Prospect Info: 2015 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #11

[NotSince67*]

Being close to the NHL doesn't give a prospect much value if they're just going to be a bottom pair/bottom line guy. We've shown that we can consistently fill bottom line and bottom pairing with free agents, so all the prospect offer is meager (<500k) cap savings for a couple of years.

IMO it does. The end goal of a draft is to produce NHLers. While people on the boards think the goal of the draft is to produce stars that's really not it. Once you have a guy who's an NHLer how gooed of an NHLer he becomes is the only question. Being far away pretty much makes you a hope and a prayer outside of being a true blue-chipper.

To me, a lot of the guys people seem to like in Bracco, Johnson, Valiev, Timoshev, these guys are highly unlikely to become NHLers. Compared to guys who are pretty much there, say Carrick or Leivo, it's significant to me.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

IMO it does. The end goal of a draft is to produce NHLers. While people on the boards think the goal of the draft is to produce stars that's really not it. Once you have a guy who's an NHLer how gooed of an NHLer he becomes is the only question. Being far away pretty much makes you a hope and a prayer outside of being a true blue-chipper.

To me, a lot of the guys people seem to like in Bracco, Johnson, Valiev, Timoshev, these guys are highly unlikely to become NHLers. Compared to guys who are pretty much there, say Carrick or Leivo, it's significant to me.

Is that you Burkie ?

 

[NotSince67*]

Our prospect pool has taken HUGE steps forwards in the past two years

I can't believe we have a prospect better than Nylander

IMO Nylander is #1, but the real proof is, if you consider Kapinen to be a blue-chipper (and I guess Gauthier too, but that's much more of a stretch) there's 2-4 blue chip prospects in this group which has not happened for the Leafs in a really long time.

The trio of Rielly, Marner and Nylander are by far the three best string of prospects to enter out system in easily decades.

 

[Zybalto]

I've got a feeling it's Loov vs. Valiev next go round.

 

[Ovate]

IMO it does. The end goal of a draft is to produce NHLers. While people on the boards think the goal of the draft is to produce stars that's really not it. Once you have a guy who's an NHLer how gooed of an NHLer he becomes is the only question. Being far away pretty much makes you a hope and a prayer outside of being a true blue-chipper.

To me, a lot of the guys people seem to like in Bracco, Johnson, Valiev, Timoshev, these guys are highly unlikely to become NHLers. Compared to guys who are pretty much there, say Carrick or Leivo, it's significant to me.

The end goal of the draft is NOT to produce NHLers. It's to become a better team in the future.

The value of a draft pick is in how much better it becomes than a free agent on the same contract would be. A guy like Bracco might have a 1/10 (random number) chance of making the NHL, but if he does make it he'll be considerably better than an FA on a similar contract. A guy like Carrick might have a 3/4 (also random number) chance of making the NHL, but if he does make it he's no better than a free agent.

1/10 * big value difference > 3/4 * tiny/no value difference

 

[NotSince67*]

The end goal of the draft is NOT to produce NHLers. It's to become a better team in the future.

The value of a draft pick is in how much better it becomes than a free agent on the same contract would be. A guy like Bracco might have a 1/10 (random number) chance of making the NHL, but if he does make it he'll be considerably better than an FA on a similar contract. A guy like Carrick might have a 3/4 (also random number) chance of making the NHL, but if he does make it he's no better than a free agent.

1/10 * big value difference > 3/4 * tiny/no value difference

Pretty much the whole point of your post is the point of the draft is to acquire players you wouldn't otherwise be able to add through free agency. But that seems to suggest the best draft strategy is to swing for the fences through all 7 rounds, which if you ask me is a terrible way to draft.

You end up having a boatload of late round picks who essentially are on the level of not being up to snuff for the AHL and a boatload who are going to flop in the the AHL. Essentially, you sit waiting to turn one pick every couple years into a player at the NHL level while entirely relying on overpaying on the FA market to re-stock your lineup. Generally you'll have minimal depth into the minors for injuries and a farm team that isn't competitive.

Not to mention a lot of these guys STILL don't pan out anyways. Kadri from being a blue-chip high potential pick has become a 2nd/3rd line centre. Pretty much, the longer you follow prospects the more you come to realize how often and how much even the most promising prospects tend to fall short of their perceived potential.

Long and short of it is the swing and miss strategy on high-potential boom and bust players is great in a EA Sports environment but it simply isn't sustainable. An organization needs depth and realistically as you get into later rounds when the liklihood of getting an NHL player is greatly diminished, just pulling an NHL player is a huge advantage. Having a constant influx of cheap cost effective players who are waiver eligible who play in the minors is a huge advantage. Having 3rd and 4th liners who haven't hit their UFA years and are cheap is a huge advantage. Having a competitive farm team for players to develop in is also a huge advantage.

So pretty much, no, drafting is reliant on hitting and producing NHL players.

 

[Audacious416]

We really need to add Lindgren. HUGE upside.

I second Lindgren. How does this thing work? Lindgren had more people vouching for him in the last thread than anyone else but he wasn't added.

 

[TMLife*]

Harrington since 4 or 5 don't remember

 

[HarryLime]

 

[Looney Toonies]

Been voting Harrington for the last couple, Been a fan of his for a while. Super excited to watch his development this season.

 

[ChrisCall]

Votin for the loov.

 

[Lauro]

I've got a feeling it's Loov vs. Valiev next go round.

I'd say Loov vs. Valiev vs. Leivo vs. Bibeau.

