Prospect Info: 2015 NHL Entry Draft Thread | McKenzie's Final Ranking Released

[Soli]

Last thread hit 1k. BTW... love closing thread exactly on 1k.

Since Calgary made the second round and the Penguins lost, is that Penguins first now the 15th overall?

I think the Flames would have to beat the Ducks as well.

16th it is.

^this probably fills our system's needs quite well, though if they do get Jeremy Roy at #16, i doubt they would take a second RD with pick #33. if i had to guess, they'd probably go after a power forward at that spot. could be players like RW Christian Fischer or RW Nikita Korostelev or C Adam Musil, maybe a big Euro like C Alex Dergachyov or LW Filip Ahl....these guys all have great size!

I doubt that. The Ducks appear to be an actually good team, not just one on paper.

I don't expect them to either. I was just referring to them having to make it through to the 3rd round in order for the PIT 1st to become 15 overall.

It's not yet? That's weird, I thought it was per round of the team, or does that not count until Conference finals?

So he's Danny Syvret?

Syvret got like 50 2nd assists on Perry/Schremp goals in London. lol.

Ideally, the Flames gets passed Ducks and then gets swept by the Hawks so the earliest they will be picking is 27th.

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[CornKicker]

look for a trade for a veteran top 2 dman and if nothing is there draft jeremy Roy

 

[SK13]

I like Roy or Kylington in that spot, though I think that pick is pretty much certain to be traded.

 

[Beerfish]

It would be up for grabs under the right circumstance but I would not trade it until we are on the clock. Quite often at least one guy seen as a top 10 guy falls.

I think we are less likely to trade the pick now with PC than we were with MacT who had already visually shipped it off.

 

[Canovin]

Svechnikov or Jeremy Roy if you guys had to choose?

 

[AUAIOMRN]

If the right trade exists, trade it. If not, keep it.

I really don't see how anyone can make a case for anything else. Maybe a better question is: What's the minimum you'd be willing to trade it for?

 

[SK13]

Honestly, a mid-first round pick has limited value. It is not the key, unless in a larger package, for a first pairing defender. There is no "right" deal, in the context of how valuable it is anyway.

There are a lot of defenseman in the NHL I would trade that pick for. A lot of them are expensive second pairing defenseman.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Svechnikov or Jeremy Roy if you guys had to choose?

I like Travis Konecny or Paul Bittner with this pick.

 

[Seachd]

Honestly, a mid-first round pick has limited value.

This is why when it comes down to it, I think they might be better off picking.

 

[Bangers]

Pre-lottery, I would have been all for trading the pick for immediate help.

Now? The team is going to need to accommodate an additional 4 million for McJesus's salary for the next few years, after which (if he lives up to his billing) they could be looking at 8-10 million of cap space being taken up.

The team is going to need to be able to flesch out the roster (partly) with young talent on ELCs; combined with the fact that this draft is supposedly 2003-deep, I wouldn't want the team to trade the pick unless they are getting a 'heavy' return.

 

[SK13]

Pre-lottery, I would have been all for trading the pick for immediate help.

Now? The team is going to need to accommodate an additional 4 million for McJesus's salary for the next few years, after which (if he lives up to his billing) they could be looking at 8-10 million of cap space being taken up.

As has been discussed elsewhere, cap space is an absolute non-issue.

It's unlikely that we'll land anyone with more than three years in remaining salary, anyway, so even if it was an issue...

 

[joestevens29]

I'm not for or against moving the pick. I just think we need to look at our options. If the return isn't there for the 1st then allow PC to start building his prospect pool.

 

[Noeller]

I think most are in agreement that we pretty desperately need a legit Top 2 D and a legit starting G before next season. That pick would have to be combined with a current roster player in a deal for one of those needs. In my mind, anyhow, that seems like the most logical outcome.

 

[dustrock]

I like Roy or Kylington in that spot, though I think that pick is pretty much certain to be traded.

This 100%. Although Roy is RHD, and that's a big bonus for me.

I was all over getting Hanifin and then picking best forward (Harkins, Konecny, Svechnikov) at #16, but I think getting McDavid, now we've got a very good shot at getting a good d-man prospect.

And I think it's very possible Marincin could move on, and I'm not convinced any of the AHL d-men are long-term NHLers.

 

[Blue Bullet]

New post on my blog. This one is about analyzing d-men picked in the top 10 between 1998-2014

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/27/analyzing-d-men-top-10-picks-1998-2014/

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Trade it in a deal for a defenseman.

 

[Oilfan2]

I'm not for or against moving the pick. I just think we need to look at our options. If the return isn't there for the 1st then allow PC to start building his prospect pool.

I agree with you.

Imo, it wouldn't make sense to trade the pick simply to trade it, especially if it isn't for a top 2 D or top goalie.

The Oil, with competent management in place, should be able to pick up a couple of top 4 D through FA and/or by using the 2nd/3rd picks with prospects. If they do that and add, say, a Niemi for basically nothing, that allows them to use the 15/16th pick, along with another asset (JSchultz??) for a top 2 D. I wouldn't be looking at trading any of the top 6 or Drai/Nurse until we see what we have when we add McDavid. These moves, plus adding a couple of players with grit to replace Purcell and Roy, would be enough to allow a proper evaluation of their needs. Perhaps that's all they need (along with a competent coach) to be competitive without giving up great assets.
Unlike some folks, I think the 1st(15/16) is actually a very valuable commodity, especially in this deep a draft. Perhaps we don't realize it because we have the 1st OA as well?
Unless it's for a top 2 D, like I mentioned, or a good starting goalie, I'd make the pick.

