, maybe not Detroit . I can name a lot of teams that really wish they had a Carlo.

Agreed. This should settle it. I think Dunn is getting hella overrated these days. I think it CLEARLY goes:

Carlo
Dermott
Dunn

 

[stl76]

Dermott and Dunn project as 2nd pairing two-way D on PP2.

Carlo projects as a 2nd pairing right handed shutdown D on PK1.

Which is more rare and valuable? Every team has a Dermott or Dunn or some age on the roster. Well, maybe not Detroit . I can name a lot of teams that really wish they had a Carlo.

I disagree with you projection of Dunn. His projection is high end #3/low end #2, PP1 QB IMO.

However, given size, handedness, and defensive acumen...I think it's reasonable to say a lot of teams would draft Carlo ahead of both Dunn and Dermott. Even after struggling a bit and catching a lot of flack this past season, I still think Carlo is a really good player with a lot more to give.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Dermott and Dunn project as 2nd pairing two-way D on PP2.

Carlo projects as a 2nd pairing right handed shutdown D on PK1.

Which is more rare and valuable? Every team has a Dermott or Dunn or some age on the roster. Well, maybe not Detroit . I can name a lot of teams that really wish they had a Carlo.

if Carlo had any offensive acumen to speak of I'd agree, but he's like 5th worst in the league in 5v5 offense. I don't think his defensive game can make up that gap

 

[wintersej]

if Carlo had any offensive acumen to speak of I'd agree, but he's like 5th worst in the league in 5v5 offense. I don't think his defensive game can make up that gap

Valid opinion, but lets see what he does this season. Being a 20 year old tasked with being Krug's defensive protection is a tough role. He 1000% played too passive in that role this past season. And he knows it.

edit: and he did score 16 points the year before at 19 years. Thats right in line with what guys like Stralman and Dumoulin get. And I don't think he is done growing that part of his game. OBVIOUSLY, he will never be known for it... but as much as I don't think Matthews or Nylander are done growing defensively, I don't think Carlo is going to stop growing offensively.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

How do Niku and Dermot compare?

 

[Stizzle]

Agreed. This should settle it. I think Dunn is getting hella overrated these days. I think it CLEARLY goes:

Carlo
Dermott
Dunn

I think Philippe Myers has more upside than any D left. He's just had some injuries and hasn't hit the NHL yet.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

I agree and I too see Dunn as a good #2, PP1 QB. An upgrade on what I see Dermott as, a high end #3 with PP 1/2 QB capabilities.

Dunn
Sprong
Samsonov
Roslovic

 

[dirtydantheflyersman]

Next poll

 

[7even]

Dunn's numbers were not boosted early in the year. First 37 games: 3G 4A 7P; last 38 games: 2G 15A 17P.

Vince Dunn 2017-18 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

^^^Notice how from game 50 or so how many games Dunn played 20+ minutes?

Dunn played well enough to earn time on the Blues' PP. Isn't it a bit disingenuous to ignore that?

Look, I'm not ignoring the fact that Dermott scored more 5v5. I am trying to provide context and point out that Dermott did it on a MUCH higher scoring team against weaker competition.

It's at the very least close to a wash. We'll have a better idea in a year. Don't fault anyone voting either way tbh.

 

[M2Beezy]

So can someone else do #18 please, this is nuts