Slighty on topic. My theory on the drfat is that its mostly pure luck. Probably 90% of the talent is homogenous in terms of chances of turning out. No scout really knows. If they did, a team would have continued, sustained success for past 10 years. We havent seen that ever. Some teams have more hits, some more misses, but no team runs the table. 10% is for guys you know wont work out (Abneys of the world)
Most teams in the NHL have a guy that came out from second round or after and is a top pairing or top line guy. Brodie/Tanev/Enstrom/Subban/Weber/Keith/Hamonic/Faulk/Parayko/Gohstibhere/Giorando/Letang/Braun/Josi etc etc etc
Although not all same talent level or same spot in draft, all have become really, really good players from after the 2nd round. Im going to chalk them up to luck (there is development impacts, but again, none really were developed in a system totally different then ours currently)
Oilers in the past (2008-2011ish) have been drafting mainly from the 10% of players (with some exceptions) with no upside and bad picks from the get go, so we never had a chance for one of the above guys. However, in the past 4-5 years weve been drafting from the 90% and atleast put our hat in the ring and have a shot at landing a "steal"
Davidson looks like hell be a good one, but not amongst those noteable steals. But I think we are due for a big time steal. We havent had one in past 10 years and I think our time is due
Im not sure which of Paigin/Bear/Jones/Brossoit (not our pick but include him anyway)/Laleggia/Khaira etc etc will do it. Probably leaning to first 3 or 4 guys having the best shot to contain that one steal
Maybe its over-optimistic. But I think we are due for a big steal, no matter the regime player was drafted and developed by
If Paigin is that guy, thatd be huge