 

[LTIR]

See what is available at that pick. A lot can happen at draft..

One of projected top ~10\11 (Provorov, Werenski, Zacha, Barzal, Rantanen, Crouse) might fall to that pick. If not one of Roy, Kylington, Svechnikov, Meier will surely be there.

 

[CornKicker]

New post on my blog. This one is about analyzing d-men picked in the top 10 between 1998-2014

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/27/analyzing-d-men-top-10-picks-1998-2014/

i know you are always busy but im curious if you have any data to show the players ranked top 10 that fell into the late teens.

 

[McLotto 97]

As has been discussed elsewhere, cap space is an absolute non-issue.

It's unlikely that we'll land anyone with more than three years in remaining salary, anyway, so even if it was an issue...

How is cap space not an issue?

Hall 6- RNH -6 Ebs 6. 18
Poo 4 McDavid 3.75 yak 2.5 10.25
?? Lander 1.25 Purcell 4.5. 6.75 + I guy
Klink .725 Gordon 3 Hendricks 1.85. 5.75
Gazdic .85
Forwards 41.6 million on forwards

Nik 4.5 Fayne 4
OK .833 JS 3.675
?? ??
Ference 3.75
Defence 16.76 plus 2 to sign

Goal 2.3

Total 60.66 with 2 dmen and 1 top 9 forward and #1 goalie to sign. All for 8 to 11 million depending on cap

 

[Oilfan2]

How is cap space not an issue?

Hall 6- RNH -6 Ebs 6. 18
Poo 4 McDavid 3.75 yak 2.5 10.25
?? Lander 1.25 Purcell 4.5. 6.75 + I guy
Klink .725 Gordon 3 Hendricks 1.85. 5.75
Gazdic .85
Forwards 41.6 million on forwards

Nik 4.5 Fayne 4
OK .833 JS 3.675
?? ??
Ference 3.75
Defence 16.76 plus 2 to sign

Goal 2.3

Total 60.66 with 2 dmen and 1 top 9 forward and #1 goalie to sign. All for 8 to 11 million depending on cap

You added an extra 1M on the 3rd line plus a little on D so I think it`s closer to 59.4.

Your point does stand that cap is an issue.

However, I think competent management can make it work. May have to buy out Purcell and/or Nikitin to save that 3-6M but it can be done.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Svechnikov or Jeremy Roy if you guys had to choose?

Svechnikov. He has huge upside, but boom/bust potential. Could be Malkin. Could be Alexei Mikhnov.

 

[SK13]

How is cap space not an issue?

Hall 6- RNH -6 Ebs 6. 18
Poo 4 McDavid 3.75 yak 2.5 10.25
?? Lander 1.25 Purcell 4.5. 6.75 + I guy
Klink .725 Gordon 3 Hendricks 1.85. 5.75
Gazdic .85
Forwards 41.6 million on forwards

Nik 4.5 Fayne 4
OK .833 JS 3.675
?? ??
Ference 3.75
Defence 16.76 plus 2 to sign

Goal 2.3

Total 60.66 with 2 dmen and 1 top 9 forward and #1 goalie to sign. All for 8 to 11 million depending on cap

Your math is off for starters. You're inflating Lander and Fayne's cap hits, and Justin Schultz isn't signed yet (and I'd say far from a lock to be signed).

The number currently sits at 54.8M against a 71.5M dollar cap for 13 forwards, 4 defenseman and 1 goaltender. That includes about 2.8 million in bonuses, which the Oilers can exceed if they choose to (and won't unless it's the difference between a huge get and nothing).

They have 17 million in cap space for 4 roster holes, and one of them is a 7D (they will not play Ference at 7D, retire that fantasy).

On top of that, the Oilers have escapable salary. A Nikitin buyout clears 3 million in cap space for the coming year. They have the option to trade Purcell, who at one year left and with the possibility of salary retention, I think would be quite easy.

There is room for three significant contracts without moving a single roster player out, and ways to clear even more space if need be. There is also no long term cap crunch. In July of 2018, the Oilers have only 25 million dollars worth of players signed: Eberle, Hall, RNH, Pouliot and Fayne, and three of those contracts expire the next summer. Also understand the the cap is tied to league revenues and there's a significant chance that there are two more teams in the league at that point.

 

[workedforme]

I have no problem trading the pick if it's in a package for a top 2 dman, but barring that I'm also ok with keeping the pick. We're going to be feeling the cap crunch once McDavid's ELC is up and at that point having a deep-ish prospect pool will help a lot. If we can swing a deal or two similar to the NYI last year with Boychuk and Leddy then I'm all for it, but otherwise I think the season after next is when we should be swinging for the fences.

 

[Zaddy]

Svechnikov or Jeremy Roy if you guys had to choose?

Roy, but I have questionmarks about both guys. I don't feel like there's going to be a slam-dunk choice at 15/16, which is why I'd much prefer trading the pick. Even if it's just for a later 1st round pick and another 2nd. There's plenty of "homerun" guys I'd take a swing at in the 25-55 range. The more picks you have there the bigger the chance you get a star.

A couple of guys I really like is Filip Chlapik and Vince Dunn. I see their ceiling as being Krejci and Keith. Both who, ironically, also were picked in the 2nd round. Two other guys I like is Denis Guryanov, who impressed me greatly at the U18's, and Daniel Sprong. Then there's tons of other guys in that range as well that is of interest in Christian Fischer, Jack Roslovic, Nicolas Meloche, Joel Eriksson Ek, Noah Juulsen...I could go on for days.

So...yeah, I think if we can't trade the pick for immediate help I rather just trade down and accumulate as many picks in that 25-55 range as possible.