Prospect Info: 2015 NHL Entry Draft Thread | McKenzie's Final Ranking Released

[herestohoping]

I'm In the Daniel Vladar corner. Hopefully can pick him up with Montreals 2nd?

 

[AUAIOMRN]

Merkley has consistently been ranked somewhere between 12-20 throughout the season. Taking him at #16 wouldn't be a reach. It's possible his popularity among fans have risen thanks to his playoffs but he's a real solid player and worthy of a top20 selection definitely. I have him #15 on my list.

The scouts maybe, but no one here was talking about him until the Memorial Cup (or at earliest when they started showing Kelowna playoff games on TV). He might not be a reach at 16 but he's what we need the least... and I don't get the sense that he's so far ahead of what else would be available that "BPA" applies.

 

[40oz]

The scouts maybe, but no one here was talking about him until the Memorial Cup (or at earliest when they started showing Kelowna playoff games on TV). He might not be a reach at 16 but he's what we need the least... and I don't get the sense that he's so far ahead of what else would be available that "BPA" applies.

Why does any of that matter? A lot of people (myself included) were won over by Merkley after watching him play after the Rockets acquired Draisaitl.

Edit: no one seemed to care about McDavid before the lottery either, maybe the Oilers should stick with Hanifin for consistency's sake.

In terms of need, the Oilers need players who can win. I open to a huge range of players at 16 but what stood out for me with Merkley was he has a unique skillset. He's a top end playmaker playing with a grinders mentally, lots of drive, grit, and determination. Sure he isn't big, but he's strong for his size and battles. I think he is what the Oilers need.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

This guy was picked late when Hockey was in a much different era. Like Nik Lidstrom was a 2nd round pick in his draft, I would think he would have been a top pick in the current era we're in where Talent is evaluated properly (more or less)

That's a big stinky pile of B.S., Henrik Lundqvist was selected in the 7th round and Pekka Rinne was selected in the 8th round and players like Tyler Johnson went undrafted. Scouting has improved and you are less likely to see a future hall of famer selected in the 4th round or later, but these guys still don't have crystal balls and are still capable of mis-evaluating talent.

 

[Zaddy]

The scouts maybe, but no one here was talking about him until the Memorial Cup (or at earliest when they started showing Kelowna playoff games on TV). He might not be a reach at 16 but he's what we need the least... and I don't get the sense that he's so far ahead of what else would be available that "BPA" applies.

Lets put it this way. Merkley in my eyes is a more physical, more driven version of Eberle. Maybe not as much of a scorer. Anyway, this pick is going to take some time to reach the NHL, no matter who we select. 3 years down the road Eberle is entering his final year of his contract. If Merkley is ready by then that would be mean we could offload Eberle for a younger, feistier version while using the return to plug whatever holes we have at that moment.

And that's just one scenario. You never know what's going to happen a few years down the road. We have no depth on the wings and as I said, Eberle might be gone in a few years or maybe Yak will have been traded, who knows? Passing on Merkley because of needs would be stupid if he indeed is the BPA when it's our turn to pick.

 

[s7ark]

Mckenzies lists are usually pretty close to the mark. Once I saw how high he had this guy ranked I was sold! Imagine having one of the top Goalies in the league a few years down the road together with this group. It would fill a huge hole, and some currency whether its a draft pick or by trading a good young prospect needs to be spent in this area if we are to be a good team. I pick the early draft pick particularly this year with two firsts. Any draft pick can miss so the same logic applies to every position drafted.

Any draft pick can miss, but some positions miss more often than others

 

[KMart27]

The most important thing is getting good players. Drafting a player based on need only works if that player becomes good enough. Using the defense as an example, I would rather have six very good left defensemen than three very good left defensemen and three mediocre/borderline right defensemen.

 

[Oilfan2]

Lets put it this way. Merkley in my eyes is a more physical, more driven version of Eberle. Maybe not as much of a scorer. Anyway, this pick is going to take some time to reach the NHL, no matter who we select. 3 years down the road Eberle is entering his final year of his contract. If Merkley is ready by then that would be mean we could offload Eberle for a younger, feistier version while using the return to plug whatever holes we have at that moment.

And that's just one scenario. You never know what's going to happen a few years down the road. We have no depth on the wings and as I said, Eberle might be gone in a few years or maybe Yak will have been traded, who knows? Passing on Merkley because of needs would be stupid if he indeed is the BPA when it's our turn to pick.

Couldn't have said it better..