 

[A1LeafNation]

If we split the top 20, we still have a decent top 10 in both groups:

Marner Kapanen Gauthier Harrington Johnson Leivo Granberg Finn Loov Varhaeghe

Nylander Brown Percy Leipsic Dermott Bracco Bibeau Hyman Valiev Korostelev

 

[diceman934]

Harrington since 4 or 5 don't remember

Harrington since 4 for me....next for me is Gibson...

 

[carko32]

Please add Lindgren.

Voted for Harrington, even though he's very close with Loov and Valiev, I can see all of them become #3D.

 

[tooncesmeow]

IMO Nylander is #1, but the real proof is, if you consider Kapinen to be a blue-chipper (and I guess Gauthier too, but that's much more of a stretch) there's 2-4 blue chip prospects in this group which has not happened for the Leafs in a really long time.

The trio of Rielly, Marner and Nylander are by far the three best string of prospects to enter out system in easily decades.

Well he's rated 7.5, and most prospects on hockeysfuture that end up having an "NHL shot" are guys in the 7.0 range and thats usually guys with bottom 9/bottom 4 potential.

I think most people think he's on his way to being an NHLer, he has the tools and very good ones and he looks magical on the ice but its a question of his health and his mental strength.

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

Probably Harrington here.


We're really underrating Zach Hyman. He scored 54 points for Michigan last season and has size. IMO, he should be in the top 10.

 

[SprDaVE]

Probably Harrington here.


We're really underrating Zach Hyman. He scored 54 points for Michigan last season and has size. IMO, he should be in the top 10.

...as a senior playing playing with Larkin. He put up more points in his senior year then his total 3 years prior.

He's a decent prospect of course but his production isn't something to go on if you want to make a case for him to be in the top 10.

 

[Joey Hoser]

IMO it does. The end goal of a draft is to produce NHLers. While people on the boards think the goal of the draft is to produce stars that's really not it. Once you have a guy who's an NHLer how gooed of an NHLer he becomes is the only question. Being far away pretty much makes you a hope and a prayer outside of being a true blue-chipper.

To me, a lot of the guys people seem to like in Bracco, Johnson, Valiev, Timoshev, these guys are highly unlikely to become NHLers. Compared to guys who are pretty much there, say Carrick or Leivo, it's significant to me.

I don't buy that at all. The goal of the draft is to improve your team, and acquire the means to make the difference. It is not to pick up replaceable depth players. There are plenty of viable mechanisms for acquiring those.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

...as a senior playing playing with Larkin. He put up more points in his senior year then his total 3 years prior.

He's a decent prospect of course but his production isn't something to go on if you want to make a case for him to be in the top 10.

He can be an excellent glue guy, though. We do need a few of those Kulemin-like wingers.

 

[shelf]

Pretty much the whole point of your post is the point of the draft is to acquire players you wouldn't otherwise be able to add through free agency. But that seems to suggest the best draft strategy is to swing for the fences through all 7 rounds, which if you ask me is a terrible way to draft.

You end up having a boatload of late round picks who essentially are on the level of not being up to snuff for the AHL and a boatload who are going to flop in the the AHL. Essentially, you sit waiting to turn one pick every couple years into a player at the NHL level while entirely relying on overpaying on the FA market to re-stock your lineup. Generally you'll have minimal depth into the minors for injuries and a farm team that isn't competitive.

Not to mention a lot of these guys STILL don't pan out anyways. Kadri from being a blue-chip high potential pick has become a 2nd/3rd line centre. Pretty much, the longer you follow prospects the more you come to realize how often and how much even the most promising prospects tend to fall short of their perceived potential.

Long and short of it is the swing and miss strategy on high-potential boom and bust players is great in a EA Sports environment but it simply isn't sustainable. An organization needs depth and realistically as you get into later rounds when the liklihood of getting an NHL player is greatly diminished, just pulling an NHL player is a huge advantage. Having a constant influx of cheap cost effective players who are waiver eligible who play in the minors is a huge advantage. Having 3rd and 4th liners who haven't hit their UFA years and are cheap is a huge advantage. Having a competitive farm team for players to develop in is also a huge advantage.

So pretty much, no, drafting is reliant on hitting and producing NHL players.

Seems to me that its super easy to acquire these guys via free agency. Panik, Matthias, Winnik, Raymond, Santorelli, Smith, Booth, Paranteau, Arcobello, Hunwick, Brennan, Abbott, Froese, Mikkelson, Bodie, Hamilton, Aucoin, Zigomanis, Kostka, Smithson, Bailey, Erixon, Hyman.

These guys are all examples of guys that were acquired for nothing over the past couple years and are either solid 3rd/4th line players or who have helped make the Marlies a more competitive team.

 

[Gamble9]

Harrington

 

[Morgs]

Victor (Kronwall) Loov.

But Harrington is a good choice too.

 

[Myke]

4/5 isn't bad for the Top 5.

http://thehockeywriters.com/updated-the-toronto-maple-leafs-top-5-prospects/

 

[Pholus]

You end up having a boatload of late round picks who essentially are on the level of not being up to snuff for the AHL and a boatload who are going to flop in the the AHL. Essentially, you sit waiting to turn one pick every couple years into a player at the NHL level while entirely relying on overpaying on the FA market to re-stock your lineup. Generally you'll have minimal depth into the minors for injuries and a farm team that isn't competitive.

Whoa there, just had a flashback to exactly what our prospect situation was like under Burke. You remember, when we weren't drafting for skill but instead picked up big physical guys who were 'safe' picks to make the NHL?