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

That's a big stinky pile of B.S., Henrik Lundqvist was selected in the 7th round and Pekka Rinne was selected in the 8th round and players like Tyler Johnson went undrafted. Scouting has improved and you are less likely to see a future hall of famer selected in the 4th round or later, but these guys still don't have crystal balls and are still capable of mis-evaluating talent.

Yes they have, you sort of missed the point by a bunch though.

So Lidstrom was draft in an era where European still weren't full appreciated and Hasek was a kid from a Communist Country that "played funny". You can see how that's different, right?

I get that Lundqvist and Rinne were missed, maybe they each grew after their draft year. I don't have the answer. Johnson who was a UFA was probably ALOT better then Johnson as an 18/19 year old draft prospect, that's pretty straight forward.

What I can tell you is, when you look at say the top-15 of draft years, and how many of those guys become regular NHL players? In the last 10 years, is it like 75% (maybe more?). That never used to be the case, so I would say scouting has gotten a lot better, things have changed in the hockey world as well. Do teams still **** up? All the time, but it's not the same as "it was" by a long shot.

 

[Soundwave]

Lets put it this way. Merkley in my eyes is a more physical, more driven version of Eberle. Maybe not as much of a scorer. Anyway, this pick is going to take some time to reach the NHL, no matter who we select. 3 years down the road Eberle is entering his final year of his contract. If Merkley is ready by then that would be mean we could offload Eberle for a younger, feistier version while using the return to plug whatever holes we have at that moment.

And that's just one scenario. You never know what's going to happen a few years down the road. We have no depth on the wings and as I said, Eberle might be gone in a few years or maybe Yak will have been traded, who knows? Passing on Merkley because of needs would be stupid if he indeed is the BPA when it's our turn to pick.

If Merkley is the BPA at that spot ... then take him. Simple as that.

I have no problem with the pick if that's the case.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I'm In the Daniel Vladar corner. Hopefully can pick him up with Montreals 2nd?

I'd be quite happy with Vladar or Sandstrom there. If they can get Samsonov at #33 though I'd probably rather do that although there's a good chance he's gone by then. I'd pass on Blackwood altogether though, I don't see him becoming a good NHL starter.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

I'm In the Daniel Vladar corner. Hopefully can pick him up with Montreals 2nd?

We could call him, "Darth Vladar."

Yes, please.

 

[GMofOilers]

Cant wait to see what we get in return for the 16th pick.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Cant wait to see what we get in return for the 16th pick.

What are you keeping your fingers crossed for? Talbot? Phaneuf? Girardi?

 

[GMofOilers]

What are you keeping your fingers crossed for? Talbot? Phaneuf? Girardi?

Something that improves this team now. Anything....

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Something that improves this team now. Anything....

Everything improves the team, but I need to know what you're keeping your fingers crossed for. Ellis? Lack? Anderson? Braun?

 

[s7ark]

Everything improves the team, but I need to know what you're keeping your fingers crossed for. Ellis? Lack? Anderson? Braun?

16+ for Buff,
16++ for Burns
16+++ for Seabrook

Those are my hopes.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

16+ for Buff,
16++ for Burns
16+++ for Seabrook

Those are my hopes.

I'm in for that as well, I'm curious what GM thinks, as he keeps waxing depression poetic on "what we should expect you guys"

 

[GMofOilers]

16+ for Buff,
16++ for Burns
16+++ for Seabrook

Those are my hopes.

Yup something along those lines. Im really thinking the +'s will be a mix of Yak and others.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Yes they have, you sort of missed the point by a bunch though.

So Lidstrom was draft in an era where European still weren't full appreciated and Hasek was a kid from a Communist Country that "played funny". You can see how that's different, right?

I get that Lundqvist and Rinne were missed, maybe they each grew after their draft year. I don't have the answer. Johnson who was a UFA was probably ALOT better then Johnson as an 18/19 year old draft prospect, that's pretty straight forward.

What I can tell you is, when you look at say the top-15 of draft years, and how many of those guys become regular NHL players? In the last 10 years, is it like 75% (maybe more?). That never used to be the case, so I would say scouting has gotten a lot better, things have changed in the hockey world as well. Do teams still **** up? All the time, but it's not the same as "it was" by a long shot.

You do realize that the same year Lidstrom was selected in the 3rd round, Mats Sundin went 1st overall right, a lot of teams might not have had the budget or put the same emphasis on European scouting, but if teams thought you were really good you could still get drafted really high. In Dominik Hasek's draft year where he went in the 10th round, fellow Czech Frank Musil went 38th overall. I understand the implications of the Cold War made anyone who fell on the wrong side of the iron curtain less desirable, but that doesn't really apply to Lidstrom who is one of the two names you pointed out, he was just underappreciated, it's not like he was blowing the doors off with his 7 points in 34 games he played in his draft year. The only reason teams might not be as strict on how goalies play the game stylistically is because of Hasek, he changed the perception of how goalies can play the game, in the absence of Hasek any goalie who played the game funny would still be heavily undervalued.

Tyler Johnson wasn't drafted for one reason and that is size, in his draft year he was 1 point short of being a point per game player, far less talented players with worse numbers are drafted every single year. NHL teams are just copy cats they see who is successful and then try to take picks based on projecting and hoping players can turn into whatever is currently successful, after Chara became a dominant force (3rd rd pick in 96) there was a huge flux of teams drafting any big d-man with just a bit of skill like Boris Valabik far higher then they should be. After Lucic teams hopped on board drafting big power forwards with limited offensive numbers early e.g. Mitch Moroz, hoping offensive skill would magically come to them. This upcoming draft, cause of Tyler Johnson I'm sure smaller forwards won't go quite as low as is normally the case, most scouting departments are not trail blazers they just follow what has shown to be successful or whatever the most recent trend is.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

Why does any of that matter? A lot of people (myself included) were won over by Merkley after watching him play after the Rockets acquired Draisaitl.

That's what I mean by overexposure. People here fell in love with him because they watched him. But they didn't watch all the other players we might be able to take at 16. I guess it doesn't really matter since we aren't the ones doing the picking.

Tyler Johnson wasn't drafted for one reason and that is size, in his draft year he was 1 point short of being a point per game player, far less talented players with worse numbers are drafted every single year.

His draft year was 2008, not 2009. He had 35 points in 69 games that year. I don't think you'll find many 5'9" players with those numbers that ever come close to making the NHL. Tyler Johnson was just a late bloomer, there's no way around it.

 

[Digger12]

As the day draws near, I'm getting more convinced that the Oilers are going to keep the 16th overall pick rather than trade it. They'll certainly entertain offers, but I bet they won't get offers that Chia will consider full value.

I could see them trading away a 2nd, 3rd and a good prospect for a young NHL dman...but I don't see them giving up the 16th pick unless someone offers them something they just can't say no to.

 

[CupofOil]

16+ for Buff,
16++ for Burns
16+++ for Seabrook

Those are my hopes.

Chiarelli said that he would deal the pick for a younger player who can grow with the group so if we take him at his word, I don't see those guys being options.

Braun or Spurgeon seem to fit that criteria.

The value of the pick should be very interesting because if one of the top prospects unexpectedly drop, the value of the pick goes up exponentially so maybe Chia will try for the homerun with somebody like Burns on draft day if that scenario presents itself.

This is easily going to be the most interesting Oilers draft as long as I've been watching Oiler drafts and not because of McDavid. I sure hope that some of the picks are dealt.

 

[40oz]

That's what I mean by overexposure. People here fell in love with him because they watched him. But they didn't watch all the other players we might be able to take at 16. I guess it doesn't really matter since we aren't the ones doing the picking.

I wouldn't call that overexposure at all, that's just a bias. To be honest i'd rather that the folks on here discussing prospects be bias based on what they saw rather than having their bias' based on second hand rankings/reports, stats, size, nationality etc.

 

[Aceboogie]

Tyler Johnson wasn't drafted for one reason and that is size, in his draft year he was 1 point short of being a point per game player, far less talented players with worse numbers are drafted every single year. NHL teams are just copy cats they see who is successful and then try to take picks based on projecting and hoping players can turn into whatever is currently successful, after Chara became a dominant force (3rd rd pick in 96) there was a huge flux of teams drafting any big d-man with just a bit of skill like Boris Valabik far higher then they should be. After Lucic teams hopped on board drafting big power forwards with limited offensive numbers early e.g. Mitch Moroz, hoping offensive skill would magically come to them. This upcoming draft, cause of Tyler Johnson I'm sure smaller forwards won't go quite as low as is normally the case, most scouting departments are not trail blazers they just follow what has shown to be successful or whatever the most recent trend is.

This is a great assessment. PWFs were overvalued in 2009-2015 and now teams are starting to go for the undervalued skilled players. However this will cause skill guys to be overrated and PWFs to be underrated (maybe not this year, but over the next 4 years). So I actually think Oilers will land that good PWF in rounds 2-5 soon

I think the Russian factor will soon be over too. Tampa has exploited it and Edmonton has to a degree. I dont see many Russian fallers this draft (so Tkachev is about it get it good, small and russian).

In the up coming drafts, teams will have to look at other types of players and league to exploit to look for other undervalued players. I am guessing it will shift to Czech/swiss leagues and BCHL and USHL players